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The Wise One

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Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    In terms of accuracy it correlates to what? 80% chance that the ERA for a pitcher with a SIERA of 3.75 will be somewhere between 3.25 and 4.25? It may be the most accurate, but again look at you table SIERA and the next year's ERA. The conversation was Jimenez versus Johnson. Jimmenez is now a number 3-5 starter? Fair enough on the comment about durability until they were not. Problem is that Johnson fits the latter category. Lohse had only one season of less than 20 starts when used as a regular starter
  2. The Wise One
    Fred McGriff can't even get in the HOF. Beltre will have to have 500 HR and 3000 hits to stand a chance of making it in. Had he carried Texas on his back to a WS win and followed it up with another run he wouldn't need astronomical numbers. In this day and age of needing to be wowed, he might take an election campaign
  3. The Wise One
    Junior is still playing? Or is it Junior Ortiz Jr.?
  4. The Wise One
    Also when your metric has predictive value and you call it as more accurate, what are you considering accuracy? If you say something like it means he pitched better or worse than his era and should do better then that is not much of a prediction.
  5. The Wise One
    The alternative to the "dirty war"is what? Let the people be so they can continue in their quest to kill anyone who appears friendly to the United States?
  6. The Wise One
    When over a 4 year period a player misses over a season's worth of games there should be concern. If you want to argue over who is the better player then injuries do not factor in. If you want to argue who will help a team out more the injuries matter. For 2013 Marcum's injury was not his elbow but his shoulder. So when you have to ask is this guy going to be healthy, which you have to do for Johnson, IP matters.
  7. The Wise One
    Answer to the *question* is it was a while ago and the name escapes me. IIRC you didn't much care for last winter's pitcher signing yet advocate Capuano. Your question about organizational filler seems appropriate.
  8. The Wise One
    Complaining of a strawman argument with conjecture about how you think various front offices are run. Every organization has philosophies and ways they think the game should be played. They try to get players to fit that mold. Yes Ryan talks about things in global terms that you call meaningless platitudes. He doesn't say squat about how he got to that point of thinking. The Twins do not talk about how they make decisions. That leaves people to decide what they want to think without a basis. Ryan signed Willingham. Parker once wrote an article on how Willingham was built for Target Field just after he was signed. You can think the Twins were dumb and lucky with Willingham in 2012 or you can think they looked at his game and saw a fit for the home field. People are going to believe what they want.
  9. The Wise One
    Ryan also said that his scouts know statistics.
  10. The Wise One
    There is plenty of evidence they have a statistical analysis department. Is it so hard to believe they could be right?
  11. The Wise One
    Medicine isn't like a flat tire on a car. I am happy that you personally do not know the concept of differential diagnosis. You made the claim they do not use data. Duck and run. Deny all you want. 20 other posters on Twins Daily isn't proof.
  12. The Wise One
    There is a reason you do not understand the first point that is not easily explainable in a short sentence. Open interviews is not the Pohlad style. Backroom and secrecy is. The most qualified candidate is the one who has successfully done the job before. At the VP/GM level there are generally not many looking for work as the key word successful shows up. Anything after that becomes a bit of a guessing game. You are asking someone to do a job they haven't done before. The world is littered with people who did fine at one level but couldn't do the next step up. That is the big picture
  13. The Wise One
    I guess older people have a far different world view than what you do. All things being equal, you wouldn't be unhappy that a company passed you over for a promotion and gave it to an outsider. Best qualified. You did not refute my first statement in regards to FO positions. SO when you compare what is available out there to promote it would be subjective as to who is the better candidate as you are asking someone to do a role they had never done before. See Wayne Krivisky's career.
  14. The Wise One
    And you proof on how they evaluate players is? Your knowledge on how they medically treat the players and how players make medical decisions is? Better yet what medical system treats patient's based on statistics versus individual symptoms?
  15. The Wise One
    The Twins do not operate in a competitive environment. The bulk of their money is made through a cooperative effort with the other teams. What innovation are the Twins lacking in your opinion?
  16. The Wise One
    You rarely see someone move laterally from organization to organization. That makes baseball different from business. When someone is brought from the outside it is a promotion based on hoped for expectations or said person is acailable for that job because they have been fired elsewhere(deemed not good enough). Apply this to you. Rather than you being promoted, they brought someone else in who held a position similar to yours. You would be real happy about that? Why weren't you promoted? Oh, the other person came from an organization that was deemed more successful. What did management just tell you about the work that you and your department have done. Management has determined your level of the Peter Principal. If you think they are wrong, you shouldn't be happy. Brian Auld may field a few inquiries about a GM position. If he politely declines to discuss it, the other organization isn't going to bring it up either. Discretion.
  17. The Wise One
    So what to your list. How is it any different from any other baseball team with some success? The team in place has netted the Pohlads a few hundred million in increaced valuation of the team. In the last 4 years even a profit. From a business sense the Twins management has delivered to the Pohlads what they wanted. The individuals within the system worked hard and have received promotions. It was very bad of them to work hard and generally stay within the organization to get promoted. I wish you had a list of the scouts, as well as ball boys, janitors and anyone else as to how long they have worked for the team. You can have an opinion that there is an indoctrination to the Twins way. If there is really such a thing and it bothers you so much you are going to remain in misery as long as the Pohlads own the team.
  18. The Wise One
    Have you ever been promoted within your company? It is not meant as a shot but to make you consider this. There are very few proven commodities. You on the outside may think that the 4th in command at XYZ team may be more qualified than the internal candidate. When that person turns out to be no more qualified than the person that was within the company, then you go backwards. It destroys morale. The outside has to be superior to what is within. In terms of GM the owner could have been very discreet. You can have an opinion one way or the other as to what happens, but you don't know. Baseball tends to be tight lipped on how they operate.
  19. The Wise One
    The number of fans that buy at least one ticket could number in the 3-500000 range. The number that care about the process that passionately? 1%? A fan's biggest concern would be if they win, not how they get to that point.
  20. The Wise One
    There is a group think on this board. It has a set belief and nothing is going to change it. The Twins front office may have a lot of the same people in it but other than signing free agents can you really say there is a staid approach to baseball? Advanced statistics. Early in the 50's Branch Rickey devised a new formula. It was called OBP. Sometime in the 60's linear weighted batting average formula were started. There has always been a stats guy more interested in how to better to describe how much better his favorite player was than someone else's. Bill James invented Sabrmetics as a term. He did not invent deeper statistical analysis of baseball. There is that group think that does not realize this. In reality (Not used to inflame) it isn't that hard to emulate what another organization is doing. All you have to do is look for the traits that emerge on analysis of their drafts. Look at what was drafted before and the changing profile. There is a trend. Also note though that there trend might be adaptable to situation. For example in pitching if there were a minimal speed number for FB but a guy has an 88 with plus plus slider, as well as another plus plus pitch you still might take the guy.
  21. The Wise One
    Signing international free agents at age 16 mean that it will take quite a few years to find out if you are any good at it. It has been said by many the GM is responsible for the work of the front office personnel and those that work under said people.
  22. The Wise One
    That becomes the problem with a lot of these metrics. There are cases they do not work. fip biases against a pitcher with good control and a hard but not impossible to hit pitcher
  23. The Wise One
    Whatever Lincecum signed has no bearing on the rest of the world. 2 years ago he turned down a 4 year extension because he didn't want that kind of commitment. Lincecum does what he wants because that is what he wants to do. If he passes his physical that will push his career earnings to 99 million. There is no pressure on him to do anything but what he wants to do. As a medium tier pitcher and young Hughes should get a 4 year contract. A perfect fit for the Twins as he has the prerequisite plays poorly in Yankee stadium bit down pat. Side bit here. Can one of you stats guys tell me the wisdom of compiling xfip as a home versus away stat? era home vs away 4.94 4.10 xfip 4.28 4.35 fiip 4.80 3.78 sorry, I wasn't going to find a different site that had all of the rest of the era predictors. The baseball prospectus article on the predictor stuff showed reliability for all of the predictors was the same with a large enough sample size. 700+ innings was more than a large sample size IIRC.
  24. The Wise One
    That the Twins were winning those years compared to the poor seasons previous had nothing to do with attendance. It was all to see 2 players. By 1998 with Molitor the attendance had gone back down. They were not winning. Winning draws the fans
  25. The Wise One
    Kershaw's pitches would appear to have much more movement than Wacha's which could lead to more balls being called. But umpires watch the catcher not the pitch.
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