Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    What if Murphy is playing only a couple games a week and not hitting, or hitting about as well as Suzuki? Will we hear more about how hard it is to hit in the backup catcher role, but no change in roles?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    According to Molitor, he's not viewing it as an open competition at this point in time: https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/700817447142694913
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, Bastardo didn't stay with the Pirates, he signed with the Mets. I think there were others that could have helped the Twins, notably Lowe, but agree no one left on the FA relief market interests me.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The only way you could be even mildly shocked by Mauer's strikeouts last year is if you looked at counting stats with no accounting for rate...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The priority it was given seems questionable, though.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    That is a fine objective, but at this point, given their moves and history, it seems like RH DH depth was vaulted ahead of actually fielding a good MLB bullpen.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if that is what Ryan is saying at all. Out of options is Tonkin, mastered AAA is probably Pressly, and the reference to 10 lefthanders almost certainly leads with Abad, and includes Boshers, Strong, Darnell, etc. Thanks to our inactivity, those are the primary options for the last one or two pen spots, that has been known for some time. I doubt we'll get any strong indication that an aggressive youth movement is the plan until it is actually underway.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Uribe it is! http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/indians-to-sign-juan-uribe.html
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, Ynoa was one of Winston-Salem's better relievers last year! Kind of rooting for him, he's gone from hyped prospect to underdog now. He's still on the White Sox 40-man roster, and has one more option year remaining. Maybe they will give him a look this year, or someone will claim him in 2017.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting idea. I know a few relief spots are pretty fungible, I wonder if we produce more of these types than other clubs, though. In the last 5 seasons: Dumatrait Gray Roenicke Burton Swarzak Guerrier 2.0 Duensing Boyer Thompson doesn't meet the 50 inning threshold, but I might add him. Burnett and Thielbar got claimed off waivers but didn't last much longer. We're close to producing 2 of these a year. Who next?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, Ordonez career K rate: 11%, career worst: 13.5% Park was up to 25% his last two years in Korea. That would be a heck of an adjustment. For reference, Kang's K rate as a rookie last year was basically the same as his recent rates in Korea.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh yeah, remember when Gardy to the Tigers was alleged to be all but finalized? Whatever happened to the blog that published that, I wonder?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    You're asking me to prove the usefulness of BABIP by making a personal prediction for Danny Santana's 2016 stat line. If I said that early childhood education was a leading indicator of future academic success, would you respond, "Prove it, hotshot -- what's my nephew Danny's GPA going to be next year?" it's absurd.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    No, we're justifying the consideration of BABIP (along with other stats, of course) because of mountains of research like this: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/9/1/2393318/what-hitting-metrics-are-consistent-year-to-year
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    It was personal, and he stated that he prefers not to discuss it. My guess would be nothing physical (at least nothing physical that should impact his baseball performance going forward).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be. Abad's got a $1.25 mil salary due if he makes the MLB roster, and the Twins haven't cut any minor league deals at that salary level recently. It's also clear we place a premium on veteran bullpen arms/experience, particularly for opening day, and we just let two other veteran LHRP depart, and the best LH bet to take Abad's spot is Rogers who has yet to pitch in MLB and has yet to throw a pitch out of the bullpen anywhere... I am just reading between the lines that Abad's spot on opening day is pretty much guaranteed.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Uh-oh! Someone just got Parker Hageman'd!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    They didn't have him as Plan A in 2006, but they most certainly did in 2007. And again in 2009 (shortstop) and 2010 (third base again).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a pretty low bar, and even that isn't clear at this point. Duensing, 2015: .741 OPS against Abad, career: 736 (in lower leverage, with a lot of innings in Oakland and in the National League) Abad's strikeout rate has been better, but it's still only roughly league average for relievers, so a roughly league average relief performance (classic Duensing) is a fairly likely outcome. I should add, I don't prefer either, I just don't want either on this roster.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I might take a peek at that if I get some time. Again, though, I'd probably be looking at a subset of MLB teams, those trying to compete and not early/mid rebuild. Personally, I'd like Berrios at #6 and May in the mix too, but I don't see it right now. May is almost 100% slated for the pen, and until we see they are truly willing to bury Nolasco, I think Berrios is #7. That's a key distinction, because while you might prefer one group over another, Latos/Johnson/Danks aren't that much different than Milone/Duffey/Nolasco (particularly if you're at all pessimistic about Duffey as a starter going forward). And beyond that, Dean/Rogers/Darnell are not appreciably different as MLB SP fill-ins than Carroll/Beck/whomever either. Berrios vs Nolasco here is the key to the Twins depth advantage. Will be very interesting to see how that unfolds.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I meant projected/expecting to compete, sorry. Teams like Philly and Colorado who aren't even trying to compete or establish a reliable top 6 starters really aren't comparable to teams like the current Twins and White Sox.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    But what were their projections for those same players in 2015? Probably about the same, and yet they posted OPS figures of .718 (Mauer & Arcia) and .626 (Vargas).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Steamer has Park projected for 20 HR, but they're not really trying to project playing time. The Fangraphs depth chart projection uses Steamer rate stats but tries to project playing time too. With those PAs, he would be projected to hit 30. Park: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=18717&position=1B Depth Charts: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=8 However, I have no idea how they arrived at that projection. If that was his median projection (to be a top 50 hitter in MLB by wRC+), he certainly would have warranted more than a 4/24 commitment, no? I guess if you base it primarily off of Kang's success, you could get there, but with so little data and such massive error bars, that seems high for a median projection. Were Tomas, Rusney Castillo, etc. simply projected to hit like Abreu, Cespedes, and Puig?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    If Abad is healthy in spring training, he's pretty sure to make the roster. As for how long he'd stick, I don't know, but they kept Duensing on the roster all year over Rogers, I don't see why they couldn't do similarly for Abad in 2016, at least for a good portion of the season. Melotakis isn't quite close enough to be a major factor yet either.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    But if Arcia, Vargas, or Palka plays a more prominent role, that would almost certainly mean injury / less playing time for some of your starters, likely Sano and Park.
×
×
  • Create New...