Andy MacPhail

There were 3 observations that I made that I was displeased with the Twins pitching throughout the years. 1st, was able get pitchers from like TB & MIA, make tweaks & they take-off yet homegrown SPs get bogged down & don't meet desired expectations. 2nd, pitchers burning out which IMO is poor BP management & lack of pitching depth. 3rd, was pitching Ober & SWR when they were obviously not well enough to pitch & they never really came back. Now all 3 were probably not Maki's fault & were more Baldelli, Shelton, Falvey, Zoll & MiLB development's fault. IMO, Maki was fine, the firing was more, new management wanting their own guy in there. I really liked what CWS did, Their pitching was a disaster to start the season. They had a very young pitching group with a lot of very young SPs. Besides having an inexperienced rotation, they had a terrible BP. What they did was instead sending all their surplus SPs down to AAA & waste all their bullets there; they put them in the BP. They ignored MLB's "tabu" of using piggybacking, openers & BP games with their young SPs & made it work. They became a force, supported the rotation & helped CWS surprise the MLB world to make it to the postseason. This is more managerial than coaching but it's a philosophy that I wish the Twins would adapt.

Fans have liked Maki, what are the Twins doing? Not necessarily negative, I'm just curious, what are the Twins up to. What is their rationale? Who's decision was it? Shelton? Zoll? an outside source? It's a drastic decision, who made it? I'm hoping that there was a good reason.

Great points, a small book could be written, trying to answer all your questions? I'll just comment that Twins needs someone who can drum up interest on players who we want to trade. Teams who are interested, know if they wait, they can pick them up on the cheap. That's why Twins don't like to trade, they prefer signing FAs to fill our needs. Twins should have traded Ryan, Jeffers & Larnach in the offseason or deadline but IMO, they couldn't get enough for them. In the offseason, Padres desperately needed pitching, we could have picked up soon MLB-ready Salas (potential elite catcher) & some very good RPs for Ryan. Shortly into the season, Yankees were desperate for catching, we could have traded Jeffers for at least one young promising SP. There were a few teams that could really use Larnach (8,2 BTV) at the deadline, the best we could do was Bryan Abreu (-0.6 BTV) & that was nixed by the owner. There is still interest in Ryan, but I don't think the Twins can come up with a satisfactory trade in the offseason or deadline. Twins (creative) wait & see approach doesn't work; they need to be more proactive. To find someone like that isn't easy. But it'll answer a lot of our questions.

The cause of coming short this season is as always running out of gas due to lack of quality depth, The main reason we didn't have quality depth was the same, poor player evaluation & philosophy. Poor player evaluation results in poor drafting, misplacing players defensively & poor trades, Hanging onto players that should be traded, having a hugh glut at LH hitting OFers & short everywhere else, trading players that shouldn't be, promoting & playing players that shouldn't be & sitting players that need a chance. There are too many 1st round draftee that fizzle out. For us to become better we need to become like the Brewers, not NYY.

I'd place Keaschal at 1B, DH isn't important part of the core. Many can fill that role. Also as long as Buxton is a Twin, he's part of the core. Whether it's CF, cOF or eventually even DH.

IMO, the most important pieces have not arrived yet. When Lackey (C) & Houston (SS) arrive then we can talk about the serious core.

Did Twins trade away their '26 postseason, through the '25 selloff? Simple answer, absolutely yes. Those who know me know that I was against all the major trades, Only trade I liked, at that time, was the Jax/ Bradley, the trade that wouldn't have happened if Jax hadn't demanded one. I'm not a fan of the accuracy of WAR but looking at the 6 WAR gained, our record would be 84-78 tied with CWS. The little WAR that Rojas & Rodon gained could have been picked up by someone else. But we can't look only at the WAR face value, because only are we upgrading high leverage, we are upgrading up & down the BP with greater depth, So, many of the blown & close games that were lost by the BP, would turn into wins, which were many. I also advocated that the last few years of losing wasn't a player problem, it was a management problem, Falvey on down. I also agree with weitz41, what is done is done, we have to learn from our mistakes & move on, Which I'm hopeful.

Martin did not sign with the Indians as a 37th-round pick out of high school in 2017, instead choosing to honor his commitment to Vanderbilt. He led NCAA Division I in runs (87) and the Southeastern Conference in batting average (.392) and on-base percentage (.486) as a sophomore, helping the Commodores win their College World Series championship and setting himself as a potential No. 1 overall pick for 2020. Scouts felt that Martin was the top hitter in his Draft class. He has an outstanding feel for the barrel and effortlessly makes hard contact with a short, quick right-handed stroke that quickly and efficiently gets into the strike zone. He controls the zone very well and uses the entire field, showing no weaknesses at the plate. Martin was scouted as a contact hitter but after he hit several clutch HRs in the College World Series to help Vanderbilt to win their CWS championship. TOR thought they could unlock a hidden power inside Martin. While he didn't have arm to play 3B in pro ball & because of his INF qualities they'd try him at SS, When they couldn't, maybe they thought their highly rated prospect was dispensable. MN also bought into this idea of transforming him into a power hitting SS superstar. Martin's scouting report of fast reacting, quick feet, soft hands & below average arm, screams out to me, 2B, yet he hasn't gotten the coaching & playing time there. (potential) Power is the main factor in rating prospects. If big prospect A has a high Power rating & below average in everything else, he'll still have a high prospect rating. Yet if small prospect B who rates high in every category except Power & is below average in Power, he gets a low rating. IMO, a prospect who has high potential power, there is no guarantee that this prospect can develop that power or that he can even hit in the MLB. The odds that prospect B (who is developed properly) to make the MLB is much greater than prospect A. Pro stats reward players who hit HRs. Many believe that a .700 OPS is the break off point to be a good player without even considering their defense. It's easy for a poor fielding slugger to hit .700 OPS while a good fielding contact hitter has to have a crazy OBP to qualify. These stats analysts have swayed social media & many teams that HRs are everything. Social media propagates these stats & fans eat it up. MIL has been criticized for years for not hitting HRs, yet they keep on winning. MIL has found the secret. They draft cheap underrated prospect Bs, develop & manage them properly, while avoiding expensive sluggers. IMO, if a team like MIL had Martin in their org., he could be an all-star 2Bman (where MN has been weak for years) now. Again, the type of hitter, that Martin is. it's hard for me to blame him for his crazy slump.

I agree with the consensus that you can never have enough pitching especially SPs. Twins always run out of gas when they get towards the end of the season. Why's that? Not enough depth/ poor workload management. Also, Ober has shown that he can adapt; he can shift to lower velo, go to the BP, he does what's needed. IMO, you try to keep a guy like that. He's not that expensive.

I agree that arm strength is overrated when an OFer is slow to get to the ball & slow to release the ball, there is no advantage, If an OFer has an average arm who gets to the ball quick & has a quick release, he can compensate, But Keaschal has a weak arm & it seems that runners run on him. You can't blame anyone else for that in the OF.

To be defensive minded is to consider a player's glove not only his bat & prioritize glove up the middle (not 1B). Something Twins have failed to do prior. Moving Lee off SS, Keaschal off 2B & Bell off 1B, revolutionized our INF from terrible to passable. They should have moved Keaschal to 1B because of his arm. OF isn't his position & I don't get Shelton playing Keaschal in CF? That's not being defensive minded. Keaschal could eventually be passable in the cOF but I don't see his arm playing there.

Happy that Ryan finished the season on a good note.

Everyone uses analytics, it's how they use it that makes a difference & not ignore what's really important.

IMO, Shelton has been good for the team & Zoll has been OK, but last year & long before I've advocated to poach someone especially from the Brewers. If it means move on from these 2, so be it. They haven't done it before because they couldn't get beyond Falvey's analytics as a solution. Maybe now they'll wake up, so we can get on the right track.

I love your rationale; I'm 100% behind you. IMO, we have guys that can step up in the BP. So, catching is our #1 problem. Caratina hasn't proven himself from back-up. If the Twins are serious, they need someone better. You might look at our MiLB teams & say we are set but when will they be ready? Not next year. I really like Edgar Quero, Endy Rodriquez & others you mentioned; I don't think any of them would block Lackey. They'd be good tandem with Lackey especially the LH hitters. If both prove to be elite catchers that cry out for more playing time, that's a good problem to have. I'm sick of the expensive FA merry-go-round at 1B that never goes anywhere. I'm fine with Lewis at 1B & I'm fine with trading Lewis & go with Keaschal at 1B & keep him there. I'm fine with trading veterans if we get younger players that'll contribute right away.

I felt they should have seriously dealt with his shoulder problem in '25 when it 1st popped up. I shook my head when Paddock said he was ok (no surgery, just treatment) when his arm was ready to fall off. '25 Festa said his arm was ok (Surgery not needed). '26 was not ok, did not pitch any meaningful games. I respect Paparesta's opinion but now still no seriously addressing the problem, I feel it's kicking the can down the road & missing a lot more games. When Festa does come back, he'll need to go to the pen until he can prove he can handle the workload as a SP.

I agree sooner the surgery gets done sooner Buck gets back into shape. But like what has been discuss Buxton might have had a say to the delay & also the doctors need to be available. The way things look there'll be a lockout & could be longer than some would like but could aid in Buck not losing any games.

The firing of Deron Johnson does not concern me. But the reduction in the scouts & depending on analytics (especially based on bad philosophies) does.

Another possible reason that I forgot is, injury. His return from injury, he looked worse, IMO, might have something there especially now. But I doubt it's the main reason. The 3 last season not playing Martin at 2B are lost, I still think Martin is the better player there & maybe he could play there some if the Twins wake up & they trade Lewis next season. But when Houston comes up; the position is Culpepper's.

This my first TD blog, so, we'll see how it goes. From '13-'18, Dozier played very good 2B even when he was hurt. The "keystone" is a valuable up the middle position where range & turning a slick DP should be prerequisite for a 2Bman. But since '19, Twins philosophy is that they can hide defensive challenged players at 2B. Twins started the '19 season with Schoop but later went with Arraez. Don't get me wrong I love Arraez as a hitter but a 2Bman he was sub-par. It's very difficult to judge defense even with OAA & DRS, but double plays are something more straightforward. Here below I have listed where the Twins rated each year since '19. Season '26- Keaschal & company #23 ,68 DP/ games Season '25- Clemens & Keaschal #30 Correa played more than half the season at SS Season '24- Julien primary #30 .45 DP/ game Correa at SS Season '23- Julien primary #30 Correa at SS Season '22- hurt Polanco #22 .73 DP/ game Season '21- Polanco #09 Season '20- Arraez #26 .63 DP/ game Season '19- Schoop/ Arraez #18 DPs are a pitchers best friend, where are they for the Twins? 2B is a lesser prime position, & IMO, Twins should be in the top 10 to really compete. Twins tried to hide Arraez, Julien & Keaschal for years until they could no longer fool the fanbase. Twins' lackadaisical attitude on defense especially at 2B is alarming & has cost us a lot of games. Who was our best choice at 2B, the last few years? It was Austin Martin. After experimenting with Martin's hitting & at SS, in '23 they left him alone & played him mainly at 2B. He looked pretty good for his 1st real look there, In '24 they threw him in the MLB OF. In 24 & '25 he didn't look bad his few times at 2B. If given regular playing time & proper coaching at 2B our 2B situation would be much better. Now I'd like to discuss Martins hitting. With his early years in MN, they tried to make him into a slugger, that didn't work. He said enough & went back to his own swing. In MLB '24 he had 163 ABs against (RHPs) for a .313 OBP & 70 ABs against (LHPs) for a .326 OBP. He had more than 2X more ABs facing RHPs, with similar OBP & even slightly higher SLUG against RHPs. In MLB '25, he had 104 ABs against (RHPs) for a .361 OBP & 52 ABs against (LHPs) for a .404 OBP. Although he had less ABs he still had 2:1 RHP to LHP ratio. All his numbers were considerably higher & his SLUG & OBP was considerable higher with LHPs. Until '26, he faced more than 2X RHPs than LHPs. In '26, he blossomed having over .500 OBP until May when they decided to demote Wallner, then it fell off a cliff. I look at him now & he's a different hitter. What caused the decline? Could it be that he was playing fulltime? IMO, no because he played a lot while in the MiLB. Could it be facing more RHPs? Again, IMO, no, because until now, he has faced more RHPs & has done well. Martin is a good contact hitter that has good ABs, his slump is baffling. So, what is it? This is only my theory mind you. Baldelli learned to leave him alone, but Shelton & his coaching staff are new & with Wallner demoted, IMO they wanted Martin to hit with more power to compensate for Wallner's absence & again changed his hitting. My summation is that this tinkering with his swing has caused this funk. Instead of constantly trying to change Martin, they should better evaluate him & play him to his strengths not to their wants. Everyone would be happier.

He's an easy guy to love, I really want him to succeed. (Some of the hits you shown, were misplayed). Yet I hate strikeouts even though if he walks & gets OB, Will he get enough walks in the MLB level to justify the SOs? That's my concern. I wish him well & he's fun to watch when he does do well.

Twins should have traded Ryan, Jeffers & Larnach but I understand why they didn't. Twins' fanbase was at a very low level after the traumatic selloff. They had to do something to give them something to cheer for. I'd have sold them off while getting them some players who can impact the team right away. This has been the best buying deadline that I can remember. I'd rate the Minter trade a B+ because, IMO, neither INFer would contribute to the Twins. For me giving up Jhomnardo Reyes was much more difficult.

IF is a big if, I was a big fan of Lewis, he had a bright future. Now, IMO, Twins should trade him, unfortunately, he's broken, he's a Boras's client, there's no future for him here. Hopefully, he has a great finish. IMO, he'll find success elsewhere at 3B, 2B or 1B. 1B could be his best position, once he gets more acquainted there.

No, let's stop this FA 1B/DH merry-go-round, plug Keaschal in & keep him there.

With the increase in velo, makes Ober more effective.