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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    Is there a difference between finding inner motivation and having the makeup for greatness? I think there is. Mackey's sources point to two massive deficiencies having led to this abysmal stretch. One is the obvious lack of talent. The other is "leadership" in the clubhouse among the players. I really think our inarticulate friend Gardy was trying to allude to signs he's beginning to see of maybe a couple of new faces that have the makeup "common in the all-time greats". You don't coach that stuff.
  2. bird
    Yes. All of the above, with the exception of half the fans and a quarter of the media. The timetable on it is another question.
  3. bird
    I agree with this in large part, but I think the larger truth is that Gardy has always been somewhat miss- rated by the fans because we lack both the full portfolio of meaningful information and we lack complete set of relevant criteria. Almost all of our judgments are derived from his pressers, his in-game behavior, and his W-L record. He's not a worse manager. He's simply worn out his welcome.
  4. bird
    Over the years, I've tended to be drawn to certain pitchers on the basis of my perception that the pitcher is a bulldog. I remember Mudcat Grant, perhaps falsely, as one of those guys who pitched well enough to stay in line for a win. Despite the fact that Camilo Pascual and Jim Kaat were beautiful to watch, I'd choose to go see Mudcat. I have no clue as to the accuracy of my perception, but I feel quite confident that the trait itself, bulldoggedness, and winning are at least marginally correlated. What I value is guys that can at least fool me into thinking they're more determined to win than the next guy. And because I want to believe there's at least some connection, I put a small premium on the guy with a favorable W-L record.
  5. bird
    I'd love to see a poll of TD contributors on how many pitchers on average in each year's Rule 5 draft are consensus future aces. If one is complaining that the Twins have simply refused or failed to draft those guys, then one must believe there are about one and one half dozen of these fellas in every draft, and we bypass them all the time. It's one thing to wonder, or even theorize, that the Twins have historically not had as keen an eye for pitching prospects as a few other organizations. It's an entirely different thing to make simplistic declarations like we've seen so tirelessly for years. The Twins only draft guys who throw strikes? The Twins avoid guys with velo? The Twins don't know how to recognize a prospect with an ace ceiling? Be fair about it. Could the lack of aces be at least in part because a vast majority of the two dozen aces in existence in MLB today were not available for us to draft?
  6. bird
    The only people I ever hear talking up this pitch to contact garbage on behalf of the Twins are all right here on Twins Daily.
  7. bird
    The last time a clear consensus "ace" was on the board when we drafted was 2013, and we drafted him (Kohl Stewart). The time before that was back in 2001, and they screwed up and took Mauer over Prior.
  8. bird
    Without looking anything up and relying on my decline-phase memory, I can recall both instances of promotion by emergency (Cordova, Stahoviak, Becker) and promotion by greed (Wynegar, Carew), but also a combo (Hrbek, Gaetti). Any way you cut it, I think history would show that the really elite players- the Pucketts, Carews, Blylevens- are pretty elite right from the start. That's why I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Buxton and Sano get the call and have success in 2015. And also why it's not surprising that guys like Hicks and Plouffe struggle and guys like Parmelee eventually flame out. What makes it so interesting are these mysteries. For example, is Pinto more like Plouffe, or will he end up more like Stahoviak?
  9. bird
    Exactly. Picking #1-10 gives you roughly a 75% chance of an All Star performer while picking #20-30 lowers it to under 25% as I recall from one study that's been mentioned here a lot. Isn't it funny how people inclined to find a way to criticize can have it both ways. You see, now that the farm system is perhaps five times better than, say, Detroit's, ALL the credit goes to 3 years of high draft choices. Three draft picks. But when there is mention of failed picks, NONE of the failure is ever more than begrudgingly attributed in some small part to the draft order. The truth of the matter is that the organization is far better than the average organization at scouting, drafting, signing, and developing players. Having top choices 3 years running does make it easier for sure, but it's not the only reason our system may be as much as 5 times better than Detroit's.
  10. bird
    Reviewing the past lists would be a lot of fun. However, the prospect quality today, going 50-deep is so vastly superior to what it was just a few years back. And the quality at the top in comparison? There was year not long ago when your top 6 pitching prospects, in order, were Anthony Swarzak, Carlos Gutierrez, David Bromberg, Kevin Mulvey, Tyler Robertson, and Anthony Slama. If you had to dig deeper, you were naming guys like Rob Delaney in he next tier. And you didn't misfire with the rankings, Seth. You won't find guys down the list that emerged. Today? Compare those guys to Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart, Jose Berrios, Lewis Thorpe, Trevor May, and Nick Burdi. And when you dig deeper into the system, you find a tier populated with guys like Stephen Gonsalves,Fernando Romero, Zack Jones, Taylor Rogers, JT Chargois, Jake Reed, and Michael Tonkin. You'd probably compare the 8 pitchers you've listed so far very favorably with the top 8 pitchers from the list headed up by Swarzak, don't you think? In my opinion, the quality and depth of pitching talent right now is almost hard to fathom, and I've been looking at this stuff since the 1960's.
  11. bird
    This aligns with one of his recent statements: when asked what he needed to accomplish this off-season, the first thing he mentioned was "rotation depth".
  12. bird
    Who's talking about this season as a whole? All thread long, we've been talking about these final games.
  13. bird
    Good to emphasize trading from actual surplus as opposed to a theoretical or wishful surplus. But we should also recognize that the Twins will know well before we do if a prospect has great chance to take the next step. Even so, they're not always going to get it right, as so much can go haywire, especially with a player's head.
  14. bird
    I have to respectfully say that I think this is complete hogwash. If this team was run by PR people, they'd have competent PR people. This organization is a Carlson School of Management case book study on how NOT to conduct a PR strategy. The money part? Well duh.
  15. bird
    I'm sorry guys, but I think those of you who believe that Gardy is playing Suzuki over Pinto to avoid a September swoon and keep his job are being cynical. Exactly what is it that akes you cringe at the thought that Gardy's doing what most managers do when facing contending teams at the end of a lost season? Are all managers self-serving then?
  16. bird
    I'm hoping Plan B is a young catcher from outside the system that projects to be be better than Suzuki, acquired via trade or FA, this off-season. If Pinto ends up being a money player, great. See ya, Suzuki.
  17. bird
    Again, it is not a fact that Pinto will improve with reps. We may not like it, but the much much greater likelihood is that Pinto is close to his ceiling as a catcher. Like everyone else, I had been hopeful that he'd be more accomplished out of the blocks in 2014. And maybe, similar to Plouffe, he'll be a late bloomer defensively. But, at this stage of his career I would have no problem with the Twins taking another direction as soon as 2015. Frankly, I'm almost as concerned about counting on Suzuki as the starter as I am counting on Pinto as the backup. I understand the distaste for playing to win against Detroit and leaving Pinto on the bench, but I can see the logic of respecting the contenders by playing to win, too. Either way, it's hardly a reason to get all whipped up on the manager.
  18. bird
    Because...?
  19. bird
    It is NOT a fact that Pinto will improve with more reps. It is also doubtful, at best, that Pinto, finishing his 9th year, is "in the part of his career to improve". It's completely reasonable that he's being used as he is right now.
  20. bird
    No, the argument is to play the young players just like they have been doing. Do you have a complaint about playing time given to May or Vargas or Santana? Pinto is not young. He's in his 9th year. Perhaps your disconnect is is failing to recognize that Gardy isn't delusional about who Pinto is as a player. Pinto is not the long-term answer you might want him to be, as a starting catcher OR a back-up catcher, or as a DH. He's in the same boat as Parmelee was, and remember, there were a lot of people ready to fire Gardy over denying playing time to Parmelee. Well, and of course, for any other reason.
  21. bird
    Yeah, I know, and it just irks me to no end that the Twins never ask for an opinion from those of us who know the drill.
  22. bird
    Exactly. Why agonize about ANY of the half-dozen or so pitchers that represent much-needed rotation depth? I don't recall anyone specifically predicting that Pelfrey would be lost for the season, but we know what happens historically as far as injuries go. In spite of Pelfry's absence, in 2014 both the Twins rotation and the Rochester rotation were improved talent-wise over 2013. I expect to check bad a year from now and see another year of better talent in both Rochester and Minneapolis. None of us can predict if Pelfrey will factor into this.
  23. bird
    Yes! I'd love it if you pulled aside instructors, even players, and asked them to name one player fans haven't heard much about that really sticks out in their mind.
  24. bird
    I don't buy that, nick. A lot of commenters liked the moves made last winter. The same commenters, not so much the year before. I think you're going to be pleasantly surprised by this group in a year or so. I remember a group with this vibe, losing big time at first. They weren't "bad players". Hrbek, Gaettii, Puckett et al were young and raw. Like this group. With the best of them not yet on display. This is a special group. That's what Gardy said, and people are crucifying him for it. This is not the second coming of the Rich Becker, Scott Stahoviak group. You can feel it. You don't need a handful more wins in their inaugural season to sense it.
  25. bird
    I'm all in favor of bringing on a new manager. Almost all of my hope for a change is because I'd like to see less vitriol directed at our field staff. For a year or so. This notion that his statements are some sort of calculated, self-serving strategy to fight for his job? Sorry, that's laughable to me. Frankly, I'm not sure Gardy is clever enough to pull something like that off. People read WAY too much into some of his comments. C'mon, he's just not that complicated.
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