Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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Doesn't look like fatigue. His 2017 results look a lot like his 2015-2016 results.
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Well, he does have a $2.6 mil price tag now. It was probably moot once he got off to a decent start with the bat this year; absent that, I could have possibly seen him clearing like Milone did last year. Of course, I don't think it's necessarily likely (or advisable).
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Which is exactly what I said. Through 4 IP, Meyer was on pace to do exactly that (6 IP, 3 R).
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But with 2 outs, who really cares about contact? They are more or less equally likely to get a hit, no? Both have a .250-.251 career AVG. And with a man on third, any hit scores the run. Roughly the same OBP too, if you are thinking about prolonging the inning. -
Got to think Haley makes it, at this point. He only needs ~56 day active the rest of the season, and September is basically a "free" 31 days with expanded rosters. So 25 days active between now and September, and they could DL him the rest of the time. (Of course, I would have already milked his first DL stay and used the opportunity to try improving the pen...)
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Point is, it is taking up multiple spots where they only need one. Basically, the neglect of the bullpen that started this offseason is continuing in a different form. A less impactful form, sure, but let's not pretend it doesn't exist, or that the team is doing just fine in their bullpen decision-making outside their offseason FA targets.
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While he was limited to 3 regular season appearances, I don't think it's quite correct to say that Burdi "didn't pitch last year" - he pitched in spring training 2016 and returned in August for bullpen sessions and instructional league. It's not quite a "ramp-up-from-zero-after-surgery" situation. And Burdi is a reliever, with options. You could always send him back down if necessary, even if it's just to slow his usage without wasting a MLB roster spot. And if Burdi doesn't float your boat quite yet, there are a couple other arms (with options!) for whom a MLB audition could have easily more valuable the past few weeks than carrying 3 optionless mop-up guys on the 25-man roster. They're not even using the 40-man "depth" they built up in April in any meaningful way (Tepesch and Rucinski, plus the already rostered Boshers).
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Nobody is criticizing the front office for not getting "good relievers with options" (other than perhaps not calling up in Burdi). They've stocked the roster with marginal relievers without options, guys hwo aren't appreciably different than, say, Rucinski (with options). That's a problem. Like I said, they've used 3 bullpen spots the last 2 weeks, to cover what is basically 1 role. While I'm glad they've been using rainouts and off days to skip starters, they've pretty much wasted any benefit to that strategy by using the spots on Haley, Breslow, and Wilk.
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Last week, Escobar passed the 5 year mark for MLB service time, so he can now refuse any minor league assignment, regardless of whether he clears waivers. The only ways to remove him from the roster now would be trade or release.
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I'm not even sure what Hughes' upside looks like anymore. To get back to even 2015 level effectiveness, he would not only need a reversal in hard-hit percentage, he'd also need to get back to a historically low walk rate. And even that was only good for a 116 FIP- in 2015, which is pretty much Mike Pelfrey territory. And it's far from clear if he even has stuff capable of "playing up" in the bullpen anymore either.
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Well, the handcuff with relievers lacking options was entirely of the front office's own doing. And, it's only been an 8 man bullpen on paper. Haley (one of those 8, and lacking options) has only pitched 1 inning the last two weeks. Another reliever lacking options (Breslow) is a mop-up man apparently capable of only throwing 1 inning per appearance. Then they have an actual mop-up long reliever (Wilk) as yet another guy lacking options. That's basically 3 roster spots dedicated to what is basically 1 role, which could be covered by 1 reliever (or better yet, a small rotation of relievers) with options. Heck, they even just added Tepesch and Rucinski to the 40-man roster last month, both with options, and have barely used either. Seems like pretty poor planning to me, especially when there has been a clear need for trusted higher leverage relievers. At least one of those 3 spots on the 25-man should have been used for evaluating a guy like Burdi already.
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Actually, Tonkin was the only pitcher DFA'd so far.
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Mejia would be the 5th starter right now. If you expend Hughes, you would need a non-Berrios and non-Mejia alternative. Right now the only ones are Gibson, Tepesch, and Wilk... which is why I think we should be considering Duffey (and checking out other arms that could help mitigate the loss of Duffey in the pen).
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We'll actually need another startin pitcher Monday, so it might be more likely that Vargas is optioned for that. Although that starter could be exchanged for a position player on Tuesday (but Mejia could need a permanent spot too, he is only the 26th man today).
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Fister already signed with the Angels.
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It was a shakier outing again, although through 4 IP Meyer was fairly effective. Only 2 hits, 2 runs, 3 BB and 7 K at that point. But a double, walk, and error got him pulled in the 5th.
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The Angels have been pretty aggressive with Meyer since they acquired him, so it's not entirely desperation. But he could get demoted soon for Fister.
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I think the Duffey to SP argument presupposes that they would already be looking for pen upgrades. If Burdi was up a week or two ago and Duffy was staying stretched out to 2-3 innings, it would be an option now. Instead we've basically been treading water on a couple pen spots with Haley, Tepesch, and Wilk, and we're going to need a spot starter tomorrow and our only options are Wilk, Tepesch, and Gibson whether he's ready or not. (Also our only options if Mejia doesn't stick or Hughes falters more.)
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Lewis Thorpe's Return To The Mound
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Got any video of that?- 23 replies
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- lewis thorpe
- fernando romero
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Yes. His BABIP is absurdly low, so that's why he has a 2.06 FIP above that 0.59 ERA. His xFIP adds a couple runs on top of that because of the fly ball / HR factor. Primarily due to his first start, vs. Cleveland. Only 4 K's in 27 batters faced, with 13 fly balls. League HR/FB rate is like 12%, so xFIP is thinking Berrios could have given up 1-2 HR that day. Add a couple more men on base due to BABIP, and he has a 5.64 xFIP for that one outing. Second start was much better in that regard, 11 K's in 27 batters faced, with only 6 fly balls. 1.34 FIP, 2.67 xFIP. Which is outstanding.
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2017 MLB draft thread
Otto von Ballpark replied to diehardtwinsfan's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Calhoun just keeps hitting too. Admittedly it's the PCL, but he's got a 133 wRC+ there in his debut, age 22, with the same intriguingly low K rate. -
Actually, I was counting Duffey among the 3... but now I don't know anymore Belisle and Pressly definitely fell out of favor there for a while, but you're right that Pressly will probably get more chances soon, simply due to lack of alternatives.
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We could be over-rating the difference between the MLB and MiLB balls too. Just because some players think they are meaningfully different doesn't mean it's actually true. A lot of recent MLB players were wearing necklaces that they believed impacted their performance too...
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I guess Rogers? Admittedly just for limited match-ups.
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6 of Duffey's 13 appearances this year have come with the Twins trailing. By comparison, only 2 of Miller's 16 appearances this year have come with his team trailing. Only 1 of his 10 postseason games last year came with his team trailing (and that was in the ultimate elimination game, World Series Game 7). It's still early, though, so we can see how these trends develop. Definitely feels like Molitor only trusts 3 guys at the moment, and one of those is a lefty specialist.
