Its not really that I think every collection of independent events will turn out negative, its just that I dont see nearly enough talent in this group to overcome even just some of them going negative. If worse case scenario were to hit (meaning all of them turning negative), I think this rotation could be historically bad. Like someone else said, its not just pitchers coming from the NL, 2 of them are coming off significant surgeries, so they carry even more risk than just the standard NL to AL switch. I'm not convinced that Pelfrey is anywhere near ready to pitch, I mean what is he throwing right now, mid to high 80's? With his lack of movement, he needs his typical low to mid 90's just to be the serviceable pitcher that he was before the surgery. I hope they dont rush him out there knowing he's not ready, because IMO it could get ugly. I also think its hard to know what you are going to get from Worley. He was good his rookie year, pretty bad last year. So many variables though: smallish sample size, his first year looks fairly lucky, last year looks fairly unlucky, he was pitching through injury, its just so hard to tell what to expect from him. I think they are trying to be optimistic about Gibson, but the whispers I am hearing are that internally they are trying not to count on anything from him this year. To me there are just so many ? marks, and IMO not even the majority of them need to go negative to be pretty bad, because i'm just not seeing much talent there to begin with. But, this is why they dont play the games on paper, right! Only time will tell.