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Mr. Brooks

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Everything posted by Mr. Brooks

  1. Mr. Brooks
    And my point is that his positional scarcity trumps any negative defense contribution he makes. Mauer's defense has only been worth a negative 5.2 runs below average, over his entire career, while his positional scarcity has been worth 41.1 runs over his entire career.
  2. Mr. Brooks
    Exactly. I like to equate sabermetrics to poker hands. AA is going to win more hands than 72o. But, this does not guarantee you are going to win a single hand, or even a series of hands, with AA vs 72o. All you can do is know that you are getting your money in with the best of it, and over a large enough sample size you are going to win money, while the guy going in with 72o is going to lose money. Sometimes it takes a REALLY LARGE sample size though. Bottom line: Playing the odds will never guarantee success, but it's hard to see how it can even be disputed that it gives you a better chance than not playing the odds.
  3. Mr. Brooks
    That's not true. Aaron Cross is claiming that RBI are the end all, be all stat for middle of the order hitters.
  4. Mr. Brooks
    Stating that having your better hitters get more AB's than your worse hitters should lead to more runs and more wins isn't really sabermetrics, its common sense.
  5. Mr. Brooks
    Its a lot easier for a guy (Willingham) to get 100+ RBI when he has a guy batting directly in front of him who is on base more than 40% of the time (Mauer).
  6. Mr. Brooks
    And scheduling a series in Minnesota the first week in April makes the least sense. There are at least 16 MLB teams that are in warm climates or domes (or retractable roofs).
  7. Mr. Brooks
    No, being good is not like being Pope or Supreme Court Justice, it's not something you attain for life. He had 6 full seasons here and couldnt manage a winning record in conference once, and won exactly 1 NCAA tournament game. I guess it depends on what context you are putting him in. Compared to me, or my Aunt Judy, I suppose he's good. But considering his "name recognition", and his salary demands, he's at best mediocre, and even that takes some creativity to support.
  8. Mr. Brooks
    Thats because I was wondering why you brought that up in the first place. I don't think anyone here was arguing that his defense is what makes him valuable.
  9. Mr. Brooks
    I don't think anyone is down on Hicks, I think OP is just forming a hypothetical.
  10. Mr. Brooks
    Agreed. Hell, Tubby found a new job before we have even found his replacement, and Tubby is not ANY good.
  11. Mr. Brooks
    Its worth noting that Posey is also an elite defensive catcher, Mauer is not, for whatever that is worth.
  12. Mr. Brooks
    What WOULD happen: Mastro would replace Hicks and bat leadoff. What SHOULD happen: If Hicks doesn't work out, Carroll needs to replace someone and hit leadoff.
  13. Mr. Brooks
    Because nobody here is arguing that his defense is what makes him valuable.
  14. Mr. Brooks
    The fact that Gardy rarely bunts makes it even more of a mistake to use that as a consideration for who should bat 2nd, not less.
  15. Mr. Brooks
    The reason a good hitting catcher has more value is not necessarily tied to how much value that position has defensively. It has more value because someone is required to play that position, and on average it's the hardest position to fill with a good hitter.
  16. Mr. Brooks
    Craig Kimbrel was only worth 3 WAR last year. I think you (and apparently Jim Bowden) are DRASTICALLY overvaluing how many wins a single relief pitcher can add.
  17. Mr. Brooks
    I agree, you missed the boat on the batting order John. However, you nailed it on the pinch hitting, and on Burton. With the bases loaded and 2 outs, in a 1 run game, I can't fathom why/how Gardy thinks Ramirez is a better option there than Carroll. Ramirez is an out machine. And I literally thought that maybe Burton wasn't available in the 8th inning, it made zero sense that he wasn't in there.
  18. Mr. Brooks
    Let me rephrase: The Rangers wouldnt be interested in any PACKAGE we could offer that doesnt involve Mauer. I doubt they'd have interest in Morneau. Mike Olt will be up by June 1, and while Arcia is a good prospect, he's not in Profar's stratosphere.
  19. Mr. Brooks
    I think there is probably only one player in our organization that the Rangers would consider trading Profar for, and that is Mauer.
  20. Mr. Brooks
    Tigers over Nats in 7 games.
  21. Mr. Brooks
    This also takes the ~140 extra PA's that Dozier would have gotten, hitting 2 vs. 8, and spreads them instead to Mauer, Morneau, Willy, Doumit, Parmalee, and Plouffe. That is a nice cherry on top.
  22. Mr. Brooks
    It depends on whether you want more RBI's for Joe, or if you want more RBI's for the team. Sure, Mauer's RBI chances could go down slightly (while you are right that he'll get less RBI chances in the 1st inning, you also have to remember he'll get an extra PA every 9 games or so), but if it allows the team as a whole to get more RBI, isn't that what is more important?
  23. Mr. Brooks
    A helpless rookie Kubel standing in against Rivera is the one that will always stand out to me.
  24. Mr. Brooks
    Who would be?
  25. Mr. Brooks
    1) Correct, I was not understating, I literally meant just a little. 2) No, I woudnt look at Meyer the same way. Meyer was purely a prospect, has never thrown an MLB pitch. Many GM's look at prospects as "currency", they don't view them as "players" yet. And the Nats are loaded with young power arms, Meyer was a luxury. To me, if Worley is what he is being presented as, then he's not just a "luxury" to the Phillies. Halladay was hurt and ineffective last year, and is nearing the end of his career. Cliff Lee is getting up there as well, and the Phillies have questionable pitching prospects. The closest thing they have to mlb ready is Pettitbone, and he's a middle to back of the rotation starter at best. 3) Sure, other teams fans might be a little nervous that we gave up on Revere so quick, maybe a little nervous that we know something about Span that we are not saying, etc. But I'm a Twins fan, not a Nats or Phillies fan, so that is not my concern.
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