J-Dog Dungan

I don't see the Twins putting Parmelee in RF. It decreases their defense even more when Willingham is in left, and he didn't play a single game in RF down in AAA this year. I also see the Twins trading Morneau if they can get a good deal for him, especially with how weak the FA 1B market is this offseason.

The real problem is is that the MI FA situation is the worst in a LOOOONNNG time. There are exactly 0 MI FA that anyone would want to give a major contract this offseason.

Yeah, I forgot about the Astros coming to the AL West. Still, I think the West is becoming a division to be reckoned with.

If the Twins could get Shields for Span and Johnson for Revere plus a couple low prospects, do both deals and let Mastroianni handle CF until Hicks is ready. Really? I can see maybe Span and a mid level prospect for Shields. But Revere for Johnson? First of all the Marlins need pitching just as bad as we do. Why would they give up their ACE? Seems like a lot of people on here are under the belief that when you throw a quarter in a wishing well their dreams will come true. Well hey everyone....WE ARE NOT GETTING JOSH JOHNSON. Shields is a possibility but i cant see that either. they have Desmond Jennings groomed for center field, Zobrist who can play left or right, and Matt Joyce as well. They (the Marlins) might need pitching as bad as we do, but if they see a chance to improve their team (ala Johan Santana except actually getting valued prospects), then 8.5/10 you take the deal. If we give them (the Rays) Span, they can put Jennings on the bench, where his stats really say he should belong if a Denard Span came along, not to mention the defensive stability going from B.J. Upton to a guy like Span.

Well, the Twins have to have SOME claim to success this year, and by claiming one of the scrappiest playas to ever wear their uni in their transaction report 6 years later, I believe that if the Orioles win the World Series, the Twins should get 1/25 of the trophy.

For too long, the East has been known as the power division in the AL. Everyone knows that the Central is a "weak" division, and has really had a hard time in the playoffs. There were usually two playoff teams to come out of the divison (for the last decade, the Yanks and Sox), and they had a good time of it. Going back to 2000, the AL has won the World Series six times. Of those six times, four of them came from the AL East, and they were the Yanks (twice) and the Sox (twice). This string of success is now being challenged by a newly powerful AL Division, the West. I say this because there were two teams that were expected to (and by expected to I mean somehow play the World Series against each other) make the playoffs from this division, and only one of the two that was expected to made it in. The Angels, with offseason acquisitions in Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, were suddenly considered World Series candidates after their acquisition of those two. They "disappointingly" won "only" 89 games (still more than the Central Divison Champs Tigers), and missed the playoffs. The Mariners, not really ever considered for the playoff picture, dealt the face of their franchise, Ichiro, to the Yankees, which has worked out better for the Yankees than the last trade these two teams made (see Michael Pineda), and they won 75 games, more than the Royals, Twins, and Cleveland. The Rangers, who also became even bigger (if it is even possible) candidates to go to the World Series for the third straight year after they signed Yu Darvish out of Japan. After a season filled with injuries to key players (especially in their pitching staff) and the impending free agency of Josh Hamilton, the Rangers collapsed down the stretch, winning just 3 of their last 10 games. They fell to the Wild Card and were eliminated by the scrappy-as-hell Baltimore Orioles. The Oakland A's were never expected to contend in this division. Picked to finish 3rd or 4th by nearly everybody, they had one of their Moneyball-esqe second halfs (with the best record since June 30, I believe, but don't quote me on that) and defeated the Rangers in the race for the AL West Division crown. They did this despite having suspensions and injuries to key pitchers, one of the worst batting averages in the game, and ending the year with an all-rookie pitching staff. They are currently down 2-0 in the ALDS to the Tigers, but never count the A's out. They have been coming back from worse all season long. While the Yankees may have the best record in the AL, the fact that every team in the West won 75+ games is just astounding. Move over AL East, here comes the West.

For too long, the East has been known as the power division in the AL. Everyone knows that the Central is a "weak" division, and has really had a hard time in the playoffs. There were usually two playoff teams to come out of the divison (for the last decade, the Yanks and Sox), and they had a good time of it. Going back to 2000, the AL has won the World Series six times. Of those six times, four of them came from the AL East, and they were the Yanks (twice) and the Sox (twice). This string of success is now being challenged by a newly powerful AL Division, the West. I say this because there were two teams that were expected to (and by expected to I mean somehow play the World Series against each other) make the playoffs from this division, and only one of the two that was expected to made it in. The Angels, with offseason acquisitions in Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, were suddenly considered World Series candidates after their acquisition of those two. They "disappointingly" won "only" 89 games (still more than the Central Divison Champs Tigers), and missed the playoffs. The Mariners, not really ever considered for the playoff picture, dealt the face of their franchise, Ichiro, to the Yankees, which has worked out better for the Yankees than the last trade these two teams made (see Michael Pineda), and they won 75 games, more than the Royals, Twins, and Cleveland. The Rangers, who also became even bigger (if it is even possible) candidates to go to the World Series for the third straight year after they signed Yu Darvish out of Japan. After a season filled with injuries to key players (especially in their pitching staff) and the impending free agency of Josh Hamilton, the Rangers collapsed down the stretch, winning just 3 of their last 10 games. They fell to the Wild Card and were eliminated by the scrappy-as-hell Baltimore Orioles. The Oakland A's were never expected to contend in this division. Picked to finish 3rd or 4th by nearly everybody, they had one of their Moneyball-esqe second halfs (with the best record since June 30, I believe, but don't quote me on that) and defeated the Rangers in the race for the AL West Division crown. They did this despite having suspensions and injuries to key pitchers, one of the worst batting averages in the game, and ending the year with an all-rookie pitching staff. They are currently down 2-0 in the ALDS to the Tigers, but never count the A's out. They have been coming back from worse all season long. While the Yankees may have the best record in the AL, the fact that every team in the West won 75+ games is just astounding. Move over AL East, here comes the West.

It's going to take more than Span to get Shields. It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings. It would probably take Span, and maybe a couple throw-in pitchers that the Rays will somehow be able to make more productive (like Swarzak and Duensing?). If they ask for Span and a top prospect, then gods no. Yeah, a healthy Scott Baker who strikes out those half a batter more in "the toughest division in the AL."

You could also go the way of saying that the fact that the Rays were so close to making the playoffs this year makes them want a bat like Justin Morneau or Span or Willingham even more now and they would be willing to deal from their extremely absurd pitching depth as well.

From the way the broadcasters described it, it was far enough into the outfield that a runner would consider tagging and trying to score on it if his team really needed a run.

With the end of the 2012 season (thank goodness it is finally over), I believe now would be a good time to start discussing the possible candidates for the Twins to choose with their fourth overall pick next year. The prospects that I have heard the most about are Mark Appel, Ryne Stanek, and, just recently, Seth Manaea (I am only mentioning pitchers because I can really only see the Twins drafting a pitcher in the 4 slot. Appel, who was drafted this year at #8 (probably because he is represented by Boras), and didn't sign because he was looking for more than any team was willing to risk. Stanek is a good lefty that was drafted in 2010 by the Mariners, didn't sign, and just missed the cutoff for the 2012 draft, so he is entering in this draft and is looking like the #2 RHP option (could jump to #1 with a great performance this year) behind Appel. Manaea has just entered the conversation with a monster Cape Cod season. He is looking like he could be the top lefty taken in the draft this year. Anybody else want to chime in? go right ahead

Yeah, i totally understand the risk with Hamilton. Honestly, that is his biggest knock right now. Out of all the free agents this year, he is probably the most volatile. In regards to Upton, there is a reason why the Rays don't think they will be able to bring him back (he's gettin expensive!) I, to be perfectly honest, don't know much about Bourn, but I think that if he is being mentioned in the same sentence as people who are worth $15 million, he must be pretty good.

I think the fact that the Twins have had such a dearth of good pitching and having healthy pitching prospects in their system over the last few years, it is easy for rankers to kinda unconsciously give them the heave-ho when deciding who to rank.

Any reason for that? Hamilton, while he will always have concerns surrounding his background, has proven that he can have years like this year and should for several years to come.

By now, most people on this site should have heard about TR saying that the pitching market "wasn't particularly deep this offseason." Now, looking at the list of FA, it is actually probably the strongest area in FA this offseason. I mean, the biggest names in FA that aren't pitchers are probably Napoli, Hamilton, Swisher, and LaRoche. That's it (in my opinion). Seriously. While Hamilton and Napoli are sure to get attention (especially Hamilton), I just don't see there being much drama outside of the pitching market. I would love to debate about who you think will be the biggest names to come onto the market this offseason.

Less than a year, actually. They fired Smith a month into the offseason last year.

Any bets about what Morneau's future will be with the team now that he has expressed disappointment with the team for getting rid of Vavra? Now accepting bets that Mornie will now be traded this offseason (although that might send the wrong message).

I was one of his biggest fans while he was with the Twins, which is why I find this story so sad. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/172601141.html This is so depressing, I don't even know what to think about it. Please pray for the Neshek family.

Yeah, for those who were saying that this isn't a major shakeup is just kinda wrong. LVEN3's updated post states that Rick McWane, Rick Stelmaszek, Steve Liddle, and Jerry White have been let go, and Vavra and Ullger will be overseeing infield and outfield instruction, respectively.

Here is my last blog about the playoffs series', at least until the 1-game wild cards are done tomorrow. The Rangers, who looked like the strongest team in the West (and probably in the AL) for most of the season, got a rude awakening when the Oakland A's slipped by them to claim the AL West Championship, which leaves them to deal with the Orioles, who are a Cinderella team in their own right. Playing in one of the stronger divisions in the AL, and one of the strongest in the Majors, the Orioles really hung with the Yanks through the whole season, only losing the chance to possibly claim the division title on the second-to-last day of the season. vs. Offense: Everyone knows about the Rangers offense. Hamilton was challenging Miggy for the HR title with three to play, Beltre was solid for most of the season, and everybody was contributing. In 7 games between the two clubs, the Orioles went 2-5 and was outscored 56-24. Yeah, so it was either the hitting cranking on the pitching, or...I don't even know. So, just because of that, the Rangers are (in my book anyway) kinda expected to jump all over the Orioles, especially with the Rangers looking to avenge the last two years' depressing endings. In the stat department, the Rangers this year have Beltre, Hamilton, Cruz, and Napoli, all of whom have hit over 20 HR, with Beltre hitting 30+ and Hamilton 40+. While that is impressive, the Orioles also have big boppers, as they had five players this year get over 20 HR: Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Reynolds, Matt Weiters, and J.J. Hardy, with Davis and Jones both hitting 30+. The Rangers have absolutely abused Orioles pitching this year, and I don't see this as not continuing tomorrow, as the Rangers cling to their hopes of reaching their third straight World Series Advantage: Rangers Defense: Despite the recent, and somewhat inexplicable, play of Josh Hamilton in center field (contract pressure getting to him?), the Rangers have a really good fielding team (why wouldn't they, with Wash as their head coach.) They are in the top 5 in fielding percentage, have committed the 4th fewest errors in all baseball (85), are fairly middle of the pack in SB allowed, are near the bottom in catching runners stealing, are 5th highest in SB%, and are middle of the pack again in passed balls and wild pitches. The Orioles, never really known as a defense-first team, are in the bottom third in fielding percentage, are in the top 1/2 in errors, are 3rd to last in SB allowed and stolen base % (mostly because of Weiters behind the plate) but somehow are in the bottom half in caught stealings. The Orioles don't have people steal on them much, but when they do, they are really good at cutting them down as they have one of the better catchers in the AL on their team. The Rangers have a much better fielding team overall (Beltre, Hamilton, and even Cruz are perennial contenders for gold gloves) and have Ron Washington, a former infielder in the Bigs, as their manager. Advantage: Rangers Pitching: This has been a bit of a shaky spot for Wash's crew this year. Their Japanese import, Darvish, has been shaky all year, but has come on late. Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz both have had Tommy John and are out for all of this year and probably part, if not all, of next year. Still, they have gotten good pitching from other sources. Their trade for Ryan Dempster, while initially seemed shaky, has turned into a good one. Matt Harrison, Darvish, and Holland lead the team in starts and wins, so they have survived with a moderately good bullpen. The Orioles, on the other hand, have what is probably the shakiest rotation in the postseason, even shakier than the A's almost-all rookie rotation. They have exactly one pitcher who has more than 10 wins (Wei-Yin Chen, at 12). They have three starters who have started more than 10 games with an ERA under 4. Their bullpen is their saving grace. They have very few pitchers in there who have an ERA over 3.50, and their relief staff has accounted for over 30 wins. Both teams have had their troubles with their starting staff, but the Rangers have just had better years from more pitchers Advantage: Rangers Overall: The Rangers are really the clear bet to take in this game, but don't count out the Orioles. Despite playing in a very tough division, they found a way to win enough games just to get here. Prediction: Rangers win an unexpected pitchers duel and move on to face the Yanks in Arlington. Here are the posts to my previous predictions of the set matchups in this year's playoffs: Braves vs. Cards: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1987-Playoffs-pt-2 Giants vs. Reds: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1975-Playoffs-pt-1 Tigers vs. A's: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1989-Playoffs-pt-3 P.S. Don't take these predictions as what is going to happen. This is just what I, a baseball fan at heart, believe what will happen. Any money you may bet and lose as a result of these posts is your own fault. If you want an expert's opinion on what they opine is going to happen, hop over to ESPN.com with an Insider's pass to read to your heart's content.

Here is my last blog about the playoffs series', at least until the 1-game wild cards are done tomorrow. The Rangers, who looked like the strongest team in the West (and probably in the AL) for most of the season, got a rude awakening when the Oakland A's slipped by them to claim the AL West Championship, which leaves them to deal with the Orioles, who are a Cinderella team in their own right. Playing in one of the stronger divisions in the AL, and one of the strongest in the Majors, the Orioles really hung with the Yanks through the whole season, only losing the chance to possibly claim the division title on the second-to-last day of the season. vs. Offense: Everyone knows about the Rangers offense. Hamilton was challenging Miggy for the HR title with three to play, Beltre was solid for most of the season, and everybody was contributing. In 7 games between the two clubs, the Orioles went 2-5 and was outscored 56-24. Yeah, so it was either the hitting cranking on the pitching, or...I don't even know. So, just because of that, the Rangers are (in my book anyway) kinda expected to jump all over the Orioles, especially with the Rangers looking to avenge the last two years' depressing endings. In the stat department, the Rangers this year have Beltre, Hamilton, Cruz, and Napoli, all of whom have hit over 20 HR, with Beltre hitting 30+ and Hamilton 40+. While that is impressive, the Orioles also have big boppers, as they had five players this year get over 20 HR: Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Reynolds, Matt Weiters, and J.J. Hardy, with Davis and Jones both hitting 30+. The Rangers have absolutely abused Orioles pitching this year, and I don't see this as not continuing tomorrow, as the Rangers cling to their hopes of reaching their third straight World Series Advantage: Rangers Defense: Despite the recent, and somewhat inexplicable, play of Josh Hamilton in center field (contract pressure getting to him?), the Rangers have a really good fielding team (why wouldn't they, with Wash as their head coach.) They are in the top 5 in fielding percentage, have committed the 4th fewest errors in all baseball (85), are fairly middle of the pack in SB allowed, are near the bottom in catching runners stealing, are 5th highest in SB%, and are middle of the pack again in passed balls and wild pitches. The Orioles, never really known as a defense-first team, are in the bottom third in fielding percentage, are in the top 1/2 in errors, are 3rd to last in SB allowed and stolen base % (mostly because of Weiters behind the plate) but somehow are in the bottom half in caught stealings. The Orioles don't have people steal on them much, but when they do, they are really good at cutting them down as they have one of the better catchers in the AL on their team. The Rangers have a much better fielding team overall (Beltre, Hamilton, and even Cruz are perennial contenders for gold gloves) and have Ron Washington, a former infielder in the Bigs, as their manager. Advantage: Rangers Pitching: This has been a bit of a shaky spot for Wash's crew this year. Their Japanese import, Darvish, has been shaky all year, but has come on late. Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz both have had Tommy John and are out for all of this year and probably part, if not all, of next year. Still, they have gotten good pitching from other sources. Their trade for Ryan Dempster, while initially seemed shaky, has turned into a good one. Matt Harrison, Darvish, and Holland lead the team in starts and wins, so they have survived with a moderately good bullpen. The Orioles, on the other hand, have what is probably the shakiest rotation in the postseason, even shakier than the A's almost-all rookie rotation. They have exactly one pitcher who has more than 10 wins (Wei-Yin Chen, at 12). They have three starters who have started more than 10 games with an ERA under 4. Their bullpen is their saving grace. They have very few pitchers in there who have an ERA over 3.50, and their relief staff has accounted for over 30 wins. Both teams have had their troubles with their starting staff, but the Rangers have just had better years from more pitchers Advantage: Rangers Overall: The Rangers are really the clear bet to take in this game, but don't count out the Orioles. Despite playing in a very tough division, they found a way to win enough games just to get here. Prediction: Rangers win an unexpected pitchers duel and move on to face the Yanks in Arlington. Here are the posts to my previous predictions of the set matchups in this year's playoffs: Braves vs. Cards: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1987-Playoffs-pt-2 Giants vs. Reds: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1975-Playoffs-pt-1 Tigers vs. A's: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1989-Playoffs-pt-3 P.S. Don't take these predictions as what is going to happen. This is just what I, a baseball fan at heart, believe what will happen. Any money you may bet and lose as a result of these posts is your own fault. If you want an expert's opinion on what they opine is going to happen, hop over to ESPN.com with an Insider's pass to read to your heart's content.

Now, to the AL. The final day of the AL was quite a wild one, with all the scenarios that could have played out, but it never really turned into an epic turn-everything-on-its head Day 162 as last year. The day left the A's (what the heck?) on top of the AL West, the Rangers falling to the one-game playoff between the Wild Cards, the Yankees obliterating the Red Sox in Bobby V's last game there to clinch the East, and the Orioles going VERY quietly against the Rays to claim the second wild-card spot. I will start with the upcoming divisional series match-up between the A's and Tigers. During the regular season, the Tigers won the season series between the two, 4-3, but the A's have home-field advantage because they won 6 more games than the Tigers. vs. Offense: Again, there is a player (this time on the Tigers) that makes me want to give this category right to that team (that player being Miggy). Just saying, if you earn the Triple Crown, you are getting some respect out of this Twins fan (for the first and only time ever). And again, that would be ignoring the statistical side of things. As I just mentioned, the Tigers have one of the best players in the Majors on their team, and his name is Miggy (I just refuse to call him by his real name for no reason apparent to me.) Now, since the All-Star Break, the Tigers are hitting .267 with 81 HR, 330 RBI's, over 500 K's, 263 BB's, and an OPS of .763. The Athletics, however have hit a mere .252, but with 112 HR (which leads the Majors), 374 RBI's, 704 K's, 255 BB's, and an OPS of .765. The Oakland A's lead the Majors in two very distinct categories since the Break, one good (leaders in HR hit) and one not so good (704 K's, as part of a season where they broke the record for K's in a season by one team, if I am not mistaken). Miggy is leading the charge for the Tigers, and with Fielder at his side, those two have the firepower to take over the series. The A's, though, have gotten key support from unlikely sources all season, and they will look for the same unknowns to keep their offensive attack going. Advantage: Leaning Tigers (ducks) Defensive: Here is where I knew the Tigers would have trouble with having Fielder and Cabrera in the same infield (unfortunately, not enough to keep them out of the playoffs), and I was right (mostly). Somehow, the Twins actually have a higher fielding percentage than the A's, and the same fielding percentage as the Tigers, which is not a good sign if you're a playoff team and there are teams who are losing 90+ games who are fielding as well as or better than you are. The Tigers could have a problem against the A's, as their catchers are giving up a steal percentage just south of .750 (A's are around .690), and the A's, when they have been given the green light, they get the stolen base nearly 80% of the time. Yikes! The A's have also given up fewer passed balls and wild pitches than the Tigers, and those two can be killer in the postseason where every base counts I am looking at this to be the time where the Tiger's fielding deficiencies finally catch up to their abilities on offense. Advantage: A's, most certainly. Pitching: Ah, pitching, the Achilles heel of so many teams. The A's have had even more turnover in their pitching staff than the Twins had this year, but it doesn't seem to have slowed them down a bit. If nothing has changed since a few days ago, I believe that the A's will be the first team ever to go into the playoffs with an all-rookie pitching staff. Quite the first season, eh? The Tigers, on the other hand, have had somewhat more success, mostly because of two pitchers, the AL K leader for most of the season, and Justin Verlander (didn't see that one coming? Neither did I.) The Tigers have been blessed with the top 2 pitchers in K's this year, Verlander and Max Scherzer, who for IP/K ratio kicks Verlander's butt up and down Motor City (Scherzer has thrown over 50 innings less than Verlander and has only 8 fewer K's). This 1-2 combo in K's leads the Tigers starters to an ERA advantage over the A's by about .04 points. Statistically, the Tigers starters have a 63-51 record with a 3.76 ERA in just under 1000 innings, have given up 99 HR, have K'd exactly 900, walked just 263, have a BAA of .260, and a WHIP of 1.28. Their relievers are just about the same. They have a 25-23 record, with an ERA of 3.79 with just under 460 IP, have given up 47 HR (yikes!), have K'd 433, have a BAA of .249, and a WHIP of 1.31. The A's have been just as good, if not even better. Their starters come into the postseason with a record of 64-54, with an ERA of exactly 3.80 in 958 innings, have given up 102 HR, have K'd 667, walked only 253 (league leaders), have a BAA of .264, and a WHIP of 1.28. Their relievers have been among the best in the game, considering. They have a record of 30-14, a miniscule 2.94 ERA (second behind the Rays, who else?), have thrown 512 innings, have given up 45 HR's, have K'd 469, walked 209, have a BAA of .209 (second behind the Rays again), and have a WHIP of 1.17 (second, again to the Rays.) The Tigers have the "name" advantage in that they have Verlander and other "established" veterans on their squad, where the A's are relying on rookies and veterans who have been playing out of their minds, especially in the bullpen. Advantage: A's Overall: The Tigers have a slight, but definite advantage in the hitting department, and their strikeout pitchers should have a field day with the A's' strikeout-prone lineup, but the A's pitching staff is playing like established vets all, and the fact that they don't have to deal with Miggy and Fielder in the corners is a definate plus in the defense game Prediction: A's in 5. Long and hard, this series will last all five games, but the A's 'pen will outlast the Tigers and give the A's a series victory. Here are the links to my first two playoff predictions, with another one on the way, with the rest to follow as each series concludes: Braves vs. Cardinals: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1987-Playoffs-pt-2 Reds vs. Giants: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1975-Playoffs-pt-1

Now, to the AL. The final day of the AL was quite a wild one, with all the scenarios that could have played out, but it never really turned into an epic turn-everything-on-its head Day 162 as last year. The day left the A's (what the heck?) on top of the AL West, the Rangers falling to the one-game playoff between the Wild Cards, the Yankees obliterating the Red Sox in Bobby V's last game there to clinch the East, and the Orioles going VERY quietly against the Rays to claim the second wild-card spot. I will start with the upcoming divisional series match-up between the A's and Tigers. During the regular season, the Tigers won the season series between the two, 4-3, but the A's have home-field advantage because they won 6 more games than the Tigers. vs. Offense: Again, there is a player (this time on the Tigers) that makes me want to give this category right to that team (that player being Miggy). Just saying, if you earn the Triple Crown, you are getting some respect out of this Twins fan (for the first and only time ever). And again, that would be ignoring the statistical side of things. As I just mentioned, the Tigers have one of the best players in the Majors on their team, and his name is Miggy (I just refuse to call him by his real name for no reason apparent to me.) Now, since the All-Star Break, the Tigers are hitting .267 with 81 HR, 330 RBI's, over 500 K's, 263 BB's, and an OPS of .763. The Athletics, however have hit a mere .252, but with 112 HR (which leads the Majors), 374 RBI's, 704 K's, 255 BB's, and an OPS of .765. The Oakland A's lead the Majors in two very distinct categories since the Break, one good (leaders in HR hit) and one not so good (704 K's, as part of a season where they broke the record for K's in a season by one team, if I am not mistaken). Miggy is leading the charge for the Tigers, and with Fielder at his side, those two have the firepower to take over the series. The A's, though, have gotten key support from unlikely sources all season, and they will look for the same unknowns to keep their offensive attack going. Advantage: Leaning Tigers (ducks) Defensive: Here is where I knew the Tigers would have trouble with having Fielder and Cabrera in the same infield (unfortunately, not enough to keep them out of the playoffs), and I was right (mostly). Somehow, the Twins actually have a higher fielding percentage than the A's, and the same fielding percentage as the Tigers, which is not a good sign if you're a playoff team and there are teams who are losing 90+ games who are fielding as well as or better than you are. The Tigers could have a problem against the A's, as their catchers are giving up a steal percentage just south of .750 (A's are around .690), and the A's, when they have been given the green light, they get the stolen base nearly 80% of the time. Yikes! The A's have also given up fewer passed balls and wild pitches than the Tigers, and those two can be killer in the postseason where every base counts I am looking at this to be the time where the Tiger's fielding deficiencies finally catch up to their abilities on offense. Advantage: A's, most certainly. Pitching: Ah, pitching, the Achilles heel of so many teams. The A's have had even more turnover in their pitching staff than the Twins had this year, but it doesn't seem to have slowed them down a bit. If nothing has changed since a few days ago, I believe that the A's will be the first team ever to go into the playoffs with an all-rookie pitching staff. Quite the first season, eh? The Tigers, on the other hand, have had somewhat more success, mostly because of two pitchers, the AL K leader for most of the season, and Justin Verlander (didn't see that one coming? Neither did I.) The Tigers have been blessed with the top 2 pitchers in K's this year, Verlander and Max Scherzer, who for IP/K ratio kicks Verlander's butt up and down Motor City (Scherzer has thrown over 50 innings less than Verlander and has only 8 fewer K's). This 1-2 combo in K's leads the Tigers starters to an ERA advantage over the A's by about .04 points. Statistically, the Tigers starters have a 63-51 record with a 3.76 ERA in just under 1000 innings, have given up 99 HR, have K'd exactly 900, walked just 263, have a BAA of .260, and a WHIP of 1.28. Their relievers are just about the same. They have a 25-23 record, with an ERA of 3.79 with just under 460 IP, have given up 47 HR (yikes!), have K'd 433, have a BAA of .249, and a WHIP of 1.31. The A's have been just as good, if not even better. Their starters come into the postseason with a record of 64-54, with an ERA of exactly 3.80 in 958 innings, have given up 102 HR, have K'd 667, walked only 253 (league leaders), have a BAA of .264, and a WHIP of 1.28. Their relievers have been among the best in the game, considering. They have a record of 30-14, a miniscule 2.94 ERA (second behind the Rays, who else?), have thrown 512 innings, have given up 45 HR's, have K'd 469, walked 209, have a BAA of .209 (second behind the Rays again), and have a WHIP of 1.17 (second, again to the Rays.) The Tigers have the "name" advantage in that they have Verlander and other "established" veterans on their squad, where the A's are relying on rookies and veterans who have been playing out of their minds, especially in the bullpen. Advantage: A's Overall: The Tigers have a slight, but definite advantage in the hitting department, and their strikeout pitchers should have a field day with the A's' strikeout-prone lineup, but the A's pitching staff is playing like established vets all, and the fact that they don't have to deal with Miggy and Fielder in the corners is a definate plus in the defense game Prediction: A's in 5. Long and hard, this series will last all five games, but the A's 'pen will outlast the Tigers and give the A's a series victory. Here are the links to my first two playoff predictions, with another one on the way, with the rest to follow as each series concludes: Braves vs. Cardinals: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1987-Playoffs-pt-2 Reds vs. Giants: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1975-Playoffs-pt-1

Or not ... we could just see a couple of token changes. Token changes? Did YOU have any idea that Stelly's job was on the chopping block? This seems to me like the start of a coaching overhaul the size of which I myself haven't seen in my tender years as a Twins fan.

With all the craziness that has surrounded the final day of regular season baseball this year, I thought it would be smart to wait to post the rest of these until I was sure of the matchups. I will now begin a rapid-fire posting over the next day to cover all of the first playoff matchups, and doing new ones when the series advances to the next round. In this my second post, I will continue with the NL and look at the match-up between the Cardinals and Braves in the NL wild-card playoff matchup. vs. Offense: I might be tempted to give this category to the Braves just because Chipper Jones is in his final playing season of baseball. Unfortunately, that would overlook the abysmal 2nd half the Braves are having offensively. Since the All- Star Break, they are hitting a dismal .234, with 65 HR, 288 RBI's, and an OPS of .683. Yeah, not so good in the second half. The Cards have been doing much better since the half-way point of the season, hitting at a.268 clip, with 63 HR, 322 RBI's, and an OPS of .740. Going by the second half stats, which are more likely from my point of view to be the stats that mirror the stats in the postseason, I would say that the Cards have had a much more solid second-half than the Braves have, offensively anyway. Advantage: Cardinals Defense: I would say that these two teams defensively are probably the closest any two teams in the playoffs this year can be. While the Braves are ahead in FP, .986 to .983 due mostly to committing 21 fewer errors than the Cardinals, the Cardinals have turned more double plays, not to mention have Yadier Molina behind the plate, which leads them to give up nearly 16% fewer stolen bases than the Braves, as well as the lead the Cardinals enjoy when passed balls and wild pitches are measured. The Braves commit fewer errors than the Cardinals, but the Cardinal's backstop is a guy you don't want to cross if you are a base-stealer (and a good batterymate for pitchers). Very, very close between these two, but I will take the extra errors over the fewer WP's and passed balls Advantage: Cardinals, but it is sooooo close. Pitching: These stats cover the whole season, and it is very clear from both the bullpen and starting staff who has the better pitching rotation. Let's begin with the two team's starters. The Braves's starters are 69-54 with a 3.75 ERA over 959 IP, with 106 HR given up, and a WHIP of 1.25. The Cards's starters are 71-47 with a 3.62 ERA over 989 IP, with 79 HR given up and a WHIP of 1.27. Now to the relief corp for each team. The Braves' relievers are 25-14 with a 2.76 ERA over 486 IP, with 39 HR given up and a WHIP of 1.19. The Cards' relievers are 17-27 with a 3.90 ERA over 473 IP, with 55 HR given up and a WHIP of 1.27. When it comes to starting pitching, I give the advantage easily to the Cardinals. The problem is, any bullpen in the playoffs has to be the best of the best, and the Cards' pen has been anything but this year, which could give them troubles in late-inning, high pressure situations if they don't have the right guy, and the fact that the Braves' bullpen has been as good as it has been gives me a good feeling about their pitching staff during their postseason run. Advantage: Braves Overall: This is a one-game match, so it is winner-take-all mano-a-mano slugfest. These two teams have this one game to prove their qualities to be better than the other Prediction for this game: Braves win and Chipper has a hand in driving in the winning run to advance the Braves to the next round. Here is the link over to my prediction for the Giants and Reds series: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1975-Playoffs-pt-1