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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Good observation! From Atlanta's perspective, this is a kind of trade TR could stand to make more often. Although we haven't had a surplus as Atlanta currently does on the pitching side.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Does Adam Johnson count?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Options are noted on Jeremy's excellent page: http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2291-Minnesota-Twins-Roster-Payroll-2014 Looks like Deduno, Diamond, and Worley are out. Pretty sure one of those three will get the nod initially.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, they just set Alexi Casilla loose last month, so they had an opening for another ex-Twin.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    So, any thoughts on if Deduno H/9 rate is sustainable, given his BB/9 and K/9 rates last year? Among qualifiers, his SO/BB ratio would have been second to last in MLB -- only Jeff Locke of Pittsburgh was lower, and I think his season was pretty flukey too (and at least his raw K/9 rate was higher).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Those projections aren't looking at his 2013 splits. They may not directly factor in the injury either, except noting his lack of 2012 innings. The fact that his 2013 results are a pretty good match for his 2009 and 2011 results (as well as 2006-2007) probably doesn't help either. And it's one reason I am still skeptical of him.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Whoa, missed that at Baseball Reference. There just wasn't a line for 2008 so I didn't notice the missed season! Very cool that Baseball Prospectus has the detailed injury info, even for minor leaguers!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I have no doubt there will be innings available for Meyer in 2014, but I don't think he gets many of them. Remember, he has yet to pitch in AAA, so he's probably a lock for a half season there at least, and he might be on a bit of an innings limit still from the shoulder issues this year (only threw 78 innings plus AFL time in 2013).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, although now I don't think Meyer has a chance until 2015, really. We already knew he had virtually zero chance of breaking camp in 2014 with the big club, but with four vets under contract and plenty of scraps for the fifth spot, I think Meyer will be seeing plenty of AAA action before being promoted. But yeah, going into the last two years, you had to squint past injury and ineffectiveness just to project 5 starters. Even if the upside is low, it's good to have real depth for once.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Although, Hughes and Pelfrey are both coming off ~5 IP/start averages, which is less than the the Twins overall average last year. Even in his "peak months" last year, Pelfrey was under 6 IP/start. 6 IP/start seems like the top end for these four guys, which is what it would take to throw just 100 more IP than last year's starters. And that's when they are all pitching well. If any one of them has an off year, they likely will fall short of that level of IP improvement.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Anybody know this? Looking at pre-2012 numbers, it appears Deduno's 2010 was affected by injury. Otherwise, he appeared healthy if not particularly durable (although it's hard to judge by minor league numbers -- shorter seasons, generally reduced workloads).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, based solely on past MLB performance, Pelfrey might have the highest "ceiling" of our 4 veteran starters now under contract. His 113 and 107 full season ERA+ numbers are better than anything the other three have ever posted as starters, save for Nolasco's 2008. Of course, as mentioned by another poster, Pelfrey is also the one guy in the group who's had recent major surgery. And even when healthy, Pelfrey was alternating those seasons with ~80 ERA+ seasons. In fact, all four of the Twins veteran starters have a history of mixing multiple ~80 ERA+ seasons in with their more league-average seasons (95-100 ERA+). I guess if they all stay healthy and don't have their "bad" years at the same time, they should still average out to a 90 ERA+, which would represent almost a full run shaved off last year's starter ERA (roughly a 75 ERA+, I think).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with the posters above that say the Twins are in no danger of "blocking" anybody, and if by good fortune we wind up with 6+ quality MLB starters, that will be a blessing, not a problem. That said, I still suspect the Twins didn't go far enough in the pitching department. They now have 4 healthy veterans in the rotation, which is an upgrade over the last two years for sure, but they all fit the same profile: alternating ERA+ seasons between 80 and 100, topping out at 6 IP/start and occasionally bottoming out near 5 IP/start. That's four guys waffling between #3 starter and #5 starter -- split the difference, and it probably averages out to four #4 starters. It will be interesting to see what Garza gets -- his performance downside has basically been #3 starter, the upside of the Twins' four guys. Otherwise he's been a very solid and consistent #2, I'd say, around 110 ERA+ and averaging over 6 IP/start.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I really don't care much about Arencibia, but Butera's "comparable" OPS+ in 2012 was almost entirely due to 9 BB in 122 PA, about double his career MLB rate and even higher than his career AAA rate.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think I've read any "cast Deduno aside" sentiment here -- some are skeptical, some want to stash him on the 60 day DL to start the year, but I don't think anyone has advocated he be DFA'ed or any such thing. That said, add me to the skeptic camp. The career low walk rate was awesome... the career low K rate, not so much. I've got no problem with making him the #5 starter if he's healthy, but if he winds up being your #2 starter performance-wise, you might have problems.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Hernandez is already gone, my friend. And indeed not missed.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    While Pelfrey's surgery and recovery does seem like it logically impacted his 2013 performance, he has also posted multiple similar seasons with the Mets. They may just be part of the package with him. Hopefully he can still pull out another league average season.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That sounds right. If you believe Mauer's hitting rate stats will notably improve simply by virtue of moving from C to 1B, then yeah, ZiPS isn't going to help you.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Posted on the Pelfrey thread too, but I suspect the Twins might be "in" on Arroyo now much like the Reds are -- that is, they will take him on their terms (short-term, reasonable salary, as an "insurance" starter).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I braced myself for Pelfrey being the biggest Twins FA acquisition of the offseason, so getting Nolasco & Hughes in addition to him should be fairly encouraging. But I'm still a bit discouraged overall that these guys all seem to be in a similar group -- their upside seems to top out around league average, and Hughes & Pelfrey are both coming off replacement-level performances where they only averaged 5 IP per start. As much as TR surprised us by finally opening up the checkbook, he still targeted the same kind of guys: generally cheap, lower interest, healthy but lower upside. Hope he found a diamond or two in the rough (although Nolasco's salary moves him out of the "rough" I'd say).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    My guess is that while we're still technically interested in Arroyo, we might be in the same boat as the Reds, offering a one year type deal. And does Arroyo want to be on a team with 5 other likely starters?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    They do have him listed at 1B, so presumably if there is any different positional aging curve, Mauer is on the proper one now.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't look now, but Kevin Slowey is hot on the heels of both Nolasco and Hughes in career ERA+. And the equal of Pelfrey. (Actually, he's almost certainly the equal of Hughes too if you exclude Hughes' time in the bullpen.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not really 4 spots. It's more accurately 5-6 MLB spots (including backups) and another 5-6 spots at AAA. Plenty of room for all of these guys.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Not much to complain about on any minor league deal. Curious if Kubel thinks he's cooked like Jacque Jones, or if the Twins think their corner OF/DH options might not pan out...
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