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Physics Guy

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Everything posted by Physics Guy

  1. Physics Guy
    We need some way to find if people are being sarcastic. Maybe we use some "patron saint of bad ideas" that we could use to let people know. How about, "as reported by Patrick Reusse". Examples: We should have gone to 6 million for Marquis. As Reported by Patrick Reusse. We could get James Shields for Ben Revere and Anthony Slama. As Reported by Patrick Reusse. How's about "as posted by VodkaDave?" Speaking of snark...
  2. Physics Guy
    Forgot: Scott Erickson Puck played 21 G at AAA in '84 before being called up, skipped AA
  3. Physics Guy
    In addition: Roger Erickson Knoblauch Radke Milton (AA with Yankees, straight to majors next year) Guzman Mientkiewicz Becker 3 games in majors at 21 before AAA, played 107 G at AAA next two seasons as well as with Twins
  4. Physics Guy
    Also note that the good part of Hunter's age 22 OPS came from his time in Salt Lake, a place where I think I could OPS at .700. Inflated numbers yes, but small sample size. Less than 100 AB.
  5. Physics Guy
    velocity on potches Given the choice I'd rather have guys with higher velocity, but Marcum averaged 86.5 mph with his fastball last year and had 7.9 K/9. Slama averages over 10K/9 in the minors. Give him a legit chance and if he doesn't cut it, let him go.
  6. Physics Guy
    I don't disagree with you, but the bullpen is getting awfully crowded: Perkins, Burton, Duensing, Fien, Burnett, Swarzak, Robertson, Roenicke, DeVries?, Pressly? I guess that doesn't bode well for Slama's chances, not that he had any. This is probably how we keep him.
  7. Physics Guy
    Great job, Terry Ryan. Glad to have you back running the show. While I will miss watching Revere running around the diamond, I don't see why anybody would cause a fuss about trading him. I honestly think Hicks can equal, if not exceed, Revere's production this year. Revere's minor league slash line: .325/.383/.787 Hicks' minor league slash line: .271/.379/.800 Mastroianni's mi.lg. slash line: .279/.368/.739 If Hicks isn't quite ready, Mastro can keep his place warm for a month or two. As a top of the order guy, isn't OBP the most important? Hicks is already Revere's equal there. He also has substantially more upside, potentially moving to the middle of the order if his power continues to develop. Revere's OPS was inflated by his first two years. Hicks' second best OPS was last year. Revere may cover more ground, but Hicks is no slouch and has an above average/great arm (potential as a P in draft). Something else to ponder: Hunter in his Age 22 year (Mostly AA New Britain, end at AAA Salt Lake): .295/.333/.796 Hicks in his Age 22 year (AA New Britain): .288/.384/.844 Hicks put up similar power numbers, but better OBP.
  8. Physics Guy
    I'd agree more with Willingham since he is unlikely to increase his value during the season. If Morneau can show health and slight improvement from last year he would certainly gain value and might be a good July trade to a contending team in need of a 1B who at that point is only owed $7M.
  9. Physics Guy
    Just read a Tweet from Danny Knobler (CBSSports) that said Reds, WhiteSox and Yankees all interested in Hannahan. Still think we can get him for a minor league contract and ST invite?
  10. Physics Guy
    Agreed, but 2/$15 is a little more than he is probably worth. Problem is TR is going to end up without a chair when the music stops if he isn't willing to overpay a little. There are still a large number of FA pitchers out there, but it sure seems as though TR is just waiting for guys like Edwin Jackson last year who get desperate and sign a favorable deal. You don't end up with the guys you necessarily want in that scenario. Maybe TR thinks they are all a dime a dozen and doesn't care who he ends up with as long as he can get three guys.
  11. Physics Guy
    My guess: 1 of the following: Marcum, Blanton, McCarthy 1 of the following: Myers, Liriano, Saunders 1 of the following: Millwood, Correia, Bedard Pretty awe-inspiring,eh? I hope I am wrong and that one of the bottom three is replaced with Sanchez or Jackson.
  12. Physics Guy
    Sorry jorgenswest, I missed the citation at the bottom. My bad.
  13. Physics Guy
    What is your source for Runs Saved? I am very skeptical of a metric that says Span is significantly better than Revere in CF. The eye test doesn't support that conclusion (at least my eye doesn't). While the development of defensive metrics is a very worthwhile endeavor, we have to look upon them with some skepticism. The discussion is worth having, but it appears you have cherry-picked stats to support your argument. Span's UZR/150 last year was 9.6, Revere's was 18.6 (from FanGraphs). When discussing defense I think it's best to look at several stats. Also from what I understand, some defensive metrics are prone to vary significantly from year to year. Unfortunately, we don't have several years worth of stats for Revere.
  14. Physics Guy
    I think Hanahan is exactly the type of player Ryan would bring in to be a platoon or guard against Plouffe regressing. He is cheap and is a lefty hitting option.
  15. Physics Guy
    Boy we sure are quick to write off Plouffe as a 3B. He is a former SS who just this year moved to 3B. Do you remember what Koskie was like when he started? If he works at it I don't see any physical reasons why he can't be at least a league-average defensive 3B. Give him some time to transition to the position. His arm strength doesn't seem to limit him from being a 3B, but his range doesn't bode well for a switch to 2B. As much as I would love his bat at 2B, putting him there makes our middle infield defense even worse.
  16. Physics Guy
    I hope the Twins decide on the Medlen route for Gibson rather than the Stasburg route. I would rather he starts in the pen and bring him along slowly to limit his innings.
  17. Physics Guy
    Hendriks absolutely should have the #5 spot in the rotation. Outside of Gibson, he is the only prospect at SP with any sort of upside that is major league ready. Hendriks has nothing left to prove in the minors. His rate stats last year are comparable to Viola and Milton when they first came up, albeit they were a year younger. Milton and Viola both had more innings 172 and 126 vs 85 for Hendriks. I wish Gardy had just left Liam in the rotation the way Kelly did with Milton and Viola on crappy teams. Then maybe we would have a better idea of what we have. I just hope it isn't Kevin Slowey.
  18. Physics Guy
    I could live with Myers OR Liriano, whichever will sign first for under 5M a year. Either one for 4-5M is preferable to signing Marquis for 3M. If Feldman is worth 6M, I'm not sure that will happen. Going on the premise that seems to be the prevailing opinion, that the Twins sign two FA and trade for one other pitcher, one of the two FA has to be better than that pair. If they sign both, the trade better be for a #1 or #2.
  19. Physics Guy
    Wookie, you may be overestimating LaRoche's impact on our ability to trade Morneau. He was tendered the 1 year offer so signing him would cost the team a first or second round pick.
  20. Physics Guy
    He should start in Cedar Rapids. If he earns it, he will be promoted to Ft. Myers mid-season. That gives him a shot at New Britain sometime the following season. We'll be lucky if he gets a cup of coffee at Target Field by 2015.
  21. Physics Guy
    Brett Myers Age 29 Season: 223 IP, 180 K, 1.24 WHIP, 3.14 ERA Age 30 Season: 216 IP, 160 K, 1.31 WHIP, 4.46 ERA Going into his Age 32 season next year, I would gladly take what he did two years ago. Only Diamond outperformed that last year for the Twins. He's only three years removed from a season in which he finished 10th in the CYA voting. As for moving to the bullpen, I found this quote from a FanGraphs article: "Long term, it will be more important for the Astros to sort out their starting rotation than their bullpen. In a strange twist, that’s why it makes sense to move a present-tense resource in Myers to the bullpen — because doing so will help them figure out what they have among their bevy of mediocre pitching prospects. If one of them steps to the fore and proves he’s a Major League starter this year, the team will have gotten what they wanted from moving Myers to the pen."
  22. Physics Guy
    Because his .283 BA the past three years in the minors and .265 in the majors clearly indicate that.
  23. Physics Guy
    I'm fine with Myers, maybe at 2 years and no more than 9M. I could see one other pitcher (hoping Sanchez, expecting Marcum or Blanton) from the FA market and possibly a trade (Span or Willingham) for the third SP. Rotation would be Marcum, Myers, Diamond, Hendriks and player acquired for OF. Gibson starts in bullpen, much like the Braves did with Medlen. Sad part is I think it could end up being: Blanton, Myers, Diamond, Hendricks and Deduno. I REALLY hope Ryan has something up his sleeve.
  24. Physics Guy
    I am thankful that hope springs eternal. Even after two abysmal years I can't wait for the next season. If I made it supporting the Twins as I grew up in the 70's and early 80's I can make it through this. I am thankful for the large number of good prospects in the low minors that give me hope for something special in a few years. I am thankful that Terry Ryan is back at the helm.
  25. Physics Guy
    With said injury history, do you really think anybody is offering him more than $2M a season? He's a stab in the dark like Marquis was last year, but I'd rather see them go after a guy like him. At least he has some upside.
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