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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if they have put him on waivers yet? That would be the true "give away" test...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Career 132 OPS+? 25 years old? Only owed 2/17 after this season? Plenty of teams would be interested in Puig if the Dodgers were willing to sell him cheap. (They probably aren't selling him cheap, of course.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins put the kibosh on Mauer to any other position long before the 2013 concussion. He didn't play anything but catcher until 2011, and thereafter played nothing but C and 1B save for 9 innings in RF in 2011. The move to exclusive 1B was as much about deferring to a veteran's preference as anything else. Which is sort of assuming as a given the very thing that posters here are challenging -- that the Twins should be capable of deploying players -- even veterans -- at multiple positions for the benefit of the organization, and getting buy-in from them. And I still think "move" is the wrong term to use here -- "spot" might be better. I think in regards to certain players and positions, the Twins themselves have confused the terms, which is how they get into these predicaments.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Every position was once a position never played before by a particular player. It's also important not get too hung up on a team's past usage of a player. Yeah, giving Mauer a different glove at age 33 would be weird, but that's only because the Twins steadfastly refused to give him any different gloves from ages 21-32. Our conversation today would be much different if the Twins had give Mauer more reps away from C/1B dating back to the lost season of 2011...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, although that caution seems more appropriate to permanent changes / conversions like Sano to RF. I don't think anyone is advocating that here. If you want to play all of Mauer, Plouffe, Sano, and Vargas against MLB pitching right now, one of them probably has to jog out to the outfield every inning, that's all. Which should hopefully help you plan this offseason to best avoid such an arrangement next spring. It beats the alternatives, which are to bench veterans (unrealistic) or bench/demote an interesting young hitter in an otherwise lost season...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Doesn't he mean it really goes beyond that (judging players)? Don't you want analysts looking for ways to improve players too? And judging the systems you use for judging/improving players?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    ~$80k is for second-year 40-man roster players. First time on the 40-man roster is around $40k. And of course, 40-man roster guys make up a very tiny minority of the population of minor league players (definitionally, only about 15 per club). Likewise, minor league free agents who can afford to negotiate higher salaries are also probably a minority -- a handful of them per AAA team.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    By "others" you just mean Thrylos. I would have responded the same as you -- 26.5 WAR from ages 23-28 (~4.5 WAR per year) would be a fantastic outcome even for a hyped Buxton -- but I disliked the selection process that chose Willie Wilson as a comp. It's just not particularly meaningful, even beyond the usual tenuous "meaning" of statistical comps.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't you think third base is a little specialized? Why not just put him in an outfield corner? That would be better for the Twins current predicament, otherwise with Mauer at 3B you still have to put Plouffe, Sano, and Polanco somewhere, plus Vargas (and ideally Escobar too right now). The biggest "open spot" on the Twins right now is LF, where most seem to admit Grossman is at best a future 4th outfielder. That's where you have to flex someone.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally agreed, but what about a guy like Mauer? Chattanooga wasn't really an option for him, or for a near 30 year old free agent like Park (although sadly Park's offense might warrant it!). What about guys like Escobar or Polanco, who you previously wanted to focus on specific positions in the minors, but whose near future in MLB might be in a super-utility role? And whose bats have shown signs of supporting such a role? What about a guy like Plouffe, who may not be long for Minnesota and whose short-term value depends very little on his daily defensive positions in August 2016? I don't see the harm in giving these guys some outfield reps under these circumstances. Obviously it's not as ideal as developing clear valuable long-term starters at every position, but it sure beats wasting PAs on 4th or 5th outfielders just because they already own a glove.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    You seem to be ignoring that Ryan O'Rourke was also optionable, and you don't have to release Mauer to get more looks at Vargas. In fact, since you say Vargas will be back on September 1st, apparently they will work him into the lineup somehow on that date? Why not do that on August 20th instead? Especially when Kepler and Mauer were both hampered by injury on August 20th. Why wait? Was a just-used Ryan O'Rourke more vital to our roster this past weekend? Would it have been difficult to recall a pitcher similar to O'Rourke over the next 10 days if we needed one? There is still an open 40-man spot waiting for minor-league-free-agent-to-be Wimmers, and Albers is eligible to be recalled again tomorrow if we become really desperate. I get keeping Plouffe in the lineup to show he is healthy and to get his bat going, but his defensive position over the next couple weeks is pretty meaningless to his trade value. Best case, he is getting traded just before the September roster expansion, so teams will have plenty of positional flexibility without needing Plouffe to provide it. If he is traded, it will be for his bat and his years of 3B experience, not because he picked up a 1B mitt again this month. Might as well send him to an outfield corner over Danny Santana or Robbie Grossman, and let Vargas stay in the lineup. (Or send Escobar or Polanco to the outfield, if you want to keep their bats in the lineup and you foresee utility roles for them.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    David Freese extension: setting the market for Plouffe? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/pirates-extend-david-freese.html
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I would argue Sano to RF was a pretty ham-handed attempt at this. They moved one guy, the guy with the least seniority, somewhat permanently, despite some pretty obvious issues. Didn't really set a tone of flexibility across the roster. Also, I think a good manager with a good plan can get buy-in from just about anyone. Harder for Molitor at this point, but not impossible.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    In this case, with Plouffe's recent injury, they probably needed to show he actually could step on the field (and look fairly normal in doing so). I suppose you could call that a "showcase" albeit a generic and unexciting one. I agree that it doesn't much matter if he picks up a first baseman's mitt (or an outfielder's glove?), or whether he plays 4 games week or 5.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    My kid actually gets excited when Danny Santana comes to the plate. (Seriously.) I do not advocate keeping him in the lineup every day! Would your kid get less excited about Mauer occasionally playing an outfield corner? That would clear either 1B or DH for Vargas to start. And Mauer would be positioned closer to the cheap seats! Also, how about we give Mauer extra days off on the road? That would also mean he comes to the plate in front of the home crowd the same number of times, but could give Vargas a viable opportunity to play too (especially when combined with my other suggestion above).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not the basis of my criticism. It's that they used the wrong statistics to select their sample, to the point where it's not a particularly meaningful comparison for Buxton. It's like when Buxton was first struggling in MLB, and people pointed to Mike Trout's rookie struggles. No, Mike Trout was never "struggling like Buxton" in MLB except maybe in batting average, and neither was Willie Wilson or most of the other guys on this list. Randomly picking two more from the list -- Cliff Floyd had a 74 wRC+ for the years in question, a corner player waiting for his power to develop, basically the same as Torii Hunter did a few years later/older. Would you say he "struggled like Buxton"? Matt Williams had a 50 wRC+ at age 21, then improved to a 92 at age 22 thanks to some serious power -- all with a .223 BABIP. Is that comparable to Buxton? Frankly, there might not be a good comparable for Buxton's struggles. Here's a list with similar criteria to the article (1966-2011, age 21 or 22 seasons, less than 80 wRC+, min 100 PA) except also requiring a K rate above 25%, and a BABIP above .250: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=1966&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=21,22&filter=44474&players=0&sort=18,d A lot of sluggers waiting for their power to develop, and a lot of plain ol' bad hitters. And most of them still out-performed Buxton 2016 too...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    It's particularly questionable given our commitment to rigid roles at these positions. If we were willing to spot Mauer or Plouffe (or Park?) in the outfield, it becomes a lot easier to manage. But we're not -- Mauer and Plouffe will never see the outfield again as Twins, and I haven't heard anything about Park doing so either although he might be a better candidate than Sano. Sano appeared in the outfield, but as a misguided permanent position change (that has now been permanently terminated?), rather than spot appearances for flexibility. The obvious retort is, "if they all hit, it's a good problem to have!" But here we are with a log jam and we can't even give Park and Vargas the chance to fail in MLB at the moment.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't really buy those Buxton "comparables" -- they are only looking at results and not components. For example (using MLB non-pitcher numbers for league): Willie Wilson, 1978 14.8 K% (league 12.0%) 7.2 BB% (league 8.7%) .257 BABIP (league .282) .061 ISO (league .123) 58 wRC+ Byron Buxton, 2016 36.7 K% (league 20.5%) 6.0 BB% (league 8.3%) .311 BABIP (league .302) .122 ISO (league .167) 45 wRC+ So Willie Wilson had a better performance, with far more reasonable components -- and did I mention he was largely in a bench role? He spent the full season in MLB without any notable injuries, and started only 45 games. 42 times he was a pinch runner. 127 games played, 223 PA. How is that remotely comparable to what Byron Buxton has done (and been asked to do) in 2016?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. It seems like the Cardinals would not have permanently parked Mauer at 1B, or Plouffe permanently at 3B/1B, which feels like the big bottlenecks for the Twins right now. Grossman exclusively in LF also feels like an un-Cardinals move. Never mind doing those things and sticking to them in rebuilding/lost seasons. They also might make more liberal use of the DL, which the Twins could benefit from?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The point was, now he is getting zero. A little creativity to get him 3 seems better than zero.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope there isn't a plan to "showcase" Plouffe at 1B. It should help him shake off rust to keep his bat in the lineup, but him playing 1B has zero impact on his trade value. If a team that needs 3B help might also need someone to cover first sporadically, they will not view Plouffe as any more capable of that task because he started a few games there this month. He already owns a 1B mitt; he's already started a few games there in the past. That's more than enough for whatever 1B duty a team might be acquiring Plouffe for, at this point. To be fair to the Twins, I don't think they are trying to showcase his 1B glove -- he's only started there 3 times because Mauer couldn't play the field, and they preferred giving Plouffe offensive reps over Vargas, and they aren't approaching things with any particular creativity at this point.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    In general, you have a point, although the specific timing of this move is still a head-scratcher. When Vargas was optioned, Mauer and Kepler were unable to start in the field either of the next two games, so Plouffe started at 1B and Santana in RF. Seems like it would have been much more logical to delay this demotion, start Vargas at 1B over the weekend, and put Polanco or Plouffe in a corner OF spot (or even Escobar if you foresee his future back in a super-utility role, and prioritize infield reps for Polanco and Plouffe). In light of those injuries (and Sano's elbow), just ask this simple question, who was going to be more useful over the weekend -- Vargas or a just-used Ryan O'Rourke? Probably over the next 10 days too, unless those injuries magically disappear today. I know the Twins have taken plenty of flack for putting infielders in the outfield, but I really don't have a problem with it if the players and team are in evaluation mode and they aren't ignoring better options. (It's a problem when they open a season in "infielders in the outfield" mode, or when they expand it to "infielders at DH" like in May 2015.) Vargas' last 5 starts have been exclusively in doubleheaders or on "travel days". Yeah, if you limit any player to that role, they are pretty much expendable. I'd hope for a little more creativity from my manager, though, in these circumstances.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair enough. Someone else mentioned him as a positive earlier too. I guess in fairness to Neil Allen, you could put Pat Dean and a few others in the "at my expectations" category too...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Abad? The guy barely pitched for us, and his results were pretty much in line with the rest of his career (pretty steady the last few years except for a few extra HR allowed in 2015).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    You might have trouble finding "numerous successful power hitters" who had a 36% K rate in AAA... Palka is different than Parmelee -- a better track record of power, but with some other tradeoffs like K rate.
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