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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    Chief, you're going to change your mind about Hicks once Torii has mentored the crap out of him.
  2. bird
    I'm sorry, I don't want to start a squabble here, but can't we move on from taking Ryan's comments at Torii's presser out of context and using them as some sort of definitive statement about his ignorance or disbelief in our beloved statistics? This doesn't help us get to the truth about what's going on with the team's use of advanced metics. It only serves to (I think) unfairly castigate Ryan, especially when we refuse to also discuss his very informed and valid observations on the subject.
  3. bird
    I think there was something written today about how Royals fans have had this misperception that KC is "out of date" regarding advanced metrics. I'd guess this type of misperception would be found in almost every market to some degree. The opinions are likely to be expressed by fans in every market on sites like this, where a good share of commenters are going to be huge believers in the benefits of using the statistics they so fervently enjoy. Just to be clear, like most of you, I believe Ryan and the Twins were not only late to the party, but continue to be pretty tepid about the process of incorporating systems to take advantage of the new information made available to them. That said, I'd probably place a lot less relative importance and value on it than most, perhaps due to my own ignorance.
  4. bird
    Yeah, calling for any change is pointless at this stage of the frenzy, I agree.
  5. bird
    I believe that this study failed to factor in the reality that lower-ceiling prospects get moved at a slower rate. The reason the perception is just now begrudgingly changing is because of the recent influx of high-ceiling prospects that are moving up faster. I can't back it up with statistics, but I really believe that most organizations tend to move prospects at basically the same rate. I'd bet that most of the anecdotal "exceptions" to this will involve desperate organizations and highly-touted prospects.
  6. bird
    Lower ticket prices for starters. How much money is enough? Work to reign in this bubble of insanity for the long-term interests of everyone, including, eventually, their own enterprises. Professional sports, including major college sports, is a pervasive system of greed at its worst. Unfortunately, its part of the larger system of rampant consumption that inflicts our culture. Just more obscene than a lot of the other stuff. There are plenty of villains, myself included. Fans who clamor for teams to spend on players, who reward the advertisers with their own spending, who elect officials who will spend even more for the rather select enjoyment of the financially elite, are a big part of the problem, so sorry, I just can't say "good for Boston" or "good for this 22-year old" who apparently "deserves" it. Sorry, it's just something that deeply saddens me when I think about all the suffering out there. We won't, but I just wish we'd all pause, step back, and be part of a voice calling for things to be toned down and pared back a bit over time.
  7. bird
    Outrageous and sad, frankly. If I'm running ISIL, this news gets incorporated into my training video. More wretched excess.
  8. bird
    I'm one of our number who appreciates the new statistics a lot, but who tends to refrain from discussing them per se. There are rare times when an avid aficionado of the new metrics uses them in blunt force in an argument to make a point, and in the process, condescends and/or ignores "unmeasurable" factors. It helps when both "sides" acknowledge as valid the existence of both measurable and unmeasurable factors. Catcher performance, to me, is perhaps the best example of how stats and unmeasurable factors collide in a discussion about it. Pitch-framing is measurable. Game-calling and being a pitcher whisperer is not. Could it be that managers almost invariably first cite the latter qualities when discussing a catcher's prowess because they don't understand the importance of pitch-framing? Is it also possible that stat lovers first cite pitch-framing and proclaim its importance because it's measurable and information about pitcher whispering is anecdotal and second-hand?
  9. bird
    #28 with BPro
  10. bird
    Here's a quick crack at it, with some yet to publish, like Sickles: Numbers below are in the order of ESPN, MLB, BA, BPro, and Fang Buxton: 2,1,2,1,2 Sano: 15,11,13,12,15 Berrios: 97,32,36,48,24 Meyer: 30,29,62,14,71 Stewart: 53, 36, WTF, 28,73 Gordon: 43,33,61,70,72 Thorpe made BPro at 91, Fang at, oh, 150 Polanco made Fang at 108, was cited as "just missed" elsewhere Burdi made BPro at 99, was Honorably Mentioned once or twice Rosario missed all, was #56 with Sickles last year, but haven't heard his name in chats myself May has been ignored this season and last Kepler hasn't been ranked since last year at #131 by someone Gonsalves has been mentioned once or twice in chats as one to watch Minier has also Lewin Diaz was recently reported to have drawn buzz from scouts this winter
  11. bird
    The authors of BA's rankings agree and have said as much.
  12. bird
    Wait a minute, are you mixing up Cole Nelson and Kohl Stewart? You're the very first draft expert I've heard describe Stewart as an overreach in the draft. And I don't recall hearing a single report on his performance last season that even remotely resembles yours. Sure you didn't just see him ( or Cole ) on a bad day?
  13. bird
    Didn't you just love it when Cookie Lavagetto put the double steal on for Killebrew and Battey?
  14. bird
    Loved it when the Killer powered one out to left-center, flipped the bat and stood admiring it, and then did the slow trot around the bases jawing with the pitcher. Not.
  15. bird
    Number one for me is the rotation, and not just the 5th starter. Will we field a rotation that's at least MLB average in 2015, and will we see evidence of much better than that for 2016 and beyond? Number two: will at least half of the most promising youngsters show signs of becoming impact players and mainstays? I'll be watching Arcia, Vargas, Hicks, Pinto, Santana, Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Kepler, May, Meyer, Gibson, Berrios, Tonkin, Graham, Reed and Burdi in particular. Will ten or more of them show further signs that they will become above-average major leaguers? My surprise candidates are Olivaros and Vargas.
  16. bird
    My bad, meant to say 28 prospects with grades of 60 or better. The Twns have three, the rest of the division has two.
  17. bird
    I would guess most every team's fans might feel this way, but very team has good prospects. FanGraphs gave 50 grades to 63 prospects and 45 grades to another 58, so yes, it's especially surprising to see Burdi and Rosario miss the cut. Gonsalves, May, and Kepler, not so much.
  18. bird
    In fact, only 28 players graded out at 55 or better. The Twins had six, Buxton (one of two prospects at 70; Sano and Berrios (60); and Meyer, Gordon and Stewart (55). Only two other prospects in the AL Central graded higher than 55: Rodon (65) and Lindor (60). The rest of the ALC combined matched us with six prospects at 55 or better. None of those are Detroit prospects, whose highest ranked prospect was #132.
  19. bird
    If I was czar, er, commissioner, I'd have a policy: no player is bestowed a single award of any kind during their own lifetime if they've been found to be a cheater. Don't let the ******** enjoy more adulation. Then, I'd also have a policy that no player, once they're dead, will be denied an award on the basis of gambling or drugging. Posthumous and asterisked. Let the fans savor their baseball memories and history.
  20. bird
    I'm skeptical of the conclusion being drawn by Mans. Is he parroting some scout's opinion? Has anyone else definitively linked Meyer's shoulder problem to a flaw in his mechanics? It's entirely possible that it's true, and maybe I'm struggling with semantics. Most of the observations I've read talk about his height and the inherent difficulty in repeating his delivery, but I don't recall talk about his mechanics being "flawed" or a lot of talk about how he has "motion issues" that subject him to this greater risk of injury. And Mans's is the first opinion I've encountered that makes a direct link between his mechanics and his injury history.
  21. bird
    Jeff Mans has been playing fantasy baseball since he was 12 years old and was a PC repair mogul until he decided to become an expert at pitching mechanics. I sure hope someone is printing his comments off and xeroxing them to hand deliver to the dinosaurs over at Target Field so they can be alerted to the problem. Maybe they can get someone in here to fix Meyer's mechanics on a freelance basis.
  22. bird
    Agreed. And a few of those were high-value players i.e.. Knobby, Milton AJ, Span, which are the types I'm hoping he gets premium returns for in the future. I was thinking more of the problem we've had losing players to FA instead of trading for acceptable returns, like Hawkins, Hunter, Guardado, Santana, Cuddyer, etc.
  23. bird
    This is about the farm system, though, right?
  24. bird
    My caveat to this is let's make sure his replacement, when MLB ready, is not a drop-off for us. Keep the best relievers, regardless of role, and don't worry about how close we are to competing for the division title, since that can happen sooner than we expect it. And we may soon have a numbers of fairly high-quality trade chips. Plouffe and Dozier come to mind, and we may even have a starter or two that will at least garner Grade C+ or better prospects. Nice change from Butera for Sulbaran or Fuld for Milone.
  25. bird
    No player's, owner's, or manager's political, religious, or moral viewpoint should matter one iota UNLESS those viewpoints have a negative effect on the clubhouse, the on-field performance, the financial performance of the organization, or the reputation of the organization and its stakeholders. The more an organization separates its own reputation from the personal lives of its players, the better in my opinion. An organization can support good behavior, like Morneau's charitable event for example, but it runs risks by exploiting an individual personality. How often does the off-field behavior of an athlete actually do something POSITIVE for the organization independent of the teams' own orchestrated events? So I couldn't disagree more, Paul. If I ran the Twins, I'd tell every employee to be very private about their private lives, and I'd monitor Twitter to gauge whether any of my players were acting like fools and hence heightening my inclination towards including them in trade talks. If you follow some of these players on Twitter, they'll make you cringe on occasion. Tell you what, if I'm the Twins, I'm having a little sit-down this spring with a few of these guys and encouraging them to tone down their Twitter entries.
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