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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd like to answer this question with the title of another thread posted today: "Does anyone remember Todd Sears?"
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    By the same token, though, a Kiermaier type deal paying Buxton $13 mil a year through his prime isn't going to be a millstone around our neck either, even if he washes out. And you have to admit there would be a benefit to paying Buxton ~$13 mil per season in his prime if he winds up providing ~$26 mil worth of production or whatever. That would be another $13 mil we could allocate elsewhere, like toward an ace. We're obviously not sure how it will all shake out, but this offseason may be our last chance to get Buxton on this kind of deal. Unless you have a better plan to allocate that cash right now, I think I would prefer making a bet on Buxton with it.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be hilarious, if they fired Farrell for playoff underachievement and replaced him with Gardenhire...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, TR waited way too long to lock up Mauer. He was almost destined to be a Twin for life, we should have been able to get something done. In 2005 after he returned from the knee injury at the latest. As it was, we didn't sign him until after he won the 2006 batting title and was eligible for arbitration.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    True. Given Buxton's struggles, there probably wasn't an extension to be had a year ago. I'm not really blaming the FO with this line of thought, just saying if there is a chance to get him locked up long-term on a team-friendly deal, it would be now, not later.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, that's my fear too. A normal player 1 year away would be fairly unlikely. My hope is that Buxton's slow start might neutralize that a bit? Then again, thanks to his signing bonus, Buxton has already pocketed about $6 mil more than Kiermaier at the same point last year...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Doug's "ties" to Boston are minimal -- it's pretty much just the ball. He only started 26 games in a Boston uniform, including postseason. No connection to Dombrowski either.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, I don't know if you can wait, even just until midseason. Simmons and Yelich were both 2 years away from arbitration when they signed; Kiermaier was 1-2 years away depending on the super-2 cutoff. Buxton might not be likely to sign a similar deal now just 1 year away; he almost certainly will not when he is only ~3 months away. If you are content with eventually signing a Dozier type arb buyout deal (a little arb discount, no FA/option years), sure, go ahead and wait. If you want the chance to get a special player on a special deal, I think you have to act now (assuming it is still even possible).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, Boston had a payroll advantage on 3 divisional foes (I notice you don't address the other one ), but those have also been pretty good teams at times. And Farrell beat them all, plus the Yankees, for 3 out of 5 years. (And Boston's high payroll is probably more evidence of GM missteps than managerial under-performance -- Pablo Sandoval, for example.) I could see the last 2 years in totality as a bit of an underachievement, but not much. They lost to a great Cleveland squad last year, and what looks like a good Astros team this year. Would have liked them to be a little more competitive in those series, but their SP struggled which was largely out of Farrell's control. And while he inherited a talented club, they finished in last place with 69 wins the year before. Farrell had to do something right to get them to 97 wins (and HFA) plus 11 more in the postseason. He's nowhere near Gardenhire playoff disappointment territory yet, even adjusting for market. Ultimately I don't think managers make a huge difference, but without any glaring errors, it seems hard to justify at the moment.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Odor was a poor defender and barely average overall bat when the Rangers extended him. Peak of 2.4 bWAR at the time. That should hardly be a cautionary tale for Buxton. Kiermaier and Simmons would be far better comps for Buxton, given their defensive prowess. Yelich too, albeit from a corner OF spot. All 3 have been solid since they signed their deals, averaging 4+ WAR per season. Obviously there is risk, but I suspect if you wait to see anything more from Buxton, this type of deal will be off the table.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    In regards to my posts upthread (about Sano, Buxton, and Rosario being just 1 year away from arbitration), it should be noted that Berrios is still 2 years away. Coupled with pitcher injury volatility, there would be seem to be the best potential to work out a team-friendly extension for him right now.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    One of those "last place seasons" was 78 wins... it's a competitive division, and he's won it twice in a row (and 3 times in 5 years). Wasn't his fault that Sale struggled in Game 1, and Price was hurt... He only had 2 seasons in Toronto, and they were a pretty "meh" team at the time (post-Halladay, pre-Stroman/Donaldson), so his records there weren't necessarily his fault.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say you couldn't or shouldn't do extensions with such players. But you're not necessarily getting a great deal. A 3 or even 4 year extension for any of these guys right now wouldn't be particularly valuable. Like Dozier, it would bring some cost certainty, maybe a mild discount, but that's it. The really valuable part of these deals is getting FA years at a discount (see Sale, Quintana, and Eaton for the White Sox as great examples, or even Denard Span as a mild example for us).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Willis was named Red Sox pitching coach while Dombrowski was still employed by the Tigers (May 2015). Dombrowski didn't move to the Red Sox until August 2015.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow, Dan Winkler. 2 full years MLB service time already, but still less than 90 days active. He spent about 2 months on rehab assignments last summer alone, so there is definitely some flexibility to get minor league time for these surgery cases. Winkler was actually pretty effective at the end of last year, and his leverage index suggests it wasn't mop-up work either. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/winklda01.shtml
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That's what I am thinking too. Even Rosario, assuming he's not a super-2 this winter, is only a year away from arbitration -- even if they get hurt at this point, they are each probably going to get a couple mil next winter. The time for discount extensions seems to be earlier than that -- Span was 2 years away from arbitration when he signed his, for example. Dozier was only a year away and didn't give much of a discount (at least he didn't sign away any FA years).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, they had to use Tomlin in extra innings in game 2. And Salazar hadn't pitched in awhile and wasn't stretched out at all. Not a lot of great choices.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    In fairness to Dusty Baker, Scherzer has been hurt recently and said himself that 100 pitches was his going to be his limit. Probably could have used some better relievers there though, although the go ahead run scored on a blooper.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Who was #301?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the problem is almost entirely batters stepping out of the box after every pitch. I don't know why that rule enforcement was abandoned so quickly in 2015, if anything it should have been stepped up further. I'd like to see the pitch clock like they have in the minors now. And this is a change that shouldn't cost MLB much -- it's game time, so they're not losing commercial breaks. Might even get a slight ratings boost later in the game (or for post-game shows). I don't think it would ultimately make much of a difference in ballpark revenue either. With break times the same, people would still make their same concession trips, it would just be slightly compressed. I guess since it's revenue neutral, MLB probably won't bother to do it. It would just upset players and probably umpires (who would have to enforce it). As a fan and former concessions worker, though, I would love it!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The Giants pitching actually wasn't that bad -- 8th out of 15 in ERA. And that's with missing a half season of Bumgarner, a full season of Will Smith, and at least a half season of Melancon (who was ineffective when he did pitch before surgery too). Plus career worst performances from Cueto and Moore. If I were them, I wouldn't feel too bad about rolling the dice with that pitching staff again. Outside of relievers Smith and Melancon, they don't have many pitching injuries to overcome. Samardzija isn't a star but he adds stability. A few decent relief performers coming back too like Strickland. Position players are the big problem -- 14th out of 15 in runs scored. Probably something similar in defense. A good defensive outfielder could go a long way for them, and wouldn't necessarily cost a ton -- Jarrod Dyson? That could push Span's bat to LF. Their pitching staff has enough potential that their position players don't need to be great -- they only ranked 9th in runs scored in 2016 -- but they do need a couple pieces. They'll need a third baseman too (don't know about Arroyo).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Moore cleared waivers in August. On one hand, that says his value is low, but on the other hand, if no one is offering much of anything, then it might not make sense for the Giants to move him. If they have to take back a marginal or non-prospect and possibly even eat cash, they may as well roll the dice on him once more (his value shouldn't go much lower, and still could recover a bit or prove useful to the Giants in 2018). If they really wanted to go that route, I suspect they would have simply declined his option and pocketed the full salary relief or invested the money elsewhere. As it is, he's not blocking anyone, and there's no obvious internal replacement.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the Giants pretty much have to reload. Prime Bumgarner for 2 more years, still near-prime Posey. Cueto was a bona fide ace just last year. It's easy to forget with how bad 2017 was, but they actually put up a notable challenge to the eventual champion Cubs in the 2016 NLDS, with Cueto and Moore pitching gems. Their oldest/worse players look like Cain, Pence, and Span, and one of those contracts just ended and the other two end after 2018. Pence could yet bounce back a bit in 2018, Span too if they move him out of CF judging by defensive metrics.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Mets replace their oldest pitcher... with an even older one. Their top prospect is an infielder too, and just made his MLB debut in 2017. They may want a short term 2B or even a veteran SP, but there is no evidence suggesting they would have to give up DeGrom for those things. (They got a fine 2B the previous winter for Jon Niese.) I don't think the Twins have enough to get Archer unless you want to include MLB talent and/or Royce Lewis.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    If there is some specific payroll number they have to get/stay under, then I suppose you could see the Giants move Moore. Maybe like the Tigers and Cameron Maybin last winter? Or if they need to free the money to pursue someone else. (In which case, maybe the Twins should be pursuing the other guy too )
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