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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    What? Since when is a promising pitcher, in the midst of re-establishing himself as a starter after a trying season, a "logical" choice to be called up exclusively to be an emergency reliever? Especially with Graham and Dean on the 40-man roster? Meyer could have made his Tuesday April 26th start in Rochester, then been recalled for Milone's next turn Sunday on regular rest. It made no sense to skip his start so he could sit unused in MLB, then squeeze in a mop-up bullpen tune-up, then give him one start but limit his pitch count because you skipped his last start to sit unused in MLB...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    It would NOT have cost the Twins an option year to call up Meyer in 2014, unless they called him up and sent him back down for more than 20 days that year. If a player spends less than 20 days on "optional assignment" they don't use an "option year". And Meyer would not have been on "optional assignment" until after we called him up (added him to the 40-man roster) and demoted him again. With expanded rosters on Sep. 1, we could have even called up Meyer and demoted him around August 12th and still not have used an option year on him in 2014. I understand with his shoulder, they probably wanted to end Meyer's 2014 around Sep. 1, but knowing that in advance was all the more reason to get him some looks in August or even July. Allocating innings late in a lost season to guys like Pino, Deduno, Swarzak, and Burton is rather foolish -- all four of those pitchers were lost, for nothing in return, before November that year.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    But the 2014 Twins needed those innings to evaluate Yohan Pino, Sam Deduno, Anthony Swarzak, and Jared Burton!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the best two options were to let him continue to work in AAA for another month or two to re-establish himself, or to call him up and start the MLB transition, whether it was bullpen from the get-go or a stretch of starting first like Trevor May. I think most folks here are frustrated that the Twins chose a third path, which interrupted his work at AAA for a couple odd token appearances in MLB before an virtually predetermined return trip to AAA. Also, sticking him in the bullpen for as long as they did last year probably held him back too, simply from an innings/opportunities standpoint. He only threw ~55 innings after mid-May. He probably should have returned to starting no later than July 1, after his brief promotion to MLB (I'm guessing they realized he wasn't going to be an immediate bullpen upgrade at that point, particularly since they didn't even call him up for expanded September rosters after a pretty effective finish for Rochester).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it's more than a bit hyperbolic to simply say Meyer "can't hit the strike zone", much less to suggest that he is worse in that regard than an average 15 year old amateur pitcher. Most of his career, he's had a walk rate slightly higher than league average among professional competitors. Level: Meyer BB% / League BB% AAA: 11.1% / 8.6% AA: 9.7% / 9.1% A+: 7.1 / 8.2 A: 9.3 / 9.0 And now he's had 7 walks in his first 6.1 MLB innings. Trevor May had 7 walks in his first 2 (!) MLB innings. Jose Berrios has 7 walks in his first 9.1 MLB innings. Meyer may throw a few wild ones from time to time, but he's probably not trying to throw a simple strike on those pitches. He is likely trying to achieve a combination of velocity, movement, and location that even an average minor league pitcher can't comprehend, much less your 15 year old amateur self.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    That sounds like Meyer's enthusiasm for a relief role is just him identifying his clearest path to making the Twins. Not necessarily what he is most comfortable with, or where he believes he can succeed. I suspect Trevor May would have said similar things if we tried him in the pen in 2013-2014 when he was just trying to get promoted. But we didn't do it until after he was already promoted and had a half season of MLB starts under his belt, at which point he has been clear he prefers starting. Give Meyer the same opportunity and you might hear a different preference expressed too.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Going off on my WPA/LI correlation noted upthread... For 2016 so far, the Twins have 64.5% of relief appearances resulting in positive (or more accurately, non-negative) WPA/LI. MLB as a whole is at 67.1%. The Twins rank 14th out of 15 AL teams (ahead of only Toronto), and 23rd out of 30 MLB teams. All four of our division mates are in the top 11. Also, here are the results for 2015, where the Twins ranked 19th, and 6 of the top 7 teams made the playoffs: I don't know if it's worth diving in any deeper, but at least this gives Seth's numbers some context. Also, how does this measurement compare to, say, reliever WAR? Here are the Twins recent MLB ranks in "doing their job" by WPA/LI, followed by their ranks in reliever RA9-WAR at Fangraphs: 2010: 15th in "doing their job" / 7th in RA9-WAR 2011: 27th / 28th 2012: 9th / 17th 2013: 13th / 8th 2014: 27th / 22nd 2015: 19th / 13th 2016: 21st / 24th Actually, it appears RA9-WAR should be combined with LOB-Wins to account for runners stranded...
  8. Otto von Ballpark

    spy's album

    Images added to a gallery album owned by Otto von Ballpark in Members Albums Category

  9. Otto von Ballpark
    2016 updated

    From the album: spy's album

  10. Otto von Ballpark
    2015

    From the album: spy's album

  11. Otto von Ballpark
    2016

    From the album: spy's album

  12. Otto von Ballpark
    It appears this still doesn't work, correct? I just tried to post a table using the "Paste Rich Content" link and copying and pasting from Word, and it looks perfect when I paste it into the editor, but it gets completely messed up when I save the draft. So instead, I am trying to upload screenshots of the tables, but that hasn't worked for me either in my blog entry. I keep getting the error "The server returned an error during upload" when I click "Attach This File", although the same procedure works perfectly in regular forum posts, just not the blog entries. Case in point: I have tried it on multiple systems (Mac, Windows) and browsers (Safari, Chrome, Firefox), with multiple file types (JPG, PNG), all well below the file size limit -- all return the same error when trying to attach files to a blog entry. It's the exact same error you get when you try to attach without selecting a file with the "Browse" button first, although I clearly do select a file and the filename is displayed next to the "Browse" button when I attempt to attach. I finally found the gallery option, and was able to upload my image to a gallery album and insert it via My Media. A little wonky, but it works. Would be great to simply be able to post tables, though, for stats.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not so sure about that. I think the performance-enhancing effects of PEDs are probably more psychological than physical, in most cases. Remember, there is also a sizable contingent of MLB players who believe wearing certain necklaces improves their performance too.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    As is our AA manager. Maybe this is why we traded Hu?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if I'd go that far. I am sure they have disagreements (I know Molitor voted to keep Meyer in the pen this spring, and TR voted starter), but I don't know that there's any evidence that suggests it is any more than that. It does seem like the Kepler and Meyer appearances were rather forced, but I don't know if that was the result of friction between the Twins decision-makers. It could just as well be poor decision-making/planning by all involved.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The more accurate comparison would be number of games rather than date. The Twins have played 27 games, and are 11 games out of first and 7 games out of the second wild card. After 27 games, the 2015 Rangers were 11-16, 6.5 games out of first and 3.5 games out of the second wild card (interestingly enough, the second wild card spot was shared by the Twins at that point in the season!). I'd guess some team in a more comparable position to the Twins has also bounced back to make the playoffs. Obviously the odds are long, and it would be interesting to research. Of course, back to the topic at hand, I don't think sitting Meyer in an emergency reliever role for a week, and then subbing Milone for him, don't really make a meaningful difference in our 2016 competitiveness.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    This is what I am hoping the decision was based on last night. Although it still wouldn't explain why they called him up after only two starts, barely stretched out to 90-some pitches at AAA, then basically sat him for a week aside from his garbage time tune-up. If pitch counts and health were such a concern, don't you think you'd want him on a more consistent and controlled schedule for longer than 2 starts before starting to mess with it?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Hopefully, but yeah, the disparity seems pretty extreme. Although his hitting success wasn't quite so immediate at AAA this year -- as noted, through 7 games at AAA, he had a .608 OPS and a 32% K rate down there. Good to see him have a few solid games in a row now. But the disparity does sort of complicate his re-promotion schedule. Not quite as simple as posting a good stat line down there for X amount of time...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Mike Schmidt started out with a low average and lots of strikeouts, true, but even as a rookie he was providing tons of walks and power, making him almost a league-average hitter overall (95 wRC+ as a rookie) despite a low .249 BABIP (his career BABIP would be .280). That's not a comparable career start to Buxton (48 wRC+ and trending down). Besides, a hitter with the profile of Buxton, starting his career with the average and K's of rookie Mike Schmidt, but without the walks, power, or "bad luck" suggested by a low BABIP, is not something from which to draw encouragement.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Milone threw 33 pitches the very next inning! Berrios threw 29 pitches in the third inning of his debut start last week, and I don't recall whether the Twins even had a reliever warming up (as I noted before, Neil Allen visited the mound after Berrios' back to back walks that inning, as opposed to getting on the bullpen phone after Meyer's back to back walks). Last year, Molitor let our starting pitcher throw 30 or more pitches in an inning 20 times, with a max of Gibson at 39. Duffey threw 31 in the first inning of his MLB debut. Nolasco had a 36 pitch inning in his first start of 2015. Meyer threw 28 pitches in the third last night, he had just retired the last two batters without too much difficulty, and the weaker part of the Astros order was coming up. Seems fairly unusual to pull him at that exact moment. It does seem the decision was made earlier than that, possibly influenced by a priority to not make Milone wait too long to get his work in.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Why wouldn't Dean make any sense as a long reliever in case of emergency last week? You could always option him and recall Meyer if you wanted to bump Milone from his start this week. Why bring up one of your best prospects, as he's in the very early stages of re-establishing himself after a tough season, to ride the pine for a week and then start well outside his usual schedule?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Then why did they call him up, push back his scheduled start for a full week, and give him such limited innings in his time up here? If you're trying to develop the guy as a power-pitching starter, why do you break up that development because you want an emergency reliever for a few days? Why didn't they call up Graham last week to be the emergency reliever? Or Dean?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I know you were talking about Berrios' debut, but his appearance Monday might be instructive too. Berrios actually labored a bit more than Meyer in the first two innings Monday -- 42 pitches and a run allowed on a HR, two walks and a single. Then he started the third inning with back to back walks to two good hitters, Springer and Correa. Was there a call to the pen to warm up Milone at that point? Nope, a coaching visit to the mound. After which Berrios retired Rasmus and Gattis on 8 pitches, to end the inning at 61 pitches for the game, and then he retired Tucker to lead off a smooth 4th inning. Not all that dissimilar to Tuesday night, Meyer with back to back walks in the third to two good hitters, Altuve and Springer. Coaching visit to the mound? Nope, a call to the pen before Correa works a long at-bat that ends with a double. Then finally a visit to the mound, after which Meyer retired Rasmus and White on 8 pitches, but he got the hook before being allowed to face Preston Tucker with 2 outs, his night ending at 65 pitches.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a little unfair -- the poster described the first two innings, you reply as if to refute his description of the first two innings, and then you include Meyer's pitch count from the third inning where we all admit he struggled a bit. Meyer threw 36 pitches during the first two innings. Maybe not exactly "cruising" but not unusual either, and certainly acceptable given the results of those innings. Nolasco threw 31 pitches during his first two innings Sunday. After two innings, Berrios' pitch count has sat at 37 and 42 for his first two starts. After 3 innings on Monday night, Berrios' pitch count was 61. And that was with the benefit of a double play on the last pitch. Is 66 pitches for 8 outs that much different? Then Berrios settled down for perhaps his quickest inning yet in the 4th, facing the Astros 6-7-8 hitters starting with Preston Tucker -- the exact hitter and lineup spots that Molitor pulled Meyer before.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I've heard that too, is it true? I'm a novice with PitchF/X tools and judging pitchers in general, but Brooks Baseball shows a release point map for Meyer that looks pretty comparable to, say, Nolasco's from Sunday. Meyer, Tuesday: Nolasco, Sunday:
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