Boone

The lack of strikeouts was worrisome but all things--especially the fact that he rarely threw his slider--point to him improving in that regard. What makes me so excited about Stewart is that he displayed very good control (2.84 BB/9) and a good ground ball tendency (1.77 GO/AO) at such a young age. If he can maintain that while increasing his strikeout rate--like most of us expect--then he will be an absolute stud.

O'Rourke deserves to start the year with the Twins as much, if not more, than anyone we have in the minors. 41 strikeouts against just 4 walks in 20.1 IP against lefties for New Britain last year is just way too good. Being a LOOGY isn't glamorous but it's an important role in the bullpen. I have a hard time believing there's anyone in the Twins organization who could do that better than O'Rourke right now.

After stealing another base last night, Jorge Polanco has 7 SB (in 8 attempts for a .875 success rate) in 25 games for New Britain, which puts him on pace for about 50 steals over 162 games. This is despite limited chances as a result of his .288 OBP. For a guy who was 4-8 stealing bases in 115 games for Cedar Rapids last year and who went just 10-18 for Fort Myers earlier in the season this is rather shocking. Does anyone have any idea what's going on with this and if we can expect Polanco to be a legitimate base stealing threat going forward? Base stealing could really round out his game so I'm hoping that this isn't a fluke. Also, bit of a tangent, but I think it's worth pointing out Niko Goodrum's base stealing success this season: his 34 SB lead the Florida State League and only one player with over 25 steals has been caught fewer times than Goodrum's 3 (that would be Dalton Pompey, who has been caught 5 times in 13 attempts in AA). After stealing 14 bases in 117 games across two seasons in Elizabethton (78%), Goodrum went 20-24 in 102 games last season (83%) and sits at 34-37 in 112 games (92%) this year.

You forgot Rosario getting suspended for the first half and going back to the outfield, plus some But the amazing thing about all this, which goes to show how good our farm system is, is that it's still been a good year. Berrios has dominated and is now a legit top-50 prospect. Polanco has had another good year, while playing SS (BA called him best defender at that position in FSL), and will probably be a top-100 guy Thorpe skipped the Appy League and, after a few shaky starts has been great. We've had guys come out of nowhere to become legit prospects: Chih Wei Hu and Sean Gilmartin to name a few Our 2014 draft picks have been impressive, namely Gordon and Burdi (plus Reed and Batts) Throw in the likes of Vargas, Rogers, Duffey, Oliveros, Turner, Mejia, Michael, and many more and the Twins farm system is significantly deeper than it was a year ago. Also, getting demoted might might be the best thing that has ever happened to Aaron Hicks.

In case people haven't noticed, Josmil Pinto has been raking in AAA. In 43 games, he's hitting .300/.405/.525 (.930 OPS). More importantly, after displaying impressive excellent plate discipline to go along with solid pop in AA a year ago, Pinto has improved in both of those areas despite playing against tougher competition: his BB% has ticked up from 14.1% to 14.2%, while his strikeout rate has dropped from 15.7% to 13.7% (causing his BB:K ratio to increase from .90 to 1.04) and his ISO has increased dramatically from .174 to .225. Not only is this solid improvement, but he's been flat-out spectacular in AAA. Consider this: in 47 games in AAA, Pinto has more walks (27) and almost as many extra-base hits (23) as he does strikeouts (26). I don't know what to say about that other than it's really impressive. Combine this with the fact that Pinto was solid offensively in his time with the Twins (107 wRC+ despite a .245 BABIP) and I don't think it can be denied that Pinto is more than ready offensively for the major leagues. The question of course, then comes down to whether or not he is ready to play catcher every day. His defensive struggles were a major reason why he was sent down to AAA (maybe the main reason) and so he will have to prove that he can handle the position before he is promoted. Let's hope he's nearly there.

Pressly's performance in AAA makes me optimistic that he can be a quality reliever. In 60.1 IP, he posted 9.4 K/9 (24.6%) and 3.1 BB/9 (8.2%) for a 3.0 K/BB ratio. Good, but not spectacular numbers, but there are two additional reasons for my optimism. However, Pressly's numbers improved significantly over the course of the season. After a mediocre April, in which he posted 10 K's against 10 BB's in 12.1 IP, Pressly recorded 53 K's (9.9 K/9) against 11BB's (2.1 BB/9) in 48 IP, for a K:BB ratio of nearly 5. While some might accuse me of "cherry picking" my sample, I don't think dropping the first month is the end of the world. However, if you're looking for further evidence of his improvement, consider his numbers over 3 rolling two month periods: Period IP K/9 BB/9 K:BB April + May 30 7.8 3.3 2.4 May + June 34 9.5 2.4 4.0 June + July 30.1 11.0 3.0 3.7 Hopefully Pressly can figure things out over the next month and a half and begin to translate his success in AAA to the major league level. If he does, he should be a solid, and cheap, reliever for the next few years.

While you are right that a high K-rate alone isn't everything, it is important to note that neither Arcia nor Vargas are high-strikeout players. Arcia's strikeout rate in A+ and AA was 19.7 and 20.1%, respectively, while Vargas struck out at a 20.2% rate in A+ and a 16.8% rate in AA. As a result, striking out at roughly a 30% rate in the major leagues isn't business as usual for Arcia and Vargas; to me at least, it's a signal that they might be in over their heads.

Shortstop appears to be the weakest position in the Twins organization. Danny Santana is the closest legitimate SS prospect to the majors. But with a .691 OPS this season and 29 errors already (Alexei Ramirez leads all shortstops with 21), does Santana have a legitimate chance to be a franchise shortstop? A closer look gives reasons for optimism.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hitting Here are Santana’s numbers the last 3 seasons: [TABLE=width: 433] Year PA Level BB% K% BB/K ISO OPS 2011 409 A 6.1 24 0.26 0.126 0.676 2012 547 A+ 5.3 14.1 0.38 0.124 0.739 2013 446 AA 3.9 16.3 0.24 0.086 0.691 [/TABLE] Santana took a huge step forward in 2012, dropping his K rate significantly (leading to a jump in his BB/K ratio) which allowed him to increase his OPS by 60 points and raise his average from .249 to .286. He also maintained solid power for a SS despite moving to the Florida State League. Download attachment: nh-a10-danny-santana-front.jpg However, Santana has regressed this season. He has kept his Ks down, allowing him to maintain his .286 batting average, but his walks have dropped to a minuscule level and his power has disappeared. As a result, his BB/K ratio and OPS have returned to 2011 levels. That being said, Santana has progressed throughout the season, increasing his walks each month (2 in April, 3 in May, 4 in June, 9 in July). In fact, his 9 walks so far in July are equal to the amount as he had in the first 3 seasons of the month combined. It turns out that Santana is no stranger to mid-season improvements in the month of July. Check out these splits: [TABLE=width: 395] Split PA Level BB% K% BB/K April-June 2011 258 A 5.0% 22.5% 0.224 Post- July 2011 151 A 7.9% 19.9% 0.400 April-June 2012 299 A+ 4.7% 16.7% 0.280 Post-July 2012 250 A+ 6.0% 11.2% 0.536 April-June 2013 335 AA 2.7% 15.2% 0.176 Post-July 2013 166 AA 6.0% 18.1% 0.300 [/TABLE] This is rather astonishing. In each of the past 3 seasons, Santana has made a significant improvement in his BB/K ratio starting in July. While his month of July might prove to be an aberration, due to this pattern the past 2 seasons I think it represents a legitimate progression in his plate discipline. If that is the case, 2012 could actually represent a step forward for Santana and he should be ready for AAA at the start of next season. Basestealing Danny Santana has great speed, but he has always struggled stealing bases. In fact, between 2010 and 2012, Santana never posted as SB% higher than 65%, and it dropped every year. However, Santana has made a big step forward in his basestealing this season: [TABLE=width: 256] Year SB CS SB% 2010 15 8 65% 2011 24 15 62% 2012 17 11 61% 2013 23 9 72% [/TABLE] So when did Santana turn a corner stealing bases? The answer, ironically, appears to be during July of 2012. Take a look: [TABLE=width: 335] Split SB CS SB% SB/162G 2011 24 15 62% 37 April-June 2012 9 7 56% 21 Post-July 2012 8 3 73% 24 2013 23 9 72% 33 July 2012-present 31 12 72% 30 [/TABLE] Over the past year or so, Santana has looked like a 30SB 70+% guy. Over the past 3 years, just 8 SS have done that even once. And in case you’re wondering, Santana has continued that “every year I improve in July thing”: 9-10 SB in 24 games (68SB/162G). Fielding However, defense might be the most important factor for Santana going forward; as jdotmcmahon pointed out a few days ago, great defense alone has made Florimon a valuable player (http://twinsdaily.co....Pedro-Florimon). Santana has the speed and arm necessary to play short, but he has always been error prone: [TABLE=width: 172] Year G E FLD% 2011 78 27 0.924 2012 85 18 0.95 2013 107 29 0.944 [/TABLE] Errors and fielding percentage don’t tell the whole story, but it’s the best we have for minor league players. And as it turns out, Santana’s best fielding percentage of 95% would make him the worst shortstop in all of baseball. To make matters worse, Santana’s fielding percentage has dropped this season so much so that many are questioning whether or not he can stick at short. However, Santana’s poor fielding numbers this season are the result of a dreadful start to the year: [TABLE=width: 152] Split E FLD% Games 1-43 17 0.919 Games 44-107 12 0.961 [/TABLE] Disclaimer: the FLD% is based off of Santana season’s average of 4.86 chances per game. If we look at the Santana’s past 53 games (which accounts for 57% of his games at SS), he has improved his FLD% from last year’s .950 to .961. Once again, a step in the right direction. More importantly, Santana was recently named by Baseball America as the best defensive shortstop in AA. Many people on Twins Daily, including myself, have doubted whether or not he deserved such recognition. However, what we should take away from this is that BA believes Santana should be able to stick at shortstop in the majors. This praise, combined with Santana’s improving fielding percentage, makes me optimistic that he can be an above-average defensive shortstop. Conclusion Santana’s low K-rate should allow him to consistently hit in the .280-.285 range, which, combined with his basestealing, would be great for a SS. However, due to his lack of power (which has taken a turn for the worse this season), Santana will have to draw walks in order to post a quality OPS. He has increased his BB-rate during the second half of each of the last three seasons. If he can translate that success to the start of next year and continue to build on it, Santana could establish himself as a solid hitting SS at the major league level. Although Santana’s season numbers for 2013 are discouraging, he has shown signs of progression. Combined with Santana’s history of mid-season improvement, there is reason for optimism. If Santana can continue to progress as a hitter, fielder, and basestealer, he should be ready for AAA come next April, and might be starting on Opening Day in 2015, when he’ll be 24 years old all year. That will give Santana the chance to establish himself as the Twins’ regular shortstop, although several other prospects could come nipping at his heels in the near future (Goodrum, Polanco, Levi Michael, Mejia, and a potential 2014 1st round pick). Click here to view the article

Heading into the 2013 season, there were five 2B prospects that were generally considered to be among the top 100 in baseball: Jedd Gyorko of the San Diego Padres, Nick Franklin of the Seattle Mariners, Kolten Wong of the St. Louis Cardinals, Jonathan Schoop of the Baltimore Orioles, and Delino DeShields Jr. of the Houston Astros. My question is this: how does Eddie Rosario stack-up statistically against these more heavily hyped prospects?[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Rankings Baseball America Jedd Gyorko (2B)- 71 Nick Franklin (SS/2B)- 79 Kolten Wong (2B)- 84 Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 99 Jonathan Schoop- NR Eddie Rosario- NRBaseball Prospectus Nick Franklin (2B)- 72 Jonathan Schoop (2B)- 80 Jedd Gyorko (3B)- 84 Kolten Wong (2B)- 90 Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 101 Eddie Rosario- NRSickels Jedd Gyorko (2B/3B)- 38 Nick Franklin (SS)- 40 Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 77 Kolten Wong (2B)- 85 Jonathan Schoop (INF)- 102Fangraphs Delino DeShields Jr. (2B)- 52 Jonathan Schoop (INF)- 57 Kolten Wong (2B)- 58 Jedd Gyorko (2B/3B)- 67 Nick Franklin (SS)- 74 Eddie Rosario (2B)- 79Stats A Kolten Wong: Age 20 47 games .335/.401/.510 .911 OPS Johnathon Schoop: Age 19 51 games .316/.376/.514 .890 OPS Nick Franklin: Age 19 129 games .281/.351/.485 .837 OPS Eddie Rosario: Age 20 95 games .296/.345/.490 .835 OPS Jedd Gyorko: Age 21 42 games, .284/.366/.389 .755 OPS Delino DeShields Jr: Age 18,19 230 games .257/.352/.378 .731 OPSA+ Gyorko: Age 22 81 games .365/.429/.638 1.068 OPS Rosario: Age 21 52 games .329/.377/.527 .903 OPS Franklin: Age 20 64 games .275/.356/.411 .767 OPS DeShields: Age 19,20 95 games .276/.375/.395 .769 OPS Schoop: Age 19 77 games .271/.329/.375 .704 OPS Wong: DNPAA Franklin: Age 20,21 78 games .323/.375/.497 .871 OPS Gyorko: Age 22,23 93 games .279/.357/.429 .786 OPS Rosario: Age 21 28 games .290/.356/.421 .776 OPS Wong: Age 21 126 games .287/.348/.405 .754 OPS Schoop: Age 20 124 games .245/.324/.386 .710 OPSAAA Gyorko: Age 23 92 games .328/.380/.588 .968 OPS Wong: Age 22 83 games .298/.360/.455 .815 OPS Franklin: Age 21,22 103 games .271/.358/.435 .793 OPS Schoop: Age 21 34 games .268/.331/.386 .717 OPS A Few Caveats Kolten Wong: skipped A+, making his .754 OPS at AA quite impressive. Drafted by the Twins out of high school. Delino Deshields: in his 2nd year of A ball, posted a .839 OPS in 111 games (would have placed him 3rd). Speed is a significant part of his value, stole 101 bases in 2012. Conclusion: Although Rosario has always been a year or two older per level than Schoop and DeShields, he has been a significantly better hitter. In this situation I would take Rosario’s vastly superior production over Schoop's and DeShields’s relative youth. This is especially true with Schoop, who despite being a 21 year old in AAA, failed to post an OPS over .710 in A+ or AA. Gyorko, Franklin, and Wong, on the other hand, have produced at a similar rate to Rosario. Here are their stats combined for A, A+, and AA: Gyorko: Ages 21-23 .315/.388/.505 .894 OPS Rosario: Ages 20-21 .305/.355/.490 .845 OPS Franklin: Ages 19-21 .291/.357/.470 .827 OPS Wong: Ages 20-21 .300/.362/.434 .796 OPSThis shows Rosario in a very positive light. He has out-produced Franklin and Wong, while being the same age upon reaching AA, and although Gyorko has posted better numbers (driven by a higher walk-rate), he has done so while being much older than any of the other prospects. While this information does not prove that Rosario is the best 2B prospect in baseball—I have not considered important factors such as defense, speed, or what their ceiling looks like going forward—it does suggest that he has been just as productive in the batter’s box, if not more so, than any other 2B prospect. Download attachment: eddie-rosario.jpg Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Kepler_Max_Walking_US_720.jpg Here are three Minnesota Twins prospects (all are 1.7 years younger than the average player in their respective leagues, according to Baseball Reference) who, at first glance, appear to be struggling so far in 2014. A closer examination, however, tells a different story: Taylor Rogers (AA SP) 32.2 IP in 8 GS The bad: 5.36 ERA 1.53 WHIPWhy he’s better than his numbers:The obvious indicator is his 3.50 FIP, almost 2 full runs lower than his ERA; in fact, this difference is the highest in the Eastern League amongst qualified pitchers. Let’s take a closer look: Rogers is striking out 8.66 per 9 innings (21.3% of plate appearances) and walking just 2.27 per 9 (5.6% of PA), good for a stellar 3.82 K/BB, which ranks him 8th in the Eastern League amongst qualified pitchers. This is a huge step forward from a season ago, when Rogers posted just 5.72 K/9 (15.7%) with a 2.59 K/BB. Furthermore, Rogers continues to keep the ball on the ground, posting an excellent 1.61 GO/AO ratio. The cause of Rogers’ struggles is two-fold: an extremely high BABIP and a poor strand-rate. Rogers has a .377 BABIP, which is the worst in the EL amongst qualified pitchers, and his strand rate of 61.5% is the 8th worst amongst qualified pitchers. How optimistic should we be? Very. Although I wouldn’t expect Rogers to continue to strike out close to a batter per inning, if he continues to induce ground balls at a high rate and limit walks—which I expect him to do—he should have a solid year. And if his increased strikeout rate is here to stay—even if it settles around 7 K/9—then Rogers could become a very intriguing prospect. If his BABIP and strand rate settle down soon, Rogers should merit a mid-season call-up to AAA. Adrian Salcedo (AA RP) 22 IP in 15 relief appearances for New Britain The bad: 7.77 ERA 1.86 WHIPWhy he’s better than his numbers:Similar to Rogers, Salcedo’s FIP is an immediate indicator of bad luck; he has a FIP of 2.43 for the season, over 5 runs lower than his ERA (this is a staggering figure, as the next highest difference between ERA and FIP for an Eastern League pitcher with at least 20 IP is 3.42, compared to Salcedo’s 5.34). Let’s take a closer look at Salcedo’s numbers: Salcedo is striking out a whopping 12.27 batters per 9 innings (27.5% of PAs) and is walking just 3.27 (7.3%), good for an excellent 3.75 K/BB ratio. Although he is walking more batters than a year ago, the large increase in strikeouts (up from 8.33 K/9) has led to a slight improvement in his K/BB ratio (up from 3.6 last season). Furthermore, Salcedo has posted an excellent 2.08 GO/AO ratio, even better than the 1.68 GO/AO from a year ago. The cause of Salcedo’s struggles, similar to those of Rogers, is a high BABIP and a lower strand-rate. Salcedo’s BABIP of .464 is the highest in the EL amongst pitchers with at least 20 IP (the next closest is just .400) and his strand rate is just 51.7%, meaning roughly half of all batters that reach base score; this is the 4th worst rate in the Eastern League amongst pitchers with 20 IP. How optimistic should we be? Very. Salcedo is establishing himself as a high-K, low-BB, ground-ball inducing relief pitcher. What more can you ask for? Once his BABIP comes back to Earth, which it will, his strand-rate should increase and his ERA will drop. I expect Salcedo to be another candidate for a mid-season call-up to AAA. It is worth noting that Salcedo was a popular sleeper prospect heading into the 2012 season before injuries limited him to just 30 IP that year. Max Kepler (A+ OF/1B) 35 games (27 at CF) for Fort Myers The bad: .215/.319/.347 for an OPS of .666 Why he’s better than his numbers:Kepler has displayed excellent plate discipline, striking out in just 13.5% of his plate appearances (down from 16.3% last year) and walking in 10.6%, which is the highest rate of his career. The result is a BB/K ratio of .79, which is the 13th best in the league, and a significant improvement from a solid BB/K ratio of .56 from last season. The main cause of Kepler’s struggles is his .236 BABIP, which is the 6th lowest amongst qualified starters. How optimistic should we be? I would be slightly less optimistic about Kepler than Rogers and Salcedo. Yes, his BABIP is incredibly low and should rise. Although this figure is certainly a result of bad luck and therefore should be expected to rise, it could also be a result of some underlying problems for Kepler. First and foremost, it is similar to the .254 BABIP of a year ago. Secondly, his ISO of .130 is much lower than his ISO of .189 from last year, which could indicate that he simply isn’t hitting the ball very hard. On the other hand, the Florida State League is notoriously a pitcher-friendly league, and Kepler’s ISO is actually much better (24% better, to be exact) than the league average of .105. In fact, only one player in the league has a higher ISO and BB/K ratio than Kepler. I’m very high on Kepler—he presents a rare combination of plate discipline, power, and athleticism—but I think a full year in A+ would be good for him. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Tonkin_Michael_Pitching_US_Orig.jpg The upper-levels of the Twins minor league system is stocked with relief pitchers performing at a high level. Here is a quick rundown: Michael Tonkin (AAA, 24)- Tonkin has been arguably the best reliever in the Twins system since the start of 2012. This year in AAA, Tonkin has a 3.08 ERA—nothing special—but his K and BB numbers are excellent: 26 K’s to just four BB’s in 26.1 innings. He’s been even better in this department since the start of June: 18 K’s to one BB in 18.1 IP. Tonkin pitched briefly in the majors both this season and last, where he struggled slightly: in 22.2 IP, he has an ERA of 3.57 to go along with 18 K’s and nine BB’s. AJ Achter (AAA, 25)- This is a guy who has drawn plenty of headlines this year, with good reason. He was promoted to Rochester after 6.2 innings in New Britain, and has since posted a 1.74 ERA in 46.2 IP. His peripherals aren’t staggering—42 K’s and 14 BB’s (8.1 K/9, 3.0 K/BB)—but they are good. It is worth noting, however, that Achter was more dominant early in the season: 24 K: four BB in 25.1 IP in April and May, against 18 K: ten BB in 21.1 IP since the end of May. Ryan Pressly (AAA, 25)- After a poor showing for the Twins in 2013, Pressly might be a bit of a surprise on this list. His overall numbers very good, but not spectacular: 2.88 ERA, 57 K: 19 BB (3.0 K/BB) in 56.1 innings (9.1 K/9). However, he struggled in April and has been excellent since the start of May. In 45 IP since the beginning of May, he has 47 K (9.4 K/9), 9 BB (5.2 K/BB) and a 2.40 ERA. It appears as if the time he spent in the majors led to some major improvement for Pressly, who was never particularly good in the minors. In fact, Pressly is having his best minor league season by far, despite pitching in AAA for the first time. Pressly became a full time reliever in 2012 while pitching in AA and posted just 21 K:10 BB in 27.2 IP. In other words, he’s striking out two more batters per inning while posting a similar BB rate this year. Deolis Guerra (AAA, 25)- Best known for being the only piece from the Johan Santana trade remaining in the Twins system, Guerra missed almost all of 2012 as a result of Tommy John surgery. Strikeouts have never been a problem for Guerra, and that trend has continued this year, as he has struck out 33 in 34.2 IP this year. Walks, however, have been a problem. He has improved slightly this year, walking 11 batters in 34.2 innings (a respectable 2.9 BB/9) after posting 21 BB in 57.1 IP in 2012 (3.3 BB/9); his BB rate has dropped from 8.6% to 7.6%. Guerra is another guy who has been better since the calendar flipped to May: 27 K 8 BB in 26.2 IP. Lester Oliveros (AAA, 26)- another guy who missed almost all of 2013 due to Tommy John surgery. Oliveros started the year in New Britain, where he posted a 0.89 ERA and 36 Ks in 30.1 IP (10.7 K/9); he did, however, walk 14 (4.2 BB/9, 2.57 K:BB). Since his promotion to AAA, Oliveros has eight K, two BB, in 7.1 IP (ERA of 4.91). Furthermore, he has been at his best since the start of June, posting 19 K to just three BB in only 14.2 IP across two levels (but an ERA of 3.07). Ryan O’Rouke (AA, 26)- this guy could probably be a lefty specialist for the Twins right now. Lefties, in thirty six plate appearances against him, have just 3 BB and 25 K. You read that right, 25 strikeouts. That’s 18.75 K/9—he’s striking out the opposing batter in over 60% of plate appearances. He’s also allowed just three hits to lefties: opposing lefty batters are hitting .079/.146/.105 (.252) off him. That’s actually absurd. His dominance of lefties isn’t a new thing: he had 22 K: three BB against lefties last year in 56 plate appearanes, good for a strike out in 40% of plate appearances (Aroldis Chapman struck out opposing hitters in about 43% of plate appearances in 2012 and 2013, which equated to a 15.5 K/9 during that span). What it Means Going Forward I think that most of these players could compete for bullpen positions next spring, if not earlier: they are posting great numbers at upper levels of the minors and are fairly young. Of course relief pitchers don’t make many “Top 100 Prospect Lists,” especially when they’re in their mid-20s. But these players—plus 2014 2nd round pick Nick Burdi—could form the core of a strong—and cheap—bullpen for the next 5 years. Click here to view the article

Very good point-- both Meyer and May are good enough to make up for a slightly higher walk rate. That being said, I would still like to see him improve in that regard. First of all, comparing Pino to Meyer is just silly. Second of all, Meyer's ability to generate ground balls at a high rate is a significant part of what makes him one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. His regression in this department, while not the end of the world, shouldn't be ignored.

A few things: 1) This remains anecdotal evidence from one (or maybe a second) game. 2) No one is doubting Meyer’s raw stuff. It is almost certainly better than all but a few pitchers on the Twins, and probably was last year too. The doubts have always been more related to control (and his walk-rate has increased this year) and consistency. 3) When handling a top prospect like Meyer on a team that is in sell-mode as the trade deadline approaches, we should be much more concerned with what is best for the prospect long term than the team short term. As a result, whether he is better than the current starters for the Twins isn’t overly important.

Tremendous analysis, much better than I could have done. However, anecdotal evidence such as this (looking at two, hand-picked plate appearances out of 430 this year) does not prove that Meyer is ready for the majors.

I think you're forgetting Meyer's career high walk rate (4.17 BB/9, 10.9% of plate appearances) and career low GB/AO ratio (1.20).

Over the past year, Lewis Thorpe has exploded on the scene. An unknown commodity heading into the GCL last season, he was so dominant as a 17 year old that he has appeared on various preseason Twins’ top 10 prospect lists. He has made even more news this year, skipping the Appalachian League and going straight to A ball from extended spring training. However, the Midwest League has not been kind to Thorpe, who has posted a 5.40 ERA with a 31:15 k:bb ratio in 35 innings over 8 GS. Despite these struggles, Thorpe is showing signs of improvement. [B]Moving in the Right Direction [/B]Thorpe's improvement is easily noticed when looking at his monthly splits: June: 4 GS 18 IP 6.50 ERA 1.67 WHIP 7:10 k:bb July: 4 GS 17 IP 4.24 ERA 1.18 WHIP 24:5 k:bb Although Thorpe's ERA has remained high, it is significantly lower than in the month of June. Furthermore, his WHIP has plummeted to a very respectable level. Most importantly, his K:BB has gone from and atrocious .7 to a stellar 4.8. In fact, his K rate 33.3% is higher than that of the league’s leader this season (29%) and his K/BB would be good for second in the league1. A deeper way to examine Thorpe's improvement is to look at rolling four start stretches, which is rarely used when discussing baseball, but is commonly used in finance. The general idea is that this will allow us to get a more detailed look at how Thorpe has improved start to start (how much better was he in start 5 vs. start 1) while at the same time maintaining a larger sample size. In short, this will allow us to see how consistent--or inconsistent—Thorpe’s improvement has been. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Starts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lthough his ERA has moved around a bit, his WHIP, K%, BB%-- and therefore K:BB ratio-- have decreased each period. Furthermore, his opponents' OPS has decreased each time, with one exception. This kind of consistent improvement makes me confident that Thorpe is getting comfortable in A-ball and that his strong performance should continue the rest of the season. Furthermore, it proves that his strong month of July isn’t merely the result of one incredible performance. [B]Going Forward [/B]I will be looking forward to Thorpe’s start tonight, to see if he can continue his run of success. Even if Thorpe is excellent for the rest of the season, I would argue that he should begin 2015 in Cedar Rapids. The reason? His youth. At 4 full years younger than the average pitcher in the league and 11 months younger than Kohl Stewart—the youngest pitcher to be qualified for the ERA title—Thorpe would probably be the youngest pitcher on an opening day roster in the Midwest League next year. In other words, there is no need to push him. However, Thorpe's youth is so extreme that its impact stretches far beyond this usual argument. Thorpe appears to have been on a very strict pitch count: according to the Cedar Rapids Gazette, he is being limited to 75 pitches a night. Furthermore, if Berrios’s age 19 season in Cedar Rapids is any indication, Thorpe probably won't pitch more than 120 innings next year2. Not only would it be nice for Thorpe to learn how to go deeper in games at an earlier level, but if he were to begin next year at Ft. Myers and move up one level per year, there's a good chance he would reach AAA having never thrown more than 150 innings in a season, nor consistently reached 100 pitches/GS. While that may not be a bad thing, it certainly isn't ideal for a pitcher just one step away from the MLB. For now though, let’s hope that Thorpe continues to improve here in 2014, in which case he could appear quite high on Top 100 lists, and would provide the Twins with another potential front of the rotation starter for years to come. [I]1. I would have liked to have compared this to the league leaders for July, but I couldn’t find that data. 2. Berrios, who did seem to wear out as the year went along, pitched just 103.2 innings[/I] View full article

Over the past year, Lewis Thorpe has exploded on the scene. An unknown commodity heading into the GCL last season, he was so dominant as a 17 year old that he has appeared on various preseason Twins’ top 10 prospect lists. He has made even more news this year, skipping the Appalachian league and going straight to A ball from extended spring training. However, the Midwest league has not been kind to Thorpe, who has posted a 5.40 ERA with a 31:15 k:bb ratio in 35 innings over 8 GS. Despite these struggles, Thorpe is showing sign of improvement. Moving in the Right Direction Thorpe improvement is easily noticed when looking at his monthly splits: June: 4 GS 18 IP 6.50 ERA 1.67 WHIP 7:10 k:bb July: 4 GS 17 IP 4.24 ERA 1.18 WHIP 24:5 k:bb Although Thorpe's ERA has remained high, it is significantly lower than in the month of June. Furthermore, his WHIP has plummeted to a very respectable level. Most importantly, his k:bb has gone from and atrocious .7 to a stellar 4.8. In fact, his K rate 33.3% is higher than that of the league’s leader this season (29%) and his K/BB would be good for second in the league1. A deeper way to examine Thorpe's improvement is to look at rolling 4 start stretches, which are rarely used when discussing baseball, but are commonly used in finance. The general idea is that this will allow us to get a more detailed look at how Thorpe has improved start to start (how much better was he in start 5 vs. start 1) while at the same time maintaining a larger sample size. In short, this will allow us to see how consistent--or inconsistent—Thorpe’s improvement has been. [TABLE=width: 452] Starts ERA WHIP K% BB% K/BB OPS 1-4 6.50 1.67 8.3% 11.9% 0.7 0.840 2-5 4.00 1.50 17.3% 9.9% 1.8 0.756 3-6 4.50 1.39 22.5% 8.8% 2.6 0.776 4-7 4.50 1.17 27.3% 7.8% 3.5 0.647 5-8 4.24 1.12 33.3% 6.9% 4.8 0.676 [/TABLE] Although his ERA has moved around a bit, his WHIP, K%, BB%-- and therefore K:BB ratio-- have decreased each period. Furthermore, his opponent's OPS has decreased each time with one exception. This kind of consistent improvement makes me confident that Thorpe is getting comfortable in A-ball and that his strong performance should continue the rest of the season. Furthermore, it proves that his strong month of July isn’t merely the result of one incredible performance. Going Forward I will be looking forward to Thorpe’s start tonight, to see if he can continue his run of success. Even if Thorpe is excellent for the rest of the season, I would argue that he should begin 2015 in Cedar Rapids. The reason? His youth. At 4 full years younger than the average pitcher in the league and 11 months younger than Kohl Stewart—the youngest pitcher to be qualified for the ERA title—Thorpe would probably be the youngest pitcher on an opening day roster in the Midwest league next year. In other words, there is no need to push him. However, Thorpe's youth is so extreme that its impact stretches far beyond this usual argument. Thorpe appears to have been on a very strict pitch count: according to the Cedar Rapids Gazette, he is being limited to 75 pitches a night. Furthermore, if Berrios’s age 19 season in Cedar Rapids is any indication, Thorpe probably won't pitch more than 120 innings next year2. Not only would it be nice for Thorpe to learn how to go deeper in games at an earlier level, but if he were to begin next year and ft. Myers and move up one level per year, there's a good chance he would reach AAA never having thrown more than 150 innings in a season, nor consistently reached 100 pitches/GS. While that may not be a bad thing, it certainly isn't ideal for a pitcher just one step away from the MLB. For now though, let’s hope that Thorpe continues to improve here in 2014, in which case he could appear quite high on Top 100 lists, and would provide the Twins with another potential front of the rotation starter for years to come. 1. I would have liked to have compared this to the league leaders for July, but I couldn’t find that data. 2. Berrios, who did seem to wear out as the year went along, pitched just 103.2 innings

I could not agree with the article more. What it boils down to is this: by the time we are legitimate World Series contenders, Perkins will be a free agent, past his prime, and we should have other viable options to close games. To maximize Perkins's value to the team-- from a win-loss perspective-- he should be traded.

Stewart's ability to generate ground balls has been under appreciated all year. Last night: 9 ground outs: 2 fly outs. For the season, his GO/AO ratio is 1.81 and it has improved as the season has gone on: his GO/AO ratio was 1.32 in both April and May.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/3227-Looking-at-Relief-Pitchers-in-Upper-Minors

There have been mixed feelings about Kohl Stewart this season. Some cite his low ERA as evidence he has been excellent, while other point to his low K-rate and claim he is struggling. Let’s take a closer look to see which is the case. [U][B]A Closer Look [/B][/U]The first thing we must consider is Stewart’s age. A prospect’s performance should never be viewed independently of his age: if a player is old for his level, he should be expected to perform well. Conversely, if a player is young for his level, expectations are lower. Kohl Stewart is 19 and is pitching in Single-A. Let’s put that in perspective: he is three years younger than the average pitcher in his league. Last year, Jose Berrios was 19 in Single-A and was likely the youngest pitcher in the league for most of the season. Kohl Stewart is currently the youngest pitcher in the Midwest League. Bottom line, Kohl Stewart is really, really young. As a result, we shouldn’t expect him to dominate. This means that if Stewart is in fact struggling, we shouldn’t worry too much. He can repeat Single-A next year and still be one of the younger pitchers in the league. Furthermore, if Stewart is performing well, we should be much more excited[SUP]1[/SUP]. Now let’s take a look at his numbers: 2.58 ERA (4[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league), 1.15 WHIP. You’ve probably seen these numbers. They are very good. One major reason for his dominance is a .268 BABIP (well below the league average of .312). This low BABIP could be a result of poorly hit balls (a good thing) or it could be luck (less good). Uncertainty exists. So let’s look a little deeper at three important percentages with young pitchers: strikeout rate, walk rate and ground ball rate. As many have noted, Stewart is struggling to strike batters out. He is striking out batters in 17.2% of plate appearances (6.46 K/9), 18% below the league average of 20.3% (7.9 K/9). However, Stewart’s control has been very good: he is walking batters in 7.2% of plate appearances (2.39 BB/9), 19% better than the league average rate of 8.6% (3.3 BB/9). This low walk rate has balanced his lack of strikeouts, allowing Stewart to post a slightly above league-average K/BB ratio of 2.39 (the league is 2.36). The next area to look at it is Stewart’s ground-ball/fly-ball tendency. According to [URL="http://milb.com"]milb.com[/URL], Stewart currently sports a 1.73 GO/AO (air out) ratio. This suggests he is an extreme ground ball pitcher, whereas his 1.24 GB/FB ratio (according to Baseball-Reference) pegs him as more of a moderate ground ball pitcher[SUP]2[/SUP]. Stewart appears to be, at the very least, a moderate ground ball pitcher. The importance of this ground ball tendency is easy to see: opposing hitters have a .079 isolated slugging percentage against Stewart, well below the league average of .119. [U][B]What it Means[/B][/U] Just looking at Kohl Stewart’s numbers leads to an interesting conclusion: He appears to be the classic “Twins pitcher”: low K-rate, low BB-rate, high GB-rate. Although it would be nice to see Stewart posting higher strikeout numbers, it can be argued that a low walk rate and a high ground ball tendency are more important at this stage in his career. You rarely see a fly-ball pitcher become a ground-ball pitcher and given the numerous reports raving about Stewart’s “stuff”, optimism remains he can increase his strikeout totals. If he were walking lots of hitters, anxiety about his future would increase. If Stewart can continue to generate ground balls, limit walks and increase his strikeout rate, he would be poised to become an ace. But even if he doesn’t become a strikeout machine, his excellent control and ground ball inducing abilities [I]at this young age[/I] should allow him to be an effective pitcher for years to come. Last year, the Twins limited Berrios to 103 IP. Stewart has thrown just over 70, so only expect him to log about 30 more before the Twins shut him down. Unless he becomes a dominant strikeout machine before the season ends, the Twins will have an interesting decision about where to start Stewart next spring: do they promote him to Ft. Myers and see how he fares or do you hold him back in Cedar Rapids for a month or two until he displays an improved strikeout ability? This author leans toward favoring the conservative approach—after all, he would still be one of the younger pitchers in the MWL—but hopefully Stewart will finish strong and force the Twins' hand. [SUP]1[/SUP] That being said, a prospect’s age should not enter the conversation when considering whether or not he should be promoted. A player has mastered a level when he has mastered the level, and that has absolutely nothing to do with how old he is. In other words, although we shouldn’t be scared if Stewart is struggling, we shouldn’t promote him just because he’s young. [SUP]2[/SUP] Considering that a higher percentage of fly balls are outs than groundballs, it is surprising that Stewart’s GO/AO ratio is significantly higher than his GB/FB ratio. It is possible that this is the result of an extraordinary number of weakly hit groundballs, or it could be a coincidence. View full article

There have been mixed feelings about Kohl Stewart this season. Some cite his low ERA as evidence that he has been excellent, while other point out his low K-rate and claim that he is struggling. Let’s take a closer look to see which is the case. A Closer Look The first thing we must consider is Stewart’s age. A prospect’s performance should never be viewed independently of their age: if a player is old for their level, they should be expected to perform well; conversely, if a player is young for their level, expectations are lower. Kohl Stewart is 19 and is pitching in Single-A. Let’s put that in perspective: he is 3 years younger than the average pitcher in his league; last year, Jose Berrios was 19 in Single-A, and was (I believe) the youngest pitcher in the league for most of the season; Kohl Stewart is currently the youngest pitcher in the Midwest League. Bottom line, Kohl Stewart is really, really young. As a result, we shouldn’t expect him to dominate. This means that if Stewart is in fact struggling, we shouldn’t worry too much; he can repeat Single-A next year and still be one of the younger pitchers in the league. Furthermore, if Stewart is performing well, we should be much more excited1. Now let’s take a look at his numbers: 2.58 ERA (4th in the league), 1.15 WHIP. You’ve probably seen these numbers. They are very good. One major reason for his dominance is a .268 BABIP (well below the league average of .312). This low BABIP could be a result of poorly hit balls (a good thing) or it could be luck (not so good). However, I have no information on this. So let’s look a little deeper at the three areas I look at most with young pitchers: strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate. As many have noted, Stewart is struggling to strike batters out; he is striking out batters in 17.2% of plate appearances (6.46 K/9), 18% below the league average of 20.3% (7.9 K/9). However, Stewart’s control has been very good: he is walking batters in 7.2% of plate appearances (2.39 BB/9), 19% below the league average rate of 8.6% (3.3 BB/9). This low-walk rate has balanced out his lack of strikeouts, allowing Stewart to post a slightly above league-average K/BB ratio of 2.39 (the league is 2.36). The next area I will look at it is Stewart’s ground-ball/fly-ball tendency. According to milb.com, Stewart currently sports a 1.73 GO/AO ratio. This suggests that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher, whereas his 1.24 GB/FB ratio (according to Baseball-Reference) pegs him as more of a moderate ground ball pitcher2. In any case, Stewart appears to be, at the very least, a moderate ground ball pitcher. The importance of this ground ball tendency is easy to see: opposing hitters have a .079 isolated slugging percentage against Stewart, well below the league average of .119. What it Means Just looking at Kohl Stewart’s numbers leads to an interesting conclusion: he appears to be the classic “Twins pitcher”: low K-rate, low BB-rate, high GB-rate. Although it would be nice to see Stewart posting higher strikeout numbers, I would argue that a low walk rate and a high ground ball tendency are more important at this stage in his career: you rarely see a fly-ball pitcher become a ground-ball pitcher and given the numerous reports raving about Stewart’s “stuff,” I remain optimistic that he can increase strikeout totals; I would be more nervous if he was walking lots of hitters. If Stewart can continue to generate ground balls, limit walks, and increase his strikeout, he will be poised to become an ace. But even if he doesn’t become a strikeout machine, his excellent control and ground ball inducing abilities at this young of an age should allow him to be an effective pitcher for years to come. Last year, the Twins limited Berrios to 103 IP. Stewart has thrown just over 70, so only expect him to log about 30 more before the Twins shut him down. Unless he becomes a dominant strikeout machine before the season ends, the Twins will have an interesting decision about where to start Stewart next spring: do they promote him to Ft. Myers and see how he fares or do you hold him back in Cedar Rapids for a month or two until he displays an improved strikeout ability? I would lean towards the conservative approach—after all, Stewart would still be one of the younger pitchers in the league—but hopefully Stewart will finish strong and make that decision for us. 1 That being said, a prospect’s age should not enter the conversation when considering whether or not they should be promoted: a player has mastered a level when they have mastered the level, and that has absolutely nothing to do with how old they are. In other words, although we shouldn’t be scared if Stewart is struggling, we shouldn’t promote him just because he’s young. 2 Considering that a higher percentage of fly balls are outs than groundballs, it is surprising that Stewart’s GO/AO ratio is significantly higher than his GB/FB ratio. It is possible that this is the result of an extraordinary number of weakly hit groundballs, or it could be a coincidence.