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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Melancon has been rock solid in that role for 5 years, though. I think Hughes is going to need the better part of 2 years to regain any real value around the league -- he's just way too fragile and inconsistent at this point.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I got a chance to go to a game inside this weekend, Sunday afternoon. It's a little weird -- you have to enter the stadium on the NW side, and then walk all the way around the concourse inside to sit on the SW side. Makes it quite a trek for a family. (The concession stand seemed pretty disorganized too, in contrast to my experiences at Target Field. We waited for 5 minutes at a register, received no service, and we left.) It did feel a little lacking compared to the Dome, although I remember the Dome feeling most inadequate during afternoon games too. I probably would have enjoyed the experience more if it wasn't ~60 degrees and dry outside.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, if they are around 59-66 wins again, and in the running for the top overall pick, there's probably very little encouragement to be derived from the season, as we've witnessed before. 75+ wins, we're probably doing pretty well. 68-74 is kind of the grey area, for me. I would need more details about how the record was achieved and how the season unfolded.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, I hope my previous post cleared up the confusion. I don't think a ~68 win season would necessarily be the worst thing in the world. It may be, but it may not be. There is enough of a young vs veteran mix on this roster that it's not clear which one would be most responsible, at this point. Heck, I could see a potential scenario where most of the opening day youngsters perform fairly well, most poor performing veterans have short leashes, and the next wave of youngsters comes up (Gonsalves, Romero, Garver, Granite, Gordon?) and might scuffle in their debuts but still provide encouragement going forward. Still may not escape ~68 win territory.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    This might be the biggest potential source of disappointment, to me. I want to see sensible asset prioritization and management, almost regardless of our season-ending record.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock, the whole "bottom five finish" started with the following comment: To which you responded, "It kinda would, actually" (be the worst thing in the world). I still don't get that. There is ample room for encouraging performances by most of our young players while also finishing under 75 wins ("the under" relative to this thread title). And once you're at 74 wins, it only takes 3-6 fewer to perhaps get the 5th pick in the draft, which could be due to any number of factors. Obviously it's also possible to craft a disappointing season in that same range -- if the young players all struggle, and we win ~70 based on good sequencing/pythag luck or fluke performances. I'm not sure either is more likely, at this point. There aren't quite enough young players on the roster to think good performances by most will easily yield 75 or even 71 wins. And there are still enough middling veterans to help hold that win total down too (the catchers, Mauer, Grossman, Park, Hughes. Santiago, Vogelsong, maybe even Gibson, and most the bullpen).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    5th worst win total in MLB: 2016: 68 (actually tied for 2nd worst) 2015: 68 (tied for 4th worst) 2014: 70 (tied for 4th worst) 2013: 66 (tied for 4th worst) 2012: 68 2011: 71 2010: 67 On average, 68 wins. Only 2 of 7 years below that.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock: Gibson was +0.6 bWAR last season. I think you are looking at WAA instead.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are stretching the meaning of key young player that's vital to our future. Kyle Gibson is 29 years old and had already used up 50% of his team control (and all of his cheap years). Yes, we'd like to see him improve in 2017, but if he doesn't, that alone doesn't mean we're doomed going forward. You've identified 7 "young" players in this post, and adding Polanco makes 8. If 5 or 6 of those guys improve, but 2 don't, and we finish around 70 wins, does that mean we are doomed going forward? (Also, Ervin Santana had 3.8 bWAR last season, only his second season ever above 3.0. He has 22.3 career bWAR in 12 MLB seasons. It's absolutely possible that he drops to 2 WAR in his age 34 season.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    74 wins, with a tiny bit of bad luck, is 70 wins and potentially a bottom five finish (as recently as 2014).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are over-estimating the number of key young players projected to contribute significantly in 2017, or under-estimating the win total that could potentially produce a bottom five finish. By my count, there are only ~6 key young players projected to start on opening day (Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, and May). Berrios should come up at some point too, but it's not clear when, and a partial season for him may only offset some DL time from the rest of the group. Chargois is nice but he's a reliever which limits his potential contribution. And Vargas would probably be stretching it as a "key young player". Last year, the Twins won 59 games while getting 6.7 bWAR from that group. They could average almost 2 bWAR improvement each and we could still finish around 70 wins and potentially a bottom five finish (70 wins had us tied for 4th worst record in 2014). I know we were unlucky with sequencing in 2016, by about ~7 wins per pythag/bWAR. But even if we get neutral luck in 2017 (no guarantee), Dozier and Ervin Santana (combined 10.3 bWAR in 2016) could easily drop ~5 WAR combined themselves.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Heck, if the pro-Santana side could produce an equally entertaining argument, I would probably endorse it!
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It happened -- White Sox are planning to release Brett Lawrie and pay him just one-sixth of his $3.5 mil salary in termination pay: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/whitesox-release-brett-lawrie.html
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Biagini in particular and Bowman were pretty good last year, in much higher leverage than Pressly and Graham were used in their rookie seasons. Hey -- Deolis Guerra stuck as a Rule 5 pick last year too! He had a little success too, again in higher leverage than Pressly or Graham. But yeah, Rule 5 is pretty slim pickings. I don't have a problem with Haley, although I do understand the concern that maybe we could have gambled on someone a little more exciting with the top pick.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    How valuable is this role when Ryan Vogelsong could also fill it? Or JR Graham himself, who would have had the added benefit of being optionable -- meaning you could swap him out for a fresh arm after a long outing or period of heavy use? Given that, it is not even clear that a Rule 5 guy is particularly good for this role -- if you have to use him for 3 innings one day, he is basically unavailable the next day, while a normal young pitcher without Rule 5 restrictions could be swapped out for a fresh arm.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Hughes and Santiago will probably get a lot of rope. Ervin obviously too, and he is capable of down years. Heck, Gibson only has 2 years club control left after this one, so I'm not sure how critical he is to the future anymore. Vogelsong might get some starts and innings. Perkins in the pen, plus Kintzler and Belisle. Even Pressly only has 2 years control beyond 2017. Plenty of opportunities to fail in 2017 for guys who aren't really part of our core going forward. I could absolutely see a solid showing from Buxton and Sano, plus a solid second half from Berrios, and this club still finishing with 70 wins.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Bottom 5 isn't necessarily that bad either. Twins were bottom 5 in 2014 with 70 wins.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Not necessarily. I could see a bottom 5 record in 2017, but 3 of the 5 guys you named being productive players (especially considering one -- Berrios -- is unlikely to spend the full season in MLB). Plenty of other points of potential failure on this club, especially the pitching staff.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    You could probably get Benintenientdodioosiodi... but not Benintendi. Seriously, though, while losing Price would hurt and I am sure Boston would explore options, they do have the luxury of Eduardo Rodriguez at #6 on their current depth chart, so I doubt they'd have to do anything quite so desperate.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    No prob. You were right that he did sit against some, but most of those overlapped with his injuries. I would guess that Molitor and Mauer have yet to have "the talk" about platoons. Too bad it's not like 5th grade, where they take the right handed hitters and left handed hitters into different rooms and show them a video that explains it all.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Other teams also bring in some younger bounce back guys, change of scenery former prospects, etc. It's a little weird that there are rumblings that the Twins have basically lined up 4 low-upside old guys (Belisle, Breslow, Gimenez, and Vogelsong) to all grab roster spots this spring.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Possible, yes. But probable, at this point? Particularly vs RHP? (Seems we're all in agreement about sitting Mauer vs LHP) For what it's worth, ZiPS and especially Steamer both project an overall hitting advantage for Mauer over Polanco. Perhaps that could be magnified by platooning too.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    He did start against a few lefties during that time -- dating to the all-star break, he faced Matt Boyd, Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Snell, Jose Quintana. He was also sitting more frequently beginning in August due to his quad issue. When he sat 3 straight games in late August, that wasn't a platoon thing, it was an injury thing. Later, Mauer sat for 16 of the season's last 20 games overall -- I'm not sure if it's particularly meaningful that he sat for 8 LH SP during that stretch. I think the transition has maybe begun, but I don't know that it has advanced to the point suggested by your comment.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Arbitration guys getting cut during spring training is incredibly rare, not just for the Twins but all around the league. The only one I can recall, for any team, was Emilio Bonifacio of the Royals in 2014 (and he was actually cut before spring training, in early February). And it makes sense -- if you have any doubts about a player at arbitration salary, you nontender them and try to bring them back at a lower price. It makes no sense for clubs to go to arbitration, guarantee termination pay, and tie up a roster spot all winter if there's a chance they might cut the guy before opening day (and zero chance at that point of retaining the player's services at a lower price). Generally I enjoy discussing baseball contract minutia, but perhaps it's a bit irresponsible if it gives people false hope about cutting Hector Santiago.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    But sending J.J. Berrios back down to AAA would be dyn-o-mite!
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