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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    I didn't say his velo is only going to drop, just that it is not likely to increase. Guys with his frame are known to retain their velo into their 30s. The fact that his velo stays consistent into the seventh inning is an indicator that he is likely to do so, barring injury. That, combined with spotty control, makes him a much better fit for starting than relieving.
  2. cmathewson
    Guys learn new pitches all the time. Johan Santana was a FB/Slider guy when we got him. He added a plus change at age 23 and, if I recall correctly, he became a pretty good pitcher. When talking about guys developing after a certain age, we normally focus on the limitations of their bodies. You don't expect a guy to add velo after 24. But adding or refining a breaking pitch is actually quite common. It's not like he doesn't have one. He has two. But they're "fringy" to use Jonathan Mayo's term.
  3. cmathewson
    FB/Change guys should be starters. He just needs to develop a better breaking ball. And, of course, more consistent control. In 2013, he'd get into a groove and throw two or three really good games. In the next game, he'd come out and walk the first two guys and just never get into a rhythm. You can't teach velocity. Give him a year at AAA to work on a more repeatable delivery and a better breaking ball and he could be a factor in 2015.
  4. cmathewson
    I'd like some sort of editorial calendar of content by regular participants. Say, John, Parker, Nick, Seth and two other regular participants writes a weekly column on a given day. When I was EIC of CU, we had this and it gave regular visitors who are not daily visitors a reason to come and follow their favorite authors. Do that for six days a week and leave the seventh day for guest columns by the unwashed masses, such as myself. While I couldn't contribute weekly, I could write like three pieces a year.
  5. cmathewson
    I think the Twins are more likely to scoop on Vernon Wells than Mark Reynolds. Wells could play LF against lefties, with Willingham moving to DH. He could also spell Arcia. He'd be no more than an emergency center fielder, but he'd be a better fit. Reynolds does nothing at third or the outfield and you really don't need a back-up at first much.
  6. cmathewson
    If you haven't noticed, Morneau was a 0 WAR player last year. He hasn't put up a 1+ WAR since 2010. The thought is, moving Mauer to first will enhance his offense. It should Even if he stays steady state, a Pinto/Suzuki platoon should produce more WAR than Morneau. The other thing is regression to the mean for several of Twins payers. Willingham, Plouffe, whoever occupies CF, and hte RF position with Arcia, all will likely have better years than last year. So I expect at least 50 more runs out of this offense. Of course, when you go from -0.2 WAR (Worley) to 3.0 WAR (Nolasco) and -0.2 (Diamond) to 1.3 WAR (Hughes), you substantially reduce the number of runs allowed. That's how you get to 82 wins.
  7. cmathewson
    I'm mostly going on reports from Twins scouts. But, yes, he is said to have better range than Florimon. Similar instincts and jumps, more speed. Stronger arm.
  8. cmathewson
    The real value of Drew is not this year. He might push their 82-win season to 85. Still, they don't make the playoffs, and likely slip at least two slots in the draft. The real value of Drew is next year and the year after. The difference between 90 and 92 wins could mean the difference between going to the postseason or not. The question should not be how much better is he than Florimon? but how much better will he be than Santana? I don't think it's 2 wins. I think Santana will be at least a win above replacement. I'm not sure Drew at his age will continue to be above 2 WAR over the life of his contract. Now you're talking really thin margins for your investment.
  9. cmathewson
    The closest I got was Game 6 in 91. I was in Row 2 of section 210, right behind home plate. Gladden leads off the bottom of the first, takes a hack at the first pitch and fouls it straight back. It was coming right to me. I had my glove up (I was the only one in the second deck with a glove). And the drunk guy in front of me jumped up and swatted the ball back into the netting behind home plate. Bitter dregs to this day.
  10. cmathewson
    Best defensive infielder. Yeah he had 30 errors. he also has otherworldly range. Much better than Florimon. If he cleans up his errors, he could easily outperform Florimon in the field.
  11. cmathewson
    Bartlett, Hicks, Ramirez, Guerra, Fryer
  12. cmathewson
    Bartlett, Hicks, Ramirez, Guerra, Fryer
  13. cmathewson
    I would add that he is small and stature and has a delivery reminiscent of Deduno.
  14. cmathewson
    I'm guessing Kepler and Polanco are in the top 13, if they had one. The only other name missing is Pinto, whom BP had five or six.
  15. cmathewson
    Hey, look at that hot girl! Update: it's a dude.
  16. cmathewson
    Swarzak had an ERA+ of 139 last year. That would lead the starting staff. But, last year was his first major league season with zero starts. The previous year, he started 5 games and his ERA+ was 82. His ERA during those 5 starts was over 8. It was just around 4 as a reliever. If I were the Twins coaches, I would keep him in the bullpen and hope he doesn't regress too much to the mean.
  17. cmathewson
    I expect them to do at least one more signing before spring training. While I'm disappointed they haven't yet, i understand what's holding things up. In the case of pitchers, it's the Tanaka signing, which will set the market for guys like Garza. In the case of position players, it's the agent, who knows the value of his clients' contracts will only go up as we approach spring training. He's playing a game of chicken with the GMs interested in his players. And he will likely win. I am less optimistic on those guys simply because Ryan gets them only if Boras loses his game. It has happened (Kenny Rogers). But that is rare.
  18. cmathewson
    I don't know if this is just psychology or what. If you really want a guy to pitch well in long relief, make him prepare to be a starter and keep that carrot in front of his nose.
  19. cmathewson
    I hope we don't need 13 pitchers. Hopefully Nolasco and Hughes can eat some innings and prevent that.
  20. cmathewson
    The problem with this is you were not able to see all the pitchers of Jack's era as often as you saw Jack. So, naturally, you will recall his performances more than other pitchers who are just as worthy or worthier. That's one reason we have stats, which, by the way, we have always had. They were just less reliable before Sabremetrics. Stats are our way of correcting the biases that happen naturally no matter how much time we've spent watching the game we love. In the case of the HOF vote, there are so many voters to correct for these biases. The fact that he didn't get in after years and years of such votes is an indicator that he doesn't belong, at least not his bust.
  21. cmathewson
    Curious about your comment. Presumably, a former first-round pick has some talent. I understand he was hurt last year and struggled. That doesn't say as much about his talent as his injury.
  22. cmathewson
    The problem with Parmelee is he hits from the same side as the likely starters at first and RF. I could see getting another bat to spell the starters at those positions. But it would make more sense if it was a right-handed bat. Colabello qualifies, but I'm not sure he's the answer. They've talked about signing Reynolds, but he can't play OF.
  23. cmathewson
    What's a key party? Anywhoo, I think it's equally likely that pitchers will not throw as many heaters to Arcia when behind in the count. And the game of cat and mouse will commence. While I think he can improve on his pitch recognition skills. I hope he doesn't change his approach and suddenly become a patient hitter. We will need those violent swings.
  24. cmathewson
    I echo Pseudo's sentiments. It's sad that Bonds, Rodriguez, McGuire and Clemons will be in the class with Rose. They all would have been HOF players without the juice. Not sure about Palmeiro. He was a slow slap hitter before the juice. Still, such a bloody waste of talent.
  25. cmathewson
    My bad, I thought Krueger was the April winner and fourth starter in '91, that was '92. Anderson was the fourth starter in '91.
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