What exactly do you mean when you say you are not a believer in babip? Babip is not a subjective metric like WAR or UZR or something. Babip is a measured statistic like batting average or stolen bases. And, we have an extremely large sample size of historical data that tells us that babiping. 440 is neither a skill, nor sustainable. Also, your logic is backwards on the XBHs. If a good chunk of his success was XBHs, it would point to a change in approach or swing or something sustainable. Spraying line drives (which is what you need to get XBHs) is not something you can accidentally get lucky and do. Fifteen hoppers through the infield and Texas league bloopers ARE something that any major leaguer can get lucky and do on any given at bat. Yes, hits are hits in the sense that they help the club in that given moment, and the player doesn't have to give them back, but some hits are skill and some are fluke luck. That's why they play so many games in baseball, and at some point that babip will normalize.