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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Zimmermann and Upton have averaged almost exactly 7.5 WAR combined per season over the last 4 years.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, agreed 100%. They needed another arm like Jepsen back at the deadline, and very little has changed since then. Pressly should be back, but Boyer's magic is gone, and Perkins is a bigger question mark than before. Potentially dominant MLB LOOGYs O'Rourke and Rogers were largely untested in that role. Even May had concerns about his back down the stretch. And as I've reminded countless posters here, Jepsen himself is scheduled to be gone after 2016 unless we extend him at a near-FA rate. Fien too might be more expensive than his role warrants by 2017. I like some of our internal options, and I hope that we are aggressive with them, but it's hard to view this offseason's bullpen approach as anything other than being way too comfortable with mediocrity. Even our primary minor league invite (Abad) seems like we were shooting rather low (a LHP with terrible numbers vs LHB).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be, I was just speculating based on this projected roster (which included all of Plouffe, Arcia, and Milone too). Personally, I doubt that all three of the out-of-options suspects (Tonkin, Santana, and Arcia) make the team out of spring training, but again they are included on the projected roster. The only other real option for removal this spring, barring a 60-day DL injury, would be Darnell.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to tobi's points above, the Twins have never signed a reliever with Madson's record of quality. Not all minor league deals are equal -- Blaine Boyer was never going to be a trusted setup man in a pennant race or postseason, regardless of how well he performed. They've never acquired a pitcher coming off a relief season like Davis's 2012 with Tampa. They've never really tried to find a "LOOGY in the rough" with an MLB pitcher like Morales. They've never aggressively promoted a reliever like Herrera, Finnegan, or even Tim Collins (all age 21 debuts). They've never aggressively cut a guy with a good ERA but poor peripherals like Jason Frasor. (Actually the Twins have done the reverse quite a bit, most recently with Aaron Thompson.) Otherwise, yeah, exactly how the Royals are doing it. Granted, some of it is just execution -- the Twins haven't yet developed guys like Holland, Herrera, etc. -- but I see that as a concern that should be addressed (perhaps by a modest acquisition of another established reliever) rather than simply an excuse to wait longer.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    How does it make sense to oppose acquiring a veteran reliever like Bastardo because you don't trust the Twins to break from their usual treatment of veterans, but then turn around and advocate an aggressive MLB promotion strategy that implicitly requires the Twins to break from their usual treatment of veterans? If we are wish-casting anyway, why not acquire another arm better than Abad and improve the baseline projection? There is still plenty of room for them to be aggressive with promotions if they want to be. In addition to Abad, the projected roster thread has Tonkin, Nolasco in the pen, Jepsen and Fien who are midseason trade candidates given their contract status, May who could also start, and Perkins who is probably an aggressive DL candidate. If they don't have both Santana and Arcia on their bench, they will likely have the option to add an extra reliever when they want too.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll take it!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    One thing to note about this projected roster: they have one non-40 man guy making the team (Abad), but they also have the three out of options guys (Tonkin, Arcia, and Santana) making it too. In that scenario, I guess Logan Darnell gets waived to make room for Abad?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Further expanding on my above post, the Tigers were 50-52, 3.5 games out of the second wild card, a 79.5 win full season pace when they traded Price, Cespedes, and Soria at the deadline. Given that they've replaced those 3 with Zimmermann, Upton, and K-Rod, not to mention a few other moves (Lowe, Wilson, Salty, Maybin), 79-80 wins is probably a better "baseline" to use for judging their 2015 performance going forward. Furthermore, they lost Cabrera for a month and a half on July 3, at which point they were 40-39, only 1.5 games out of the postseason. They didn't get much of anything from Verlander until August either. Obviously they could lose Cabrera again, etc., but the point is, they were fully in the mix in the middle of 2015 even with a lot of dreadful performances, injuries, etc. Given their present roster, I see no reason they shouldn't project to fully be in the mix again for 2016-2017, which seems a lot better plan for them than whatever alternatives have been suggested here (rebuilding? standing pat and saving cash?). They obviously don't project to be a 90+ win team, but few teams ever do, and I'm not sure that's the most meaningful goal or target.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Cespedes, career OPS+: 122 Upton, career OPS+: 121 If your point was that Upton merely offsets the loss of Cespedes, Upton doesn't offset Cespedes and leave them as a 74 win team. When they dealt Cespedes last year, they were still 50-52, about 5 full wins ahead of where they actually finished. David Price, career ERA+: 126 Jordan Zimmermann, career ERA+: 118 I'd say that's remotely close.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    In those two deals, the Brewers would be giving up 2 guys from their 40-man roster, and taking back 6. That's not happening, especially not for a rebuilding team like Milwaukee clearly would be.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Nitpicks aside, very fun article!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That seems light. Oswaldo Arcia is pretty worthless right now to the Brewers, who are set in the OF corners and can't use a DH, and he's out of options coming off a bad season at AAA so they can't exactly flip him, and Del Rosario is obviously a lottery ticket. Gonsalves is a nice prospect, but he's a B- by Sickels and is a long ways away yet, and if all it took was him and filler, I suspect Smith would have been dealt already. With Giles, Kimbel, Chapman, etc. already dealt, Smith would probably be the top reliever on the market if the Brewers made him available. And with 4 years of control left and just now becoming a closer, I don't think the Brewers are in a rush to move him either.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Mejia wouldn't count towards the 40-man roster right now while suspended, but this trade wouldn't open up a 40-man roster spot for the Twins. Duda would take Plouffe's place, and the team would still be at 40. You'd have to move someone to sign Venable.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The Tigers had four straight first place finishes before last season. I'm not sure one season is enough to show that "the formula didn't work". What exactly would be the better approach? They've got too many good players to just blow it up or do nothing, so why not try to add a few more pieces? Especially in an offseason when your first round pick is protected. They have a very good chance to be in the mix for the division race, which is kinda the whole point, isn't it? Blowing it up or doing nothing hurt those chances, and doesn't exactly offer a clear path to a better team in the future either.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    They've definitely had bullpen issues, but I like their pen moves this winter. K-Rod keeps getting the job done, Mark Lowe was a nice signing, and Justin Wilson had a very strong season for the Yankees. K-Rod and Lowe are the only 30+ year olds in their pen, and even they're only 33 and 34 and coming off very strong seasons. Lowe even pitched pretty well in the playoffs last year for Toronto.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Massively off-topic, but I saw that too. Problem is, Abad's issues go back a lot further than just tipping pitches last season. He actually has reverse platoon splits, with awful numbers vs LHB for 3 of the last 4 years. And we're priming him to be our top lefty setup man...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't that kind of the approach into 2015? Obviously we weren't planning on contending, but all we heard about was that Meyer could instantly boost the pen and Burdi and Reed weren't far behind, etc. Also, characterizing a single 2/12 type signing as "going nuts" is kind of a problem here. It's not going nuts, in fact given what we saw from our MLB bullpen and prospects in 2015, acquiring another good Jepsen-level reliever for 2016 would be the conservative, prudent move. With no one but Perkins signed beyond 2016, there is still a metric ton of flexibility in this pen to add a veteran arm and promote prospects.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The Pirates are also cheap, I wouldn't read too much into that. The Twins knew Torii Hunter best and offered him 3/45 when he got 5/90 on the open market...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    You can make that case about a lot of individual roster spots, especially in the bullpen. But it adds up. Also, there are indirect effects -- maybe Abad isn't a huge downgrade in the standings from Bastardo in a single spot/role (although check Abad's splits vs LHB), but a scuffling Abad might mean we run Perkins out there injured, or keep May in the pen even if we have trouble in rotation, etc.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Abad is the guy I would switch out, but Wetmore is probably right.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    He has barely traded any prospects at all, let alone top ten. I think you can count on one hand the number of times TR traded a guy who wasn't already on the 40-man roster. That is what made the Jepsen trade so unusual (and refreshing to me, even if I would have liked to see another bullpen move since).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not really sure who wants expanded rosters like this. The easy answer is the players -- more MLB jobs -- but every team cuts a couple guaranteed deals like Schafer and Stauffer every year. Expanded rosters might just keep those guys around longer rather than actually make new jobs. And young guys like Arcia, Santana, and Tonkin might prefer taking a chance on waivers rather than being stuck as the 26th-28th man for the Twins. As for the teams, I am not sure they really need extra players either. Fans bemoan the lack of bench players, but I guarantee a 26th roster spot would go to another reliever on the majority of clubs anyway. I really don't see a strong need for this from any side.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    To those supporting the Twins bullpen inaction: don't you worry they are counting the chickens before they hatch?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure Abad is that lefty, unfortunately. Perhaps the only setup lefty in the pen to open the season...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, you can make that case about Bastardo. But how about Mark Lowe? How about Wilson, K Rod, Benoit who had no choice in what team acquired them? The Twins weren't participating in the relief market this winter, so there's no point manufacturing excuses for individual cases.
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