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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB gamecasts don't necessarily record individual pitches for spring training. Often you will see that every batter who puts a ball in play only has one pitch recorded for the plate appearance (the final pitch). Every batter who walks has 4 (all balls). Every batter who strikes out has 3 (all strikes). If Berrios really retired 10 batters on 15 pitches, including 2 strikeouts, he might be the most efficient pitcher who ever lived.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    How was the wind today? 7 Twins XBH, all to left field.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    On the subject of spring training stats, one of the most useful (to me) seems to be B-Ref's "OppQual" which is average "quality" of opponent faced. Tells if you are facing more scrubs than MLB regulars, and generally indicates who is getting first crack at opportunities (and likely has an inside track at making the opening day roster). http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2016.shtml At the moment, ranking by OppQual with a playing time threshold of 1 IP or 7 PA, it almost exactly matches the commonly projected Twins opening day rosters, with exceptions around Sano/Park who had a priority on getting early work in regardless of opponent quality. It even seems to be capturing what I expected for the bullpen competition, that Reed/Burdi/Chargois/Melotakis in particular have little chance of making the club. Note that B-Ref spring training stats seem to lag a day or so behind MLB.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    30% of all balls hit in play, yes (BABIP). MLB league average was 29.9% last year. Gerrit Cole was at 30.8%, Jordan Zimmermann was at 30.6%, etc.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Pitch count stuff doesn't work for spring training. MLB Gameday doesn't track each pitch in spring training, only the final result of each plate appearance. It was driving me mad last spring, because people were claiming Trevor May wasn't stretched out enough to start based on his spring training Gameday pitch counts which were absurdly low... they really shouldn't publish them if they aren't working. For other stats, yeah MLB is fine, B-Ref has 'em too.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. The Cubs kept Jackson around as a mop-up man and insurance. They were actually pretty healthy in the SP ranks, before July they had only used 6 different SP. Interestingly, they did begin to use a few spot starter fill-ins in July, but not Jackson, and they released him shortly thereafter to reclaim the roster spot for the pennant race. The Twins could do the same. If we need more than 6 starters early in the year, you could call on Nolasco and see what happens. If it gets to be July and we're still in the race and Nolasco isn't an asset as either a starter or reliever, you release him. If we're out of the race anyway, you could keep him and repeat for 2017. Or disable him if you suspect he's still hurt at any point along the way, of course.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. What kind of guaranteed salary (if any) would Nolasco have gotten on the open market this winter? Teams aren't going to cover any more of his salary than that, and possibly even less at this point since most clubs have already signed other similar pitchers/projects over the winter.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. Although if he's really that likely to cost us wins, to the point that we're entertaining the idea of shipping him out with $18 mil, he's probably not all that likely to be a good bet of $8 mil even for a rebuilding club like the Braves. Again, see Bud Norris and his 1 year, $2.5 mil contract. Is Nolasco worth over 3 times the guaranteed cash as Norris right now?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    TR wasn't swayed at that moment, but he did elect to option Milone to AAA for awhile, and then of course sent May to the pen, all while keeping Pelfrey in the rotation the entire year. Both of those decisions could have been influenced by Pelfrey's earlier intransigence.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    That's exactly what I said -- he can refuse the assignment. However, after he has refused the assignment, he technically has the additional option to elect free agency and forfeit his salary. He obviously wouldn't choose to do that because of the money, but it is technically an option for him. If he doesn't elect free agency, he remains on the Twins 25-man roster until we release him, collecting his full salary. See here: http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3531 I'm guessing no one has ever actually elected free agency in such a scenario, but it is technically an option.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not trying to put words into your mouth. I think maybe I'm just not coming through clearly. If he's worth the ~$8 mil risk for the Braves, the Twins would just as well hold on to him -- they're only risking the same ~$8 mil anyway if they view $18 mil as unrecoverable (which is what it would mean to ship him out with $18 mil attached). I'll drop it, I think we've both had our say.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Norris is younger, and had a 108 ERA+ as recently as 2014. And he signed for 1 year, $2.5 mil. Guys like that are exactly why teams aren't eager to help the Twins and take Nolasco off their hands for 2/8 in March.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Edwin Jackson was in a similar situation last spring, and I am sure Cubs fans made a lot of similar suggestions to yours, that is all. Maybe it wasn't the Braves, although they dealt Kimbrel around opening day last year, but there are always rebuilding teams around. Interestingly, the Braves did eventually pick up Jackson last year... after the Cubs released him in July. They were in no rush to add him as an $8 mil long shot gamble in March If the Braves don't pick up Nolasco for $8 mil now, he will be the Twins long reliever and/or get released. Then he will be available to the Braves for the prorated portion of the minimum salary. When a guy's value is as low as Nolasco's right now, or Jackson's last spring, and falling, teams generally aren't in a rush to buy the guy before the value hits zero, unless they also get another piece in the deal (like the Diamondbacks sending a prospect with Arroyo to the Braves last year). Your Braves scenario is about as unlikely as Nolasco earning his $12 mil paycheck with the Twins, which you have all but dismissed as a possibility.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are just looking at the results of a perfect game in hindsight, of course it doesn't matter how the outs were achieved. But as Brock points out, the predictive power of missed bats and strikeouts is much greater than contact and balls in play, and that kind of predictive power is what we are particularly interested in when evaluating spring training performances.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    They didn't do it for Edwin Jackson. If the Twins want to unload Nolasco that badly, there is probably something wrong with him, he will probably get released or go to long relief, and his value will be virtually zero in a month or two. Why spend $8 mil on it now? And if it was at all likely Nolasco would be a "damn good" deadline piece, the Twins wouldn't be that desperate to unload him at those terms right now.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I was just imagining some kid with cancer, whose make-a-wish would be for Ricky Nolasco to start rather than relieve. And of course seeing Dave St Peter's response...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, the agent's statement seemed pretty calculated and anticipatory. This doesn't feel like the Pelfrey thing at all, where he reacted poorly to the news and when asked about a trade said he'd welcome it. This is getting out ahead of any news, and stating that he will presumably make some requests/demands if that news comes about. I don't know if it rises to the level of clubhouse cancer, but it doesn't feel like an isolated emotional response either.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Nolasco should follow their lead and somehow involve a kid with cancer.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Furthermore, when those teams see how desperate the Twins are to move Nolasco, why wouldn't they wait it out further? Even if the Twins rotation picture magically cleared itself up, it's not like there is ever a shortage of mediocre pitchers with Nolasco's recent record available for $12 mil.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    And especially a team like the Dodgers has the resources to try their $500k pitchers now, and make a splash for a good pitcher in July if they still need one. They don't go out of their way to guarantee $12 mil just to get a veteran warm body to open the season as their fifth starter.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I am sure Cubs fans said the same things about Edwin Jackson a year ago. I think you are overrating teams willingness to go out of their way to pay a guy with the recent performance and health history of Nolasco. Every team has internal candidates making the minimum they are willing to try this time of year, heck that is why we are trying to unload him from the Twins.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically Nolasco could refuse a minor league assignment and opt for free agency, nullifying his contract, but there is no way he would do that, since he can simply refuse and stay on the MLB roster and force the team to release him.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Peterson did get a restructured deal out of it with the Vikings. Last spring, Pelfrey said he'd welcome a trade. He never got it, but he did get a rotation spot for the whole season going into free agency. I agree Nolasco may not achieve his full public demands, but he doesn't necessarily have to, in order to achieve his primary objective. The idea that the agent is speaking against the wishes of his client isn't really supported by any evidence here yet.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not sure why we are questioning the $33 average. The majority of seats at Target Field are in the lower levels, that was a selling point for stadium construction. And if we use the middle "Select" games as a rough representation of average (sorry, best breakdown I can find on my phone right now), you will see that every lower level ticket is $32 or more. And there are still some upper level sections close behind at $30: http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/ticketing/sth/gen/tiered_pricing.jsp There are more price levels below average, true, but they represent a smaller number of actual seats.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    From the TMR report: "Average ticket price represents a weighted average of season ticket prices for general seating categories, determined by factoring the tickets in each price range as a percentage of the total number of seats in each venue. Premium seating (tickets that come with at least one added amenity or is classified by team as premium) are not included in the survey to calculate average ticket price. Luxury suites are also excluded from the survey. Season ticket pricing is used for any team that offers some or all tickets at lower prices for customers who buy season seats. Teams have a say in what seats are considered general or premium."
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