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The Wise One

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Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    In terms of food, the food might not be bad, it is just not how you like it. Chef didn't cook it like your mama did. Some people think a dash of pepper is too spicy. Others think if it doesn't make you cry it is bland. Neither person cooks bad food. People come from different points of view. Thing of it is, if one calls the other person's food bad, it is really just not accepting other people's way of doing things. People on this board make claims all the time about subjects they only a surface knowledge of or less. Look back on the 5th post. Does that guy know what the scouts know and how they analyze a player? Does he read their reports and analysis. Does he know what information Ryan wants from his scouts to make a decision? That is not the only post like that. Doesn't stop them from ripping away. Complaints without knowledge are annoying. You all can complain. It sure would be nice if you could have a basis of your complaint, more than I think this is how they make a decision and it is wrong. You can dislike the decisions, but you don't know the decision making process.
  2. The Wise One
    Trades require one of two things. Somebody wants what you have, and you get a good return. Ryan did a good job with this. The other is somebody has something you want. Generally you lose in those trades. That is why Ryan doesn't make many of them. The Shannon Stewart trade comes to mind as a trade that worked in Ryan's favor. In general think of all the trades that involve prospects for established players. If the selling team can create a market, they win. People do not know what is discussed between teams, all we know is the outcome of conversations. When you talk of more than mediocre free agents then you have to have the budget debate. The Twins lost money or broke close to even for the Pohlads until 2004. You can argue the value of the franchise went up so they were not losing money, but Carl Pohlad didn't appear to operate that way. He was probably serious about contracting the team. Money upfront and lots of it. That environment meant that any Twins FO has a budget to work under. Yes there are reports that Ryan could go over. The caveat would be then the next year he would have to figure out how to get back to budget. That would restrict large investments (High quality) in free agents. It is not an apology for the FO, it is merely an observation on how things appear to work in the Twin's Way.
  3. The Wise One
    Ryan doesn't get much credit for building what he did before, why would he get any credit for anything now? It is, well they lost in the playoffs, Ryan didn't do enough. Ryan had overseen plenty of good drafts. Unfortunately 07 was the worst at producing talent. The 06 draft produced 7 players that spent some time in the majors. The 05 draft produced 3 pitchers that were major league starters. One very good, one good for a couple of years, and one soft tossing lefty. In an inexact science, he came darn close to having great drafts.
  4. The Wise One
    Sigh, All Ryan's fault from before. There are 4 avenues in adding talent as you know. I am having a little trouble recalling, from 07-11 what FA, traded for player, Rule 5 or waiver claim has stuck with the team and contributed? There may not have been many players from the 06 draft stick around, but college players drafted in 08-10 could be in their prime.
  5. The Wise One
    Twins lack innovation. In stating what they believe to be innovation they completely miss the glaring fact that the Twins right now do not have the kind of talent to make those "innovations" work. I have yet to see one of the stat heavy guys show me with statistics of the Twins players how any of this would make a difference.
  6. The Wise One
    Giving players Gil Meche contracts, buying high with non surplus prospects on trades to get better now. That would be my idea of what trying to take a shortcut is. It leaves you with something you can't get rid of and thin on talent.
  7. The Wise One
    Fascinating thread. There are those that dislike Ryan. Your choice. One person calls him arrogant, multiple chime in the same. Arrogant because he once said Twins way. Now they are losing so he is arrogant. Feel free to correct me but WTF is wrong in baseball with stressing fundamental error free baseball. Twins way in building under Ryan part 1, draft well, trade pieces under the sell high, buy low theory. Have the Twins strayed from the Twins Way? In the office and in the field about like a TD thread does from the OP. That does not make them arrogant.
  8. The Wise One
    Yeah, I just figured out my error on the Brewers. Still can't see where he got 116 years of drafted players playing for Boston. For the data to have more significance the NL teams should be included. Their strategies, or lack thereof, have a huge impact on drafting and other amateur talent, how you can sign FA, and of course trades. There would be something to also consider, trades made to get you over the hump and win a championship. You generally lose on those trades. Colby Rasmus and extras for a half season of Edwin Jackson. Cards won the hardware, Rasmus has provided his team with more WAR.
  9. The Wise One
    Camp had a rocket fastball. Minnesota convinced Miami that other teams would trade for him. They got some cash out of the deal for their efforts. Camp was returned to the Indians and never did make the majors.
  10. The Wise One
    For the Brewers you have listed 26 player seasons. This includes by your post the cup of coffee players What happened to the totals for the following players with the total number of seasons they played with the Brewers? Bill Hall 8 Corey Hart 9 JJ Hardy 5 Prince Fielder 7 Richie Weeks, 10 Tony Gwynn jr 3 Ryan Braun 7 Jonathan Lucroy 4 Not to be nitpicky, but that is a gross error
  11. The Wise One
    Under Ryan the Twins draft toolsy outfielders. Not all of them work out, Joe Benson being the latest example. They probably have provided the most WAR. They draft defensive oriented middle infielders. They do not provide as much WAR. The infielders traded for fir the same mold. Pitchers tend to be towards the steady variety, lower ceiling when they work out. Lower WAR also. When they have drafted higher ceiling pitchers it hasn't worked out. Still questioning your methodology as I mentioned you have 116 player years for Boston position players yet since 1996 they have only produced Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkalis as star players. Pitching during that time was Buckholtz, Lester and Paplebon. Above in Oakland's success you are talking about Giambi who was drafted in 1992. There is still no pattern to Oakland's success. For every Suzuki there are many more Jeremy Brown's. In the days of compensation, Oakland ended up with more draft picks. If you looked at total WAR versus number of high draft picks a different picture would emerge.
  12. The Wise One
    With the amateur draft changing, that should make for an interesting change in the numbers for success in draft with the smaller market teams. Rules continually change. There is no more sign and follow which may have helped teams with lower round picks. There will be less of the additional picks because your player didn't sign. With less supplemental picks, the second round becomes more valuable to the poor teams. All of this changes the dynamic. When the agents figure out loopholes, the owners will react and change the process again. Historical note, sometime in the 60's many years there was more spent by teams on amateur talent than payroll. Just noting how things change.
  13. The Wise One
    Interesting historical data. You must have a little bit of file management experience. It still must have been a lot of work. Limitations on what you actually produced. You picked a time frame of heavy PED use. That would inflate numbers. Take Melky Cabrerrra. Low WAR, goes to KC and SF. big numbers and busted. Off the drugs, negative war in Toronto. Boston has a high cumulative war. Is it better drafting or is it retaining good players? Yankees rate high. Jeter's 73 works very well to add to that total as does Rivera's 43 For at least the first 15 years in drafting beyond talent there was a signability issue that would have an effect on drafting. Actually, much to their luck, that is how the Twins ended up with Mauer rather than Prior. (There is a what if thread, Mauer FSU quarterback) In drafting players I hate to say it is luck. Think Tim Hudson did better than most 6th round picks? If it was due to how Oakland identifies players then why did they draft Enochs in the first round that year? Actually, how did you get Boston's high number on position players? Ellsbury, Youkalis, and Pedroia were the only position players drafted by Boston that racked up big WAR numbers playing there.
  14. The Wise One
    I am not sure what the fuss is about. For the most part Parmalee does not start when there is a left hander starting. 64 plate appearances in 47 games would indicate he is not starting much against left handers. Plouffe starts at 3B because there wasn't much else for options. What he lacks in BA he makes up for in power over Carroll (when he was here) and Escobar. There is no guarantee of an arrival of Sano, Plouffe will be starting at 3B for the near future. Maybe he doesn't have a long future, but stuff happens. He will be somewhere in the lineup against lefties. Some players have been all over the outfield. Herman rarely sees a left hander, Parmalee only a little as does Thomas. It would be hard to say there is a set pattern. Sometimes it was a matter of who had a pulse that day, but the mix and match of outfielders would be closer to the loose definition of platoon than not.
  15. The Wise One
    The world of being GM is not a binary system. What you do at one moment might no be what you are doing later. It is not always do this or not do this.
  16. The Wise One
    Every team hopes that a high percentage of their signings turn out. What a rebuilding team does is trade assess for players that will someday be better than he one they traded. A retooling team has a replacement ready and thus is getting ahead in the game before they have to rebuild. Why is this even an issue? What label your team has, rebuilding, retooling, or whatever, is meaningless. All teams are trying to get better short term and long term. Long term planning means that if you have success it will generally last longer. Quick fixes might appease fans, but will be like a 1985 Kcar, it will always need fixing
  17. The Wise One
    To answer your question without getting a lifetime ban will be difficult. The line from the article was the inflammatory comment I mentioned earlier. People make judgments of people based on what they post and how they respond to other posts. The line in the article is that person's observation, shared by others, on what the vocal critics post. If anything, it is meant to encourage critical thinking before one posts some rant. Personally, I see a lot of very narrow focused frequent complaints that miss the bigger picture. When I managed departments I felt like you needed to see the bigger picture. Maybe these posters have run something, but it might not be evident in how they post. On the other hand, this forum does become a venting session. Venting and critical thinking often do not go together.
  18. The Wise One
    Unlike when Sano was signed there are now limits on spending for amateur free agents. The whole back and forth on if the Twins spend big to sign players in that market is moot. The world changed and there are new rules for them to play by. As you know, they can spend more, but there are penalties associated with that. Now if you were to talk about the former international professionals in other leagues seeking their new fame and fortune in America, the answer would be not much has been done there.
  19. The Wise One
    6 years in the majors and a career war of 1.5 and still on a current major league roster. ****ty player pure and simple. They exist in in this day and age. Not as bad as Mendoza, but not anything good either. That was the point. ****ty players still populate the roster for multiple seasons and play a significant amount of time. Took me less than a minute to find this player. Tried a little harder, Juan Castro, Andy Sheets, Luis Lopez.... There really is a long list of negative WAR player that played a long time in the majors recently. Some could hit just enough to get a chance. Since Mendoza retired there have been 17 players, including Delmon Young, to have a career WAR less than -2.4. Mendoza by the way did not have 1500 PA for a career, but why be like some and pick nits when it doesn't change the point. John Moses made the list. He played for the Twins. It was his best 2 years. A bit of irony I couldn't resist.
  20. The Wise One
    Adam Rosales. Same career batting average as Mendoza. Even played for the Oakland team for a few years. 6 years and still going at 1000 AB. Poor players still find there way to a career with the metrics.
  21. The Wise One
    Mendoza was a starter on some bad Mariner teams, otherwise a backup player. You didn't much to tell you he wasn't going to be a star.
  22. The Wise One
    You are very correct on the arguably part of that statement. Metrics can describe the player better, it doesn't improve the play one iota. There are technology gains like trackman and pitch fx that people confuse as part of sabermetrics. That technology can improve the game . It is not a metric. Your statement is not sustainable by a fact.
  23. The Wise One
    It was less of a return than a lot of people thought they would get. They got organizational filler for when Thomas, Ramirez and Mastro go elsewhere. It does confirm that they couldn't get even a c prospect
  24. The Wise One
    Fans are to be excited about the players for their team. All to soon it spirals down. Expectations will be placed so high that the kid will never be able to match that. The list was put out. I saw a lot of older players that never went anywhere. I can't believe you would take a comment on the older players as a rip on Sano. Clearly there is a difference there.
  25. The Wise One
    ISO means when someone hits the ball the player runs a lot of bases in that at bat. Nothing more, nothing less.
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