Otto von Ballpark

Sure, Hunter skewed it a bit. But no matter how you slice it, they are relatively close. Some folks here are painting the Tigers like they are the Yankees in terms of age (who have normally averaged 31-32 on offense). The Tigers are actually pretty much league average, they only have a handful of over 30 guys, and they don't have any super-old guys other than Victor Martinez who will be 37.

Cabrera missed time last year, so he could regress performance-wise and still provide just as much value. Also, Cabrera, Kinsler, and Victor Martinez are all of their 30+ year olds on offense. JD Martinez would be the next oldest at 28, then they have 26, 25, 24, etc. On the pitching side, Verlander will be 33 and Sanchez 32, but Zimmermann will only be 30 and they have some younger starters too like Norris. They're not THAT old. According to B-Ref, their 2015 offense average age was equal to the Twins, and their pitcher average age was actually younger than the Twins.

No. Nolasco can refuse a minor league assignment, but he doesn't have to elect free agency. He could elect to just stay on the roster until we trade or release him, and he would keep his full contract. Think it through logically: if what you are suggesting was true, there would be a ton of highly-paid underperforming veterans in AAA, because such players would essentially have no choice but to accept the assignment to get paid. Obviously it doesn't work like that, the money is guaranteed and teams have very little leverage to get out from under it. Players in this position invariably get released or traded in a salary dump, but they always collect their full check regardless of their willingness to go to the minors.

I think you are overestimating how many of their old guys need to magically rebound in 2016. Victor Martinez and Anibal Sanchez are basically it. Even Verlander settled into a pretty decent groove last year, well below his peak but still very good. Not saying they will take the division again, but with the additions they made, I am pretty comfortable saying their 2015 record is probably their floor for 2016.

I wonder why the BA guys don't just make the list themselves? I mean, I like Berardino, but he's an MLB beat writer. I get that whoever ultimately compiles the list will not have done all the scouting, but given the requirements of Berardino's main job, it seems like he would have personally done even less scouting than other prospect hounds. Does Berardino have to conform his list to the BA Top 100 too?

I think it is unlikely that Berrios would exceed a 190 IP limit in his rookie season. Last year, May was only on pace for ~167 IP when they moved him to the pen. Berrios would have to pitch like Liriano circa 2006 to be likely to exceed 190 IP this year.

Their playoff odds pages still seem to have the 2015 data, get it while you can! http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=&date=pre Here's their preseason 2015 AL Central projection: Team W L Indians 85.6 76.4 Tigers 85.1 76.9 Royals 78.7 83.3 White Sox 77.8 84.2 Twins 73.9 88.1 Here is another link that is more or less the same as the above, but includes the first day of the season in the URL, which might make the link more permanent? http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=&date=2015-04-05 You can still see 2014 that way too: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=&date=2014-04-05

I wasn't pushing it, I mentioned his name once because it appeared you missed it. Actually note that I did not discuss McCullers at all, I think his rapid ascent was more of an outlier and make him a less apt comparable than Severino. And financially, all I mentioned was that Tampa is arguably the worst revenue team in MLB. I didn't bring up the Twins or Pirates financials at all. Feel free to disregard if you like, you can make a pretty clear line between the 2015 clubs in terms of promoting these prospects, based on on-field performance and needs anyway

I never said the Twins were closer to the Yankees than the Pirates, please don't put words into my mouth!

What about the Yankees and Severino? Also, while there are some similarities with Glasnow and Snell, there are some key differences too. Neither pitched in AA until 2015, with Snell actually beginning the 2015 season repeating high-A and Glasnow missing over a month of action early in the year. Both pitched fewer innings than Berrios in 2014 too, by 2-3 starts for Glasnow and probably a month of action for Snell. Snell in particular came out of nowhere a bit in 2015, not ranking on any preseason top 100 lists according to B-Ref. Both showed Meyer-esque control issues at high-A in 2014 too (over 4 BB/9). In terms of experience and arguably refinement, Berrios was ahead of them when the season began, and did nothing to change that relative ranking during the 2015 season. So it's not really fair to use them as a yardstick to justify Berrios' placement at the end of the season. And in team context, the Rays and Pirates both had better pitching staffs than the Twins, particularly in terms of top-end talent in both the rotation and bullpen. They had less to gain from a prospect addition than the Twins -- even if those pitchers performed well, it's not clear there was an opportunity to even crack the top 2-3 in those pens and rotations. Meanwhile, multiple pitchers (Duffey, Jepsen, and May) were able to crack the top spots in our pen and rotation over the final two months. Even with a less than dominant debut performance, Berrios could have easily been one of our first options to start or enter a critical win-or-go-home, tiebreaker, or playoff game 1. Also, the Pirates pretty much had their playoff spot locked up at the trade deadline, giving them less incentive to make a big push. And the Rays were further behind the Twins, were actually sellers at the deadline, and rank notably behind the Twins in terms of revenue, all giving them more incentive to look forward to 2016.

Off the top of my head, Alex Burnett was young, Jose Mijares came up quickly... they've done it, a bit. Can't really count on such players, though, especially not to slot in near the top of the pen right away. The "closest" guys (Rogers and Meyer) apparently weren't worthy of helping the pen late in 2015, and the other guys are realistically at least a half-season away from debuting. Not to mention an MLB adjustment period.

Bullpens don't work quite like that -- days of rest, injuries etc. This is the pen that finished 2015 for us and was still very shaky overall. You really need an extra guy or two who can fit in at the top if you want to have any confidence in the group. The Twins might find those guys internally, but probably not until midseason at the earliest, maybe not even until 2017 (when you might need to replace Jepsen and Fien anyway, not to mention being a year closer to Perkins' eventual departure too).

Being bullish about our relief prospects isn't mutually exclusive from wanting another arm -- it's just being practical, offering some insurance for those guys not to be ready on opening day (and for likely needing replacements for Jepsen and Fien in 2017). Additionally, I know the FA reliever idea often gets shot down with the justification that reliever performance is too volatile. Well, wouldn't that volatility also apply to whatever internal options we develop? Obviously they cost less than a FA, but if your goal is to build a good bullpen it should still be a concern. The Twins could be very fortunate and produce 2-3 strong relievers internally over the next 2 years, but not every one of those guys is going to be healthy and producing at a high level every season, and even when they do, by that point they may simply be offsetting the loss of Jepsen, Perkins, or May. Counting on just a couple guys at the top, while filling the rest of the staff with guys like Boyer, Abad, etc. is how you wind up with desperate situations like 2015 when one of those top guys is injured or ineffective (or is needed in the rotation, like May) -- you may even have some sleeper success with a fill in guy like Boyer but when you are loath to trust him, it doesn't help all that much at the top. If you want to contend and field a good bullpen, you should really aim to have 4-5 guys you trust around the top of that pen, because not all of them with be healthy and performing at all times. For all their potential, none of our prospects are at that point yet. The Twins have Perkins, Jepsen, and May -- that's a start, but a good lefty like Bastardo and perhaps one more righty (like Mark Lowe would have been) would have put us in a really good position entering 2016.

I don't think my bullpen angst has been overstated. Although I have stated it a lot. The bullpen angst didn't just originate with fans this off season, of course -- it was also coming from the team all last season. And I just haven't seen enough effort to address it yet -- they got Jepsen in July, but didn't even give September call-ups to the two prospects most likely to be in the opening day mix (Meyer and Rogers). Abad's splits vs LHB look, well, bad. As the pen is currently constitued, there's no way they can even entertain the thought of May starting right now, which actually reduces their overall flexibility a lot more than a single 3 year guaranteed contract in the pen would (right now, Perkins at 2 years is the only RP with more than a one year guarantee). Personally, if he's going to be used in relief, I'd like to see May as the weapon taking the pen from good to great, not just a patch to make the pen tolerable like he largely was in 2015.

Huh, I could have sworn that even with Jepsen, May, and Cotts, are bullpen was still suspect at the end of the 2015 season, with the likes of O'Rourke vs RHB and Graham blowing close games, and TR even flagged the pen as an area of need. I had no idea that complete inactivity (maybe even subtraction so far, given Abad's struggles vs LHB as compared to Cotts) would render our bullpen "fine" just a few offseason months later...

And the Twins bullpen, with Perkins and Jepsen (and May) was still somewhat deficient at the end of 2015. And Jepsen will become one of these FA relievers in a year if not extended, Perkins has some lingering question marks, and May might be needed or better deployed in the rotation. There is ample room to add another arm to the top of the bullpen mix, without blocking any arms on the farm (none of which, by the way, are likely ready to contribute out of the pen from day 1 in 2016).

Why are the most expensive relievers always trotted out in this argument? Mark Lowe signed for 2/11, with an AL Central team that finished behind us in the standings, no less. There was no indication that the Twins pursued him. He's not as sure of a bet as O'Day, but he's got some recent demonstrated MLB upside and was easily a worthwhile gamble around that price.

First of all, one more Jepsen-type reliever is a stop-gap player? That player might simply be Jepsen's replacement come 2017. Second of all, while I am not necessarily making both of the points as stated here, they are also not necessarily contradictory. One could argue that the expense of the starters, and the limit of the 5-man rotation, is still a vastly greater commitment than adding a 3/18 type FA reliever right now would be. One could also argue that signing those starters, while making a logjam on paper, made it more likely we'd ultimately field a competent top 5, and that approach should be applied to the bullpen.

Guerrier was claimed on waivers over 10 years ago. Why not mention Tony Fiore too? The Twins bullpen has been pretty terrible since TR took over again, and his biggest successes (Burton and Fien) were both acquired over 4 years ago. Boyer had such a good season, we didn't even trust him when we were desperate for relief help down the stretch. I think it's fair to question that approach, especially when the bullpen was such a big weakness and we're hoping to continue contending this year.

The relief contracts proposed here are all shorter and significantly cheaper than Nolasco's deal. And Nolasco's deal itself didn't clog any pipeline -- it was the combination of that deal plus the two similarly expensive deals/extensions we handed out a year later that have put a bit of a squeeze on our younger/cheaper starters. No one here is suggesting signing three multi-year FA relievers, just one to give us a better chance to be strong on opening day 2016, and insurance for all the question marks in our pen (Perkins health, Jepsen FA, Fien nontender, prospects stagnating, etc.). If that FA reliever has a down year, we still have a ton of flexibility to put them in a low-leverage role if we want to.

Sipp didn't entirely "suck for years" -- he actually was pretty effective for a few years early with Cleveland, then rebounded with Houston in 2014. And his 2015 salary wasn't set by the open market -- with less than 6 years service time, he was still under Houston's control. I don't think anyone is arguing that these 6m guys are sure things, but they are almost certainly better bets than the Twins have been taking in their bullpen constructions the past 5 years. If the Twins had a track record of identifying and turning around guys like Sipp, I'd understand, but we don't.

Guerrier's delayed arrival was partly due to recent surgery. I wouldn't restrict yourself to looking at pitchers either -- the point is, the Twins have a history of signing MLB veterans to minor league deals that are de facto MLB deals, but give them some roster flexibility through spring training. Burton, Sean Burroughs, Kubel, Bartlett, Guerrier, maybe even Boyer... all signs point to Abad being in that group as well. Most observers were surprised he "settled" for a minor league deal, which suggests it's probably a de facto MLB deal too.

I assume you meant "adequate defensive player" here instead? John Hicks posted a 68 wRC+ in AAA last season.

Agreed 100%. I will add that this excuse is especially ridiculous given our current bullpen, since zero of our "internal pipeline" relief prospects look ready to contribute in MLB on opening day, and there are so few long-term commitments in our current MLB pen -- Jepsen is a FA after one more year, Perkins two (plus a team option), and Fien is a potential non-tender next winter. And arguably our best reliever (May) could well be needed in the rotation. This pen might be short on present-day MLB talent, but it absolutely is not short on the kind of flexibility that can handle a 3/18 type FA addition.

Recent Twins history suggests Abad is all but guaranteed a spot at this point, no? And the minor league deal just gives them 40-man flexibility until opening day?