bird

Wow, Parker. Thank you, what terrific insight!

No need to be snarky, jokin, and I don't think you know for certain what the situation was last year with Meyer in AAA despite your extreme confidence. As has been pointed out many times, Meyer had to contend with three intertwining challenges: an innings limit, nagging injury problems, and mechanical problems that affected his efficiency. Just because no one called you with a report about it doesn't mean the staff in Rochester didn't call Ryan with one. The Twins and Ryan could have communicated better for sure. Some of us think your criticism in this particular instance is unfair and lacks factual support. But we don't deserve a "nice try" as if we're conjuring something up, and we don't appreciate being labelled the TR defense team any more than others want to be labelled Negative Nellies.

First of all, every team has resource limits, even teams like Detroit and the Yankees. If it's not cash assets (payroll budget), it's roster assets (most teams have a shortage, not a surplus), or prospects (not fully appreciated). And while you have partially described what is a continual process of managing assets for a baseball team, you've done so in extremely simplistic terms. For example, while the Twins had some "moveable" assets on the roster, they did not have great value, certainly not enough to convert the team back into a contender, not given the lack of prospects ready to step in. And to acquire assets for cash? They did that to an extent, but every team, including the Yankees, is coming to grips with the reality that it's not a sustainable model. Even the Yankees are building a better prospect pipeline. Detroit is one of the few teams attempting to sustain its success by exchanging cash and prospects for roster assets, and they've made it work beautifully for a nice length of time. However, when the roster assets get injured or depreciate, they're finally out of prospects to deal. The Twin's Taylor Rogers, Jason Wheeler, and Tyler Duffey probably have more value than the Tiger's top three prospects, and none of these guys makes our top ten. Like it or not, that's how the Twins are going about the asset management process. And it's certainly OK to take issue with it. They could choose to increase the payroll budget even more and acquire a frontline player or two via FA, for example. But even then, I'm hearing critical comments about length of contracts as if that is simply a choice instead of a market factor. It's not a simple business.

Sabermetrics.

One bird's opinion: Revere trade: very good decision Span trade: good decision, good risk, may still eventually produce huge results Hicks to CF with a lousy backup plan: very bad decision Not trading for or making a FA CF acquisition for 2015: good decision, with Schaefer, Hicks, Robinson, Rosario as placeholder options for less than a full season that will not require more than that.

I was not happy about Stauffer and Boyer being brought in myself. But I also think a good argument could be made that it's a pretty close call comparing every one of the pitchers you've mentioned. It just leaves me with a hollow feeling to have the BP get older, if even for a half-year of another uncompetitive season. But in the defense of Molitor/Allen/Ryan, none of the guys sent to Rochester did a whole lot this spring to sway them. Personally, I liked Thompson over Thielbar and am hoping Tonkin and Oliveros step up their games a bit. I liked the Graham pickup.

OK, most every OTHER expert then. The point I was making was that if you're going to argue it's a bad trade, you must argue that it was a bad decision, as perhaps jokin will do retrospectively here. Many of us thought the trade was not just an acceptable risk, but an important one given the dearth of options. It's reasonable to argue otherwise, but good decisions and bad results are not mutually exclusive. No one is telling the Cards they made a bad decision on Oscar Taveras. For someone to say that it's entirely possible to predict and then control something like a pitching prospect's development is nonsensical and naive. In this game, there's uncertainty at every turn for the GM. But again, the jury will remain out for a long long time on this trade.

Spending choices are dependent on a lot of factors, but probably the set answer is regarding the timing of expensive and risky contracts. If spending $100M changes you from a 65 win to 75 win team, maybe it makes sense to delay that kind of risk until the stars are better aligned. I think your opinion about Ryan is perfectly understandable.

I'm sure glad you don't sit on my board of directors. At the time of he trade, most every expert I recall labelled it a good trade, did they not? Perhaps you were one of the experts who didn't like the trade, and for that you get a nice big pat on the fanny. But, there is such a thing as a good decision that ends up with a bad result. And we don't have results yet when it comes to Meyer.

Your viewpoint that the Twin's and Ryan's reaction to the 2011 collapse was ignorance and/or incompetence are a common and understandable conclusion. I don't think it was either. Granted, the road since then includes mistakes and bad decisions. It also has Ryan's aggravating imprint on it: conservative, deliberate, risk-averse, half-measures, etc. I can see the argument for firing him (although the whole saber metrics theme hardly enters into it for me). But I cut him slack because he started the cleanup process in 2012 with limited resources in all three key asset categories upon which the turnaround could take place. He lacked tradable MLB assets, he lacked minor league assets to use for either trade or promotion, and he lacked the kind of FA budget that would have been required given the paucity in the other two categories. Like it or not, Ryan's strategic options were limited for all practical purposes to replenishing the minor league assets. Very few GM's have pulled off a rebuild based of FA spending and been able to sustain a level of excellence. I think the Twins and Ryan recognize this. And from where I'm sitting, the strategy they have pursued, while imperfect and painful for fans, is on plan and only off schedule due to injuries to Buxton and Sano.

This week, the guys you're thinking of as scrap heap players, Stauffer, Graham, et al, would probably do a bit better against a MLB lineup than the most promising arms that people are discussing. Burdi, Reed, and Chargois have not exactly been dominating...yet. I think we get into the habit when someone falters on the big club of getting mesmerized by readings on a radar gun or a few minor league stats and then we assume things. I can't count the number of commenters on two hands that skewered the Twins for blocking Meyer in AAA to start the season. And after two starts, he's thrown 190 pitches, only half for strikes, has walked over a batter per inning, and has an ERA 8+. And now I'm waiting for comments skewering Ryan for screwing up the guy, and for more comments skewering him for making a lousy trade in the first place. The Ryan I see is flawed. Because I believe his job is really hard, and because on balance I see more accomplishments than failings despite the four-year record which is due to additional factors besides Ryan's performance, I wouldn't replace him right now. But I get it, he's the logical scapegoat.

Hahahaha Now THAT's funny! Thanks for the revelation.

Tom Kelly used to say it takes about six weeks to really know what you have. I have a feeling he'd need less than half that time with this bunch, and he wouldn't like what he saw. The two physical errors yesterday came from the 24th and 25th players on the roster. Much of the bad relief work is coming from the last couple guys in that group. What a terrible outfield! Like his reviled predecessor, Molitor has started infielders because his head case outfielder Arcia apparently needs some down time. At the plate. He's giving Hunter time off too. Personally, I'm hoping he gives Hunter a six-month furlough, because he looks bad. At the plate. And please, Mr. Rosario, be for real and set Rochester on fire. Schaefer is no fun to watch. In the field. For me, this team won't be enough fun to watch until a few from the next wave come up, so I'll see you after the birds have all migrated through in late May. Except I'll watch May this afternoon.

But what would you do if you thought Meyer needed Allen more than Mason? Bring an overmatched Meyer to the big club and hide him in the bullpen? My guess is that he's better off in Rochester and that he'll get it figured out.

It was Milone who was awarded the rotation spot that might otherwise have gone to May coming out of camp. A decision made by the Twins after careful deliberation, don't you think? Hell, we all wanted to see May over Pelfrey as a rotation option at the end of spring training, despite Pelfrey's decent showing and May arguably not stretched out. Installing Pelfrey instead of May when Santana got caught? Yes, I'd have gone with May if they'd asked me. I have no complaints about those complaints, one of which was my own.

Perhaps with the exception of May for multiple consecutive starts last year, you're going to have to give me some examples of all these best prospects who have gone multiple dominating starts and stayed in AAA. You say it's happened a few times. Your simple answer to the rhetorical question is a "well duh" answer. Except for the important caveat that it makes perfect sense for the pros making these decisions to make a judgment about whether Meyer would necessarily do better than Pelfrey and whether Meyer is best-served in terms of his development. I certainly don't have an opinion about that, and you and the Twins appear to have a difference of opinion regarding this important caveat.

Meyer threw 87 pitches, 44 for strikes, in 5 innings in his last start. He gave up six walks and eight hits. How does this jibe with your opinion? Meyer is getting competent coaching right where he is. Allen isn't a miracle worker.

Pelfrey was an uninspiring signing. Both times. I think Ryan has always viewed Pelfrey as a back of the rotation replacement level guy "with benefits". Frankly, his contract is pretty much in line with the market these days for this type of pitcher, isn't it? The benefits being innings and a veteran presence. This hasn't worked out so well for Mr. Ryan. In this particular case, I think it's fair to say "questionable decision, bad results." Pelfrey wouldn't be here if there had been in-house options ready to go. So the debate should be more about who's ready to go. Let's just hope May comes out dealing. Let's hope Meyer's dismal first start was a fluke. Let's let some prospects make a couple two-three dominating starts. If THAT happens, and they keep an under-performing starter in the MLB rotation, THEN it'll be time to do some complaining. If no one comes through like that at Rochester and Chattanooga, then the complaints about the guys Ryan brought in is basically relegated to a rehash of why he didn't bring in someone else instead. When someone asks "Why Pelfrey", I think the next question right now is "Why Meyer".

Geez, if they think THAT was offensive, they should listen to him do color commentary of a baseball game.

I think it's rational to hold this hope and to discount past history, for two reasons. One, the rotation, despite the loss of Ervin and the possible loss of Ricky, should limit the need for reinforcements, but second and more importantly, my bet is they'll be more confident about this season's options. Besides May and Meyer, who we have heard are on call, I'm speculating that they feel better about Rogers, Wheeler, and maybe even Duffey and Berrios than they felt about their #7-8 starters last season.

Wasn't talking about no baby. But I guess it's as good an excuse as any. :-). (A jimmer emoticon)

Wouldn't you?

Yeah, I wouldn't trade them Pinto even-up. Wouldn't want to give up Pinto's defense.

Waiting for this comment to be retweeted by Blyleven.

My thought as well. I tend to dislike Mauer's walks with runners on, but he had nuthin to swing at either time. And who can blame the pitcher? Hunter looks like he can't get around on a 90MPH fastball right now.