J-Dog Dungan

With all the craziness that has surrounded the final day of regular season baseball this year, I thought it would be smart to wait to post the rest of these until I was sure of the matchups. I will now begin a rapid-fire posting over the next day to cover all of the first playoff matchups, and doing new ones when the series advances to the next round. In this my second post, I will continue with the NL and look at the match-up between the Cardinals and Braves in the NL wild-card playoff matchup. vs. Offense: I might be tempted to give this category to the Braves just because Chipper Jones is in his final playing season of baseball. Unfortunately, that would overlook the abysmal 2nd half the Braves are having offensively. Since the All- Star Break, they are hitting a dismal .234, with 65 HR, 288 RBI's, and an OPS of .683. Yeah, not so good in the second half. The Cards have been doing much better since the half-way point of the season, hitting at a.268 clip, with 63 HR, 322 RBI's, and an OPS of .740. Going by the second half stats, which are more likely from my point of view to be the stats that mirror the stats in the postseason, I would say that the Cards have had a much more solid second-half than the Braves have, offensively anyway. Advantage: Cardinals Defense: I would say that these two teams defensively are probably the closest any two teams in the playoffs this year can be. While the Braves are ahead in FP, .986 to .983 due mostly to committing 21 fewer errors than the Cardinals, the Cardinals have turned more double plays, not to mention have Yadier Molina behind the plate, which leads them to give up nearly 16% fewer stolen bases than the Braves, as well as the lead the Cardinals enjoy when passed balls and wild pitches are measured. The Braves commit fewer errors than the Cardinals, but the Cardinal's backstop is a guy you don't want to cross if you are a base-stealer (and a good batterymate for pitchers). Very, very close between these two, but I will take the extra errors over the fewer WP's and passed balls Advantage: Cardinals, but it is sooooo close. Pitching: These stats cover the whole season, and it is very clear from both the bullpen and starting staff who has the better pitching rotation. Let's begin with the two team's starters. The Braves's starters are 69-54 with a 3.75 ERA over 959 IP, with 106 HR given up, and a WHIP of 1.25. The Cards's starters are 71-47 with a 3.62 ERA over 989 IP, with 79 HR given up and a WHIP of 1.27. Now to the relief corp for each team. The Braves' relievers are 25-14 with a 2.76 ERA over 486 IP, with 39 HR given up and a WHIP of 1.19. The Cards' relievers are 17-27 with a 3.90 ERA over 473 IP, with 55 HR given up and a WHIP of 1.27. When it comes to starting pitching, I give the advantage easily to the Cardinals. The problem is, any bullpen in the playoffs has to be the best of the best, and the Cards' pen has been anything but this year, which could give them troubles in late-inning, high pressure situations if they don't have the right guy, and the fact that the Braves' bullpen has been as good as it has been gives me a good feeling about their pitching staff during their postseason run. Advantage: Braves Overall: This is a one-game match, so it is winner-take-all mano-a-mano slugfest. These two teams have this one game to prove their qualities to be better than the other Prediction for this game: Braves win and Chipper has a hand in driving in the winning run to advance the Braves to the next round. Here is the link over to my prediction for the Giants and Reds series: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1975-Playoffs-pt-1

I think any true Twins fan would love it if the Yanks lost in a winner-take-all match like the one that the Twins played in right before they got swept out of the playoffs by NY in 2009 (Game 163 FTW!)

In the ESPN blog that you posted, is there any reason why Revere wasn't even given an honorable mention for all the great catches he made? Is it because he is on a team that hasn't done diddly-squat in the standings the last two years? While I will agree with the blogger that says Trout was one and Ryan was two, Revere should be in the Top 5, in my humble (and extremely Twins-biased) opinion.

For those of you who are trying to predict the outcomes of this year's end of the year awards, here is an article from a sportswriter who actually votes on one of the categories. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8450155/mike-trout-buster-posey-rest-2012-award-winners-mlb

Despite my gut feeling that this year will be less dramatic than the Game 162 walk-off fest last year, there are still several races to finish up in the last two days. Currently, the teams that have clinched their divisions are the Tigers in the AL (seriously, the Tigers clinched before anybody else), and the Reds, Giants, and Nationals in the NL. This leaves mostly the AL Division races and second NL Wild Card up for grabs. Here are the games that should decided the fate of most of the races tonight: Rangers v. A's: Could decide the race, or could leave it tied with one game to go. Yankees v. Red Sox: Win and they win the AL East. Lose and the Orioles lose and they win the East. If they lose and the Orioles win, the race could be decided tomorrow, or go into Game 163 (against either the Orioles, A's, or Rangers.) Orioles v. Rays: They are in a tougher spot than the Yankees, but still have a shot to win the division; just not a very likely one. St. Louis v. Cincinnati: St. Louis couldn't have faced a harder team in going for the clinch. They might have to get some help from... Giants v. Dodgers: The Dodgers are also hanging onto their playoff hopes by a thread, and just barely survived last night. Tonight might be their final night of contention. I will update this post when I learn of clinchers or ties as they come up tonight.

Would you be able to live with Dan Haren?

Were these just grades for players that played in the Majors this year?

I am goin with the A's, hatin on the Yanks, don't have particular feelings about the Orioles (but might if they face the Yankees in a series), don't think the Tigers are going anywhere with the fielding they have, even with Triple Crown-candidate Miggy on their lineup. I am definately rootin for the Nationals this year (but would be cheering even harder if Strasbourg was still pitching).

I would have gone with Marlins at the bottom. I might have also had the Dodgers and Red Sox right next to each other, because they had the same problem this year, with the same personnel: the highly-paid vets that they had on the payroll weren't enough to overcome the rest of the team not being as good. i think your ranking of the Twins and Indians is also about right.

Yeah, I think trying to be like the White Sox is something for the Twins to avoid. They have been getting better and better reviews of their farm system, especially this year, where they had 4+ guys on the Top 100 prospects list (should have been more in my opinion), and now have the 14th rated farm system. The Sox are like rated last or very, very close to dead last. Yes, it will take some time for the talent to come up from the minors, and yes, if the Twins want to compete this offseason, they will need to pick up some arms in FA or in trades, with the caveat that we shouldn't give up too many of our top prospects because we have no idea what will happen with them five years down the road.

+5,000 Over 9,000

While the Twins may not be in the Hunt for October legend-status, there are teams around the league that have clinched a playoff spot and are lining up their pitching according to who they will (or might) face in their first game (or series). This will be a series of blogs about the different teams in the postseason, and how they rank up against everyone else (and especially against their first opponent, if that opponent is known yet.) I will start with the National League, because their playoff bracket is more or less set, unless something amazing happens in regards to the Dodgers and Cardinals. There is a divisional series already set in the National League, with Buster Posey and the Giants set to face Joey Votto and the Reds. http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRmDLalKBZeAsnWZxFqbXR3K3T_TLeQsWCB85PikrtWI1EIRA-z:www.homerunchallenge.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Cincinnati-Reds-Logo.gif vs. http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ27U79eMfztuZW5cvmmZEMDxo9Ve0wjhW-zPBuZHIJoYxP3e0l:images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100907052304/logopedia/images/d/d6/San_Francisco_Giants_logo_1983-1993.png Offense: Overall, the Giants and Reds are fairly similar in many stats. They have very similar OBP's, Slg %'s, and OPS's, as well as RBI's and walks. But while the Reds may lead in a few categories, like HR's and 2B, they are trailing the Giants by a long shot in 3B (not as big of a deal, considering how big the park the Giants play in "plays" in the gaps), BA (by over .015), SB, and have almost 200 more strikeouts than the Giants. While the Red's offense is built around the home run, the Giants have a much more solid attack. Advantage: Giants Defense: The difference in defense is a little bigger. Giants' catchers have allowed 50 more bags to be stolen under their watch and have had 20 more wild pitches get past them than Reds catchers; the Giants have committed 25 more errors than the Reds, which leads to a fielding percentage .004 lower than the Reds. The Giants, however, lead the Reds in double plays turned, in the number of runners they have caught stealing, number of passed balls, and in assists. They are both average to above-average squads in fielding ability Advantage: Tie Pitching: As well known as the Giants pitching staff is for having good numbers, the Reds actually have a lower ERA, have allowed fewer hits (again, only by two), have given up way fewer earned runs and runs overall, have walked fewer batters, have struck out more batters, have struck out more batters (only by 7) and have a lower WHIP rate than the Giants. The Giants lead the Reds in saves converted %, have throw fewer innings (only by 2 1/3), have given up fewer home runs, and has the same BAA as the Reds. As well known as the Giant's vaunted pitching staff is, the Reds have surpassed their numbers in quite a few categories. Advantage: Reds Overall: Both teams have great pitching staffs, field okay, and hit the ball well. But when it comes to postseason experience, I think the Giants outrank the Reds in this case. Prediction for this series: Giants in 4

While the Twins may not be in the Hunt for October legend-status, there are teams around the league that have clinched a playoff spot and are lining up their pitching according to who they will (or might) face in their first game (or series). This will be a series of blogs about the different teams in the postseason, and how they rank up against everyone else (and especially against their first opponent, if that opponent is known yet.) I will start with the National League, because their playoff bracket is more or less set, unless something amazing happens in regards to the Dodgers and Cardinals. There is a divisional series already set in the National League, with Buster Posey and the Giants set to face Joey Votto and the Reds. http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRmDLalKBZeAsnWZxFqbXR3K3T_TLeQsWCB85PikrtWI1EIRA-z:www.homerunchallenge.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Cincinnati-Reds-Logo.gif vs. http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ27U79eMfztuZW5cvmmZEMDxo9Ve0wjhW-zPBuZHIJoYxP3e0l:images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100907052304/logopedia/images/d/d6/San_Francisco_Giants_logo_1983-1993.png Offense: Overall, the Giants and Reds are fairly similar in many stats. They have very similar OBP's, Slg %'s, and OPS's, as well as RBI's and walks. But while the Reds may lead in a few categories, like HR's and 2B, they are trailing the Giants by a long shot in 3B (not as big of a deal, considering how big the park the Giants play in "plays" in the gaps), BA (by over .015), SB, and have almost 200 more strikeouts than the Giants. While the Red's offense is built around the home run, the Giants have a much more solid attack. Advantage: Giants Defense: The difference in defense is a little bigger. Giants' catchers have allowed 50 more bags to be stolen under their watch and have had 20 more wild pitches get past them than Reds catchers; the Giants have committed 25 more errors than the Reds, which leads to a fielding percentage .004 lower than the Reds. The Giants, however, lead the Reds in double plays turned, in the number of runners they have caught stealing, number of passed balls, and in assists. They are both average to above-average squads in fielding ability Advantage: Tie Pitching: As well known as the Giants pitching staff is for having good numbers, the Reds actually have a lower ERA, have allowed fewer hits (again, only by two), have given up way fewer earned runs and runs overall, have walked fewer batters, have struck out more batters, have struck out more batters (only by 7) and have a lower WHIP rate than the Giants. The Giants lead the Reds in saves converted %, have throw fewer innings (only by 2 1/3), have given up fewer home runs, and has the same BAA as the Reds. As well known as the Giant's vaunted pitching staff is, the Reds have surpassed their numbers in quite a few categories. Advantage: Reds Overall: Both teams have great pitching staffs, field okay, and hit the ball well. But when it comes to postseason experience, I think the Giants outrank the Reds in this case. Prediction for this series: Giants in 4

Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, I don't know. I think he will have to be VERY convincing in Spring Training to get to go north with the team, especially if the Twins pick up a few SP options this offseason.

This game is boring me so far. SKOL VIKINGS!

Here is my ballot: MVP: NL: Andrew McCutchen AL: Miggy Cy Young: NL: R.A. Dickey AL: David Price ROY NL: Norichicka Aoki AL: Cespedes Relief Man NL: Craig Kimbrel AL: Fernando Rodney Manager of the Year NL: Davey Johnson AL: Buck Showalter

While some Twins fans think that the Twins' bullpen this year has been fairly good, we have just been lucky with the back-half of our bullpen being as solid as it has been. Here is a list of players who have thrown at least one inning of relief this year, with the italicized players in the Minors, underlined injured and bolded no longer with the Twins: Butera, Fien, Burton, Perkins, Waldrop, Burnett, Capps, Perdomo, De Vries, Swarzak, Duensing, Liriano, Oliveros, Robertson, Gray, Manship, Maloney Out of the list that isn't bolded or italicized, Butera, Liriano, and De Vries spent more time as starting pitchers/catchers than relieving. That leaves from the original list Fien, Burton, Perkins, Waldrop, Burnett, Capps, Perdomo, Swarzak, Duensing, and Robertson still with the Twins and having spent more time as a reliever than a starter. Here are the stats for them, and they aren't always great: Fien: 32 games, 2-1, 1.62 ERA, 33.1 IP, WHIP of .96, BAA .190, 1 HR given up, 30 K's, and 9 BB's. Burton: 61 games, 2-1, 1.97 ERA, 59.1 IP, WHIP of .89, BAA .180, 4 HR given up, 51 K's, and 15 BB's. Perkins: 67 games, 3-1, 2.54 ERA, 67.1 IP, WHIP of 1.07, BAA .227, 7 HR given up, 73 K's, and 16 BB's. Waldrop: 16 games, 0-1, 2.79 ERA, 19.1 IP, WHIP of 1.60, BAA .329, 2 HR given up, 7 K's, and 5 BB's. Burnett: 64 games, 4-4, 3.29 ERA, 68.1 IP, WHIP of 1.36, BAA .259, 4 HR given up, 30 K's, and 25 BB's. Duensing: 42 games, 2-3, 3.46 ERA, 54.2 IP, WHIP of 1.15, BAA .236, 1 HR given up, 34 K's, and 15 BB's. Then the list and numbers kinda starts to drop off with the next guys: Capps: 30 games, 1-4, 3.68 ERA, 29.1 IP, WHIP of 1.09, BAA .241 , 5 HR given up, 18 K's, and 4 BB's. Perdomo: 12 games, 0-0, 3.77 ERA, 14.1 IP, WHIP of 1.74, BAA .259, 0 HR given up, 7 K's, and 11 BB's. Swarzak: 39 games, 3-1, 4.05 ERA, 73.1 IP, WHIP of 1.30, BAA .259, 9 HR given up, 50 K's, and 24 BB's. Robertson: 38 games, 2-2, 5.40 ERA, 25 IP, WHIP of 1.36, BAA .217, 4 HR given up, 26 K's, and 14 BB's. I would say that Fien, Burton, Perkins, Duensing, and, I suppose, Capps aren't doing that badly, but I would really take a long look at the performances of Waldrop, Burnett, Perdomo, Swarzak, and Robertson before I would say that they deserve a spot on next year's roster (not that I think that Capps deserves a spot, either). With these possible openings in the relief corp, it seems that if Slama gives a good showing in ST and doesn't get hurt, he has a really good chance of breaking camp with the team next year. I don't know many relievers down in AAA, but hopefully the Twins can have a few in-camp options ready for ST in 2013. I also wouldn't have a problem with the Twins, if they do find a good SP or two on the FA market this year (more likely if they find two), let Swarzak go, and have a P.J. Walters/Cole De Vries type take over his spot as one of the long relief/spot start guys, because I think at least De Vries has earned a cup of coffee in the Majors next year, and I am hoping that a) he does and hopefully not in the rotation because we will have replaced him with someone better and he can settle into a bullpen role.

Not only will Miggy have to fight off Mauer for the batting title, he is currently behind Josh Hamilton of the Rangers in the HR department as well. I think the only category he wins this year is the RBI title.

If Deduno can keep the ball in the park, not only do the Twins have a chance to win this series, they have a chance to win a season series against the Yankees for the first time in goodness knows how long, or at least that is what I understood from the radio broadcast tonight.

So I am assuming that any situation that the Twins put Capps into is a low-leverage situation because they aren't actually in the playoff hunt.

Profar, Braun, Machado, Rizzo, Gio G., Bumgarner

No, this display of baseball is almost exactly what I was predicting after they signed Fielder and shifted Miggy to 3rd. They have probably the lowest fielding range in the Majors, and they are relying on their hitting to overcome their severe problems with fielding. They sometimes do, but more often than not their fielding hurts them more than their hitting can overcome.

Well, the Twins handed Miggy well the first game, lets see if Walters and his homer-prone pitching ways can stand up in the nightcap.

I do have that problem, but it hasn't really bothered me that much.

As much upside as Parmelee at 3b? Florimon as the starting SS for a winning major league baseball team is wishful thinking at best. Parmelee at 3b is wishful thinking. And good teams often have good glove/no hit shortstops There is no hit shortstops & then there is Florimon.......believe you're thinking about wrong decade Teams in contention (top 2 each division) AL--Jeter/Hardy/Ramirez/Peralta/Andrus/Drew....all hitters NL--Desmond/Simmons/Cozart/Furcal/Crawford/Ramirez----give ya Cozart & Crawford but they are both plus defenders (UZR)....something Florimon hasnt even shown yet 10 of 12 hitters of some degreee......losing teams have no hit shortstops Since when is Drew a good-hitting shortstop?