mikelink45

I came up with the 500 record simply by adding all the projected wins and losses. I do not know their criteria for figuring this.

What a great quote to open this up. We have a great history of baseball here in MN.

A relief pitcher with an ERA close to 5! He is usually only in for one inning. There are a lot of red flags. Get him cheap or don't get him at all.

Bucholz and Pomeranz do not move the dial for me. Are they really ready to improve the Twins more than what we have? Baseball Reference projects a 6 - 5 record, 3.63 era and 1,24 WHIP for Buchholz and 104 innings. Pomeranz is projected for 7-6, 4.11 and 1.40 with 105 innings. Compare that with the pitcher projections for the existing players. Do either of them make us better or just solidify the 500 status of the club. https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11300-%7B%3F%7D/

It has been up to Sano and Buxton for four years. What is the next plan. The WAR and projections are in my blogs. I am looking for neutral observers and what I see is not good enough. I am excited by Graterol, Kiriloff, and Lewis, but do we want to just wait? The players we have are on one year contracts and we will be clearing a lot of roster for 2020, but it means another year of mediocre play. I can buy that one of the players has a big year, but Sano, Buxton, Schoop, Cron is asking for a lot. https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11299-%7B%3F%7D/ https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11300-%7B%3F%7D/

I had the same concerns and turned to what I think is a neutral arbitrator to look at our pitching for next year and put it on the blog. The real question is - are we satisfied to be a 500 team or do we want to contend. https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11299-%7B%3F%7D/

A few days ago I looked at the Twins lineup and bench and we had a total war of 16+, which is not good and our defensive metrics were not good either. So how do we stand at this point with our pitching? I am using baseball reference as my go to on each player. I am not projecting surprises rookies or trades or FA. There is nothing that makes me think I should. Starting Rotation - WAR - Projections (win-loss) ERA, Whip - someone has to win the game so they count for me. Jose Berrios 3.8 12-10, 4.02, 1.20 Kyle Gibson 3.9 10-11 4.24 1.39 Jake Odorizzi 1.5 8-8 4.18 1,28 Michael Pineda 0.6 4-4 4.37 1.30 - 2017 stats Fernando Romero 0.4 5-5 4.19 1.31 Bullpen Addison Reed 0.1 2-4 3.68 1.23 Taylor Rogers 2.2 3-3 3.46 1.17 Trevor Hildenberg -0.6 4.4 4.50 1.59 Trevor May 0.6 3.2 3.92 1.23 Gabriel Moya 0.2 3-2 4.22 1.27 Adelberto Mejia 1.0 4-4 3.87 1.35 Matt Magill 0.7 3-3 4.08 1.38 Kohl Stewart 0.6 3-3 3.84 1.30 I took Kohl as a random person from Little, DeJong, Curtiss... The WAR for our starters in 10.2 WAR for relievers is 4,8 I am sometimes confused by WAR because if I add our 16.6 batters to the starters and relievers we have 31 games won next year. I think we can ignore that. If these are our pitchers we have 64 wins and 63 losses which leaves us with 34 games from our call ups and fill ins. So lets keep going with the next pitchers on the list. Stephen Gonsalves -0.6 4-3 4.58 1.44 Zach Littell - 0.5 2-3 4.30 1.78 Chase DeJong 0.2 3-4 4.22 1.30 John Curtiss 0.0 1-2 4.34 1.31 Tyler Duffey -0.8 3-3 5.04 1.32 Aaron Slegers 0.0 3-3 4.50 1.28 That brings us to a collective 80 - 81 and someone else - maybe Astudillo Willans will pitch the deciding game on our 500 season. The WAR for this group is -1.7. So with our team as it now stands that is the summary I can extract from Baseball Reference. Do you agree or disagree? This has to fit with https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11299-%7B%3F%7D/ I wish it was a rosier picture, but this is just looking at the data as it sits right now with a team that seems committed to the status quo! I cannot find WAR for coaches.

Yes it is included in WAR, but I want to make sure we recognize that we have a problem that is more than batting. We need to have better gloves too if our pitchers are going to have a chance.

I thought about putting Buxton in starting, but I am not sure of the teams approach and his need to earn his spot back. He makes them better fielding, Cave makes them better hitting.

I was curious where we stand as a team - right now. Since the fast and furious signings seem to be in a lull (facetious statement). Let's put the team on the field as they are now composed and see how they stack up using their 2018 WAR and the Total Zone Fielding Runs above average and the 2019 projection - all from Baseball Reference WAR RTOT Projection Polanco SS 1.5 , -2 270/329/415 Rosario LF 3.6 -10 278/319/464 Cron 1B 2 4 253/316/455 Sano 3B -0.5 -2 239/322/452 Austin DH 0.5 236/301/446 Cave CF 1.5 -2 259/317/455 Kepler RF 2.8 16 235/317/419 Schoop 2B 1.4 1 259/302/448 Castro C 2.5 3 222/309/370 using 2017 numbers Adrianza U 0.4 -3 249/307/385 Buxton CF -0.3 3 237/297.393 Garver C 0.9 -16 254/325/407 Torreyes U 0.3 - 2 270/312/384 What do you think? 16.6 WAR total. RTOT - 16. Can we hit, can we field? I will look at the pitchers a little later. I just need to digest what these totals tell us. Our does this all hinge on Sano and Buxton like I talked about in - https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11292-%7B%3F%7D/ Do we need more or do we look forward to another year with the moves that are made? https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11289-%7B%3F%7D/

Romero in the rotation is my wish. Do not waste a dynamic arm like his by relegating him to the bullpen. I am still a believer in starters.

If all these players taken were considered better than what we had, should we have taken one? Should we resign these players or just let them be free agents and hope they find a home?

It says a lot about the real value of the Twins assets.

Okay, we know we are not in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. Be glad. Only Boras can sell him as the $400 million dollar man. If we look closely we know better. What were his stats this year? 1.3 WAR. 248, 34, 100. Yes he had a +133 OPS. Is that worth $40 million a year? He has had 7 years and an accumulated 27.4 WAR - 3.9 per year. What is that worth? Lets me realistic here. The following article says that in this inflated era a player gets $3.8 million per war - that means that for 2018 Harper was worth about $5 Million. If we take his average over his career it means just under $15million. Will he sign for that? Of course not. Boras has the league buffaloed so he will get twice or more for that. https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/7vwjmy/realistic_war_how_much_should_players_actually/ He will argue that these are his prime years coming up and that is true. However, how long is his prime? Most estimates make 32 the maximum. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/ Then what? Look at Pujols. He might be DFA'd now that the Angels have gotten a first baseman and DH. Or Tulowitzki who has been DFA'd with two big years left on his contract. Of course we can always look at the impact that the player has on winning. Harper has been with the Nationals seven years. They have been first 4 times and second 3 times. Of course they also have Scherzer the best pitcher in the NL (I know some like Kershaw) and Strasburg and Rodon and Werth and Turner... Yet they have never made the WS. They lost in the LDS four times 3 - 2. Mr Harper never took them over the top. A team is a team, not a star and bit players. Those who chase Harper or the guy who does not want to play all out, but will play dirty can expend the big bucks, but the Twins have much more affordable options in the next tier. Of course that assumes the Twins want to win and want to spend.

When I read your title - I read in Broomstick instead of Boomstick - so I can in reading this with a different mindset. Good essay. I find myself somewhat indifferent over Cruz and yet if he comes the broomstick will be needed at some point to move out the competing bats and players who clog the lineup and roster without getting us to the championship. When I read Cron, Cruz, Sano behind Polanco I think of the hot summer and all those whiffs creating a cool breeze for the fans in the stands.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25512874/minnesota-twins-outfielder-byron-buxton-admits-was-angry-not-getting-called-up This article is interesting in light of my recent Blog about Buxton and Sano and how long do we wait for them. Today I listened to Gleeman and the Geek and once again I hear that we are waiting on this potentially dynamic duo. But if so what is the thinking of the Front Office. Read this report and it is obvious that we did a lot of damage by not letting Buxton play in September. Why? What did the team gain by this? What was the message that they wanted to send? In the Athletic - 12//13 - comes the following quote - "But Baldelli hopes to go further than a phone call with Buxton and Sanó soon. He said he tentatively would like to visit each, including a trip to the Dominican Republic to Sanó’s home, before the end of the year, with the knowledge that plans can always change." Why wasn't there a meeting when Buxton was in Minnesota? The Athletic article said, "Buxton spoke out at a charity event in Minneapolis on Tuesday for the first time since the Twins didn’t promote him in September, a move that surprised players in the clubhouse and leaves Buxton just shy of three years of service time. Had he eclipsed three years of playing time during the past season, Buxton would have remained on target for free agency after 2021 as a 28-year-old. Instead, Buxton — who is arbitration-eligible this offseason after reaching Super Two status — won’t hit free agency until he’s 29, which potentially could cost him significant dollars. Buxton spoke to reporters from the Pioneer Press and Star Tribune. “Pissed? Yes,” Buxton said. “I ain’t sugar-coating nothing, simple as that.” “It’s business, they did what they did, I do what I do. At the end of the day, I’m still going to keep playing hard, still want to play in Minnesota, still want to play beside my teammates. That’s all that matters.” Did Buxton have to say that to get their attention. The day after was when Baldelli said he was going to visit Buxton and Sano in person.

I like the first 5, the remainder can mix and match with other prospects - at least I hope there are other prospects that can push forward.

Nice speculation. None of us can figure out the FO strategy so speculation is all we have. I thought Austin should have been played as much as possible after we got him and I am sorry to think he has already been overlooked in future plans. It is a story line we will all be following, but I wonder how Austin feels.

I am not content to have another below average year at 3B and SS, plus a poor defender at first. I love defense. Others have posted that Petit is our back up and that Schoop would move over. Isn't there a minor league 3B somewhere that is near ready and could be obtained? This is MLB, the FO has to deal with difficult challenges. And we have to have a good infield defense if we are going to have productive pitching. The reason everyone wants Buxton in the lineup is his defense. What good is CF defense if the infield can't function well?

No. We already have a SS that can't play SS, we do not need another one, especially one who has suffered so many injuries that his prime is in the rear-view mirror.

I loved it. This off season is boring and discouraging so far. Big deal - we got Schoop - does he increase our wins by 1 or 2 next year? So are we trying to win? No we are waiting for Buxton and Sano - try taking on how long they should wait and what they need to see in some segment. But more important thanks for not deleting your debate - argument. I loved it. I was waiting for Aaron to walk off. The frustration was really fun because frustration is so basic to being a Twins fan.

If Sano cannot play 3B - injuries, etc. his options are 1B or DH. Right now there is Austin, Cron, Cave (if not starting), Garver (if not starting or wiped out by concussion), and Sano if not at 3B. I am not against Cruz, but what are the plans for all these contingencies?

Somehow, celebrating second place in an historically bad division does not seem exciting or satisfying.

Give me some back up at 3B that can start when Sano gets injured or cannot find the ball with his bat. Let the pitchers work things out, but the starting lineup needs to be 9 decent or better players and not seven players and two sets of crossed fingers.

I do not disagree with you - see my response to the other posting on this blog. Jake Cave gives us a third OF so we are in better shape there, but we are in terrible shape if Sano does not step up. We have no decent 3B in the minors and there are not a lot of options for filler like the scrap heap OFs that they kept grabbing during the season. 3B is essential and hard to fill. We can talk about swinging Polanco over there, but he is at SS because we do not have a good option for him there. His bat would play okay at 3B. But Adrianza and Torreyes are not fit to be starters. I really want a contending team. When the real first rung teams have a hole they fill it and if they have too many good players they deal them, or deal with the consequences. We have been playing with two hands tied behind our collective backs for two years. Something has to happen and I would love it if these players came out and starred this year.