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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    We can speculate about all kinds of hypotheticals that could have changed the outcome, but this isn't a particularly strong one. The Dodgers had both Greinke and Kershaw from 2013-2015 and didn't get any further than they did in 2016. Greinke also had a mediocre season in 2016, missed the month of July and posted a 6.02 ERA upon returning for August and September. It seems rather unlikely that Greinke would have produced meaningfully different outcomes in the 2016 postseason than Maeda or Hill. (Urias was their only use of a 4th starter, for one start.) Not to mention that Kershaw himself was hardly infallible. And the Dodgers won both times they used a started on 3 days rest. Like a lot of teams that fall short in the postseason, they likely would have needed a combination of several changes, or a crazy Bumgarner-type run, to have made a difference.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Calhoun and Sheffield (and Verdugo, another name not frequently mentioned) are respectively rated equal or better prospects than Buehler and Stewart, according to Sickels, Fangraphs, etc. I didn't necessarily mean it would be enough to pull the trigger, but those names are very different than C prospects or filler. Knowing their inclusion or exclusion would help us better gauge Dozier's current/future market. Even if the preferred target is starting pitching, there has to be some "best player available" considerations here too, especially for second or third pieces in the trade.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The new CBA says a player can't receive a second QO anymore. So we couldn't offer him one next winter.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously they would be placing a bet on a bounce back. Last year was basically the first time in ~7 years that Bautista fell short of a ~5 bWAR full season pace, so it wouldn't be that crazy of a bet. Player performance trends aren't always straight linear.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but it would be nice to know. For example, De Leon plus Calhoun and Sheffield is a lot different than De Leon plus two C prospects.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    The "bad clubhouse" stuff around Bautista is all pretty vague, so it's hard to draw many conclusions from it.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    So once they found common ground on De Leon, clearly an exchange of names for the second piece happened. We pretty much know the Twins asked for Alvarez, Buehler, or Stewart (or possibly Bellinger, if he wasn't defined as off limits yet) -- is anyone going to step up to report what the Dodgers actually offered? They have a deep enough prospect list that it defies logic to assume they only offered AAAA guys or non-prospects beyond De Leon (especially given that discussions remained open for some time afterward -- if the gulf was really that wide, I expect they would have shut down immediately at that point). Did they offer Calhoun? Sheffield? Ruiz? Someone else in the Dodgers top 15? Top 20? Top 30?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Dave, does your source say that negotiations are still going on? And if so, what could they possibly be talking about after a month of discussions?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    As an active non-Twin, there is already a discussion in the "Other Baseball" forum: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/24672-plouffe-to-the-as-pending-physical/
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    As for July trade prospects -- I don't think Bautista would fetch a top prospect, but he could fetch some interesting packages. Even some modest non-prospect returns, like a buy-low SP candidate and former top prospect (i.e. Nolasco and Meyer) could be interesting to the Twins under the right circumstances. Might also give us more ammunition to package with Ervin Santana midseason too -- I'm thinking something like the A's-Dodgers trade last July, where they packaged Hill and Reddick together. Could improve the returns, and/or just make us a better trade partner than a team with only a SP to offer.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect Bautista will have to settle for less than his $17.2 mil asking price, which changes the calculation. He might also be ultimately more willing to settle for less than past qualifying offer holdouts, because under the new CBA he can't be subject to another qualifying offer next winter (although that also removes another avenue of recouping the value of the lost pick). I don't necessarily endorse it myself, but I'm willing to give Falvey and company the freedom to make their own determination. If they really think a Bautista bounceback is likely, are pessimistic about Vargas/Park/Mauer (or even Grossman/Rosario), and can still execute their desired draft strategy, they should be able to do it.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    This is not necessarily an endorsement of signing Bautista, particularly at his current asking price, but a prospect acquired in July trade would probably be less "voodoo" than one drafted in June -- he would already have pro experience, closer to the majors, etc. There's also the chance that they could acquire multiple pieces for Bautista in July, as opposed to one pick in the draft. Even if they're not top prospects, I could see an effective Bautista fetching some interesting packages in July.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if they forfeited one pick, they'd still have another pick at virtually the same spot, thanks to the competitive balance lottery. And they'd still have a larger draft pool than anyone else. They could probably still do something interesting with it, but I suspect there are diminishing returns on your strategy with an additional second round pick. In the McCullers at 41 draft, the Astros third pick wasn't until 61.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Vogelsong hasn't pitched in the minors since 2010, outside of rehab assignments. He must think he has a pretty good shot to make the MLB club here?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with that analysis too. I just feel like throwing around the term "lowballed" adds to some of the unnecessary hostility toward the Dodgers around here. And on the flip side, Dave's rumor has been fueling some undeserved negativity toward the Twins, suggesting they walked away from De Leon + Alvarez. Given the widely reported facts, I don't think either side was unreasonable. There just weren't enough factors to cause them to offer much more or accept much less at this time.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    It would be the comp "round A" pick (rule is, we forfeit our next highest pick after the protected top 10). Not a huge difference, something like #35 vs #37 overall.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Was it really below market? Evidence suggests that De Leon was easily the best offer we could find for Dozier. Without a hard deadline or a credible threat of Dozier permanently going off the market, the Dodgers would not have been prudent offering significantly more than that. Hard for me to consider it "lowballing" when their offer was only "low" compared to a theoretical market that clearly didn't exist in practice. If there was any kind of real interest from other clubs, or July 31st was looming, or even if the Twins had a credible argument for pivoting toward going all-in this year, I could see their offer as lowballing. But none of those conditions were true. And calling their offer a "complete joke" in your previous post seemed to give a negative connotation to "lowballing" that you are backtracking from here. By your latest, more neutral definition, I would guess most baseball trade discussions would feature "lowballing" because relatively few trades come out of them.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll add that I don't know that the Dodgers "lowballed" the Twins, to the point where we should be offended or hostile. I think the Dodgers and Twins had discussions, and each side said what they were comfortable giving and receiving at this time, and there wasn't a match. There is nothing wrong with that.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Beltran got flipped as a DH at the deadline last year, and returned the previous year's 4th overall pick, Dillon Tate (whose stock had admittedly fallen, but still).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    To any Dodger fans in attendance: what is your club's plan at 2B, sans Dozier? I suppose you would call up Chase Utley, but I was wondering if Austin Barnes has a real shot there. Could be an interesting way to leverage your backup catcher too, and potentially free up a roster spot for a specialist (i.e. a pinch hitter). I have no idea how he handles the position, of course, just noticed that he keeps getting a few reps there.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Depends on how you define "passable", I suppose. Is a Grossman level defender really "passable" considering our already precarious pitching? FWIW, TotalZone has never really liked Grossman (-12 and -19 Rtot/yr figures preceding his -29 with the Twins last year). Combined with observation, I wouldn't be surprised if his overall metrics are finally trending toward his true talent level in the field, even if he's not quite as bad as 2016 suggested. Over his career, just in LF, he now averages -12 UZR/150, -13 Rtot/yr, and -15 Rdrs/yr.. Given the current roster, I guess I still might roll with him and hope he has another hot start and maybe you can flip him to an aggressive team at the trade deadline for something interesting like we did with Nunez and Abad. Although if another interesting outfield candidate comes available, I might rather drop Grossman and put Rosario more in the 4th OF role.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, De Leon has all 3 options left. He was first added to the 40-man for his September 2016 call-up, so he hasn't been optioned yet in his career. He was drafted out of college the same year as Mitch Garver, who just got added to the Twins 40-man this winter.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, De Leon's shoulder issue was at the beginning of the year. He wasn't shut down for fatigue or anything. He might eventually prove unable to handle a greater workload, but right now, there is no evidence that he can't. Just an absence of evidence that he can.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    A lot of posters here have been repeatedly saying they hope the new front office does exactly this (pass on trading him if very high expectations are not meant, specifically invoking the Sale and Eaton returns).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Comp picks were weakened with the move to the qualifying offet system, and even further in the new CBA. It can still be a factor in the calculation, but it is nowhere near the factor it was when we were debating trading Johan, for example (especially 2 years out).
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