Mr. Brooks

Well, you said criticism welcome, so I have a couple. Paul Goldschmidt doesnt even crack your top 10 first baseman? Strasburg #7 starting pitcher? The dude is #1 if the innings limits are off, and even if they limit him to 210 or so he should be #3 at worst.

Josh Willingham?

Hehe, there's a Polish joke in there somewhere.

No, the risk is not lessened. This is a brain injury, not a broken rib. The risk will ALWAYS be there for Justin. If Morneau gets another concussion, he's likely done, by HIS OWN admission. That is not the case for most players. I'm not even saying that Morneau is more likely to get another concussion (although there is medical evidence that he is), I'm saying if he gets another one, that's likely it for him, whether it happens tomorrow or in 5 years.

So you want them to pile on by bringing some novelty north on the opening day roster? I get that they've had a rough couple of years, but lets not turn them into the St. Paul Saints just yet.

Thats a fair point, but at the same time, pitching is only 1/3 of the game. If you spend too much of your capital looking for pitchers, you risk becoming the Mariners, a team with a bunch of legit pitchers and pitching prospects, but one that cant win because it cant score any runs. Its a delicate balance.

This isnt Disney, this is major league baseball. I get that Chris Colabello is a nice story and all, but if he's one of your 25 best players, you ought to be ashamed and embarrassed as an organization. The guy OPS'd only .836 as a first baseman at AA last year, as a 28 year old playing against a bunch of kids many not even old enough to buy a beer.

You dont think some players posses greater risk than others? And he wouldnt have to suffer the injury before playing a single game to give you zero production, he'd just have to be producing at replacement level or below at the time.

Is there any steam behind Oscar Mercado right now? As much as we need SP, I agree we do, I think we need an elite SS prospect in our system just as badly. I'm not saying reach for this guy, but if he shoots up the draft boards and is considered a top 5 or 6 pick by June, I wouldnt mind having him in the mix.

I would have been fine with them sending Hicks down to start the year. But if they were going to do that, they should have kept their mouths shut. But, they openly stated at every opportunity that if he earns the job, he'll go north. I think it would look bad to spend all winter saying that, then send him down anyway when he's (by all accounts) done everything he needs to do to "win" the job.

If Joe flails away at bad pitches in that situation, the same people are saying, "dont try to be a hero Joe, take what they are giving you!" Guaranteed.

Let me get this straight, you are saying that taking a walk there is a bad thing?

Sources: Red Sox willing to deal Ellsbury or Lester, not both - MLB - ESPN

Again, I've already said that of course there is some threshold that can be crossed where speed can overcome OBP. I'm just saying we don't know where it is. The Mientkiewicz/Guzman example is far too small of a sample size to determine anything. We don't know how many of those runs can be attributed to speed, and how many to pure happenstance. Outs are a valuable commodity in baseball. You only get 27 of them. Its not like basketball where you can foul to lengthen the game, or like football where you can manipulate the clock or kick an onside kick. I dont want guys who are more likely to make an out, getting 1 more AB per game than guys who are less likely to make an out. For me, that is the bottom line in its simplest form. I've already said there are exceptions, what more do you want me to say? But as a general rule, I want to give that extra AB to someone who is less likely to make an out.

I didnt need your example to understand that the concept exists. Who would deny that there is a % threshold that a baserunner could theoretically cross that would give him an advantage at scoring runs? For that reason I thought you were trying to illustrate that a faster runner DOES score more, not that he COULD. However, even if you could show the exact % advantage that a faster baserunner has, it would still be almost impossible to prove that your lineup overall scores more runs with that baserunner near the top of the order. For example, a faster runner could steal second base, then advance to 3rd on a wild pitch that wasnt far enough away from the catcher to advance a slower runner, then come home on a fly ball that wouldnt have been deep enough to score a runner. In this example the faster baserunner clearly scored a run that the slower baserunner probably wouldnt have, BUT, it wouldnt have mattered where in the order he was in this instance, since he created his own advantage, and wasnt necessarily driven in by the meat of the lineup.

It only illustrates that if your math is factual data. You just made those percentages up, so it doesnt illustrate anything.

The angst is because head injuries are different than most injuires. They are unpredictable and even in this modern age of medicine, neurological experts still dont know everything about the brain. Its not like a broken foot where you put it in a cast and x amount of weeks later its like it never happened. It's silly to declare that Morneau is for a fact going to OPS .900, as if its some sort of undisputed fact and not opinion. Especially considering he's only OPS'd .900 once in his career (in a season in which he accumulated enough PA's to qualify), and that was his MVP season. Nobody is saying he cant do it. Of course he could do it, but those people also are not declaring that they know for a fact he won't.

The Cards already have a logjam of much better 1B'man than this kid. Matt Adams is one of the 2 or 3 best 1B prospects in baseball, and is probably already MLB ready, but they'll likely have to trade him, because there is nowhere to put him on the Cards roster. Carpenter is being moved to 2nd base, and Allen Craig could move to the OF, but the problem is they are loaded there too.

I'm certainly not claiming he can't. Of course he can. I'm just saying its too soon to claim with absolute certainty that he already has. I think we need to see it first.

How am I claiming to be some sort of "concussion expert"?

Hmm. This one is tough. I think, on paper, they have the best lineup in baseball. Its not without questions though. On the one hand, I'm skeptical that VMart is really healthy. I'm also skeptical that Torii has much more in the tank than slightly above average corner OF'er at this point, if that. His numbers were pretty fluky last year, plus he's a year older. I think there is no way he maintains that batting average he put up a year ago. On the other hand, I think Prince has really put in the work to become a better all around hitter. He's sacrificed some power over the years in exchange for a more balanced approach, and I for one thinks it makes him a more dangerous hitter, one who should continue to get better. I cant help but think he's emulating his game after Miggy's, and I could see him flirting with a triple crown at some point. Austin Jackson has turned himself into a damn good ballplayer. You have the 2 old geezers up the middle. Every year I think this has to be the year they fall of the cliff, but every year those two just continue to put up adequate, respectable numbers for the position. While I think 2011 will prove to be a career year for Avila, I do think he bounces back from last year and settles in right about in the middle of the two. Of course their defense is not great, but I think their starting pitching is pretty good. Verlander is , well, Verlander. Sanchez actually got quite unlucky last year, and still put up respectable numbers, I think he has a pretty good season. Max Scherzer has the stuff to be a Cy Young candidate, perhaps even as soon as this year. An under the radar guy to watch out for is Rick Porcello. He's pretty much been a bust so far, but he was once a top prospect and is still very young. His K rates have been ever so slightly improving each year, as has hit BB rate, and I think that trend continues this year. I'm predicting a surprising year from him this year. Nothing special, but better than expected. Everyone is down on their BP, and while I dont see it as a strong suit, I think it will be "good enough". Rondon has electric stuff, he's going to be fun to watch, and he's looked much better since they made a mechanical adjustment with him earlier this spring. Bottom line, if i'm betting your money, I'll say over. If I'm betting my money, I'll stay away from this one.

When evaluating other teams, I notice people tend to always subtract for the losses and regressions, but I rarely see them give credit for the young players who should be expected to improve. De Aza will be a really good player. Viciedo looks to have some real pop, and supposedly they've worked hard with him to add a leg kick that should improve his timing and help out his AVG and K rate a little bit. Everyone expects a huge regression from Rios, and while I see a small one, I'm just not seeing anything too "fluky" about his numbers last year. Same thing with Peavy. He's completely healthy now, and people forget that he was borderline dominant before his injuries. Sale is the real deal. If he can keep his arm from flying into the 5th row any time soon, he will join the ranks of Price, Weaver, Felix and CC as one of the premiere aces in the AL. Konerko is Mr. Reliable, year in and year out you are going to get .300 with close to 30 HR's. Not sure why everyone expects a major regression from Dunn. Looking at his career numbers, it was 2011 that deviates from the norm, not seeing anything unrepeatable about last year. Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham have both underachieved compared to what was expected of them, no doubt, but both have seemingly settled nicely in as average to above average middle infielders. I'd take them over our duo any day of the week. The rest of their rotation is a bunch of ???, but same can be said for every team in this division except the Tigers. For all this talk about their lineup not scoring a bunch of runs, I'm not seeing that. Its not elite, but I think its solid, and will probably score more runs than ours. I'll take the over.

I'm not making an argument either way on this one, BUT, just because a guy struggles at the ML level, does not necessarily mean that they were "rushed". That would only be true if baseball were a game in which every player was guaranteed eventual success. Quite often players struggle simply because they are not any good, and no additional amount of time at AAA is going to change that.

Sure, I can buy that, but it depends on how big of a gap we are talking in both OBP and speed. If its only 5 points difference and one guy is billy hamilton and the other guy is matt lecroy, well I think that one is fairly obvious. My original point was taken somewhat off the rails though, and that was this: The lack of speed shouldnt rule out an otherwise obvious choice. If a guy is a .385 OBP'er, with minimal power, I think its absurd to say, "I can't bat him #2 because he doesnt have the speed to move around the bases like Matty Tolbert does." And to an extent, I honestly think that is how Gardy considers his lineup construction sometimes. Same goes for "being able to handle the bat and lay down a bunt." But I'll save my bunting in the AL rant for another day.

Though unlikely, I could see Rosario getting a call up by June or so 2014, if all goes well. You just never know how quickly he could learn to play the position adequately, and I think his bat is fairly close, and should be ready by then. One year ago today, none of us would have said that Aaron Hicks would likely be the 2013 opening day center-fielder, yet here we are.