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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I won't defend anything Dave says But just for fun, note that Hicks is still at a 131 wRC+ for the season. Rosario is at 121. That OBP advantage outpaces the AVG advantage. On defense, neither DRS (-8) or UZR (-5) like Rosario this season. Not sure if it is some odd effect of Buxton in CF? Hicks is at +6 and +13 by the two systems, respectively. That and positional adjustment fuel a large WAR advantage for Hicks now too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    And sure enough, Hicks hits a dinger last night! His OPS since coming off the DL jumped 65 points last night alone. His isolated power since his DL trip is .216 and his "isolated discipline" (OBP-AVG) is .100. K rate pretty much in line with his season average too. Is it your position that his .167 BABIP over the last 12 games is particularly meaningful? I think it's best just to keep an eye on his season numbers and not get too distracted by tiny samples. He's having a good year for NY, and they are still starting him in CF and batting him 2nd every day in a pennant race.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    You have laid down this challenge many times before. I think I gave you the Greinke and Scherzer counter-examples which you apparently refuse to accept. And as I previously told you, elite FA SP is a very small set. Yes, most of them go to big market teams, but Greinke and Scherzer didn't. You can't handwave them away and keep demanding more examples. I won't blame the Twins for not landing a particular elite FA SP, but they are in the revenue range where they should be able to pursue one once in a while, even if they don't land them. Especially if they don't have their own to extend like Felix Hernandez, etc. I'm not going to give them an excuse just to sit out the market completely.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Souhan and Reusse are working on columns now, suggesting Vargas should lose some height.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    "he never profiled as a great hitter" (what I said) does not remotely equate to "he profiles to a future of suckage"
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I was trying to combine a Twins and Star Wars reference... perhaps unsuccessfully, In retrospect, I should have gone with "Bombo Yett":
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure Melville will be a minor league free agent for the fourth offseason in a row in a couple months. Not sure if Monday's start was particularly urgent, from an evaluation perspective.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Only great hitters achieve a 130 wRC+ in the minor leagues? Plenty of guys post a 130 wRC+ in the minors and fail to achieve that in the majors. A few don't. Given his MLB sample to date, Vargas sure looks like he's more in the former group than the latter.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    In 2016, he was decent. Of course, it was only 177 PA. And his 2016 ISO and walk rate both appear to be outliers in his MLB career to date. If the Twins didn't have Mauer and Vargas was free on waivers, sure I'd pick him up and give him a look. As it is, he's probably best on the AAA shuttle to augment what Mauer and Grossman bring to the table. Grossman vs Vargas could be an interesting decision for 2018, if Vargas finishes strong.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Even before he came to MLB, he never profiled as a great hitter. He has 3 seasons in his pro career with more than 400 PA at one level in a season, at high-A, AA, and AAA (just last year at age 25). His wRC+ marks for those seasons are 130, 130, and 129. Maybe he's a touch better than his current MLB career 99 wRC+, but that's the range he's in.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    And you almost certainly jinxed him now.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer has a 107 wRC+ this year, 102 last year. Vargas is at 91 this year, 99 career. And given Mauer's defense, guaranteed roster spot, and perhaps his OBP fitting our lineup better, it's hard to see this as a good argument for Vargas.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    AL DH OBP is .325 this season. 4 teams are below .300.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    His career 140 game pace at AAA in 22.7 (same as MLB, in fact). About 1 more than his career MLB pace.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Doubtful he would play a full 162 games. Using the OP's 140 game estimate, Vargas would pace at just under 22. Paired with a 100 OPS+, no positional value, and next year no minor league options at age 27-28 -- I'm sure a lot of teams would pass. More on that: someone could claim him, sure. But not a lot of teams would be looking to plug that into an everyday spot. All but 5 MLB teams (including the Twins) are on pace to get more than 25 HR from the 1B position this year, it's not that impressive of a number, by itself, in modern MLB at that position. 5 AL teams (including the Twins) are on pace to get fewer than 25 HR from their DH spot too. One of those would be a likely claiming team, but not sure how much rope they'd give him.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    DFA'd means removed from the 40-man roster. Melville does have all 3 option years remaining, so it was a possibility. That they didn't bother, and DFA'd him instead of 60-day DL'ing Santiago, shows his relative value to the Twins and around the league.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB SP depth means MLB SP depth. Enns and Littell are still only minor league SP depth at this point (Enns brief MLB start notwithstanding, that was probably more of a Melville type situation given his 40-man status and their quick hook).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That's basically what I said in my last paragraph. It's not even an "if" -- they dropped Melville a day later, I am guessing it was part of the plan unless he notably out-performed Gee. Of course, at this point Santiago isn't even going to start his next rehab assignment until August 29, which is 58 days after he went on the DL. He was an easy candidate to transfer to the 60-day DL to get Curtiss up now, while still investing a start in Gonsalves. (It would kick the can down the road a bit, but odds are there will be more opportunities to clear 40-man space later -- Enns could be another 60-day DL guy.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite. First of all, nobody gets "sent to AAA" between November and March -- the only real distinction in the offseason is 40-man roster or not on the 40-man roster. But because of when he was added, Slegers can't be freely outrighted off the 40-man roster between November and March, even if he clears waivers. (More accurately, he could be outrighted before the Rule 5 draft in early December, but only if we request waivers on him and he clears in early November. After the Rule 5 draft, he can't be outrighted at all until March.) He could get waived and outrighted between now and early November, though. Seems unlikely, but it is possible. Primarily, it all means that Slegers is unlikely to be the "40th guy" who gets dropped when we sign a FA or make a trade because in most cases this winter, we'd have to trade or release him, and thus lose him, instead of simply outrighting him but retaining control.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    You'd think that, but then again, this is the organization that added Pat Dean in November a couple years ago. (That's the primary reason I am familiar with that rule, because everyone assumed Dean could be outrighted when we signed a FA.) I'm guessing they don't have very ambitious FA plans, and they feel like there won't be much of a 40-man crunch when all is said and done either.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. I wouldn't say anything would be certain. But the odds of a sweep would have been higher with improved MLB SP depth, I think. We didn't know the specifics yet, but that was part of the risk of flipping Garcia at the deadline.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    You just posted a list yourself that suggested Melville was no better than 11th on our SP depth chart but got the start because of timing/circumstance. So no, I don't think they were necessarily expecting much from him. Hindsight is not required to say they could have had similar expectations for Gonsalves. (Remember too that Gonsalves didn't deliver his first "clunker" start of the season until Sunday, after the decision to start Melville was already made. He's still a AAA novice, of course, but some of the posts including his Sunday stats as a potential justification for this decision would probably be more guilty of relying on hindsight than saying the team had low expectations for Melville.) And again I dispute the notion that Melville was a meaningfully "better match-up vs the Sox" as they are currently constructed. The White Sox as a team have solid numbers vs LHB on the season, but they traded Cabrera and Frazier, plus Davidson and a few part-timers are on the DL, etc. As far as lefty-mashers in their current lineup, it's pretty much down to Abreu and Avisail Garcia. It can be a factor, but probably a pretty minor one when debating Melville vs Gonsalves. Melville may have got the nod simply because they knew they could add and cut him quickly to get Curtiss up, if they aren't ready to make another 40-man decision quite yet. (Also assuming they are in no rush to see Gonsalves contribute in MLB this year, which seems clear.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm guessing they didn't add Slegers to the 40-man just to expose him to waivers by taking him off in October. He's actually probably safe for the offseason too, as a "draft excluded player" (added to the 40-man between August 15th and the Rule 5 draft), there are restrictions on outrighting him from November until March: http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3517 Will be interesting to see if they burn an option on him for 2017, though. He will have to be back by September 6 to avoid that. With Gee shifting to the rotation, perhaps they see Slegers as the long man come September 1st? Rochester should still have enough starters left to make a playoff push.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    There is also the matter of who is more likely to contribute between now and the end of the season. Even if Gonsalves turned in similar results to Melville on Monday and lost, I think getting him that experience could have been valuable in case we need to call on him for spot starts / long relief in September. Obviously it would have been nice to have more than 3 AAA starts for Gonsalves before late August, but that's another decision I disagreed with. And as far as the White Sox "feasting on lefties", it's really only two batters these days, thanks to trades and injuries -- Abreu and Avisail Garcia. And they went 3-for-4 off Melville anyway...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I think I figured out why Perkins might refuse any minor league assignment: service time, for pension /benefit reasons. He came into the year with a hair over 9 years service time, and I am pretty sure 10 years has some pension/benefit implications (remember Mientkiewicz hung on to reach 10 years to get lifetime health insurance for his wife?). By my calculations he needs about 20 more days to get there. If he goes to the minors, he might not reach it by the end of the year (especially if he got hurt while in the minors), and his MLB future beyond 2017 is obviously very much in doubt at this point. Going back a few years, it might have been the reason Perkins was willing to sign his second contract extension, to basically guarantee 10 years service. And to his credit, he isn't coasting toward it on the DL, he has been rehabbing and trying to come back.
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