mikelink45

I had hoped to have some really meaty transactions to mull over for the Twins this year, but Cron, Schoop, and Torreyes have not moved the meter. I wish them all luck, but I wonder how much has Cron improved us over Austin? How much better is Torreyes than Adrianza? Is Schoop the player we need? Schoop's fielding is replacement level according to what I saw on Baseball Reference, his hitting is not. Now we will continue to have Polanco at SS which is certainly not the best fielding situation. How strong are we in the middle with these two playing there? So far we are filling the roster, but have we improved? How many wins will these player give us?

Does not do anything for me. If we send Cron and Austin in exchange I am fine. Of if we have excess players we are not going to use like Curtiss that is okay too. But in an exchange like this how much does the team gain? Cron 2 WAR, 253/30/74 traditional stats, 816 OPS, -12 Total Runs above average fielding. Santana 1.7 WAR, 229/24/86, 766 OPS, +3 fielding. So based on last year, the only gain we would get in Santana would be in fielding and yet the discussions say his is only a DH now. Put me down in the not excited column.

They tried, but they did not react. Sorry but the FO is still on my questionable list.

The article really brings up the question of roster construction and that all revolves around pitching and especially the bullpen. In the olden days there could be a big bruiser like Johnny Mize or Enos Slaughter who could come in for a late comeback. There were players like Felix Mantilla that were like Ehire and succeeded. We had back ups for all positions, defensive specialist, pinch runners, etc. If baseball is going with this change in rosters its time to expand the roster. Make it 30 or 28 - I do not care. The same number are in the field as always, but the manager can wake up again because there are other options beside intentional walk and change of pitcher.

We are now at a point where there is no bench - just a reserve catcher. Lots of BP so what used to make sense no longer does. I long for the 10 pitcher rosters.

I do not know if we should have moved on anything yet, but all the coach maneuvers are not about to excite the fan base, if they care about the fan base.

If Falvey and Levine did not know this they are not as smart as everyone says. They saw this and still thought they could succeed.

If I ever needed a reason to question WAR - you just gave it to me. Byron has a career 230/285/387. His WAR for 4 years was 6.9. Since I think defensive WAR is as questionable as other defensive stats I have to look at this with some skepticism. I know he is really great in CF, but so was Billy Hamilton. I want Buxton to be a star, but so far he is not.

It is like blaming Molitor for the team frustration when the FO gave him the players. We really do not know the ownership restrictions.

To add to my concerns about Buxton and Sano. I know we have been told to be patient and to wait, they are young, but I keep seeing young players coming in and setting the league on fire. Here is an ESPN article about all the 25 and younger new stars: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25417893/young-players-officially-taken-major-league-baseball We keep waiting and hoping, but we still have to be ready to be realistic. Something went wrong and I wish I knew what it was. But when I keep seeing everyone write we should be going after it in 2019 I think about what we have and this summary was really good, but also "Buxton struggled early and then broke his toe and was never really given a chance to recover properly. But when healthy and with his legs (and feet and toes) under him), he's the best outfielder in the game." Which is not the case. He has the potential to be the best in the game, but it has not happened except for very short stretches. I want us fortified if Buxton and Sano are busts and if they are not - all the better.

Last year the Twins struck out 8.2% of their at bats. Sano 38.5% Cron 25.9 % Austin 35.4 % Imagine that as the middle of the lineup! I can't. All stats from Fangraphs.

Defense up the middle is essential to any team and particularly to the pitchers. If we want good pitchers we have to do more than frame their throws. Fix SS and 2B. We do not have the answers right now. I am not a fan of SANO at 3B either. Lets hope we start to see something from him with new coaching. I am content with the 5th pitcher options. In fact I think Romero belongs in the top four and we should be ready to trade Odorizzi, or Pineda or Gibson if they look good this spring. Pair one of them with one of the other fifth starter options and move us up in talent. OF worries me because I am not convinced that Buxton can make the transition from Billy Hamilton light to a full fledged CF star. Of course I hope, but the signs have not been there. The BP is really light on talent. Time to change the SP candidates to RP. The RP prospects we have been developing have not been shining when called to the bigs.

Lets work on our own hitters. Forget the launch angle and start working on the contact skill and an eye for the strike zone. The players listed will not lift the team. This is a challenge and it is an important one, but we have to hope our new gurus fix it internally.

I like this even if there is a hint of sarcasm. Terry Ryan, at the end of his reign needed to be replaced, but that does not mean he was not smart and did some very good things for the organization.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25420487/billy-hamilton-jonathan-schoop-non-tenders-looking-work Read this before getting too excited by the bargain bin players. Some are worth having on a team, but none are players that will put us to the level we want.

Here is the roto projection for Cano in 2019 - and remember he will be going down from here on. http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=34410

Hamilton reminds me of Buxton. Lots of speed in CF, but no bat. At least Hamilton stole bases. Could this be a wake-up for Byron? I hope the new coaches get to him before he becomes a future non-tender.

Speaking of expectations - I always wonder about coaches and what they do and how they contribute. I seldom know who they really are and what their job descriptions are, but this interview with Wes Johnson - our new pitching coach - who I also never heard of was really enlightening. I mentioned in an earlier posting that the thought of bringing on someone who actually teaches might be better than just having another old vet (of course I teach college so I am a believer) but this article from the Athletic really filled me in on Johnson. https://theathletic.com/683157/2018/11/29/wes-johnson-minnesota-twins-pitching-coach-google-hangout-interview-daughters-bedroom/?source=dailyemail

I understand, but I would trade potential before being stuck with obvious and expensive regression in Cano.

Let us suppose that the rest of the league sees the same potential that we do in Sano and Buxton - forget their current output - teams are trading for prospects and the future. So what would we get in a trade? I know this will be unpopular, but if this is about creativity all options should be on the table for discussion purposes. Would I extend Gibson - no. A really nice turn around season at his age is great, but how will he age? Will he continue to improve or will he regress. He is another trade asset in my mind. In fact, if Pineda looks healthy, trade him too. Keep moving the dial. Don't wait for the Indians to regress or the White Sox to progress, we do not win by letting other teams slip behind us as we stay the same. The Athletic had a good essay looking at pitcher expectations from the beginning of year compared to end of the season rankings and in interesting pitch guys it looks at Kyle Gibson and Odorizzi. https://theathletic.com/683759/2018/11/30/sarris-learning-from-a-look-back-at-my-preseason-pitching-rankings/?source=dailyemail The key statement in the Gibson section is "He went from a predictable pitcher to one who is likely to throw any of five pitches in any count. No one pitch he throws is dominant, but all together, he’s a usable veteran." And for Odorizzi - "Jake Odorizzi has never found the breaking ball he’s looking for. His issues with command, homers and the third time through the order were not likely to go away without change."

I would take the reliever- but not the Cano baggage.

If we are really on the path to the WS, it is still 2 years away (probably 3 or 4) and where would Cano be at that time - ask the Angels about big contracts for once great players. This is a NO all the way, but thanks for asking.

Bear with me now - I am about to go off the baseball rails here. I read all the speculation, all the projections of player salaries and all the moaning from our team and fans and the rest of the teams and their fans so I am going to say something no one wants to hear. We do not need an Ace, we do not need a superstar! There it has been said. The follow up to that is - and I want us to win the series! Okay, now for my reasons. Lets start with the easiest - the Ace. The Ace in the 1800s pitched much more than any current pitcher. Old Hoss Radbourne won more games - 59 than any pitcher starts in a season. He was the triple crown of pitching leader - 1.38 earned run average, 59 wins and 441 strikeouts. I know we are all about strikeouts now - look at that total. And he pitched 12 years! Okay that was an Ace that made a real difference. Then we got to the 30 win era where this was the standard that really set out the ACE - Denny McClain in 1968 was the last to win 30. There were 21 thirty game win seasons with most in the early 1900s. And they still had arms on their bodies the next year. These thirteen pitchers were also Aces of course Denny took to Aces in the gambling dens and ruined his career. Then came the twenty game winners - with Warren Spahn winning 20 - 13 different years during his career - despite losing years to serving in the war. His last 20 game year came in my high school graduation year - 1963. He and the other 20 game regulars were Aces. On this list of twenty game winners is Nolan Ryan - yes he also lost a lot, but he was the real leader into the strikeout era and he also was a complete game pitcher. Then we went to five man rotations and now to openers (the shame) and the argument that wins don't matter. The above pitchers also completed games - Cy Young completed 749 games - yes he won and lost games. And he earned his wins just like the other Aces above. Now, the Ace not only pitches one of five games, but only 6 - 7 innings in most outings. I see Kershaw get $35m a year and think - why? He cannot even move them forward in the off season and his speed is diminishing. Sign two number twos and three number threes and we will be better off than signing a one, running out of money and ending up with most games being toss ups or worse. Of course you can also make that a different combinations of 2s,3s,and 4s, but don't break the bank on the ACE. Then there is the Bryce Harper/Manny Machado madness. Who in the world is worth the kind of money they are talking about. Living in MN I have heard for years about how the Mauer contract impacted the team ability to sign other players (I know it was an excuse, a joke, not real), but 300 - 400m is not a joke. Look at Mike Trout - the greatest player of our current era. By himself he cannot lead them to a championship season. Nor has Machado or Harper shown that they can either. Each player is up to bat 3 - 5 times a game - that is all and if no one is on base they cannot drive them in. If they swing for the fences and have a crap average like Harper or Sano or Morrison did last year you get 30 HRs - which if they are spread out give you 30 games of production and 132 of small or no production. In the field only the catcher and first baseman are involved in the majority of fielding plays, so even in the field there is limited production most of the time. Since WAR is such a popular figure think about the numbers the best players puts up. No one is worth 80 or 90 WAR, the great ones are 10 and there are few is any each season. This individual game is still a team game and if the team does not pitch, field, hit, the team does not win and wins are what we want. Look at the Angels other player - HOF to be - Pujols. Tell me his worth to the team, tell me how that contract impacts the team. No - sign a lot of good players, good fielders, good on base average, good production people, steal some bases, be fast and be involved. It is the team with production 1 - 9, rotation 1 - 5, even slightly above average at all positions that wins. Not the team with the biggest star.

I agree with you. My intention was to say that, of course we want to surpass Cleveland, but that is not enough. That is not a goal, it is just what must be done to reach the heights we need.

My issue is that we are looking at the wrong team if we are trying to compete with Cleveland. I know it it the FO old home, but the fact is they were just good enough to get in and get beat and overall they are what the Twins once were, first round punching bags. The Twins need to forget them and go after the teams that will really make a run at the prize, unless we are just ready to be a Minnesota Nice team.