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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    You're probably right about Fryer, but his 2012 AAA is kind of a crazy outlier. .504 OPS? His other two AAA seasons (admittedly small samples, all) are .647 and .704, which are both better than Suzuki's .615 overall for the last two seasons. Gotta wonder if there was an injury at work in 2012 -- I get that Fryer was an older non-prospect, but every other season he's been good for at least a few walks, a few HR, and some steals. 2012, nothing. FWIW, the 2014 projections at Fangraphs are pretty close between Fryer and Suzuki. Obviously, Suzuki offers a lot more confidence that he can hit those projections, and Fryer has a lot more Butera-esque downside possibility. I had just adopted Fryer as my new favorite Twin, so I should probably recuse myself from this discussion...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I was responding to this quote of yours: I guess I am not really sure what you meant there. Obviously Cano is staying at 2B, and that means Franklin (their current 2B) is directly affected. MLBTR calls him an "obvious trade candidate". And while he's not likely a future MLB SS, Franklin could probably play there for a couple years. He was predominately a SS in the minors as recently as April/May 2013. He probably would have auditioned at SS for Seattle last year, if not for the rapid ascent of Miller.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. He was traded from OAK-WAS, then back from WAS-OAK. And those two teams have been trading with each other like gangbusters in recent years. They were also both August waiver trade salary dumps for what looks like minor league filler.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Twins liked Franklin's MLB future a lot better than Hicks' (I have no idea if I believe that, much less if the Twins do), I'd do the trade and worry about the positions later. Even if neither is a long-term SS, Franklin or Dozier could play there in 2014. Contenders have to worry about fielding a full, optimized defensive lineup. The Twins can afford to be creative right now to get talent into the organization.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    The last two years, Suzuki has been basically the equivalent of Jose Molina with the bat. (With his modest ability to take a walk, Fryer might be in that range too.) Molina signed for 2 years at a lower AAV (2/4.5). Will be interesting to see how their defense/framing compares.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Should have waited a few more minutes for your "final" catcher projection.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    In your opinion then, Hicks is the only MLB-ready Twins outfielder above A-ball right now? Seems a little extreme, and quite in the minority. Like it or not, our corner OF spots are pretty much set in 2014 and they have little to do with Hicks. Regardless of whether he can play SS, Franklin could very well have a better MLB future than Hicks. (Probably why Seattle would decline such an offer too.) That's probably a more important consideration for the Twins right now than trying to fill specific holes -- face it, the Twins are going to have holes next season no matter what. Heck, one of them might be Hicks in CF.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    MLBTR reports the Twins have signed Kurt Suzuki, for 1 year at $2.75 million plus incentives: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/twins-to-sign-kurt-suzuki.html So that will mean another 40-man roster move....
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting guy. Through age 23 (up until his surgery), his performance was not unlike Alex Meyer -- actually probably better (lower BB rates, higher K rates), and left-handed. It looks like he was first optioned in 2011 (for one minor league playoff start? seems a waste!), but he was on the DL for all of 2012 so I don't think he was optioned that year, just 2013. That suggests he might have his third option year remaining? If so, I'd definitely grab him -- he looks worthy of a spot on the 40-man to see if he can progress in his second year back from surgery. Also, if he hits waivers, every NL team would get a crack at him before the Twins. So they pretty much have to trade for him, if they want him. Would be interesting to see what he could fetch.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I mentioned it! It's definitely on my personal list, and I might argue that it is the best way to mark the beginning of the Twins 21st century renaissance (which sadly did not feature many good playoff moments, particularly at the Dome).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Also of note: Kubel's walk-off slam against the Red Sox in June 2006. Or the following game, a Twins win that also featured the bat boy tackling a runaway fan on the field.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    In a way, I think this may have happened to Bill Smith. Obviously, he was an insider, but he was not a scout, so I think he basically delegated a lot of GM duties/decisions (I would be curious how much of that delegation was by choice, and how much may have been forced on him). In particular, Gardy's fingerprints are all over those 2008-2011 teams. I worry that Antony may eventually suffer a similar fate, although hopefully he and the organization learned from the Smith fiasco. As frustrating/conservative as TR can be, it's pretty awesome that he doesn't often make the "obvious" moves. (Except, of course, when the obvious move is adding a better pitcher the previous couple offseasons... ) I love it now when Gardy complains about his team or roster -- in a way, it means the GM finally is doing his job again!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm pretty sure we have LF/RF/DH covered without any need for Hicks. Not trying to read too much into his rookie season, but Hicks looks like a CF or bust type of player -- not much potential value in the corners.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Franklin played 2B last year. (Unless you mean Miller, who played SS.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. They had similar prospect rankings pre-2013, but Franklin is 1.5 years younger and posted a 96 rookie OPS+, compared to Hicks' 65. Don't about much about Franklin's SS defense, but his cumulative 2013 TZ and DRS figures at 2B were comparable to Dozier. Actually, his 2013 season overall is pretty comparable to Dozier's, when accounting for playing time.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Mostly agreed on Valencia, although his 2013 AAA numbers also show a big power spike. As bad as he was in 2011, if he could add just 40 points of SLG to that otherwise terrible line, he'd be around a 100 OPS+ hitter -- and that's not taking into account a platoon deployment. Not saying I'd give up anything of value for him now, particularly if his defense is still poorly regarded, he's looking like a platoon DH vs LHP. Will be interesting to see if David Lough proves to be of value (solid year last year, but repeated AAA for 3 seasons and has some OBP issues).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the "serious" contraction talk was after the 2001 season, so it would have been the 2002 home opener, correct? http://www.infoplease.com/spot/contractiontimeline1.html I don't think that contraction was ever that serious, though. I attended those home openers and I don't recall anything special in the air (cue "no smoking in the Metrodome"). Since I was in elementary school for 87 and 91, I'd probably not represent them as much as you, but those are by far the two best years of Metrodome moments. The 2001 Yankees/Knoblauch game would probably sneak on my personal list -- for the first time since I was a kid, the Twins felt seriously relevant again.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Or better yet, start a thread on him in the Adopt-a-Mascot forum. Also, start the Adopt-a-Mascot forum.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I will shed tears over the building. If you sat in the right spot, it was a fine place to watch a night game. (Day games from seats facing straight into left field, not so much.) And the prices! Oh, what great prices they were... Not much to disagree with in the list, if you are looking for the most significant moments rather than trivia-type moments (i.e. Dave Kingman, or when the AC went out, or when there was no AC). I don't think much of the 3,000th hits or no-hitters -- maybe subbing the final game of the 2006 season for one of those would be appropriate. The game itself wasn't that meaningful, but the way the fans stuck around afterward to watch Detroit lose on the Jumbotron was pretty cool. Johan's record 17 K game was a good one. I loved the July 2006 win over Jeremy Bonderman too -- almost selling out a 3 game series at the Dome in July, for a then-third-place Twins club, was pretty amazing. Maybe 2002 ALDS Game 4 should get more love? It was a potential elimination game for us. Also, 2002 ALCS Game 1 would be a lot better remembered if the series hadn't gone so poorly after it (same for the August 2005 game where Jones' HR ended Freddy Garcia's perfect game in the 8th -- that win ultimately did not prove to be much help in the standings!).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Some of the numbers do seem pretty crazy, don't they? The trends seem accurate, though (same guys ranking top and bottom each year, even when changing teams/leagues). The Rays definitely seem to be buying on the idea -- maybe not necessarily at the full published figures, but they have targeted and retained two of the top pitch framers. The Braves have two other catchers, apparently, so it's likely they agree with the consensus on Doumit's catching. It's a shame, because it would have been another interesting data point to see Doumit catching a quality pitching staff (although Pittsburgh's 2011 staff wasn't that bad... but Doumit was injured for a full two months of that season, and had the worst cERA on their team. Hmmmm....).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that report was erroneous. The source was actually just a poster who said he heard Howard Sinker mention it on the radio. (Maybe Sinker was speculating, or the listener misheard a reference to Mauer as a reference to Doumit.) In fact, Parker confirmed just the opposite with Doumit's agent. He still wants to catch.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I would guess that it would be harder to attract a potential DH here now, if you are talking free agency. We could make a trade for one, but with Kubel and Willingham already in the fold, plus the Twins general preference of rotating players through the DH spot, it seems unlikely.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Surprised no one has mentioned Antony's April 2010 interview with ESPN, where he did not know what FIP or BABIP stood for. I think that's about the only reference I hear about Antony around these parts... I don't hold that interview against him, but hopefully the baseball analytics department he now oversees has him up to speed a little more.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No way. Levi Michael is almost certainly pegged to wear a Rock Cat costume next year, at best.
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