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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Off the top of my head, Jepsen got Hu. It wouldn't be crazy to see a good performing reliever fetch the same haul as Nunez (Mejia). Mark Lowe got a few guys. Even Abad got Light.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    They could have looked at multiple bullpen arms and signed one, or let them battle for 1 spot in spring training if you understand 1 but are puzzled by more than that.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Go back a few posts to when we started this exchange. Remember when you picked on me about adding an outfielder? First name there was Tolleson. No mind reading required. You can pick on any individual move as not meaning much, it is the complete absence of moves that is disappointing. The whole roster was fine? No projects were available that were more interesting than the ones already on the roster or in AAA?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Ah, but he seemed to be talking about why De Leon wasn't called up earlier in 2016. "Squeezing De Leon onto the roster would have been insane" being in the past tense. They didn't add him to the 40-man until September 2016. I'm not sure what else he was saying, so I will bow out now.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Taking a $1 mil flyer on Tolleson is "bullpen spending for contenders" now?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Only after rosters expanded from 25 to 40.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, that's not necessarily my preference, I've just seen them pitching the idea, and Rasmus was a cheap bounceback candidate. My area of focus would have been bullpen targets.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Off the top of my head, I like what Tampa has done with Tolleson, and the Brewers with Feliz. Tampa with Rasmus too if we thought we needed an outfielder. Avoiding the annual "pray that he's just AAA depth" signing in Ryan Vogelsong may have helped too. Edit: Jae-Gyun Hwang was an intriguing depth signing too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Top 10 pitching prospect means among the top 10 pitchers. Not top 10 overall. (Although Sickels had him there briefly too.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Apparently a vesting option for 2018 too. We could have flipped him at the deadline, or better yet, had him available to package with Dozier or Santana at the deadline...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    If you can remember what you looked at, please share. I just perused Tampa's transactions from 2006-2014 at B-Ref and I didn't see any notable prospects dealt, period: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBD/2006-transactions.shtml I feel like Twins fans are extra sensitive here because of the Delmon Young deal, but that is not a recurring theme in Tampa's transactions. Credit to Tampa for making it happen, but I think the blame for that mostly lies on the Twins. If anything, Friedman probably got lucky after he waited that long to move Young (his flaws were on full display for a full MLB season in 2007 before the deal).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    In Tampa, Friedman didn't really sell prospects -- he couldn't afford to. Friedman's best deals were trading Garza and Shields/Davis, not over-valued prospects. I know he got the best of the Twins in the Delmon Young deal, but Young wasn't quite a prospect anymore, and I'm not sure their other dealings fit that pattern. Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce wasn't exactly highway robbery either. (Again, Jackson wasn't a prospect anymore, and he did go on to have his best 4 MLB seasons immediately following this trade.) Friedman traded Jesse Hahn and Alex Torres for a few useful players including Forsythe. But Hahn wasn't even at the peak of his value, the Padres turned around and turned him into Derek Norris the next winter. In 9 years as Rays GM, I don't really see a pattern of trades that warrant extra caution when evaluating a Dozier for De Leon proposal.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Their surplus was mostly in MLB ready SP. They quite likely figured their 2017-2018 teams could better withstand the loss of De Leon than their 2019 org health could withstand the loss of Alvarez or Buehler. Some may disagree, but it's not illogical.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton is ranked #1 as "Prospect Emeritus"
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    They absolutely biffed the Wil Myers trade, true. The Nationals really made out like bandits in that deal. But since then, the Rays have made some nice deals Moving Jepsen for Hu was solid. Erasmo Ramirez has been useful. Getting Brad Miller and Danny Farquhar for Nate Karns is looking pretty good. Still plenty of time to win the Smyly and Forsythe trades. And they still haven't moved any of their "big guns" -- I suspect they could do quite well if they finally decide to move Archer or Odorizzi or Colome. Those guys are closer to the assets that Friedman was moving in his big deals.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I too would like to see a deeper analysis on that point, although Slowey might not be a good comp -- his K% hovered around 20% in the upper minors. Times have changed a bit, but not that much -- he was never missing bats like De Leon (32.5 K% in AAA last year was his lowest mark since rookie league ball in his draft summer).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The Astros have been adding talent too, so I'm not sure what the complete ledger looks like. They've definitely been active.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think we'd all love that, but it's not too likely. The Astros got 5 years of Ken Giles, at least 2 at league minimum salary. And it's risky to wait for that kind of return when you only control the asset for 2 more years like the Twins and Dozier.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    De Leon plus Stewart is actually kind of a special case, though. Even if you could match that later by prospect ranking, the fact that they are both MLB ready SP has to count for something given the Twins situation. Just to use Dodgers prospects for illustrative purposes since we are all intimately familiar with them now, Verdugo plus White might be comparable in straight value but not as useful (and not as immediate).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless I am missing something, De Leon is pretty universally ranked much higher than Buehler. A few places give an edge to Alvarez, but perhaps they are more upside-oriented? Fangraphs FV, Law... BA has Alvarez one spot higher but no Buehler in their Dodgers top 10 so I don't know what to make of that. I have no doubt that plenty of folks prefer the upside of Alvarez and perhaps even Buehler over that of De Leon, but that doesn't mean they'd carry equal value in a trade today. That value has to balance upside and risk, and a fair component of risk is experience and readiness (not that De Leon is without risk himself, but he has more and better experience than Alvarez and especially Buehler right now). Alvarez maybe could lead a trade like De Leon could today, under the right circumstances. Not sure if the present-day Twins or Rays would have necessarily been those circumstances. I guess that gets us back to the initial response to Dave's rumor which was De Leon or Alvarez but not both. I highly doubt Buehler would carry the same value in trade as De Leon today.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Something like that, although he didn't say "lesser talent": "Jose DeLeon is really well-regarded among scouts and prospect watchers. Internally, Dodgers think Urias, Alvarez and Buehler are better." Doesn't say better what. Probably not a better talent today, just due to the experience and readiness gap. Better future value? Better odds of gaining value in 2017? Alvarez and Buehler have nowhere to go but up. A MLB ready SP prospect in 2019 is better for the Dodgers than a MLB ready SP prospect in 2017. Not necessarily a huge knock on De Leon, but it wouldn't surprise me if that was how they ordered them. I think the Twins demands would have been the same or higher, though, if you subbed Alvarez or Buehler in for De Leon. Whatever you gain in liking "stuff" more, you almost certainly lose by considering distance to the majors.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I heard the Twins Daily plug over there, so I am sure you want to make everyone listen. But the 3 guys Doogie mentions are Mike Napoli, Greg Holland, and Joe Smith. Hopefully they're looking at Holland a lot more than Napoli...
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fine, and that speaks to the inactivity of trades. But how about cutting some of these guys that no one else wants? How about dropping out some fungible 40-man parts and replacing them with more interesting projects?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Personally, I'd be disappointed if that's the case. It's not like they have to be overly worried about the on-field product to just identify an interesting reliever project or something. Still may come yet this offseason, but so far... bare minimum.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It's important to remember, De Leon was also the best chip the Dodgers really had for improving 2B and the present-day offense/team in general. Bellinger could have gotten a 2B, but losing him would likely hurt the offense as soon as they needed a LF or 1B which is expected soon. (Same for losing Urias hurting the present day rotation if you want to consider him.) Alvarez, Buehler, etc. -- none of those guys individually brings the value of De Leon at the moment, and by the time you add other prospects, those packages will likely hurt more than the De Leon-led package. It's possible that the Dodgers had a pessimistic take on De Leon too. But he was also clearly their best chip for reasons other than that. Keeping De Leon for depth this year, and trading away, say, Alvarez plus Calhoun instead to fill 2B, isn't necessarily in the best long-term interests of the Dodgers either, even if they liked De Leon just fine.
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