Mr. Brooks

Heh? Thielbar has been here since May 20th. Obviously one single occurrence is not a fireable offense. These fundamental mistakes have been constant over the last 2 years. This is just one of many examples.

I don't know what games you are watching then, because these mistakes have been constant over the last 2 years.

It doesn't. But you are going to have a lot easier time scoring those 750 runs with a catcher who can OPS .880 than with a catcher who will OPS .700. You admitted that he has more value as a catcher, if u explain in words why, you will probably find yourself making the same argument as me.

It's not that his hits count more as a catcher. It's that his bat has more value as a catcher, because whoever replaces him at catcher is more than likely going to be much less of an offensive asset than whomever Mauer replaces at 1B or 3B or RF. That isn't really something to buy into or not buy into, its pure math. It's just not easy to find a catcher who can hit, but even a league average 1B, 3B or RF is going to have a decent bat.

That is not true at all. Yeshaya Goldfarb is one of the most well respected "stats guy" in all of baseball, and he's been with the Giants for 12 years.

Yep. I don't think I'm being hard on Gardy at all. I'm just pointing out what I see when I watch them. I've been in Gardy's corner, which has not been easy these last couple years. But I can't lie to myself and tell me these things don't exist. They do, there is no escaping it. The manager has to take blame when fundamental mistakes are constantly made. I have changed my stance on Gardy, I think it's time for him to move on.

Rob Neyer sums up the one guy we hired pretty well: I don't see any way around this ... the Twins are way, way behind most of the other good teams in this area. Hiring "a guy," however talented, isn't going to change this. I can tell you stories about other sabermetric-unfriendly teams that have hired guys -- smart guys, all of them -- and then ignored 95 percent of their advice. You wonder why they even bothered. I think sometimes the general managers sincerely believed the information was valuable but just didn't have any idea how to use it; sometimes they were just doing what they thought they were supposed to do ("Hire nerd to play around with numbers: check.")

Again, it's one guy. That puts them way behind the 8 ball compared to other teams. An excavation firm with 1 backhoe cannot move as much earth as an excavation firm with 10 backhoe's. Did you not see where I explicitly said that they use advanced metrics, but not as much as other teams, or did you just choose to ignore it? And that is by their own admission, so I really don't see why we are debating that.

Overpaying by $4 or $5 million for a 6 WAR player is not the same as spending $4 or $5 million on a replacement level player.

They hired 1 guy. What is this supposed to convince me of? I said in my first post that they use it, just not as much as most teams. A team like the Rays or the Red Sox have dozens of stat guys.

I guess the success that the more advanced metric friendly organizations are enjoying must be just luck, eh? And the Twins sudden lack of success must just be bad luck? Embracing statistics changed the entire history of the Boston Red Sox, gave them their first taste of a WS championship in 100 years. It also has allowed the Rays, a true small market team (not a mid market team like us), to thrive in a division with 2 of the biggest payrolls in the sport. Advanced metrics is not voodoo. Its not witchcraft. IMO it's not even at odds with the "eye test". In many ways it's a template for putting what shows up in the "eye test" into data that can be used to compare multiple players. When you use advanced metrics to look back historically, it generally matches up pretty well with who people using the "eye test" considered to be the best. In many cases, certain advanced metrics have been shown to be very accurate predictors of future performances. I really don't get where all the hate for advanced metrics comes from. They are not "made up" numbers. They measure something just like any other metric does. It's up to each person to determine how they wan't to use those numbers. It's one thing to take in as much information you can, and decide what you think is worth using, and what is worth throwing out. But to completely close your mind to it, and not even take any of in, to not even bother to consider any of it, well I just can't understand it. And the teams that choose to operate are, and will continue to fall further and further behind. It will be fun to watch the Twins rebuild versus the Cubs rebuild. Both teams hired their current GM at about the same time, but went in completely different directions. One team hired a more metrics minded, aggressive, young GM, while the other went with the old school, scouting minded, more passive GM. Will be fun to see which one has more success a few years from now.

I don't disagree that his bat plays better at C. That shouldn't even need to be stated. Sure, he'd probably be overpaid a bit at 1B, but not by a ton. Justin would probably have been underpaid had he stayed healthy and continued to hit like he was. So, IMO you split the difference (14.5 and 23), and that is about what Mauer is probably "worth" as a first baseman.

I didn't say it was the coaches fault. I said it has to at least be considered. I won't pretend to know if Anderson is or is not a good pitching coach. I do know that I do not like his style, don't like it one bit. I don't like the theory of always "attacking the strike zone", even on 0-2. Anderson disagrees, he thinks you should never waste a pitch. It's just one of many reasons I don't care for his style.

Because they took an aggressive shot and brought him up straight from AA. It didn't go as well as they hoped, so they started him at AAA the next year, and the rest is history. I don't get why people act like the young man will be destroyed forever if we call him up too soon and he has to go back down for a few weeks. It's the same thing I didn't understand when the explanation for keeping Gibson down was, "we don't want to call him up until he can stay up for good." My question was why? Why is it the end of the world if a guy struggles and has to go down for a few weeks? If a guy is that mentally fragile that it's going to ruin him if he has to go back down once or twice, then eventually he's going to fail no matter what.

I wouldn't go as far as to say they don't use them. But, certainly by their own admission they don't use them very much. Twins thrive without sabermetrics - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Albers is a great story, and he deserves a shot on a 90 loss team. But he's not part of a starting rotation on a playoff caliber team, he doesn't have the stuff. No offense Tim Laudner, I guess I'm just a 'knucklehead'!!

Mark Teixeira?

Mauer's current OPS would rank 3rd in the AL, and 5th in MLB among 1st baseman this year. And his numbers would probably go up a bit without the rigors of catching. Don't laugh. His numbers go down incrementally from OPS after 1 consecutive day catching, to OPS after 2 consecutive days catching, to 3 days, to 4 days, etc. (As I'm sure is the case with all catchers.) If he could gain even 25 pts of OPS by moving out from behind the plate, he'd be a top 3 to 5 1B'man in MLB every year. Obviously his bat has more value at C than 1B, I'm not disputing that. But it's not like he's suddenly a "light hitter" if he moves to 1B, he'd still be right among the league leaders in offensive production at that position as well. Unless of course I'm talking to someone who thinks only HR and RBI matter (I don't know, so sorry if you are not), in that case I obviously cannot make an argument that will change your mind.

For the most part I have been pretty neutral on Gardy. On the one hand, I have thought that while he hasn't had much talent, good coaches get fired all the time in sports. Sometimes it is just time to move on from the coach/manager when you have 3 consecutive terrible seasons, regardless of whether or not it is truly "his fault". Also in this vein, I have thought that if he still had a year remaining, then bring him back, but since his contract is up, I don't see how you justify renewing the contract of a manager based on these results. But, on the other hand, as I said above, he has no talent. What is he supposed to do with this rag tag bunch of non MLB talent? Nobody could win with these guys. To quote Mike Singletary: "Cannot play with them. Cannot win with them. Cannot coach with them. Can't do it. I want winners. I want people that want to win." (One of the all time great press conferences in sports history, if you live in a cave and haven't seen it.) However, it has come to me that there is something that IS in Gardy's hands, and to me it is a fire-able offense. I was reminded of that offense last night, when Theilbar failed to backup home plate. You simply cannot call yourself an MLB team and allow a runner to score from 2nd base on a strikeout. That has nothing to do with talent. You don't get to use the "Gardy has no talent" excuse when things like that happen. The least talented player in the league can be taught to back up his base. It takes no raw talent to do it. This is not an isolated occurrence. Far from it. I have seen more fundamental mistakes in the last 2 years than I have ever seen in my life. Mistakes that have nothing to do with talent. It does not take talent to back up bases, to hit cutoff men, to execute a run down properly, to execute a bunt, etc. To me, that is where Gardy is and should be held accountable. These things fall directly on coaching. What are they working on in ST, if not these things? What are they working on in pregame workouts, if not these things? When these things are a continuing occurrence, over multiple years, at some point it has to fall on the coaching staff's lap. When you have nothing but #5/AAAA starting pitchers, and a laughable lineup, you are not going to win many games, regardless of who your manager is, I understand that. But at some point you have to look at all of these simple, fundamental mistakes that are made far too often by this team, and come to the conclusion that either Gardy is not putting enough emphasis on teaching them, or that the players are simply not listening. Whichever of the two it is, I don't see how you continue with it.

I think you just made his point for him, with the bolded, as in, he left here and got better. When that happens, you have to at least CONSIDER that it could be on the coaches.

The batting average probably has a lot to do with his babip dropping 90 points from his career average. While some of that can be attributed to better defense, it's certainly not 90 points worth! With neutral luck I would think that he would be hitting close to .300. 28% is not "about 1/3" of the time, in fact it's much closer to 1/4 of the time than it is to 1/3 of the time. It is also pretty close to his career norm. It was 26% at low A, and 25.1% at High A. He could be striking out more, or it could be chalked up to SSS. Either way it has to be within the MOE for a couple hundred AB's. If you are going to bring up his slightly increased K rate, I also feel it's only fair to mention his slightly improved BB rate. If his K rate is suddenly such a concern, then how did he become the #3 overall prospect in baseball? Because it's pretty much right in line with his career numbers at every other level. BTW: Just so we are clear, I am not saying the Twins should call him up this year. I'm not even saying that he should start next year on the club. I'm just saying that he COULD be ready as soon as right now. Doesn't mean he is, but I certainly wouldn't claim someone else is wrong if their opinion is that he's not, so my posts are in frustration to other people claiming that I am wrong for thinking he might be.

Trout's AAA time came AFTER his first big league call up.

I have no way of knowing one way or the other about Hicks' work ethic. But, FWIW, I will say that after we drafted him I read many scouting reports raving about his "amazing" work ethic. I am positive that they used that word too, "amazing" work ethic. I know for sure I remember this , because that draft class was when I first started paying attention to prospects, and I looked up as much info as I could find on our first few picks. That doesn't necessarily make it true, many of those "scouting reports" are amateurish at best, but I do recall reading that in more than one of them.

You are right, we don't know if he's ready. My whole argument is not that I know he is, it's that he could be. It's, let's not dismiss it just because of his age. My post was in response to the statement I'm getting tired of reading here: "He's not ready, he's only 20 years old, he'd bat .200 in the MLB." I'm guessing when the time comes, not even the Twins will know for sure if he's "ready". There is probably a lot of guesswork that goes into finally making that call. Do you think the O's knew with 100% certainty that Machado was ready when they made the call? Maybe they did, but I doubt it. Eventually, in every big time prospects career, there will be a line. On one side of that line they are a minor league player, then they get the call to cross that line and become a major league player. Do you think that even the organization knows EXACTLY, to the date, where that line is? I doubt it. You don't wait until your kid is 18 years old before you decide they are old enough to be home alone. When are they ready? Much like prospects, every kid is different. You do your best to teach them, observe them, and one day you make an educated GUESS that, today is the day they are old enough to be home alone. Are you 100% certain that they are ready? Probably not, but at some point that day is going to come, and you can't just wait until you are 100%, absolutely without any doubt ready, because if you do they'll be 17 years old and still have to be babysat. I'm not claiming I know if he's ready. From a far he looks ready, at least offensively, but yes, you are right, I don't know. But, I'm tired of seeing other people state with certainty that they know he's NOT ready. Sano is a special talent. It is so Minnesotan to keep hopes tempered. "He can't possibly be a Trout, Harper, Cabrera like prodigy, we are not that lucky." Guess what, maybe we are. In closing, I'll ask you a question. Do you think, in the history of baseball, any team has ever pulled the trigger too late? Has any team ever waited to call up a prospect, when in hindsight they might have been ready sooner? Obviously, without a time machine (so you can go back in time and try multiple call up dates), we can never prove one way or another exactly when a player is ready. But I'm guessing since GM's are human, and because of the laws of probability, that the answer is yes. If the answer is yes, than it is at least possible that Sano is ready now, even if the Twins aren't sure. That's all I'm saying. They know better than I do, but that doesn't mean they are perfect.

That lottery ticket has even more value if you don't have to pay a million bucks for it. I doubt any team in baseball is going to give him a guaranteed contract next year. A Harden type deal (minor league contract w/ an opt out date) seems more likely to me.