Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. Especially since few if any of the younger guys will be ready opening day, and a number of our returning pitchers (Jepsen, May, and Fien) aren't locks to be in our 2017 pen anyway.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure relievers (at least, non-closers) have much interest in a "prove it" deal, even if they are good they aren't going to break the bank trying again next winter. That said, I also agree he wouldn't have much interest in an option year either. Last we heard, Bastardo wanted 3/18 and apparently that is not happening. He could still get something like 2/10, 2/12, or 3/13.5, etc., no?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct me if I am wrong, but the implication was that by not signing a FA reliever, those pitchers would be called up when ready, and the Twins were expecting that to be early. If you're not calling them up when ready, not signing a FA reliever, and giving nice long leashes to Fien, Pressly, and Tonkin... arg...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Where was there any flexibility with the 2015 pen? They unnecessarily signed Stauffer to fill Swarzak, gave a job to Boyer who they still didn't want to trust or retain even after a 2.49 ERA, guaranteed a full season job to Duensing who they likewise had no interest in trusting or retaining, gave the first staff opening to Aaron Thompson who again they had no great interest in trusting or retaining. They moved May to the pen... then promptly removed him for a week at a critical juncture for a spot start rather than give an obvious promotion/audition to Rogers or Berrios. They acquired Jepsen to help bolster a weak pen... at precisely the time Perkins was hurting the pen then disappearing. They let destined-to-be-designated Aaron Thompson sit at home on the 40-man roster for September rather than take an early look at one of the obvious offseason 40-man additions. They let another eventual waiver casualty in Achter blow a lead in September. They promoted a potential lefty-killer in O'Rourke, only to let him lose a critical game facing RHB. They made a fine move in starting Duffey, but that doesn't mean they didn't also bungle the pen.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Note I didn't limit it to September. Somehow AJ Achter managed to blow a lead in September, and O'Rourke and Graham in late August. There was no reason Rogers couldn't have been up in August, maybe to get his feet wet in the spot start that went to May? Even if he didn't pitch enough or in meaningful enough situations to make a difference in our 2015 fortunes, I would think any MLB experience and evaluation opportunities would have been valuable in constructing our 2016 pen. Same for Meyer.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I wasn't aware the Twins could only afford one or the other. Also, Park has yet to actually demonstrate he is an MLB hitter to the degree that Bastardo has demonstrated he is a MLB pitcher, not to mention whether a DH really helps the Twins with Sano ticketed for the OF. "Not wretched" is a uselessly low standard when building the bullpen of a hopefully competitive team. And it's not just an issue of quality -- it's also depth, both in 2016 and beyond. We all love Perkins, Jepsen, and May at the moment, but one of those guys has recently seen his health and career go in the wrong direction, and the other two quite possibly won't be a part of the 2017 Twins bullpen. You might need 2 guys to emerge soon as plus relievers from your minor leagues just to offset those losses and maintain the "not wretched" status quo. It would be even more difficult to actually try to make a plus bullpen soon out of these parts.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    So if Rogers is ready, Tonkin deserves two months, and Fien and Pressly are both worth sticking with, that doesn't leave much room for Burdi, Chargois, or Melotakis by May 1st as suggested in another thread, does it? Also, how much trust and upside do you realistically have in Tonkin, Fien, and Pressly at this point? Even if they stick and contribute something, it's getting harder and harder to envision a scenario where those guys help at the top of the pen, which was sort of the problem with the 2015 bullpen to begin with. Fien, Pressly, and Tonkin were fine in 2015, Boyer was great, even Duensing, Graham, and Thompson managed to be decent for stretches -- yet none of those acceptable performances mattered much when we needed help at the top of the pen in the stretch drive. Frankly, this team should be adding a guy who could realistically and immediately be trusted to slot in near the top, and letting the above guys duke it out for the lower leverage spots with the new faces looking to get their feet wet. With so few guaranteed contractual commitments, we're at no risk of too many talented players for too few spots. But we need help at the top right away, and we need an opportunity to evaluate guys for future top end, high leverage duty.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above -- Bastardo is only the primary option now (with Clippard, I guess) because the Twins have already passed on many other better and perhaps cheaper options. If the Twins had a case against signing Bastardo, but understood they needed immediate help in the pen, they should have acquired someone else long ago. They simply don't believe they need immediate help in the pen.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to mention, Bastardo wasn't the only option. Tony Sipp, Shawn Kelley, etc. Our division rival signed Mark Lowe for 2/11, got K-Rod in a salary dump for 2/13.5, and traded for Justin Wilson (from the Yankees just after we made our own deal with the Yankees). The Mariners got Benoit as a 1/8 salary dump. Trevor Cahill (11.6 K/9 with the Cubs late last year, 8 K's in 5.1 IP in the playoffs) signed for 1/4. No evidence the Twins pursued any of these options, many of which would have only required a one or maybe two year commitment. The Twins aren't simply choosing between internal options and Bastardo, or rationally avoiding 3 year deals, or exceptionally confident in their sleeper relief prospects. They are primarily overrating their current group of MLB relievers and guys like Abad, and under-rating how poor and untrustworthy much of their 2015 bullpen actually was.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Jepsen is FA after 2016, Perkins is coming off an injury and pretty disastrous finishes the past two seasons, and it's not clear quite yet that May shouldn't be starting. We could use help there right now, and will probably need additional help there in 2017. No need to wait for Burdi to pitch himself into that mix (which might be mid-2016 before he could arrive, and maybe 2017 before he's actually comfortable and trusted in a key role). Plenty of room to sign a FA now, and still accommodate any prospects emerging.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Certainly there were issues early in the season too, although I wouldn't mention Oliveros specifically as he is/was ultimately pretty fungible. But by August, it was pretty clear they still had needs and they had a lot of guys they didn't trust to meet those needs, and Rogers, Berrios, and Meyer were performing well in AAA, and only Berrios presented any kind of 40-man roster issue among those 3. Just no excuse, especially when your offseason bullpen plan seems to be built around the hope/expectation that Rogers and Meyer in particular can ascend very quickly in 2016.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I might agree with you if we actually saw the young pitchers last year. Rogers (or Berrios) and Meyer clearly showed with their 2015 performance that they deserved a chance to help bolster the pen late in the year. Why should we trust the 2016 team to aggressively promote guys who haven't even reached that level of accomplishment yet?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I doubt any of the guys you listed above this comment are 90% likely by themselves to be MLB contributors by mid-2017, much less multiple guys. I think you are under-estimating the volatility of prospects, especially ones with iffy records so far like virtually all of the relievers in this group, or ones with zero experience in the role like Rogers. Given the quantity of guys you named, it's probably 90% likely that at least one of the group contributes by mid-2017, but another important factor is how you define "contribute." Fien, Pressly, Boyer, Abad, etc. have certainly "contributed" in MLB, but rarely at a high level and trusted in high leverage situations. The Fien/Pressly/Boyer/Abad level is not really the bar that the Twins need these prospects to clear. 2015 clearly demonstrated a need above that, for another guy or two to dominate near the top of the pen, and by 2017 that need might be even greater if Jepsen departs, May is needed to start, and/or Perkins fades further. Bastardo, or earlier in the offseason Mark Lowe, or any other FA reliever isn't guaranteed to perform at a certain level either, but each has some very recent high-level MLB work under their belt. A 2-3 year commitment to one or two of those guys is a perfectly rational and affordable hedge against all that internal uncertainty.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    "In other news, the Twins are certainly monitoring the Upton and Cespedes situations, and would be interested in either free agent on a one year deal."
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Problem is, this is basically an automatic excuse to not sign FA relievers for every team, every year. Every team in baseball every year has relief prospects with good stuff but no better than iffy AA experience who could in theory emerge quickly if things break right. But things usually don't.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, right now the Twins have about 12 returning pitchers projecting as likely to make the roster. Then Abad, O'Rourke, Meyer, Graham, and Darnell... I know a few of these guys might get injured or cut by April, but it might be hard to whittle that group down to 10 as early as May 1st. To press the issue that quickly, it might not be enough for Burdi, Chargois, Melotakis and Rogers to simply show signs they are ready, but have to demonstrate otherworldly dominance at a new level (or role in the case of Rogers).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, that's not really the issue. Of course quick development is possible, I don't think anyone is arguing that. The issue is that, according to some people's explanation of the Twins bullpen approach this winter, they are counting on this quick development as likely. I don't think a traditionally conservative organization, coming off a competitive year and hopefully entering another one, would count on that as likely, especially given the players in question and how little high level competition has actually taken place since our last evidence of the team's evaluation of them. I would wager that the Twins inactivity in the relief market is almost certainly not based on their keen awareness of a behind-the-scenes rapid development of internal prospects; it's far more likely just a product of their conservative nature and their overrating of guys like Abad, Tonkin, the health of Perkins, etc., and underrating the need to start May.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. The Berrios decision alone didn't bother me so much, but the combination of decisions around Rogers, Berrios, and even Meyer late last season was very disappointing. There wasn't really any tangible benefit to not promoting one or two of those guys, it was just the Twins conservatism and inflexibility (and overrating lesser pitchers) rearing its ugly head.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be surprised because of the number of SP we have, but not shocked about money. The Twins are pretty frugal, but they don't have a history of playing service time games to save money. That's one of the reasons why I thought we could have called him up last year.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, he had to be added the previous winter, so when he was assigned to the minors in spring 2013 he was technically optioned.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Quite possibly. Upton would effectively be on a 2 year, $6.9 mil total contract when you subtract Nolasco's deal, and you would also free up a 40-man roster spot which has some utility. With SS and utility infield covered, Santana's only immediate usefulness to the Twins is as a stopgap CF or 4th OF, and Upton is likely better in that role anyway. Right now, trading Santana would obviously be selling low, but I don't see him having much of a chance to rebuild his trade value here -- he's not going to do it on the bench, and he's out of options, so he can't do it in AAA anymore either.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Actually on the 25-man roster too. At that point, you can get him off the roster by releasing him, but there's no realistic way to send him to the minors or avoid paying him the balance of his contract (barring a trade, of course, which also seems unrealistic at this point ).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, I think you are missing Mike's point. Which is, saying these guys will be ready May 1st, when they weren't ready on September 1st, sounds more like wish-casting than pragmatic planning.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a bit of a reach based on a game 162 lineup. Santana hadn't played an inning at second base in two years, covering the entirety of his MLB and AAA experience to date. While the game was meaningless in the standings, it was hardly the time or place to begin a position conversion (especially one with a decent risk of collision). The only way to get Santana in the same lineup as Escobar and Buxton was to put him at short, with Escobar at second. Also, while Escobar was in the game with mostly reserves (although Sano was in there too, and Buxton and Kepler aren't viewed as future reserves), they simply didn't have any other infielders on the roster other than Dozier and Plouffe (Polanco and Bernier were not recalled in September). It might tell us that Escobar ranks behind Dozier and Plouffe in seniority, but I'm not sure we can read too much into it about Escobar's future role.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Sanchez was 7.9 K/9 last year and for his career, and only had 1 or 2 seasons where he notably beat that. Reduced K's wasn't his problem in 2015. Also, Verlander was 7.6 K/9 last year and 8.3 K/9 for his career, not clear there's any real difference between him and Sanchez in present day strikeout ability. Zimmermann has never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but he's consistently been around 120 ERA+. If 2015 was a sign of Verlander adapting to diminished stuff, he might settle into the same. Mike Pelfrey is obviously a head-scratcher. I guess he's their Alfredo Simon replacement? Definitely wouldn't have been my first choice to fill out the starting staff... On offense, they added Cameron Maybin, I'd be surprised if they were even trying to land Cespedes or Upton at this point.
×
×
  • Create New...