Otto von Ballpark

Definitely not saying the same thing. Just looked at 2012 Steamer -- Twins starters were projected at 4.58 ERA that year. Actual ERA: 5.40. Steamer is more or less worthless for this exercise. It might be more illuminating to look at a projection system like ZIPS, which offers projections at varying confidence intervals. I'd guess the Twins had virtually no chance of significant improvement simply due to the almost complete lack of upside. The most charitable thing you could say is that in 2013 they were unlikely to be any worse than 2012, simply because they were already pushing the limits of statistical badness in 2012. However, them being almost exactly as bad was not an unlikely outcome -- in fact, given the thorough lack of upside throughout the entire starting staff, the low innings projections for even the top starters, and a nearly identical supporting cast of AAA fill-ins, I'd say that repeating the 2012 performance was probably the most likely outcome.

TR's largest contract was Johan's first deal at 4/39.75. He also signed Mauer at 4/33, Hunter at 4/32, and Radke at 4/36. The fact that the Radke deal, for a near-FA at the time, is nearly identical to the other contracts (which were all for first or second year arbitration players), suggests that might be the upper bound of TR's contract range -- 4 years at around $10 million annually. And that's for players already with the organization and not on the open market. Largest outside free agent contracts are, of course, 3/21 (position player) and 2/10 (pitcher) (and both of those players apparently "left money on the table", told to us by TR or the player's agent to apparently assure everybody that those players were indeed better than the modest contract they signed).

The report at the time was actually 4/80. But that wasn't reported until after Terry Ryan had stepped down, and trade negotiations were already reported to be underway. So not only was it likely Bill Smith's offer, it may have represented Bill Smith's best offer. We all know that Mauer's extension came under Bill Smith, but interestingly, so did Morneau's -- just after the Santana trade, in fact. (Nathan's and Cuddyer's extensions came at the same time too.) I wouldn't have been surprised that, if Santana had accepted the Twins offer, these other players could have been dealt instead to "balance" the payroll.

I looked up Steamer for 2013: http://steamerprojections.com/blog/downloads/ Steamer projected EVERY Twins starter (start percentage greater than zero, including Walters, Hernandez, etc.) to have an ERA between 4.30 and 4.92, with the exception of Esmerling Vazquez, whom it projected to have a whopping 5.11 ERA. I hope the Twins were using more than simple regression to the mean to evaluate their starting pitchers. You dismiss Humber and Slowey, but Steamer gave them virtually identical projections to those it gave the top Twins starters (including GS, IP, ERA, and "reliability"). In fact, running some quick totals on that spreadsheet, Steamer projected the AL team starter ERAs to range from 3.78 to 4.61 (this is calculated on projected IP, so it doesn't include marginal guys like Esmerling Vazquez). Actual range last year? 3.44 to 5.26. Guess who was projected to finish last at 4.61? The Twins. Guess who actually finished last at 5.26? The Twins.

I just meant Fielder is signed thru 2020, Mauer 2018. If they were both FA, I'd probably like Mauer for 5 years more than Fielder for 7.

The first of those seasons is barely a decline, certainly well within normal variation. He was switching teams/parks/leagues too. Last year is definitely a big dip -- worse year since his rookie season. I wouldn't want to take a chance on him until that was cleared up... of course, if he starts hitting better, his team wouldn't want to trade him.

Once again, the Chief so effortlessly expresses, in one line, what countless others have felt in their rambling and redundant threads and posts.

Fielder is worth a thought, especially if the Tigers kicked in cash -- so far his decline is mainly just one season, and the Twins DH spot is perpetually open. But given his contract runs even longer than Mauer's, the answer is pretty clear. (And that's without getting into questions of marketing, where Mauer obviously has more value to this club.)

Mr. Crikket, you make good points. And to my credit, I haven't started these threads, just participated in them. That said, the "Johnson/Swarzak/Duensing are in the mix" news is what triggered this, more than the early slow crawl of the free agent market. Those guys represent the pit of SP mediocrity that TR should be trying to avoid, not discussing in November...

I'd say the better analogy would be telling Joe Webb that he's going to come to camp as a quarterback next year. It doesn't hurt to give him that chance in practice and exhibition games, I suppose, but it sort of communicates your plan and expectations for that position.

How is this for a prediction: no more than one healthy MLB free agent starter signed. I'll even throw Pelfrey in that category, if it helps clarify. If you pitched less than (or less effectively than) Pelfrey in 2013, you count as filler.

Don't sell yourself short -- Deduno had a 92 ERA+ in 2012, same as Pelfrey's career mark and better than Correia's (as a starter). The Twins had five recently successful Major League starters! That kind of distinction is almost meaningless. Did Philip Humber count as a "recently successful Major League starter" for the Astros? Erik Bedard? Did Kevin Slowey for the Marlins? TR built his rotation with low-upside guys with very shaky track records of health and effectiveness -- and he still had one clear opening for a AAA guy to begin the season! Sorry for the rants, but wow has this been a bad two season run of starting pitching, not just performance but also low expectations.

Short version: any rotation plan that includes the words "Hendricks-Deduno battle" is by definition one that is counting on AAA suspects. Long version: Correia, three guys coming off some form of elbow surgery, and ???. That was the rotation plan going into 2013. And before you tell me about expectations for the three surgery guys, note that by far the most experienced one had a career ERA+ of 92, in the NL, missed the previous season almost completely, and was aggressively pushing his rehab timeline. The next most experienced one was coming off a career high in IP (133), a 96 ERA+, a season shut down in August, and was just traded -- with a recent Top 100 prospect! -- for Ben Revere. The least-experienced one was the only one who was either above-average OR pitched a full season in 2012, and we all know his fluke credentials from that year (4.6 K/9). Then there's Correia, the so-called "innings eater" who had averaged 167 IP and an ERA+ of 83 since becoming a full-time starter. And mind you, even with Correia and these three surgery guys INKED into the rotation, there was still a wide-open spot for AAA flotsam and jetsam from day one, before any injuries or ineffectiveness could even take place. (Indeed, four such "extra" guys had already started games for the Twins before the end of May, with the only DL stint being Diamond missing the first two weeks as expected.) Prospect reinforcements? Top one also coming off TJ surgery, only other two even remotely possible were both ticketed for AA. THAT is counting on a lot of suspects. (A similar argument could be made about the 2012 rotation too -- only one good starter among that group and he was teetering on the brink of TJ surgery.) Mind you, these guys individually were not necessarily bad acquisitions. But together they do not make a competent rotation, and TR has very clearly counted on some marginal starting pitchers for regular roles in his rotation planning the past two seasons.

Pretty sure Gibson's value is pretty low at this point. He's 26 years old, looked like a 7-8 K/9 control pitcher in the minors, and has yet to even translate those peripherals to MLB, much less any success. We can afford to give him some leeway due to the surgery and dead arm, but other teams wouldn't in trade. Zimmermann is only 17 months older than Gibson. Porcello is 14 months YOUNGER than Gibson. Good point though on these guys not necessarily lasting until free agency, though. I am very hesitant when folks suggest waiting for next year to go all-out for Bailey (or whomever). However, I'm not sure the best alternative is to trade for them. May be better to approach FA a bit more like the draft -- identify guys you really like every year and make serious efforts to sign them. You won't get them all, you will get skunked some years, but you will get some every so often. It won't break the bank, you won't get stuck needing to go after trades or less desirable free agents, and you won't be forced to seriously overbid much either. Pretty sure if the Twins operated like that, and bid competitively, there wouldn't be any serious issues about getting free agents to come to Minnesota.

But you also know that Jordan Zimmermann is one guy. You're not one guy away from competing. (Actually not true: if we lost one guy -- Mauer -- we might be able to compete with Miami and Houston. ) And what's your best bet to add multiple quality players? Prospect depth. Zimmermann's also one guy you'd only control for 2 more years. Not an excuse to not improve the team, but realistically the Twins aren't 2 years away from anything either. The four prospects you give up to get him likely won't all pan out, but obviously if two of them do, that's multiple spots covered where Zimmermann was just one. And even if only one of your prospects succeeds, that guy's 6 years of cheap production could exceed Zimmermann's 2 not-so-cheap years. (Think about it: if Arcia or Rosario has an MLB breakout next year, not only do we still control them for 5+ more seasons, we can probably buy out their arb/early FA relatively cheaply too, but that ship has already sailed with Zimmermann.)

To me, the important distinction is between reporting actual contact with the player/agent, or just media speculation a team might pursue the player. Last November, it was reported that the Twins contacted a number of players/agents similar to this November. Similarly they were in contact with Edwin Jackson the previous offseason (reported by national sources, I know). Is it different this offseason? Maybe slightly, as a matter of degree. Very hard to tell.

Fact: the same was said last offseason, yet TR counted on all of those guys. Arguably the same thing was said before 2012, yet TR counted on mostly the same group. Are the circumstances slightly different this year? Yes, but mainly just the year. The burden of proof is definitely on TR to show something different this offseason. (Not that I endorse starting a new thread daily to note his lack of progress so far )

Is this true? A quick Google yielded this: November 2012: "So far, the Twins have reached out to free agents Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, and Brett Myers." http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/twins-rumors-mccarthy-blanton-dempster-myers.html Obviously not all good names, but: Sanchez > Nolasco Dempster == Arroyo Edwin Jackson was also rumored the past two offseasons.

I'm sure Baseball America and other sites will do nice Rule 5 draft previews, usually closer to the date of the draft, and they will get linked here. As you mention, the list of potential picks is quite voluminous.

I doubt the Twins get a significant discount on any extension over what they'd have to pay a comparable FA anyway. And flipping the player during his walk season is less valuable now that they won't return a comp pick for the acquiring team. I think prospects can absolutely be used as trade chips. Doesn't mean a 5-for-1 blockbuster trade is a good idea when your MLB roster is so barren. I like the targeted 1-for-1 or 2-for-1 deals for more modest returns. Bill Smith was pretty good at this (Capps deal excepted) -- Pavano, Cabrera, Rausch, Fuentes. TR did it with Luis Castillo, arguably with Shannon Stewart, could have been more aggressive in other seasons.

I'm not sure the Twins have enough depth anywhere to make a deal. I mean, even if you can deal a collection of non-Buxton, non-Sano prospects, the Twins still have a lot of holes to fill, all over the diamond. You'd still need to make multiple significant free agent moves to get close to contention. And if that's the case, why not just make an extra free agent move in lieu of such a trade? Overpay for Ervin Santana if you must, but keep Arcia/Rosario/Berrios/Kepler and hope that one or two of them can be quality cheap contributors during Santana's contract. Or just wait a year or two to make that extra free agent move (when these trade target pitchers could hit free agency). I'm fine with that, as long as they are making moves in the interim and not just waiting forever.

I'd generally agree, but he isn't even 30 years old yet (turns 30 in January). Not saying it's likely, but if he somehow managed to reproduce his 2009 or 2010 season next year, I think that would go a long way towards "proving" himself healthy again (if such a thing can ever be proved in one year) and making him a premier free agent next winter. Plus, if his next contract will likely top out at 3 years, that would be even more incentive for a team to sign him for one year now. Potentially getting a head start or small discount on negotiating a less-risky 3 year extension is more valuable than getting the same for a more-risky 4-5 year extension, no?

To be fair, TR did also say that Duensing is "a possibility" to start in 2014, but "it’s not probable for me." Still not even sure why they would consider it at this point -- they absolutely don't need more starters like that. Without Swarzak and Duensing, they've already got 8 guys on the 40-man roster who, at best, should all be competing for the 5th starter spot, or otherwise in the pen/AAA. "We've got to try something" was a disappointing quote. In the sense that we've cycled through AAA pitchers and relievers, we've been trying things for the last two seasons.

Twins do prefer health, but last year they broke from that to get Pelfrey and Worley. I think it's pretty clear the Twins stronger preference so far is "cheap". I think most any GM in the game, with $30+ million to spend and 3 wide-open rotation spots, wouldn't mind a $10 million, one-year gamble on a 30 year old pitcher with legit ace upside who can pass a physical. Even if you never trust that pitcher's health enough to offer him another cent, that's a reasonable price for a potential deadline asset or extra comp pick.

John, I don't think this thread is a reaction to a couple free agent pitchers signing elsewhere. It's a reaction to TR announcing 2 modest relievers and a marginal AAA starter have been added to the rotation mix. Twins 40-man roster now has the following 12 starting pitchers: Albers Correia Darnell Deduno Diamond Duensing Gibson Hendriks Johnson May Swarzak Worley Correia and Gibson should have spots, and most observers are in agreement that the Twins need to add two legit arms from outside. That leaves... 10 guys on the 40-man roster competing for the 5th starter spot, or headed to the pen/Rochester? That doesn't seem right at all. I think the Twins -- just like they did in 2012 and 2013 -- are counting on these guys WAY more than they should. (As much as they did in 2012 and 2013, which turned out quite poorly.)