mikelink45

Without the contract how would we be looking at Hughes? I saw some expensive players jettisoned by other teams this spring, but I know the Twins cannot do that. I hope Hughes turns it around, but right now it does not feel like it.

I think he continues with the same average and production that he has had in the past. He is not going to have a big peak or a low point. If the phrase - he is what he is - applies to anyone, it is Rosario. No big peaks and valleys. If you like what he has give good, if not, he is not goint to be anything else.

Well they did give us a fun conversation list and it is still two days until April 1!!! Danny Santana and Molitor obviously have a good relationship and it clouds the overall decisions. I really thought Park had earned his place. If we are waiting for something I do not know what it is. He is not a young player and this should be his peak age. I would have preferred to keep him and then if he fails send him out, but we invested, believed and waited. We should give him his trial in the spring MLB. All we stood to lose was Santana. The question I have with Grossman is whether last year was a career year or has he really turned the corner? His .280 batting average was far over his career figures and continued exposure could have him reverting to norm. We really have a 12 pitcher staff if I am reading this right. It appears that we are burying Haley and will let him pitch some non-stress innings so we can keep him. Not sure why. When I look at the MiLB rosters we have plenty of pitchers with the same or better potential. I guess I am going to assume that we will play Mauer for a week or two and then call up someone who is more agile at first than Robbie Grossman. I do fear that Hughes is going to be a big let down and maybe we will have Duffey moving into that rotation spot as we find various injuries to justify setting the vet.

I would say his consistency from beginning to MLB is amazing so why stray from what he has been doing. I say that he hits the same as last year, but with more at bats he gets a few more home runs. Hopefully the one thing that changes is his fielding and I think it will improve but remain below replacement.

Nothing this spring gives the FO a worst grade than the bullpen. Haley, Belisle, Breslow! Is this analytics? As Haley and Beslow struggled it was still apparent they would stay which is similar to the old TR regime. If we sign them they stay on the roster because otherwise we would not look good. Tell me that we have not spent the last three years talking about all the relievers in the system to just be at this place in roster construction. I understand that good teams roll with vets, we are not a good team and the vets are not good vets. If we put our bullpen up for auction amongst the rest of mlb would we get back the value of their low contracts? I am trying to figure out the music that will accompany them when they stroll to the mound. I think the Beatles "Help!" might be needed or the Isley Brothers - "Here we go again", or Kris Kristofersons' "Why me Lord?"

I love his potential, I hate his K rate. At his current rate we can say that he gives up a high percentage of his at bats. Does this really increase his home runs or does it just reduce batting average and create more pressure for the other batters because they have to play with less outs for moving batters, sacrifice flies and other options. When I look at Cabrera and Ortiz I see K rates half of Sano. Someone has to reach him. The habit of striking out is hard to break as he goes along, but the potential he has to make things happen when he either makes contact or walk is significant. I am hoping ST is just empty stats, but I am concerned. So I give him a 240 BA, 30 HRs when he should have 40. I hope to be proven wrong, but Sano will decide. As for defense, I have nothing to judge it by. He has been here two years and we did not see enough at 3B to know.

When you do not change the roster significantly it will be the coaching and player maturity that will be the difference. The analytics will be how Molitor and his coaches change their use of their players. Grossman can only be DH and PH if we value defense at all.

Those are some really depressing numbers for defense. I can see Buxton pulling them up, hopefully Castro, but we have a long way to go here.

Brian Dozier is at about peak age for ball players. This year and the next are when I expect the most so unlike most I am not predicting regression. I think 42 is a lot of HRs so I will back up to 35, but I think he gets on more with a 280 average and 35 doubles. His RBIs depend on where he is in the lineup, but I think the lineup is getting stronger from top to bottom except Catcher so I see him holding his RBIs in the 100 range.

The big question for me on the rotation is Phil Hughes. After his last performance I would say that he is showing no progress. I know spring training is for working on things, but in his case he should be working on being a high rotation starter again and what I am seeing is the HR ball and no put away. Somehow I envision he and Tonkins teaming up on his starts and setting a new record for HRs by the opposition. Since I cannot see the games and rely on TD and other sources plus the box scores I have to dig to understand. Here is an interesting set of comparisons: Year W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP 2017 Spring Training Stats 1 2 6.55 6 6 0 22.0 12 1.59 Spring Training Career Stats* 9 9 4.47 52 40 1 179.1 126 1.36 2016 Stats 1 7 5.95 12 11 0 59.0 34 1.51 MLB Career Stats 84 76 4.41 253 200 3 1204.2 970 1.29 These are from http://m.mlb.com/player/461833/phil-hughes What I find interesting is the comparison between spring 2017 and his long record of ST experiences. An era that is 2 above his average is startling. A whip that is .20 above average for a control pitcher is unnerving. He is a ten year MLB vet. After a very bad injury plagued year this is far from a good sign for the team when he is expected to be one of the top three in the rotation.

I am not able to project Mauer's hitting for 2017. I do not think he will improve except as Molitor removes him from games where he is destined to fail. So I went crazy trying to see how players decline and learned a lot. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/ has a key statement - In the past few seasons, hitters no longer improve once they arrive in the majors. Instead, their performance is constant until they begin to decline, which, on average, is at 26 years old. (This is an reminder of why players like Vargas need to play now if we want to maximize their potential.) Since Mauer strained his body by being a catcher I looked at the aging curve for catchers - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/ which has an interesting insight - As we can see, peak offensive levels are from 25 to 28, as is pretty commonly accepted, and then there’s a gradual decline as a player gets beyond those years. But notice the trend of the blue line (catchers) compared to all position players (the red line); they move basically in lock-step from 27 to 32, after which point catchers actually age better than the norms for non-catchers. And - Good 34 year olds don’t regularly become bad 35 year olds. In general, you should expect players to decline at something like +0.5 per season. If they’re especially injury prone and their bodies are breaking down, limiting future playing time, maybe you knock off +0.75 WAR per season. The next site I looked at said - hough he's not part of the study, it's worth pointing out that the decline outlined in the above graphs applies to Pujols. His 9.4 WAR in his age-29 season in 2009 was the highest of his career, but since then, his WAR totals have been trending in the wrong direction. He had a 7.3 WAR at age 30, a 5.1 WAR at age 31 and a 4.6 WAR this past season at age 32. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1539301-putting-mlb-aging-theories-to-the-test-on-star-players This next piece seems to indicate that players decline, but flatten for a period in the thirties http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/catcher-aging-curves-in-the-mainstream/ the relative production from 32-35 is pretty stable, and as others have shown, framing skills seem mostly immune to aging. So, while the downturn in aging curves might be bad news for a 32 year old catcher. Of course Mauer is not a catcher so his pitch framing and other catching skills cannot overcome his physical decline (but give hope for Castro). But Mauer also had a concussion - "Recent work, however, has called into question the assertion that full recovery after sport concussion without persistent adverse effects is the norm." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3685434/ And lastly another site may apply to Joe - ""Although players who sustain a concussion may be symptom-free and cleared by MLB [Major League Baseball] protocol to return to play, the residual effects of concussion on the complex motor skills required for batting may still be a problem," said principal investigator Dr. Jeffrey Bazarian, an associate professor of emergency medicine at the University of Rochester in New York." http://www.webmd.com/brain/news/20141126/harm-from-baseball-concussions-may-linger-study-finds With that in mind I think we cannot expect upswings from Joe at this stage, but we should understand that this great players has many factors leading to his current production.

A catcher does not have to hit a lot to be valuable. I remember Del Crandall anchoring the Milwaukee Braves in the 1950s when they were a really good team, but he did hit 260s with a strong arm and a good behind the plate presence. Castro hitting in the 220s is way to low for my liking, especially on a three year contract. I hope we get Garver up and splitting time before the season is over.

I agree with you Seth, the changes in Bullpen use in the season have already happened with the KC demonstration that a set of relievers can save a team from a set of poor starters, but the use that Miller had in the Series is a playoff only situation. He was quoted in Sports Illustrated that he won't be used during the season like he was in post season because any reliever would burn out like that. What we need baseball to do is revise the SAVE RULE AGAIN because arbitration and salaries are based on that. Instead we need to see the save as the reliever who comes in with bases loaded and no outs and stops the bleeding right there (extreme case) regardless of the inning. I am still sorry to see Jay in relief and I read into this that the Twins are still committed to the old guard filling the rotation so the bullpen is the only option.

I would like to believe the Twins will start cutting on the balance of talent expressed and future potential and not just keep a guy like Haley because we invested what in baseball is a pittance for rule 5. Tonkin is in a rut and I cannot see change coming. I was critical with how long it took to bring him up and try him out, now I might be critical of a decision to wait too long. If Molitor likes WImmers let him be the player in the bullpen. We have Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Jay...in the minors, its a good time to start auditions. Get rid of Haley and Tonkin and use this position for the future and hopefully add Breslow to the cuts too. I would like to see Duffey, Mejia, and Berrios rotate starts and relief and see if we can get one to step up and better yet - all three.

Like the Twins, the Sox have to be hoping that the prospects develop into players. That is not a sure thing, but they got variety of players in the field and on the mound and seem to have a plan in play. Right now the Twins have half a plan - bats.

Lets play for the future. If we have an idea of where 2018 might be we should start working players into that system. Dozier, Polanco, Buxton in the top three is great potential and I would love them to stick with it for at least two months to see if it will work. Mauer is not a 4/5 batter - Park, Sano fit better and I would not worry about their batting sides. Use them there. If Sano fails, move him down, not out. The end of the lineup is really interesting. Mauer, Rosario, Kepler, Castro could bat anywhere from 6 - 9, but I like Rosario or Kepler as an on base option for Doziers subsequent at bats. Remember that the first batter could potentially be lead off only in the first inning. I would have put Mauer and his OBP there, but I know they could never consider putting him 9 so I would take six, Castro 7 and Kepler/Rosario 8 and 9.

I felt that there were comments all Spring that hinted at the Berrios demotion. It would have been nice to see him get one ST start first, but more and more I feel like Berrios needs to go somewhere else. Let another team straighten out whatever is keeping him from prospering. I do not have faith that the Twins no how to do it.

The screwball used to be more common. A quick search brought up this list - Carl Hubbell. Cy Blanton. Luis Arroyo. Jack Baldschun. Bobby Castillo (taught the pitch to Valenzuela) Mike Cuellar. Warren Spahn (in the second half of his career) Not bad! If he can throw it well it is a real weapon. Good article on Hector and the pitch - http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/03/hector-santiago-los-angeles-angels-screwball-fip-era-outlier-mlb Now if someone can bring back the Forkball that let Elroy Face go 18 - 1 as a reliever for the Pirates! http://articles.latimes.com/1989-08-13/sports/sp-694_1_elroy-face

My comment does not diminish what they want from Santiago, to me it is a question of which pitchers are more important to perform in front of the eyes of management, a vet they know or young players that are important for the future. Do not forget that Gibson is now a veteran. In both age and years of service he is not a young prospect any more. He is now beginning his fifth year in the rotation 32 - 38 with a 4.59 ERA at age 29 with an accumulated WAR of 5.

My old mantra - we need a coaching staff that knows how to get players over the hump from great in the minors to at least productive in the Majors. We are wasting talent and the repetition of these events is a solid condemnation of the process. I also have a difficult time seeing Santiago going as the MLB starter and the two promising young pitchers going AAA and AA games. We know Santiago. He can stretch out versus the MIBL players as well as MLB. What does Paul have to see? Shouldn't he want to see the progress and potential of the young pitchers? Chargois does not bother me when I look at his performance, but I have to question the pitching coach and staff who did not help him progress during the ST season when players are supposed to be learning, developing...

I will look and see. I read it in the actual magazine. It is not on the webpage - it was in the text in their MLB team by team break down and was written by an unidentified scout. I was surprises. On their web page where they give the Twins a grade of D as their final winter report they reverse that by saying: "Minnesota got better at catcher (Jason Castro is an outstanding pitch framer), which could help lift an uninspiring rotation, but few of the players signed since we took an in-depth look at their off-season moves figure to do much to help the club improve on last year's 103-loss season." I have scanned the article - but they want a url for an image so here is what they said, "They gave Jason Castro a lot of money to their front-line guy. They had a good degensive catcher in Kurt Suzuki and let him walk. I would rather have Suzuki than Castro."

I wish you convinced me, but you did not. Call me the pitch framing skeptic - have you read the scouts report in Sports Illustrated - calling Suzuki a much better catcher? Play with stats all you want, Castro is okay, Santiago is a filler and neither are going to move the Twins up the standing - the only things we have going for us is that the White Sox are writing off this season, KC is going downhill, the Tigers only need a couple pulled muscles in their old crew!

That is my concern too. I have been a big fan of his, but something is setting him back and I fear it might be mental more than physical because he has shown the tools. Who do we have that can really help him get past this obstacle?

This is not the pitching staff that moves us forward. We have discussed the rotation throughout the spring and the winter and it just does not make sense. Haley should go, Rule 5 players seldom make it - I wonder how many are still on the drafting teams right now - and Haley had a chance and did not grab it. Breslow is a mystery. New angle, new wishes, still a marginal, at best, performer. Chargois is the biggest spring disappointment, he has definitely not performed well and like Haley this was his chance to move up the list. Hughes has not looked good, despite all the he looked good despite giving up three home runs comments that are more hopeful than factual and his last outing did nothing to erase the memory of his previous one. The rotation can have everyone reach their best and still be in the lower third of rotations. I suspect that Berrios will go down which I am very sorry about, but he has not grabbed the opportunity. His line in the WBC Berrios, J PUR 1 0 5.40 1 1 0 5.0 2 3 3 2 1 6 0.60 does not give him a good argument. At least 5.40 is a better ERA than his major league total to date. On the other hand Santiago looks good Santiago, H PUR 1 0 2.08 3 0 0 8.2 9 4 2 0 5 9 1.62 until to look at his WHIP which is a full 1.02 more than Berrios. https://www.worldbaseballclassic.com/stats/

They really proved the value of defense and bullpen! Their speed also played big in ways that metrics cannot measure. When they got someone on the other team got an extra degree of nervousness and that causes problems. It is what I hope Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario do for the Twins.