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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    I agree with this. On paper, even if 75% of the good things happen in terms of avoiding regression, emerging production from youngsters, and rebounding performance from vets, the four other teams still look a little better on paper. But injuries and disappointments happen for other teams too. If Detroit is forced to go with Buck Farmer and Lobstein in the rotation because of injuries, for example...
  2. bird
    Using Ryan's words from that single press conference is the epitome of word-parsing.
  3. bird
    The wins may not increase dramatically, but I'm hoping to see as huge an incremental improvement this year as we saw last year. We went from being out of games by the third inning in 2013 to being in most games in 2014. Unwatchable baseball in 2013, increasingly entertaining stuff in 2014. Signs of improvement from guys like Dozier and Plouffe, the first peeks at two exciting and promising guys, Santana and Vargas, who couldn't crack our top 10 prospect lists, and despite the setbacks from Buxton and Sano, we saw remarkably encouraging performances from a slew of prospects who will potentially see the big leagues some time this year. I know what the record was last year, but I felt like I was watching a "winner" by the end of the season to a large extent. I expect 2015 to be a ton of fun to watch.
  4. bird
    I re-read Diehard's excellent Post #28 and fail to see that he provided one single reason why Boyd was a bad pick. I mean, Holy Mickey Lolich, what am I missing? Is the 6'2" Boyd a bad choice because Diehart is 5'8"?
  5. bird
    Of course he hasn't. He presumably has a very serious illness. He's like hundreds and hundreds of minor leaguers over the years that have struggled to live up to their enormous potential. I'd guess abusing alcohol has been the downfall of many of talented prospects. Boyd still has time to overcome his addiction (assumption here), stop the craziness that accompanies addiction, and put his life and career in order. He's just another sound draft choice gone awry, at least temporarily in his case. It's a scenario that gets played out every year, and in every organization. He is not an example of poor drafting.
  6. bird
    Here are some of the names I've seen high, like top ten, on the lists of rankers that are not consensus names (yet): Pitchers: Tonkin, Melotakis, Rogers, Burdi, Goncalves, Jorge Hitters: Kepler, Walker, Minier, Diaz
  7. bird
    Or, maybe they have a really terrific fundamental understanding of strategy but have bigger fish to fry right now. Like making sure all these new, immensely talented players learn how to be team players and accountable professionals. If Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and the like are roaming the outfield in less than a year and they have a top tier OF defense, are you going to conclude that they suddenly gained a fundamental understanding of strategy? Levi believes, I think, that the Twins don't fully appreciate the value of good outfield defense. That's a reasonable point of view.
  8. bird
    Yeah, I did that ice bucket challenge. They took a picture of me and fired it into the internet on that face book thingy.
  9. bird
    It's going to be an interesting season (for a change) regardless of the record (79 wins, btw ). With so many candidates for recession, and so many candidates for breakout, and failure, and comebacks. At least we'll have some decent story lines, right?
  10. bird
    Neither would I. And I'd make the distinction between good draft selections (the opposite of poor draft selections) and "failed first rounders", which I can accept about Parmelee. A player can actually be both.
  11. bird
    I'm going to push back a lot on any assessment of "poor drafting" in our recent past. Go all the way back ten years, acknowledging that roughly 30% of top ten selections fail and roughly 75% of bottom third first-rounders flunk out, and tell me which of our first-round picks are evidence of poor drafting. Michael (#30) and Parmelee (#22), I would argue, are kinda par for the course given they were late selections in shallow draft years IIRC. Poor draft results can be the result of things other than "poor drafting", and Hudson Boyd might be just another example of a good pick gone bad. It happens to everyone.
  12. bird
    Let's root for this kid and cut him some slack, as the Twins appear willing to do. Drug and alcohol abuse and addiction require from us some understanding, but the individual affected by it has to own up to the problem too, of course. And let's cut the organization a little slack too. This isn't a case of "poor drafting" necessarily, is it?
  13. bird
    And it's selection bias that causes the myth about the Twins being slow promoters to perpetuate itself. Cause and effect get all confused up and stuff. It's talent, character, and health that determine the rate of improvement and that are the determining factors in whether a prospect ever becomes MLB ready. Ryan O'Rourke wasn't at a high level at a young age because his talent is limited. If he were more talented, he might have been drafted and signed out of high school like Thorpe was. Thorpe is at a higher level at a younger age because he's got almost unlimited talent and is developing because of it. I may be wrong about this, but I just haven't been presented with any evidence that contradicts it: like every other organization, the Twins are "slow" in promoting the O'Rourkes and fast in promoting the Thorpes. Talent begets developmental progress, and injuries always are a factor.
  14. bird
    Aren't quite a few teams, even some with winning records and a better product, having trouble drawing? Wasn't Cleveland drawing poorly this season? I saw a quick blurb on SoxFest, going on right now, in which Hahn and Ventura looked like they were presenting in front of about 15 people. How are the numbers for TwinsFest?
  15. bird
    There are likely several causes of the decline in sales, although the poor and uninteresting product is the biggest. Is it possible that fewer fans are going to be willing to shell out $50 per head for a night of baseball? I personally know several people who still follow the team but don't go to the park, at least with their former regularity, simply because "it's too expensive." Baseball has priced the middle class out of the stadium experience in my opinion. I've predicted it for a long time and been wrong, so I guess I'll stick with my prediction that we will soon reach a clearing price where demand will fall more precipitously based on economic factors alone. The whole economic structure of the game sickens me, frankly, which is why I have avoided the stadium (for the most part) and will until or unless it becomes affordable for more people once again. Wretched excesses.
  16. bird
    Just a word of caution though. If we had insisted on a "useable assessment" of 1.5-2 years on Plouffe to cite just one example (particularly if it was the FANS' assessment), he'd have been DFA'd two years ago, just like a number of commenters on TD suggested. Guys like Parmelee aren't kept around because the Twins don't have a useable assessment. It's not that simple. Thankfully we're entering a stage where they can trot out better alternatives now.
  17. bird
    Any way you cut it, the thing that matters is progress from Meyer and May. The scenario I dread is Meyer lacking efficiency and command and May being too wild. Because, even if Milone, Pelfrey, and Nolasco all turn their performances around, their best is pretty much mediocrity, and we're treated to a 75% chance of witnessing another loss when they pitch. I still think we're due for one last season where wins and losses, practically speaking, don't matter and individual progress is paramount. I'm really hoping that all three of the veterans return to mediocrity, and that we can offload one (Nolasco?) before opening day for a reasonable return and another (Milone?) at the trade deadline for a prospect. Progress by Meyer and/or May isn't a given, but dammit, it's high time we have a little good fortune!
  18. bird
    I agree about May and think the Twins should be strongly skewing the benefit of the doubt in favor of both Meyer and May over Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone. But I'd suggest that MOST of what gets evaluated regarding a player's performance during spring training happens outside of games and therefore outside of the fans' purview. It would be unwise to base decisions solely on game results, and it's a bit myopic of fans to argue for one player over the other based on the same, but we see that happen all the time. I won't get terribly worked up, I guess, with whatever call they make. Except Pelfrey. I'm tipping over Volkswagens on University by the Armory if they go with Pelfrey.
  19. bird
    Those are pretty much the gimmes. It'll be interesting to see if any of Burdi, Polanco, May, or Thorpe sneak in.
  20. bird
    I think I read a response to a commenter that said 36 of the top 100 prospects will be RHP's. For the Twins, isn't it likely we see Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, and Burdi? Is May no longer eligible?
  21. bird
    Good point about Nolasco being on notice that he'll be expected to pitch his way into the rotation. Gibson said he fully expects he'll need to compete for a spot. Let's not discount Ryan's stated concerns about Nolasco's state of mind about being a Twin. It would not shock me at all if we broke camp without Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone on the roster.
  22. bird
    And of course, it's not a player's slightly more advanced age that causes him to miss out on having a productive big league career. Rather, it's the player's deficiencies that cause him to be incapable of faster advancement. So, when we look at someone- let's use LHRP Ryan O'Rourke as an example- it's his persistent inability to keep from getting clobbered by righties, and not his age, that lowers his prospect status. Stating he obvious....
  23. bird
    One of the things I notice from Gleeman is occasional observations like "of the pitchers who threw more than 50 innings, none was less than two years older than..." So maybe simply restricting the universe to, say, the highest OPS'ers or something would capture a statistically meaningful segment and address jokin's guys too and give you a good enough sense about it.
  24. bird
    My guess is he failed the character quiz with Ryan.
  25. bird
    Jimmer, I think you and I would have very similar perceptions about the quality of Hunter's defense. The metrics would tend to support our perception. Why would anyone think the eyeballs put on him by the Twins would be less discerning than ours? That seems to me to be hyper-critical. So yes, Ryan's comments should be regarded in context, with proper semantical license.
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