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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    Nice job, spy. I think you're right. And that would mean I'm mostly not, although I have always said they are horrible at disposing of surplus assets at the top of the market, which I've defined as a problem with overall execution. Now I'm rethinking this, because, although I don't think retaining veterans and avoiding selling high is a part of their strategy, Ryan leaves the impression that he has a phobia about getting fleeced.
  2. bird
    A number of franchises operate with an almost identical strategy as the Twins. The Cards are one. The primary differences are related to overall execution (the Cards have executed the strategy better), phase of the cycle (the closer an organization is to the top of the cycle, the less needs, and the greater likelihood of trading a top prospect for a "final" piece of the puzzle), and avoiding mistakes ( see Billy Smith's record). The Twins have been historically bad at selling high. Contrary to many opinions expressed here, the Twins are aggressive when it comes to moving the most elite prospects through the system. Ryan is actually a humble man.
  3. bird
    A minor quibble about this: Sickles has seven pitching prospects rated B- and above. Thorpe and May got B- borderline B grades, so that would be five pitchers at a pretty elite grade. Find me another system with seven B- and higher pitching prospects and then see if they also have six others at C+. Also, four of these B- and better guys will likely see action with the Twins in 2015, so I still think, perhaps unintentionally by virtue of how you phrased it, you understated things by saying "mostly" in conjunction with the "lower minors" tag. So, in reality, we have thirteen pitchers with a grade of C+ or better, and a majority of them are on a timeline to see MLB action within the next two years. Shark is comparable to Hughes to me. So, what if Sale or Quintana gets hurt in the next year? Aside from Rodon, how many of their pitching prospects merit a grade of B- or better? I might be willing to bet the Whities have a better rotation in three/four years, but I ain't betting the difference between the Twins and CWS salaries on it.
  4. bird
    I get why Hahn is doing what he's doing. I said earlier that it makes sense to skin the cat the way he's doing it given their situation. But I need to correct your statement: May, Meyer, and Berrios are B+ prospects, not part of a compilation of "B-/C+ prospects from the low minors", and the others mentioned are all better than what that suggests, really. But talking about individual prospects misses the point about the advantages of having high-level talent at all levels. If you accept the benefits of this, talking about a five-year horizon doesn't sound odd, spycake. The Shark trade illustrates this well, as the Sox further decimated a weak system for a #2-3 starter who will cost a fortune in a year. Another example: Detroit just gave up two of their ten best prospects for a #4-5 starter. Purging those same like-quality prospects from the Twins system would barely impact their future. Again, I'm not criticizing Hahn's approach and acknowledge he could add to the $104M payroll as a means of sustaining things in the absence of an incredible prospect pipeline like the Cubs and Twins have (although he now has fewer prospect chips, right?). But I am defending the Twin's approach and will go a step further to say it's a more sustainable strategy, even without considering the economic side of it all beyond player value.
  5. bird
    Recalling with fondness that the Twins in fact did NOT field a staff capable of winning a WS in 1987, and they won anyway, with fearsome Les Straker taking the hill as our third starter. Irrelevant fun fact here.
  6. bird
    How many starters in a given rotation go down for a lengthy period in a season? Two? Most teams end up using what, 7-8 starters in a season? That's the luck I'm talking about. If Detroit loses two starters, they have Buck Farmer and a desperate trade to make. The Whities, I'll grant, have a little more depth. But I'll take our current veteran rotation plus May, Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Hu, Wheeler, and Rogers et al on a five-year plan over what the Whities have going at the moment. The Sox will be improved, but so will the Twins. Hahn is probably taking the right approach for them, all things considered, but that doesn't make me think the Twins are in the midst of a failed strategy or something. I think the Twins, if they execute reasonably well, will have a more sustainable foundation.
  7. bird
    Spun facts regarding Abreu, my friend. Again, you characterize the Twins as bunglers for having missed on a no-brainer like Abreu, and grant them no room for possibly having other priorities than a DH/1B, or for missing him in the same way 29 teams missed him, i.e. for their own reasons. You continually paint a picture that portrays the Twins as being in an elite category in terms of missing out on this guy. I used Sano as an example of another guy, another no-brainer, that 29 teams missed on. I could have used Hughes, I suppose, but the point to be made is that it's patently unfair to castigate 29 teams as bunglers for missing out on Hughes or Sano. Or Abreu. The Twins bungle plenty. So do other teams. Abreu is not an example of a bungle, that's all.
  8. bird
    I mostly agree with this, if everything works out. While Rodon is a stud, the others are less exciting. The scouting reports on Montas are mixed, despite his ability to throw it fast. He projects as a #3 starter or likely bullpen guy. May, Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, and Gonsalves all have higher ceilings than Spencer and Danish, from what I've read. They compare more favorably to Rogers, Eades, and the like. So, if by some stroke of luck, Sale, Rodon, Quintana, and now Shark remain free of injury, I'd grant that this will be a top 5 rotation when they're all healthy and going well.
  9. bird
    Gotcha. So by your logic, only a few teams had an immediate need for Sano. And Abreu was a major miss for the incompetent Twins, but not for a majority of the other teams, according to the way YOU spin it. Got it.
  10. bird
    So by your logic, you must conclude that every team in baseball is incompetent. After all, they all missed on Sano. I mean, talk about a fat pitch. Except the Twins, who maybe just got lucky.
  11. bird
    Sorry, I thought your main point was that, unlike the Twins, who are merely talking' a good game (one day of winter meetings behind them), the Whities are actually doing something (one day, no confirmation on the Shark trade). My bad. We agree that Hahn is acting boldly.
  12. bird
    Two words: one day. Maybe we should ALL wait on talkin' a good game, eh?
  13. bird
    Oh, and the Twins didn't "miss" on Abreu. They chose not to swing, with logical reasons, whether one agrees with them or not. And they added a better bat than LaRoche last year. Both Arcia and Vargas will prove to be better bats. Let's noe see if they can match up with Sano and Buxton as well.
  14. bird
    The Whities have "a few" Top 100 infielders? Tim Anderson for sure, but now find me two others that are in this category, jokin. And if you're counting Shark on the CWS side of the ledger, it's only fair to subtract Semien. Not to take away from what CWS is accomplishing. I think Hahn is doing a nice job of creating a formidable big league team in very short order, although I question whether he can build a sustainable level of excellence absent either a further resurgence of the farm system beyond two elite prospects or further aggressive spending in FA markets.
  15. bird
    I'm humored by the pre-judging of Ryan after one day of the winter meetings. If one was to put stock in what's been discussed so far, Ryan is clearly not serious. Also, he's talking to all the wrong agents. Besides that, he's pretty much just sitting on his hands while the rest of the division passes him by.
  16. bird
    Hahn certainly had an impressive off-season last year. Looks like he's going out for an encore. Semien, from what I can tell by reading the reports, is perhaps comparable to Jorge Polanco at best. Bassitt had a very nice AFL, but probably compares to Tonkin, or Zack Jones maybe. Both rank among the Whities top 10 prospects. It's of course impossible to know right now, but given Shark's contract status, this might be a bad trade for both sides.
  17. bird
    The depth in truly promising prospects is so impressive. Roughly 30 prospects have been mentioned in this thread not named Buxton, Meyer, or Sano, let alone Arcia, Santana, Hicks, May, or Vargas. Only a handful of them are flyers. Go over to the Tiger's prospect sites and see if you can find even a dozen such prospects, especially since they just traded two of their top 10 prospects for a pitcher whose ceiling is arguably lower than that of Trevor May.
  18. bird
    JT Chargois and Michael Cedaroth.
  19. bird
    We're in deep doo-doo. Me too.
  20. bird
    Right, like every other club in baseball.
  21. bird
    A player can be perceived by us to be MLB "ready", but we lack a credible factual basis upon which to judge readiness for ourselves. It's hard enough for the coaches and evaluators who are watching every bullpen and every BP these guys take, let alone monitoring their clubhouse and off-field behavior, to make this call. That's why it's a bit presumptuous to so vehemently disagree with the team about these decisions. And because it's impossible for even the field staff to be certain, I really hope Ryan brings someone in, even if it means turning around and trading from a surplus later.
  22. bird
    If you carefully read the articles linked in Parker's article, you'll also find very very little mention of working down in the zone, or up in the zone. I think we're overplaying this notion regarding some sort of mantra about staying down in the zone. In those articles, there are at least a half-dozen other concepts stressed repeatedly other than the over-simplified concepts of pitching up or down in the zone. And you certainly won't find any mention of avoiding ever pitching up in the zone. I wonder if we're falsely attributing Blyleven's predictable lazy commentary ( "he left that pitch up" ) to the Twins.
  23. bird
    Kubel was a bad signing, but the right idea. Overpaying for an "actual OF" on the FA last year would have required a multi-year contract for a player that gets you maybe a few extra wins in a year that the team's going nowhere. (Not to mention the options are limited by the fact that the team's going nowhere.) This year is a little different. If Ryan finds an actual #2-3 type starter, like he did last year, then .500 is within sight, right? And from there, it makes a lot more sense to overpay for an actual OF, even on a 2-3 year contract. So this year, I'm with you, mike. It's funny how the conversation has evolved from finding useful ABs to insert in the lineup, then to avoiding wasted ABs from the likes of Kubel, and now to worries about blocking ABs from the likes of Rosario. This is the right time to find an actual OF, via trade or FA, and it's the first year of the rebuild in which having a guy like this might really matter.
  24. bird
    Again, there are field people in the organization that probably believe that Meyer would have been annihilated as a MLB starter last year. Why would anyone think the Twins had a goal of making him a AAA All-Star? It just doesn't make a lick of sense to think Meyer wasn't promoted for any other reason than that they disagree with you about how ready he was.
  25. bird
    Hicks serves as an example of why Ryan should, this time around, have a "back-up plan." This time around, he has no excuses. He has one other hole to fill of higher priority ( a #2-3 starter) so he has cash available should he want to resort to the FA market. And this time around, unlike even last year, he has relatively valuable trade chips. Bring in a veteran, and if Hicks, Rosario, or Schaefer stun us with a bout of excellence, well, super.
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