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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, from the article: Indeed, Mauer's BABIP was a career high last year (and 2012 was his second-highest ever at the time, tied with his batting title season of 2006). So he's almost certainly due for some regression even before age is factored in.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    By OPS+, his 2007 was slightly worse, and his first full season in 2005 was worse. Steamer and Oliver basically say the same thing too. Not a big deal -- with an age penalty and regression to the mean, that's not a surprising projection for a 31 year old, but plenty of guys outperform those projections too. It's one of the limitation of baseball projection -- to accurately capture the overall trends, you've got to miss on a fair number of guys.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Mauer's projection means much of anything, except that 31 year olds as a group are likely to decline. I added links to Steamer and Oliver projections -- they all project a drop in his offense (and a sub-.300 average), although not as much as ZiPS. Will be interesting to see if a fuller ZiPS projection is released -- I think in past years, they offered some "confidence intervals" on players, right? So Mauer's mean projection may have been .292, but he was actually still a pretty fair bet to hit his usual .320. The more interesting thing might be the pitching. ZiPS projects Nolasco and Meyer to be average starters, but everyone else is significantly below. ZiPS doesn't like Hughes all that much, or Correia (or Pelfrey). Definitely the most pessimistic of the 3 (although Steamer and Oliver don't currently project any non-40-man guys, so no Meyer, Sano, etc.).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    They definitely are forecasting a drop for Mauer -- a 121 OPS+, down from 144 last year. I know ZiPS doesn't directly deal with injuries, but I wonder if it dings his projected performance due to his drop in playing time last year? The projection isn't out of line if you assume he's going to have a little rust, at best. He's had seasons at this level or worse before.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. He'd bat .227 and have a K rate of 35%, though.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    They simply list guys with their previous team if a new team hasn't signed them yet. Pelfrey is listed on the Twins too, for that reason. It's not any error or oversight, and it's probably the best way to handle it (as opposed to omitting them, tracking where every Ray Olmedo guy ends up, and constantly editing and updating the pages accordingly). It's not a playing time projector, so a guy's projection can fairly easily be transferred between teams (accounting for ballpark and league, of course).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Just posted this morning at Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/ They also appear to have early Steamer and Oliver projections up too, if you want to compare. Steamer batting: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=8&players=0 Steamer pitching: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=8&players=0 Oliver batting: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=oliver&team=8&players=0 Oliver pitching: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=oliver&team=8&players=0
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Trying to keep up with the Tigers' new Castellanos (Nick, no relation)? If we're ready to cut bait on or trade any of our corner OF/1B/DH types (Parmelee, Colabello, Willingham, Doumit if he's not slated to catch much, Plouffe if he's not expected to stick at 3B much longer), this Castellanos might be worth a look. But this isn't necessarily a rare opportunity -- fringe corner guys like this are regularly available if you have a 40-man roster spot for them. Parmelee and Colabello might join that group if we sign another FA or if they don't make the squad of out spring training.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, take a look at the hypothetical trade from the other team's perspective. If you're the Phillies, do you deal Hamels for Sano, straight up? If that's even close to "yes" then the Twins probably shouldn't take that deal. Regardless of where the Twins are at in their "success cycle", they should spend their cash before dealing prospects. They still basically need improved players at ALL positions, not just ace, not just 3B.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Atherton averaged only 8.5 K/9 as a starter last year, and 11.1 as a reliever.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock: agreed. I meant, many posts read like they wouldn't want the TWINS to make that deal, which is kinda crazy.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Just curious: Mauer makes $23M per season, and Nolasco $12M. Are you projecting David Price to make $35M per season? Seems a wee bit high, considering the current high is $27.5M, right? And 2014-2015 are both still arb years for Price, so he'll probably only average $15M between them.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, I don't think it's "rushing" anything to get Lee or Hamels for pennies on the dollar. That's just not a likely outcome.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm never quite comfortable with cherry-picking projections like this. Even though you say you are being "conservative", are you projecting anyone to be worse in 2014 than they were in 2013? I see a lot of improvement projected, and some holding the line by already solid performers -- but how realistic is that? I assume you are using the Steamer projections at Fangraphs? If so, I just totaled them for the 2014 Twins, and it comes to 28 WAR, or roughly 76 team wins. That's just the 40-man roster, so no Meyer or Sano, but they are otherwise projecting some fair optimism. That seems much more likely than your 83-85 preliminary estimate, which might be the "best case" outcome IMHO.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Are people actually suggesting they wouldn't trade Meyer for Price, straight up? That's how a lot of these posts are reading. I'm as excited about Meyer as anyone, but don't forget he was traded straight up for Denard Span last winter. Good trade for the Twins, but it keeps Meyers value in perspective a little. I'm pretty sure Tampa Bay would flat-out refuse an offer of Meyer for Price, which should be an indicator that the Twins would easily win the trade. Even if the Twins didn't extend Price and didn't compete in 2014 or 2015, they could almost certainly flip Price again for more value than Meyer alone currently has. Obviously, if we re-enter the realm of reality and the offer becomes Meyer, Arcia, Rosario, etc. for Price, then the calculus becomes different. But then its less about Meyer vs Price, and more about org prospects 3-7 vs Price. That trade probably doesn't help the Twins, particularly if those prospects are anywhere close to MLB.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    450 IP spread over 5 seasons isn't that reliable of a sample for a SP.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Unfortunately Anderson has not provided much more to judge him on recently, or ever, really.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It may not be a dislike of strikeouts per se, but TR gave Joe Mays a big contract despite some fairly alarming K rate drops. He also counted on Diamond pretty heavily after 2012, probably passing on some FA because of him, although I understand we were desperate by that point. And other factors were at play, but Smith traded their best homegrown K guy in a while (Garza) and essentially replaced him in the rotation with Blackburn, who he also later extended Joe Mays style. It was certainly a good play to nab Lohse and Silva fairly cheaply, but it does seem the Twins were a bit too eager at times to commit to low-K guys at the MLB level.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    They may not have talked, but I have it from a good source that TR and Hughes texted, tweeted, IM'ed, and used Snapchat prior to the signing.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Rauch was actually 1.5 seasons. And Pavano accepted arbitration so he was effectively 1.5 seasons, then re-signed reasonably beyond that too. Agreed it won't bring back stars or anything, but I think this is a good way to plug holes in the roster, obviously more useful on a contending team but not a bad idea to pursue all the time. Curious to see if TR can make this kind of move now.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Off the top of my head, that's exactly how the Twins acquired Pavano and Rauch.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I don't know who'd you sign anymore either. Didn't like Salty or most position players, and we've already got two SP. I guess I'd try to stay in the mix for the remaining pitchers, in case the market doesn't quite explode for them. Maybe I am just searching for the comfort of a non-xFIP-based pitching acquisition.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Ryan never trades any prospects, ever. He could probably stand to take a few more risks in that regard -- Bill Smith actually made some good low-risk type moves with low-level prospects, filling in the MLB roster well. (Of course, don't let Bill Smith anywhere near your higher-level prospects!)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, they are dissimilar pitchers (Anderson is a control guy, Harden a K guy), but they have had somewhat similar effectiveness. Anderson was a career 118 ERA+ guy until 2013, when crazy BABIP and HR/FB dragged him down in his limited innings. And he is left-handed, which can be a bonus. Also, Anderson has already had his major surgery, while Harden always seemed on the precipice of it. I prefer vintage Harden to Anderson too (kinda wish the Twins had been able to swing a deal for him back in the day). But that doesn't mean the A's demands will drop THAT significantly from three B prospects (2 in MLB already, one performing well) and a useful cheap major leaguer. If it's spare parts and maybe one B prospect, the A's will just hold onto him and try to showcase him one last time.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, any reason the Nolasco/Hughes official announcements couldn't have been delayed further? Like, until after the meetings and Rule 5 draft? Even if it's a minor advantage, might have been nice to keep a little extra roster flexibility through those, then re-assess.
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