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Mr. Brooks

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Everything posted by Mr. Brooks

  1. Mr. Brooks
    To be clear, I'm not in the camp that thinks that OBP is the most important consideration in getting a guy into the lineup or not. My stance is that once a guy is already in the lineup, OBP should be the most important factor (not the only) in determining the #1 and #2 hitters.
  2. Mr. Brooks
    Best case scenario for me is Morneau gets off to a great start, Mark Texeira and AROD both have setbacks, and the Yankees call offering Angelo Gumbs and Mark Montgomery.
  3. Mr. Brooks
    IMO, that is backwards. If that slow footed, base clogging high OBP guy is going to be in the lineup either way, doesnt it make sense to bat him in front of the high power guys who are normally hitting #3,4, and 5? It seems to me the best opportunity for that slow footed guy to score runs is to have guys behind him who hit doubles and HR's, which also seems like the best way to keep him from clogging the bases. And the faster, lower OBP guys dont need power guys behind them. They should be able to use their speed to steal 2nd, then score on a single, so it would make sense to bat them in front of the weak, singles hitters, rather than batting the slow footed base cloggers in front of the singles hitters.
  4. Mr. Brooks
    I suppose if you are going to go on record I will too. I'm seeing an OPS in the .795 to .810 range this year from Justin.
  5. Mr. Brooks
    One reason I tend to believe it was just randomness and not some trend, is that his babip was 40 points above his career norm over those 2 months. It was not his slugging that improved in those 2 months, it was his AVG and OBP. If you regress his babip to his career norm then those 2 months suddenly look just like the rest.
  6. Mr. Brooks
    Just like I cant say for certain that its just randomness over a long season, you also cant say for sure that its absolutely a trend that shows he was improving and will therefore continue. Either one would be absurd. Thats kinda what I was getting at originally.
  7. Mr. Brooks
    The statement, "Justin Morneau is back to being a dominant hitter" is not something that can be disputed? Well I guess that settles that. BTW: Morneau was terrible in September, he could not have been worse.
  8. Mr. Brooks
    IMO, the ONLY qualifications you should look at for your top 2 hitters is OBP. Obviously there would be some exceptions to this, I think it would be a waste to put a 30 HR power hitter at leadoff even if he had the best OBP on the team, but those are extreme exceptions. Its pretty simple, the #2 hitter is going to get one more PA than the #9 hitter in the vast majority of games. So, unless Matt Tolbert had one of the 2 best OBP's on the team in those instances that he was penciled in at #2, then yes, he was blocking someone. My original comment was more or less an attempt to mock Gardy's fascination with "lineup continuity", as if somehow when a guy is at the plate, he's actually thinking, "oh boy, I usually hit 8th, but today I'm hitting 7th, i cant concentrate!!". I have no idea if Gardy hits 2nd basemen more often #2 than other managers. And FWIW, I think Gardy is a good manager, but that doesnt mean he's perfect and to me lineup construction is one of his biggest flaws. I understand that lineup construction has a minimal effect, but even if it loses you 1 or 2 games versus the "optimal" lineup over a season, that can prove to be a very significant amount in some seasons.
  9. Mr. Brooks
    I guess I've never understood the reason why a #2 hitter needs to have speed as part of his game? I mean if you are giving me the choice between two different guys with equal OBP's, sure I'll take the one with more speed. But, the lack of speed shouldnt be a reason to keep a guy out of the 2 hole, and I'm not sure I've ever heard it explained why it should.
  10. Mr. Brooks
    For the most part I've heard below average regarding Hermann's defense behind the plate. I'm not sure I've heard anyone who follows the minor leagues or the organization describe it as being so terrible he should only be used in an emergency capacity. If this is true it is quite an indictment on the organization.
  11. Mr. Brooks
    How can you know that until/unless he gets a legit chance? Just because he doesnt have nasty stuff doesnt mean he cant be a decent mlb reliever, his minor league numbers are consistently very good.
  12. Mr. Brooks
    I guess I never looked at Matt Tolbert as a big time base stealer. Obviously I was only partially serious about my previous comment. Of course he hasnt hit a 2B'man at #2 every time, but its no secret that he likes to put them there.
  13. Mr. Brooks
    Why would they offer him $14 million dollars if he's not playing well? Out of all the possible scenarios discussed in this thread I think that one would probably be the worst.
  14. Mr. Brooks
    Jason Marquis was a one year deal, and Nick Blackburn would still be in competition for a spot in the rotation if he was healthy.
  15. Mr. Brooks
    Hopefully he's up to stay by June. I'm sure he has some things he needs to work on, but he looks pretty close to being ready. Developing young guys as bullpen arms is a fairly new philosophy, but we've seen some other clubs have success with it, and I'm glad to see the Twins doing the same now. Being able to stack your BP with good young arms making the league minimum should help with being able to pay more money at the positions that have a greater impact on the game (not that the BP doesnt.).
  16. Mr. Brooks
    You guys are over complicating this. With Gardy its "play 2nd, bat 2nd." Thats it.
  17. Mr. Brooks
    I'm not arguing that it is a logical thought process. Just that it's the reality. Teams dont cut veterans with years remaining on their contract, it just rarely ever happens, no matter how terrible they are playing.
  18. Mr. Brooks
    What does that mean, "on a scouting basis"? How much can "scouting" determine when talking about a guy with 1000 career innings over a decade? At this point he is who he is. And we didn't need to identify which one of those guys would be "the best". They are all going to be right around the same, give or take a little bit. We are not contending this year, the extra 1.5 to 2 wins that will separate #1 from #14 (and no, I dont mean W/L record) are completely meaningless to a 90 loss team. All we needed to do was get one of those guys, to have one more option to pitch some innings until some of the younger guys are ready. Any one of them would do just as well as any other one of them. Get whichever one you can get on a 1 year deal, and call it a day. Giving one of them a second year was completely pointless.
  19. Mr. Brooks
    I can't see him getting even a cup of coffee at the ML level.
  20. Mr. Brooks
    That's a false equivalence. Certain players carry MORE risk than other players. Sure any player could get a concussion at any time, but a guy with half a dozen (at least) already is much more risky than a guy who hasnt had any. I just dont see Morneau as part of the long term of this team. In that case, why even bother with the risk? The only way he's worth the $14 million qualifying offer is if he's having a great year, and if that is the case, then we shouldnt have any problem getting a decent prospect at the deadline. Parmalee can move to 1st, and Arcia gets called up to play RF.
  21. Mr. Brooks
    I'm not a big fan of picking out 2 months of a full season. Every player in baseball has months where they hit well above their final OPS, as well as months they hit well below it. There is a reason that baseball uses such a long season, its a "fluky" enough game that it takes a large sample size to even out. If it were a consistent trend where it gradually improved each month from April through September, then I could consider that he was shaking off the rust, but it wasnt. He was terrible in April, then hit the cover off the ball in May, then terrible again in June, then pretty good in July and August, then terrible again in Sept., or basically the same type of monthly splits that I would predict you'd find from any other league average first baseman last year. That said, I do think he's going to have a better year this year. I think confidence goes a long way in baseball, and I'm sure he's more confident than he was this time of year. But, its based on gut feeling and not something I think you can cherry pick random splits from last year to predict.
  22. Mr. Brooks
    I'd say it probably depends more on how soon he can learn passable defense at 2B. I dont think any of those 3 guys will be blocking him in any way once he's ready.
  23. Mr. Brooks
    I would assume that he is minor league depth and nothing more.
  24. Mr. Brooks
    The second year might not matter, but there are scenarios in which it could matter. One of them being, Correia completely stinks this year. We enter July and he has an ERA north of 6. Now what do you do with him? Last year with Marquis, it was easy, because he was only on a 1 year deal. Its very rare that you see a guy released with a contract extending beyond the current season, no matter how badly he plays, you are kind of stuck with him. Which brings us to another scenario in which the second year could prove to be a problem. Lets say that Meyer and or May completely dominate this year, and show that one or both is ready to compete for a starting spot in the lineup next year. Lets say Gibson is up by then, and has established himself as one of our best 5, and so has Diamond. You potentially put yourself in a situation where you feel tied to a guy because he's guaranteed 5 million dollars, and it could deny a spot in the rotation to a young guy, who is actually part of the long term solution, who would be making the league minimum. There are many ways the 2nd year has the potential to hurt you, many of which are not foreseeable at this time, but could develop themselves as we go forward. It was just so unnecessary.
  25. Mr. Brooks
    Yes, that $5million could matter. The Twins have shown that they do not, and absolutely will not go over their "51%" model (obviously many years they dont even get to it, but they never go over it), so that $5 million could be the difference between signing an all star caliber player at a position of need, versus settling for just an above average player at that position. Sure, its unlikely that the stars will all align in that fashion, but why commit money to next year when it was absolutely unnecessary?
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