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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    I guess I'm one of those guys who sees that some things went wrong during the drafts from 2006 through 2011, but I'm still very skeptical that what went wrong for the Twins during that period is so very different from what went wrong for other organizations that faced the most similar set of circumstances in each of those very different drafts. My first suggestion would be to limit the evaluation of each of those years to the five teams that drafted in front of the Twins and the five that drafted immediately after them. Then, throw out the supplemental picks. Third, toss out injury casualties. Last, include as a surrogate first-rounder each team's highest-cost international signing from the year being reviewed. The questions I would love to have truthful answers to are: 1) why was their success limited in any given draft year; 2) are there patterns that we can confidently say were in place; 3) are there steps that could have and/or have been taken to remove the causes of any deficiency of judgment; 4) relative to other teams whose draft position most closely mirrored ours, how did we fare; and 5) what was different about the 2014 draft process from the 2011 draft process?
  2. bird
    I agree with this. On paper, even if 75% of the good things happen in terms of avoiding regression, emerging production from youngsters, and rebounding performance from vets, the four other teams still look a little better on paper. But injuries and disappointments happen for other teams too. If Detroit is forced to go with Buck Farmer and Lobstein in the rotation because of injuries, for example...
  3. bird
    Or, maybe they have a really terrific fundamental understanding of strategy but have bigger fish to fry right now. Like making sure all these new, immensely talented players learn how to be team players and accountable professionals. If Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and the like are roaming the outfield in less than a year and they have a top tier OF defense, are you going to conclude that they suddenly gained a fundamental understanding of strategy? Levi believes, I think, that the Twins don't fully appreciate the value of good outfield defense. That's a reasonable point of view.
  4. bird
    Yeah, I did that ice bucket challenge. They took a picture of me and fired it into the internet on that face book thingy.
  5. bird
    Just a word of caution though. If we had insisted on a "useable assessment" of 1.5-2 years on Plouffe to cite just one example (particularly if it was the FANS' assessment), he'd have been DFA'd two years ago, just like a number of commenters on TD suggested. Guys like Parmelee aren't kept around because the Twins don't have a useable assessment. It's not that simple. Thankfully we're entering a stage where they can trot out better alternatives now.
  6. bird
    Any way you cut it, the thing that matters is progress from Meyer and May. The scenario I dread is Meyer lacking efficiency and command and May being too wild. Because, even if Milone, Pelfrey, and Nolasco all turn their performances around, their best is pretty much mediocrity, and we're treated to a 75% chance of witnessing another loss when they pitch. I still think we're due for one last season where wins and losses, practically speaking, don't matter and individual progress is paramount. I'm really hoping that all three of the veterans return to mediocrity, and that we can offload one (Nolasco?) before opening day for a reasonable return and another (Milone?) at the trade deadline for a prospect. Progress by Meyer and/or May isn't a given, but dammit, it's high time we have a little good fortune!
  7. bird
    I agree about May and think the Twins should be strongly skewing the benefit of the doubt in favor of both Meyer and May over Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone. But I'd suggest that MOST of what gets evaluated regarding a player's performance during spring training happens outside of games and therefore outside of the fans' purview. It would be unwise to base decisions solely on game results, and it's a bit myopic of fans to argue for one player over the other based on the same, but we see that happen all the time. I won't get terribly worked up, I guess, with whatever call they make. Except Pelfrey. I'm tipping over Volkswagens on University by the Armory if they go with Pelfrey.
  8. bird
    Good point about Nolasco being on notice that he'll be expected to pitch his way into the rotation. Gibson said he fully expects he'll need to compete for a spot. Let's not discount Ryan's stated concerns about Nolasco's state of mind about being a Twin. It would not shock me at all if we broke camp without Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone on the roster.
  9. bird
    Another thing to point out is that having a lot of under-25 relief pitchers rushed on to your active roster in no way means you have your act together. The Detroit Tigers had a bullpen mess all last year, and no team in the division promoted more relievers under the age of 25 onto their active roster. So, it's not about age, it's about talent, MLB readiness, and health, and that's it. Of course Detroit is not a great example, given that they've now traded 6 of 10 prospects from their 2014 BA Top 10. The 2012 draft is promising, and the RP pipeline on the whole is too, but we haven't exactly cornered the market on this kind of talent. Having numbers is important because most of these guys will end up being underwhelming.
  10. bird
    OK, Ash, I'll try not to run across my pal mike's comments on FanGraphs. In my defense his was the first of two comments there and mirrored the comment he made here and wasn't just some offhand thing. And mike is a big boy. I'm guessing his skin is thick enough to handle a little friendly challenge of a criticism he makes that repeatedly suggests rather clearly a view that it's a symptom of a larger problem. I didn't exactly have to do any heavy lifting to place it in its proper and larger context, and it wasn't a personal attack on my part in any way.
  11. bird
    Once again, mike, which of the eleven names I listed do you think should have been moved up two wrungs but were not as you claim they should?
  12. bird
    The answer to that question supports the commonly accepted fact that the pitching pipeline was weak for a few years. It does not support your premise that other teams are moving RP's at a fast rate or that the Twins are cluelessly delaying the advancement of talented pitchers, which is the premise you're promoting based on your comments here and on FanGraphs. You'd like us to believe there is some larger problem based on the incompetence of the organization, and this is not the case whatsoever. Based on the current abundance of pitching talent, the opposite is true, mike. I would guess that, by the beginning of 2016 and maybe sooner, you will find at least four pitchers on the active roster younger than 25. Compare that to your beloved Cards. Of the 17 pitchers that spent time on the active roster for any period of time in 2014, 4 were 25 or under IIRC. And this has absolutely nothing to do with more aggressive advancement. It has everything to do with how terrifically talented those 4 guys are.
  13. bird
    You've made this claim repeatedly, but I'd really like to see some substantiation. I think your premise that other teams are moving their high-ceiling RP's fast and the Twins are not is false. It might be a false perception on your part related to the ridiculous number of injuries we've had to deal with regarding the high-profile RP draftees. We can identify a large group of Twins RP's who have been rated as Top 25 prospects by various listers. I'm identifying their level and inserting the highest ranking I can find for each in parentheses by their name: 1. Michael Tonkin, AAA, (10). Not rushed, and certainly not held back either, as his MLB performance record so far isn't exactly sterling. 2. A.J. Achter, AAA, (25). Saw MLB time late last year. Hardly a future All-Star. 3. Mason Melotakis, AA, (10). Season-ending injury. 4. Nick Burdi, A+, (10). Will experience his first full spring training as a pro in February. He pitched in the College WS, and calls for him to start his career with the Twins or at some higher level don't take into account the value of protecting him and watching over him at Fort Myers. 5. Zack Jones, A+, (18). Despite injury problems, he pitched in the AFL. Hardly delayed. 6. Jake Reed, A-, (16). Saw AFL action in his first year as a pro, will see his first spring training in five weeks. Hardly being held back. Blocked at A+ by Burdi, Jones, Brandon Peterson, Brian Gilbert, etc. 7. Yorman Landa, A-, (25). Had injuries, is very young. 8. Randy Rosario, A-, (25). Injured all year, very young prospect. 9. Michael Cedaroth, A-, (21). Converted to starter, first year pro. 10. Luke Bard, A- (11). Out all year. 11. JT Chargois, A- (13). Out all year. Do you have other examples?
  14. bird
    It's indisputable that the Twins were a lower-revenue team throughout MacPhail's era. I think any review of interviews with Andy during his tenure would support the author's description of MacPhail's and the team's constant struggles to compete despite the financial challenges. I can recall any number of times Young Andrew described the cyclical nature of their environment. Jim Pohlad and Young Andrew were the same age, and their families were known to socialize occasionally, and it's quite conceivable that Jim played a role even back then on those occasions when Carl was convinced to pry the pocketbook open a little wider. The old man was a tough sell.
  15. bird
    We can only guess as to what makes Hicks less responsive to instruction than most of his MLB peers, but I'd bet this trait has haunted him since his childhood and we're just being introduced to it. My guess is that he's overcome it through sheer talent throughout his athletic career. Now that he's at the most elite level and no longer exceptional, it's up to him to change, IMO. There's still hope. I keep thinking about a pampered kid in my son's class-smart, great eye-hand coordination, etc., but he just couldn't be coached and kept out of trouble otherwise. I guess it took a drill sergeant to get through to him, and now he's an elite sniper in our U.S. Marine Corps. Not really a fitting analogy, but still...
  16. bird
    It's possible he could get injured again, but he won't be subject to a pitch limit like he was last year.
  17. bird
    Yes, when you include prospects knocking on the door in AAA who had nice years, you'd find that Wheeler, May, Meyer, Achter, Tonkin, Olivares, and Pressly all had very good numbers.
  18. bird
    Even more important than Berrios' emergence, to me, is the number of prospects that performed exceptionally in their first taste of full-season play in the minors, along with a few standouts higher up. After so often cringing at the disappointments like Joe Benson, Angel Morales, Bromberg, Wimmers, Guttierez, etc., we had so few of those and so many encouraging performances. Gordon, Stewart, Minier, Thorpe, Diaz, Gonsalves, Garver, Reed, Hu, Duffey, Jones, Rogers, Burdi, Polanco, Michael....all on top of the guys who advanced to the big club. I'd rate this as a more important development than all the rest, because my own perception is that it is very unusual to have that high of a percentage of a team's high-ceiling prospects meet or exceed expectations.
  19. bird
    Yeah, but Cuddyer was known for his stellar defense at shortstop, not for his power potential.
  20. bird
    We're in the minority, but I'd be inclined to leave Santana in CF until Buxton arrives and let Schaefer beat out Hicks for the 4th OF spot. If Rosario and Hicks light the world on fire in minor league play, great. Move Hunter aside.
  21. bird
    I just can't get all worked up about this "outfield mess". It was only a couple years ago that comments were coming in fast and furious about the Twin's inherent and chronic ineptitude when it came to drafting and developing middle infielders, and here in 2015 we might discover we have a surplus. I expect that, by 2016, we might be talking about the outfield in those same terms, and it may start earlier than that with strong performances from Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton out of the gates. For 2015, I'm actually most worried about the catching position, as I'm not much of a fan of any of our guys behind the plate and wonder about Suzuki offensively going forward. Longer term, my hunch is that the two most important factors regarding sustainable excellence will be the development of our young starters (duh) and our success with international signings in the next couple of years.
  22. bird
    Can anyone point to a study that reveals the average number of starts that are lost due to injury and replacement from the rotation a team installs to begin a season? Any guesses? 40? 50? And how many starters on average does a MLB team use during a given season? 7? 8?
  23. bird
    This. Wishful thinking aside, Meyer probably would have been eaten alive in the majors last year. May is far from a sure thing still. What's much more certain is injuries and/or meltdowns within the rotation. Remember Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Slowey with nothing in the AAA cupboard? Remember a backup plan of DeVries, Walters, Hernandez, and Albers? May and Meyer will not be blocked if they prove themselves, and our Berrios is not a 2015 guy.
  24. bird
    The importance of an individual player's "makeup" is way underrated in my view. On the other hand, I really question the assumption that an individual's "leadership" often can have a large impact on the performance of those around him. My guess is that this notion is way overrated.
  25. bird
    The right time in the cycle. I've been telling you this, young man.
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