Mr. Brooks

Here is my shot at it. C Suzuki: .232/.285/.341 (.626), 6 HR, 0.3 WAR 92 games C Pinto: .290/.334/.451 (.785), 13 HR, 2.1 WAR 78 games 1B Mauer: .328/.395/.463 (.858), 14 HR, 4.2 WAR 134 games 1B/DH/RF Colabello:.256/.316/.425 (.741), 9 HR, 0.2 WAR, 69 games 1B/DH/RF Parmelee: .225/.296/.340 (.636), 3 HR, -0.2 WAR, 33 games 2B Dozier: .257/.329/.422 (.751), 17 HR, 3.1 WAR, 149 games SS Florimon: .225/.285/.308 (.593), 5 HR, 0.7 WAR, 135 games 3B Plouffe: .253/.319/.425 (.744), 20 HR, 0.9 WAR, 141 games INF Escobar: .235/.285/.299 (.584), 1 HR, 0.0 WAR, 29 games INF Bartlett: .213/.268/.293 (.561), 1 HR, -0.1 WAR, 95 games LF Willingham: .201/.290/.376 (.666), 17 HR, 0.8 WAR, 145 games CF Hicks: .252/.331/.406 (.737), 16 HR, 2.5 WAR, 149 games RF Arcia: .279/.350/.476 (.826), 27 HR, 2.9 WAR, 153 games OF/DH Kubel: .200/.265/.318 (.573), 3 HR, -1.9 WAR, 111 games

I guess I'm not sure how DH'ing on the days he's not catching would affect any of what you just said.

Actually, I'd day keeping the jasons over hermann is a pretty big something. Not because of anything that any of those 3 would or would not do, but because keeping hermann would allow Pinto to play everyday. With a third catcher, Pinto could dh on the days he is not catching. And don't tell me he will without a third catcher. Gardy has a pretty defined track record regarding this, and zebras don't change their stripes.

So why not simply give the team an "extra" draft pick, rather than the signing team's pick? This way the team still gets compensated, but without punishing the signing team.

so I can assume that you are against the nolasco and hughes signings?

Arizona Diamondbacks - 80.5 under Atlanta Braves - 87.5 over Baltimore Orioles - 80.5 over Boston Red Sox - 87.5 under Chicago Cubs - - 69.5 over Chicago White Sox - 75.5 over Cincinnati Reds - 84.5 over Cleveland Indians - 80.5 over Colorado Rockies - 76.5 over Detroit Tigers - 89.5 under Houston Astros - 62.5 over Kansas City Royals - 81.5 over Los Angeles Angels - 86.5 over Los Angeles Dodgers - 92.5 under Miami Marlins - 69.5 under Milwaukee Brewers - 79.5 under Minnesota Twins - 70.5 under New York Mets - 73.5 under New York Yankees - 86.5 over Oakland Athletics - 88.5 under Philadelphia Phillies - 76.5 under Pittsburgh Pirates - 83.5 over San Diego Padres - 78.5 under San Francisco Giants - 86.5 under Seattle Mariners - 81.5 over St. Louis Cardinals - 90.5 over Tampa Bay Rays - 88.5 over Texas Rangers - 86.5 over Toronto Blue Jays - 79.5 under Washington Nationals - 88.5 over Tie breaker: The two AL WC teams will be: Detroit, NYY Tie breaker 2: The two NL WC teams will be: Atlanta, Cincinnati

I'm kind of surprised (and disappointed) that Gonsalves won't start the year in A ball. It seemed to me like he showed enough last year that you maybe try to push him a little bit and see how he handles it.

Frankly, I'm not sure that Kepler gets the "upside" card anymore. He's going into his age 21 season already, and has just 263 mediocre to below average PA's above rookie ball. I'm afraid he needs a breakout season this year to even be considered much of a prospect anymore.

Free agents who are good enough to look for long term deals aren't worried about prospects behind them.

Well last time I checked, Ryan, Anthony, and the rest of the FO personnel are paid to do a job, and paid quite handsomely. I don't know how things work at your job, but I know at my job (and most), I don't get a whole lot of credit for "trying". I get paid for results, and results only. Perhaps if the members of the FO can't figure out a way to sell their team to free agents, they should be replaced with someone who can.

Thanks. Just glad to have spring baseball in the air. No matter how bad the home team may be, baseball season is still the best time of the year.

A) I never claimed that spending the money would equate to a contending team. But in that case dont criticize the players for being EXACTLY who they are. I'm just saying don't fill the stadium full of trash then complain about the smell. Do the other "rebuilding teams" go out and sign guys like Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey to multi year deals? Do they fill out their roster with guys like Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel? For all this talk about rebuilding, there is a chance we start the season with not a single rookie/2nd year guy on the team. Gibson, Hicks, Pinto, Tonkin could all easily join Meyer, Buxton, Santana, et al in the minors. Tell me what other "rebuilding" team is looking at possibly starting the season with no rookie or 2nd year players on their 25 man roster? You can talk all you want about rebuilding, but looking at their actions I don't see much rebuilding, I just see a perennial bad team. Players can only learn so much in the minors.

Except that all of those metrics were aided by his unsustainable strike 3 looking rate. You didnt find it the least bit interesting that a team that values SP as much as the Phillies do would just "throw in" Worley in that trade if they didn't see this coming?

Exactly. If Worley can't crack the rotation this year, when will he? Hopefully by this time next year Gibson and Meyer will be in the rotation, and by then you'll have a couple more young guys knocking on the door, with Nolasco and Hughes signed multiple years, this was the year for him to sink or swim, I don't see a future here for the 'Vanimal'.

I think Barrerio was spot on regarding this today. It's a little phony to assemble a roster full of poor to mediocre players, and then complain when they play poorly or just average. What did you expect when you put together this roster? Did you expect mediocre players to suddenly be someone they are not? Here's an idea, Mr. Antony, go out and spend some of that Target Field money (don't tell me about Nolasco and Hughes, all they did was spend the money that came off the books, nothing more) and put some better players on the field.

The results with the Phillies was the aberration, what we are seeing now is the norm. It wasnt too hard to predict if you look at the numbers outside of the shiny ERA. You cant sustain a K/looking rate like Worley had. Unless you have nasty stuff (which he doesnt), making hitters take strike 3 is not a skill, its just a freak instance of randomness. Add to that, the fact that he isnt committed to baseball, as evidenced by his comments regarding his conditioning last year, and his constant excuses after bad performances, and you have a bad combination. I got ripped pretty hard last year when I predicted this outcome, but it is no big loss if Worley is claimed by another team, I don't see a reason to wait.

Nope, not looking good this week. I will lose money regardless of tonight's game. Oh, and thanks a lot Blair Walsh for missing that extra point, that was fun to lose the over by a half point on a missed XP.

Here are my week 9 picks: CAR to COVER -7.5 vs. ATL. $20 to win $18.18. I don't like this pick very much. Trusting Carolina to cover MORE than a TD against anyone is a tough pill to swallow. But, that said, the Panthers are playing pretty well right now, are at home, and the Falcons are a total mess. If I weren't committed to picking every game (except THU nighters, just don't have time during the week), I'd probably pass on this one. DAL to COVER -10 vs. MIN. $20 to win $17.40. Tony Romo can chuck the ball all over the yard, with his main weakness being untimely turnovers. The Vikings secondary is a mess, and they have never been a team that forces many turnovers, at least not in the passing game. The Cowboys can be run on, but I think they get up early enough to effectively take AP out of the game. MIN/DAL OVER 50.5 PTS. $20 to win $18.18. I like the over here. Dallas could easily score 40+ on this Vikings defense if they wan't to, and after last week I think they will want to. Ponder is terrible, but he's been known for his garbage time TD's at times. NO to COVER -7 @ NYJ. $20 to win $19.04. Another line that I'm not too comfortable with. The Saints have been pretty good this year, in all phases of the game, but which Jets team will show up? If there is a Jeckyl and Hyde team this year it's the Jets. Another game that I probably should pass on. TEN to COVER -3 @ STL. $20 to win $16.66. The Titans have been better this year than I thought they would be, and the Rams are a mess post Bradford. I'm a big believer in Jeff Fisher though, so I'm not super comfortable with this pick, it wouldn't shock me if the Rams win. Looking around, it's trendy to take the UNDER in this game, but my research is not as optimistic in that regard, in fact I'm ALMOST tempted to take the OVER, but I won't. KC to COVER -4 @ BUF. $20 to win $17.40. I've been taking KC all year, which finally burned me last week, but I'm not jumping off the bandwagon just yet. Lucky, easy schedule, fluke wins, always facing a banged up team, blah blah blah. Just because the Chiefs win ugly, does not mean they are an ugly team. I'm going to keep riding them until the lines get out of hand, which clearly they are not yet. SD to WIN @ WSH. $20 to win $18.18. This is a pick 'em game, which seems right to me. It really could go either way. I started taking SD, then canceled and went with Washington, then later went back and flipped back to SD again. The Chargers are coming off a bye, Phillip Rivers has been reborn. Of course, that said, I don't think the Redskins played as bad as the final score showed last week, so who knows, I'm flipping a coin at this point I guess. SD/WSH OVER 52 PTS. $20 to win $18.18. I'm much more confident in this pick than I am the pick 'em. Both these teams have had very high scoring games this year, I think they cover the 52 quite comfortably. One of these teams will win 35-31....I just don't know which one, LOL. OAK to COVER -2.5 vs. PHI. $20 to win $18.18. Off the top of my head, I THINK I have profited on every Raiders game I've bet so far. They are getting no love, and I don't get it. Their defense is legit, and Terrell Pryor, while still a work in progress, is also legit. OAK/PHI UNDER 45 PTS. $20 to win $18.18. I think Vegas is still under the influence of the Eagles early season high scoring games. It didn't take long for NFL defenses to figure out Chip Kelly's offense, especially post Vick. I think this game goes well under 45. Oakland 21, Philadelphia 17. TB to COVER +16 @ SEA. $20 to win $18.18. The Buccs are awful, don't get me wrong. And the Seahawks are really good. Much like the Monkeys, I'm a Believer. But, the 'Hawks find a way to win ugly far more often then their talent suggests they should. I think this line is too high, even in Seattle. TB/SEA UNDER 41 PTS. $20 to win $18.18. Again, Seattle is prone to ugly wins, even against bad teams. Seattle wins 24-14. CLE to COVER +2.5 vs. BALT. $20 to win $18.18. Another game where I went back and forth a few times. I initially insta bet Cleveland, because frankly both teams are bad right now, and when two bad teams meet, you take the points, especially if those points are at home. But, then I realized the Ravens are coming off the bye, as defending SB champs, with what I consider a very good coaching staff. They have also beaten CLE something like 10 or 11 straight times, and 4 or 5 straight in Cleveland. So, I was thinking maybe it's an old team that needed a bye week to get some things straightened out, and will against their "whipping boy". But then I said "screw it" and wen't back to my initial feeling, LOL. Always go with your first instinct.....right? PIT to COVER +6.5 @ NE. $20 to win $18.18. The Pats, and specifically Brady, are really not playing well right now. Of course their is enough talent and leadership, IMO, for that switch to flip at any moment, and my luck it will be today. But, even most of their wins this year have been close. I like the Pats to win a close one. PIT/NE UNDER 43.5 PTS. $20 to win $18.18. My research initially showed that this O/U is about right, so I was going to pass on it. But then I just had a nagging feeling that this had the makings of a very low scoring, ugly game. So, there you have it, this is one of those pure gut picks, that I have no statistical or analytical basis for, we'll see how that turns out! IND to COVER -3 @ HOU. $20 to win $20. What on earth is going on here?!?! Is there something I don't know about this game? Did Andrew Luck fall down an elevator shaft? The Colts are coming off a bye week, which was proceeded by a huge win against Denver. Now they get to face an awful Texans team which is again starting Case Keenam (sp?). AND, on top of that, I am getting even money on my bet! GB to COVER -11 vs. CHI. $20 to win $18.18. The Bears defense is a mess right now, and Cutler is still out. I don't like double digit favorites in most any NFL game, but this is one with only one right answer. Pack win by at least 2 TD's. GB/CHI OVER 51 PTS. $20 to win $18.18. The Packers should be able to move the ball at will, and even without Cutler the Bears have put up points. This one should go well over 51. Packers 38, Bears 24. U/D Parlay: I'm going all out on this one today. I see several underdogs that at least have a decent shot to pull an upset. Obviously some might, many probably won't, which is why I'm getting an almost laughable ROI if all the stars line up, but hey, that's why it's a lotto ticket, right? ATL to WIN @ CAR: As bad as Atlanta looked last week, and with no WR's, they still have Matt Ryan, and Carolina is not an elite team. NYJ to WIN vs. NO: If the 'good' Jets show up, it could happen, right? Maybe? STL to WIN vs. TEN: Rams are at home, and hung tough against Seattle last week. BUF to WIN vs. KC: As much as I love KC this year, they are not going 16-0. This one could be a trap game, on the road, against a team that they should beat, but is not without talent. PHI to WIN @ OAK: I'm trying to come up with reasons why PHI can travel to Oakland and win right now, but let's be hones, I'm just trying to get this jackpot as high as I can with this one. CLE to WIN vs. BALT: Very possible, maybe even likely. PIT to WIN @ NE: Again, very possible, as badly as Brady is playing right now. Not likely though. $20 to win $26,292.76. 6 pt. teaser: CAR to COVER -1.5 vs. ATL, PHI to COVER +8.5 @ OAK, CLE to COVER +8.5 vs. BALT. $20 to win $32. I'm completely excluding the lotto ticket for my final summary, as it's completly absurd. So: $380 to win $358.84. Wish me luck!

I agree, but for a different reason. The theory of the Tampa 2 is to "bend but not break". The thinking is that we don't think you can drive down the field 10+ plays without making a mistake. There was a time when that was probably a correct theory, but the NFL has changed. So many good passing attacks now have perfected the high % passing routes, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, P. Manning, etc. Good offenses in this day and age are perfectly content and able to go on 10+ play TD drives. They won't try to force the deep ball, they will just take the easy 7 to 15 yard passing plays that the Tampa 2 allows, over and over again, all the way down the field. The Tampa 2 defense is completely outdated. I think it's pretty telling that Monte Kiffin himself hardly uses it in the traditional sense anymore, that is really all you need to know.

Yep, you are right Ben. I had my first losing week, but I pretty much broke even outside of the parlay and teaser bets (actually up a couple bucks). Overall last week, I lost $36.50 to bring my running total on the season to a NET PROFIT of $82.84. Picks for this week to follow.

Here are my week 8 picks. My running total on the season is currently at +$119.34. I feel pretty good about this week, as most of my picks seemed fairly easy in my mind. Of course, with the way the NFL goes, that probably means I'll have an awful week, we'll see. SF to COVER -16 @ JAX (London): $20 to win $18.18. As you've heard me say before, I typically take the double digit underdog in the NFL, no matter the teams. And that's what I've been doing most often with Jacksonville. But, I just can't do it anymore. This Jacksonville team is awful, putrid, terrible, etc. 16 points is a lot for any team to cover in the NFL, so I'm not super confident in this pick, but I think it's the right call. SF/JAX UNDER 41 points. $20 to win $18.18. I haven't done too well picking the O/U this year, and if that continues I'll probably stop doing it. But in this one I like the under. Jacksonville scored just 6 points at home against the Chargers last week, so I could easily see them getting shut out against SF in London. At most I think they score 7, so I like this play even if SF scores 30 points. DAL to COVER +3 @ DET. $20 to win $17.40. I guess I just like Dallas more than Vegas does, and like Detroit less than Vegas does. I'm happy to take the +3 here, because I think this should be a "pick 'em" line. By giving Dallas 3 points in Detroit, Vegas is basically saying they think these teams are even on a neutral site, which I disagree with. Dallas is the better team. PHI to COVER -5 vs. NYG. $20 to win $18.18. The Eagles looked pretty bad last week, and the Giants notched their first win of the season, so I can understand Vegas' logic here, but I'm not buying it. I like the Eagles to win by a TD at least at home. Michael Vick is back, and while he might not be 100% right now, I just don't put any faith in the Giants getting a win against the Vikings, so while both teams might be bad, I think the Giants are significantly worse. KC to COVER -7.5 vs. CLE. $20 to win $18.18. It finally burned me last week, but I'm going to keep betting KC, as I think they are underrated. Jason Campbell is starting for Cleveland, it's in Arrowhead, and the Chiefs can pressure the QB. KC/CLE UNDER 39.5 PTS. $20 to win $18.18. This is a pretty small total to get under, but it feels right to me. Kansas City is at home, both teams have pretty good defenses, and KC isn't the type of squad that is going to run up the score. I can easily see a score of something like 21-10 here. NO to COVER -11.5 vs. BUF. $20 to win $18.18. Again I'm betting on a double digit favorite, which I don't love. But I think the Saints are playing pretty good right now, and again, I don't like Buffalo, even if that burned me last week. The one thing that worries me in this one is that BUF can get after the QB, but if the Saints can figure out a way to slow down Mario Williams, I think Brees can march up and down the field all day. NE to COVER -6.5 vs. MIA. $20 to win $18.18. I've done very well this year picking against New England. But now I think the tides have turned, and Vegas is swinging too far in the opposite direction. I've learned so far that you can't wait 1 week to long to make the adjustment. The time to start buying NE is now. Gronk looked great in his return, he should be even better this week. It looks like Amendola will return. The Pats are at home, and the Dolphins are a mess right now. CIN to COVER -5 vs. NYJ: $20 to win $18.18. I feel almost exactly the same way about the Jets as I do the Pats. I've done very well betting on the Jets this year, but I think perception has swung, and I'm going to make the adjustment. The Jets got a huge win last week against the rival Pats, I think they are due for a let down this week. CIN/NYJ UNDER 41.5 PTS. $20 to win $18.18. Both teams have very good defenses, and while the Bengals do have some weapons, and can struggle against mobile QB's, I think the Jets run D will shut down Bernard/Lawfirm, and while I like Dalton/Green, I don't think it will be enough to put up a lot of points if it is the only dimension they have. I like the Bengals to win 24-14. OAK to COVER +2.5 vs. PIT. $20 to win $19.04. I don't like either team, so I'll just take the home team AND the points. That's really all the insight I have here, LOL. WSH to COVER +11.5 @ DEN. $20 to win $18.18. I've made good money so far this year picking against the fan favorite Broncos. While I know that success will eventually end, I don't think that perception swing has happened just yet. RGIII is getting his groove back, and while I don't love this pick with the game being in Denver, I just can't take Denver to cover that many points in this game. WSH/DEN OVER 60 PTS. $20 to win $18.18. Okay, 60 points is a whole lot of points to bet over on, I know that. But, Denver has gone over that total in most of their games this year, and Washington went to 86 last week against a Cutler-less Bears team. I lost my "shootout" cred last week with my PHI/DAL projection, LOL, but I think this time I'll be right. I see both teams putting up 35+ points a piece. ATL to COVER +2 @ ARI. $20 to win $17.40. See my comments last week about teams coming off a game against the Seahawks. Atlanta will destroy the Cardinals here. If I were to pick a "lock" of the week, this would be it this week. GB to COVER -9 @ MIN. $20 to win $18.18. I don't know how this spread is only at 9. Sure it's in Minnesota, but Aaron Rodgers has to be licking his chops looking at this Minnesota secondary. SEA to COVER -12 @ STL. $20 to win $17.40. I hate picking a home NFL team to lose by 2 TD's, and you might know I actually like the Rams this year, but come on, Kellen Clemons is starting this game for the Rams! SEA/STL UNDER 43 PTS. $20 to win $18.18. I don't see how the Rams score a single point in this game, seriously. (Okay, that might be going too far on a limb, but you get the point.) I basically just need Seattle to stay under 40, which I think is likely. Easy money here. U/D Parlay: I'm not seeing many big time upsets this week, so the lotto ticket is not as extreme as usual this week. I'm taking DAL over DET, OAK over PIT, ATL over ARI and NYJ over CIN. (All teams to WIN.) $20 to win $519.84. 6 pt. teaser: KC to COVER -1.5 vs. CLE, OAK to COVER +8.5 vs. PIT, ATL to COVER +8 @ ARI. $20 to win $32. Totals for this week are: $380 to win $859.42.

Is that why the teams with the best regular season records in their respective leagues are now in the World Series?

Posted a meager $25.46 profit this week. Putting my running total at +$119.34.

Yeah, I couldn't have been more wrong on that one.

Yeah with the complete lack of production given by Morneau, both before and after his trade, I don't think he's going to have a whole lot of say in where he goes. He'll likely only get 1 or 2 offers with a guaranteed MLB roster spot.