Otto von Ballpark
-
Posts
20,669 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
74
Content Type
Profiles
Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis
Minnesota Twins Videos
2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings
2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Minnesota Twins Players Project
2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
-
See, I'm not sure about that trade-off. Breslow isn't really offering anything right now -- he's exclusively a low-leverage reliever, and he's pretty much a short reliever too. We have a 4-22 record in games that Breslow has appeared in this season, and he's only appeared in 5 games in the month of June so far. He's absolutely not critical to our staff, and hasn't been for some time (arguably all season). If we had to have Gee, I think you could have easily designated Breslow to make room for him.
-
That's probably too high of a bar. Even if he's not healthy right now, what if he's claimed, stashed on the DL for a bit, and the velocity comes back? Even if he doesn't go on to MLB success, I'd be fairly upset with our process in that case. Or, what if he's claimed, goes to AAA this year, and is effective in MLB next year? I'd say there are a variety of outcomes that would make this an odd move. Plenty of outcomes that could help justify it too, of course. One big one that should help clarify in the next few days is whether he clears waivers or not. If he clears waivers, it will be a successful move, obviously. If he doesn't, then we'll have to watch for more data.
-
His strike percentage and swinging strike rate at Chattanooga this year is virtually the same as Randy Rosario, who was apparently worthy of a call-up straight to MLB earlier this month. Admittedly Rosario is younger, so I'm not saying they're equals based on this stat, but I don't know if the gulf should be as wide as the Twins are claiming (skip AAA vs. cut). And while the swinging strike rate "ranks 12th" (which includes some smaller samples), it's not meaningfully different than that of Reed, Romero, Jorge, etc. Admittedly up another level, but his AA swinging strike rate was better than what Berrios, Boshers, and Busenitz posted in AAA this year. Wouldn't you want to let him face more than 6 batters at AAA to see what happens there? And despite the .220 BABIP, both his ERA and FIP were solid. This and the velocity/health nugget are more of a justification for ranking him lower on the minor league reliever totem pole right now, which I wouldn't dispute (and would probably agree with). But it's still not much of a justification for cutting him in favor of Gee and Breslow after facing only 6 batters at AAA.
-
While searching for any kind of velocity reports on Melotakis, I found that he was Seth's minor league reliever of the month for April: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/twins-minor-league-relief-pitcher-of-the-month-april-2017-r5546 I'd say it's unusual for that guy to be DFA'd before the end of June!
-
Brooks Baseball had Melotakis with a 94 MPH average fastball velocity in the Arizona Fall League last year: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=608691&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&gFilt=&time=month&minmax=ci&var=traj&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1 Here's the more recent report on his velocity: http://www.twincities.com/2017/06/23/ailing-miguel-sano-sits-out-series-opener-against-indians/ As the report alludes to, though, he only faced 6 batters at AAA. What kind of velocity did he have in Chattanooga this year? Has it been consistent all season? He had an offseason oblique injury that kept him out of MLB spring training games, which probably prevented some spring fan scouting reports, unfortunately. Still, he was ready enough to be the first guy out of the pen on Chattanooga's opening day April 6th. Too bad we don't have any minor league PITCHf/x data for him...
-
No doubt that relievers should be able to throw consecutive days, but part of that is an opportunity thing. Did Melotakis tell them he couldn't go the day after coming into a game? Did they try warming him up but he had nothing, to the point where it wasn't even worth using him? Was it worth DL'ing him at that point? Did this happen every time, or was it just occasional? Looking at the game logs, I notice he did pitch with only 1 day rest a few times this season, and seemed to do just fine. 3 times he even pitched 2 innings on 1 day rest. He also pitched 2 shutout innings in 2 of his last 3 appearances at AA before his brief promotion to AAA. I'm not saying there wasn't a physical issue, but from the evidence we have right now, it's hard to judge the extent of that issue and whether it could have been the primary cause of this DFA.
-
At the same time, I think you might be drawing too many conclusions from what little we know. How long has the velocity drop been going on? All I've seen is that he was sitting 89-90 at Rochester recently, but the conservative usage dates to last year when we know he was throwing harder. Could he still be effective with that velocity? Whatever physical issue was there, it wasn't apparently enough to affect his effectiveness or put him on the DL even once, so can we point to it yet as really strong evidence he deserved a DFA before Breslow, to make room for Gee? Without even a real trial at AAA? I'm not going to lose too much sleep over potentially losing Melotakis yet, but it is a peculiar situation that is worth discussing and monitoring. Not clear yet whether his issues were a deal-breaker worthy of DFA, or if they simply made him the low man on the totem pole when the FO perceived a roster crunch. The promotion to AAA just before the DFA hints at the latter.
-
Romero probably has about 50 innings left this season, so that might work, depending on his pen role. And he's already on the 40-man, so it wouldn't hurt much to try. -
For those that say Melotakis "couldn't" go back to back days, I am not sure that is true. We never tried it, he was untested in that regard. Maybe he was unwilling, but that would probably be unusual for a guy looking to get to MLB soon. Maybe we deemed it not possible, but that would be another team evaluation that could be mistaken.
-
On the free agent question, if he finishes this season strong at closer, he probably could match or possibly beat the Neshek/Gregerson deals from a couple years ago, 3/21 or better.
-
Interesting questions. Also, he will just barely eclipse 6 years service time at the end of the season. I wonder if we could have left him in Rochester for another week or two last year and gotten another year of control? Obviously that's not usually a concern with minor league signings, but Kintzler wasn't quite a run of the mill minor league signing either -- he was a pretty effective pen piece for the Brewers who got injured, no one expected him to be a great closer but he profiled like a potentially solid setup man. Maybe he had an opt out date last year? Not sure...
-
DFA can take up to a week, so we may not know for a few more days. If we don't hear anything by Tuesday, that probably means a trade is off the table and he will be on waivers.
-
. Correct.
-
Actually Arcia is in the Diamondbacks organization this season.
-
Actually, technically, Arcia never did "clear waivers" at least not outright waivers. He was traded by us, claimed on waivers twice, then released after the season and signed to a minor league deal. Not that I am losing any sleep over him at the moment, but I hope he gets another chance. He hasn't been this productive since 2014.
-
Timeline for Hughes and Santiago?
Otto von Ballpark replied to mgiebel93's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Gee would have to consent to being optioned. Maybe he would if you told him he'd be back for the doubleheader Saturday (although I'd also plan to DFA him after the doubleheader, which he probably wouldn't be too keen about). -
Timeline for Hughes and Santiago?
Otto von Ballpark replied to mgiebel93's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Santiago is already listed as the starter for Tuesday's game vs Boston. -
Was somebody arguing that Boshers should go? I was thinking Breslow, who contributed nothing this weekend. Or don't roster Gee to begin with.
-
I'm not sure there is any evidence that Loria particularly cares about any of that. Note this was pre-Marlins Park, they probably made better gate in Puerto Rico than at home.
-
Sorry, didn't really mean to compare Melo to Raley. Just naming a random lefthander who got claimed a few times.
-
Marlins? Loria? That definitely suggests a financial incentive was at play...
-
Twins vs Cleveland, well before the rest of the schedule is even announced, I can't imagine why a split wouldn't have been on the table. Like I said, it seems like the Twins were a little too eager to step up to the plate here, so I am guessing there is a fairly direct financial benefit for them (in addition to the more esoteric benefits they are emphasizing publicly ).
-
I don't doubt that is part of it. But they could have achieved the same with 1 "home" game down there, and a second "road" game. The fact that Cleveland, with an already established Puerto Rican star in Lindor, and even lower average 2017 attendance than the Twins so far, apparently declined to move a home game down there, suggests maybe this a specious benefit on a team level. Any revenue from Puerto Rico (MLBAM, merchandising) is split equally among MLB teams, no? Hard to see this meaningfully being about the Twins brand. The primary benefit is spreading the MLB brand. I'm guessing the league pushed for this, and the Twins volunteered (perhaps with financial incentives from the league?). And I am not getting "riled up" about it, I am just discussing it. Please don't assume I am putting this on the level with contraction or anything!
-
That's FIP, my friend! Not that 2 starts is a great sample, but 3.38 ERA over those 2 starts, versus a 7.82 FIP. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=10123&position=P&type=&gds=2017-06-18&gde=2017-06-24&season=
-
This makes it easier for them to raise prices -- they can say (total) season ticket prices aren't going up, but just have 2 fewer games. I think it is fair to question their motivation here.
