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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there are reasons you never see deals like this. There is no relative tax savings for Darvish over a larger contract, especially not with, say, Texas or Houston. Even though the Yankees and Dodgers may be more aggressive next winter, that will likely be offset by the presence of better FAs like Harper, Machado, Donaldson, Keuchel, etc. And no decision-makers are seriously putting much weight on his 2 most recent starts. I think Darvish's slow market is being driven by the Boras clients at the top of the market this year, primarily Arrieta and JD Martinez. They are holding up the whole market except relievers. Once that clears, I think Darvish will eventually find an acceptable long term deal at a preferred destination, no reason he will have resort to something drastic like this.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Keuchel is a FA after 2018, and is also a Boras client who has thus far been unwilling to sign an extension. Morton is also FA after 2018, and Verlander and McHugh after 2019. And Cole would only be controlled through 2019 too. I could see interest in Darvish plus dealing some of the shorter term assets from the resulting surplus.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    There are a few reasonably large markets that could be in on Darvish, especially if his market price is manageable to the Twins. LAA is one. Seattle is another with a strong history with Japanese players. Here is an article from November with some estimates about "payroll room", showing there are still a few good possibilities to be the unnamed team, or even jump back into the market: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-estimate-of-every-teams-payroll-room/
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    That is a mischaracterization. MLBTR said "Of all the teams in the mix, the Twins’ payroll outlook is by far the most open (zero dollars on the books beyond the 2019 season)": https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/yu-darvish-five-teams-yankees-rangers-cubs-twins-astros-mystery-team.html The Cubs are not against any luxury tax, and absolutely have the financial flexibility to sign Darvish if they want to. As could the mystery team, if it wasn't the Dodgers. And while the Astros might prefer not to, hence kicking the tires on Cole, they too have the flexibility to do it if they want. (Rangers are likely in that group too -- any inflexibility would appear to be self-imposed, which frankly might apply to the Twins as well.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Still not sure how "legitimate" our chance is. They are apparently maintaining interest but we really have no idea if they are truly prepared to make the offer it will likely require to land him. At this point, they might just be hanging around with their Levine connection in the unlikely event that Darvish doesn't get an acceptable offer from the other 5 suitors (and the known ones ranked 1, 3, 11, and 12 in MLB revenue last April per Forbes, compared to 23 for the Twins). Luxury tax might limit the Yankees, but not the others.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    They could still get Matt Cain!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think modern MLB front offices are going to be influenced by blatant "pumping up" attempts. There are some nuanced cases where it could work along the margins, but if everyone and his dog knows that a top FA won't be signing with a frugal mid-market team, a meeting accomplishes nothing. I still think the only way Darvish signs here is if we significantly outbid everyone else. All parties involved (Twins, Darvish, other clubs) know that's unlikely.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The comment was about a "good pitcher" and presumably a starter, since the thread topic is Darvish. Despite the quantity of moves you reference, the Twins have not yet added a good starting pitcher for 2018. At best, it seems like they have added some backend competition, but even that so far is basically just Enns, and maybe Littell (although he has yet to appear in AAA, so he's probably not on the radar until the latter part of 2018).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    But, you're not going to get an ace (certainly not 4 affordable years of Archer) by dealing Gordon or Polanco plus back end rotation prospects.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    If Darvish makes his decision while in Japan, and then crosses the International Date Line, we might find out yesterday!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    For what it's worth, Gimenez is not a Twin currently, so I am not sure how effective his recruiting can be. Also, his experience with Darvish isn't that extensive. They were active teammates for only about 2.5 months back in 2014, resulting in 12 games caught. Gimenez spent the last 2 months of 2015 with Texas too, but Darvish was still sidelined from his surgery at that time. Also, they spent virtually zero spring trainings active together (Gimenez's two springs with Texas, 2015 and 2016, also corresponded with Darvish's surgery/recovery). Not to say there isn't a connection there, but it probably isn't strong enough to mean much compared to the larger factors: years/money and what kind of market he wants to play in. Gimenez can vouch for the clubhouse and come back on a minor league deal, but he can't say or do much about the Twins offer or their mid-market status.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the report! Sounds like a fun adventure indeed! What things are you doing there, apart from baseball?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    That blog says in general terms that it should take "something like a top 25 hitting prospect, a top 50 hitting prospect and a back end of the top 100 pitcher". And then they go and fudge that estimate by leading off their trade package with Keon Broxton, who is none of those things. And unfortunately, your Twins version fudges it further. Gordon is not a top 25 hitting prospect after his second half 2017, and Granite is nowhere near a top 50 hitting prospect. Tampa has no urgency to trade Archer. There is no way they bother pulling the trigger on a Twins deal that doesn't at least include one of Lewis, Berrios, or Buxton. Thus a deal is unlikely now.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    http://m.startribune.com/settling-on-a-second-baseman-twins-sign-dozier-through-2018/297472871/ “It offers a measure of security for Brian and offers the cost certainty for the club,” said Damon Lapa, Dozier’s agent. “The element that ultimately swayed our decision to move forward was that Brian did not have to sacrifice any free agent or option years and ultimately preserve his ability to become a free agent during the prime of his career.”
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Archer may be 28, but he is controlled just as long as Sano (4 years), and likely for similar money. Keep in mind, Sano's performance has been spotty the last 2 years too (combined 3.3 bWAR), and on multiple fronts (health, defense, contact). Meanwhile, Archer has still excelled at health, durability, and peripherals (7.8 fWAR over the last 2 years). He is not perfect, but if you wanted someone better / with more potential than Archer, you'd likely have to give up a lot more than just Sano. In fact, just given the relative market value of SP potential versus DH potential, I am confident the Rays would decline a straight up swap of the two, even before yesterday's news broke. This is why free agent Darvish is so appealing -- trading for ace potential is much more difficult than ponying up cash.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's another version of that report: http://m.startribune.com/settling-on-a-second-baseman-twins-sign-dozier-through-2018/297472871/ “It offers a measure of security for Brian and offers the cost certainty for the club,” said Damon Lapa, Dozier’s agent. “The element that ultimately swayed our decision to move forward was that Brian did not have to sacrifice any free agent or option years and ultimately preserve his ability to become a free agent during the prime of his career.”
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, it's not as useful as a 3 year sample, which is what you claimed to be presenting. Not that either Cobb or Lynn is perfect, and I'd want to see how the market plays out before I'd make an aggressive offer for either. Frankly I may take a pass on both.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Cobb and Lynn have histories of ERAs over-performing their FIPs, while Gibson has done the reverse. And of course in each of 2013 and 2014, Cobb and Lynn matched or bettered Gibson's career best season, so ignoring those years skews your sample. (And while "last 3" seems a logical recent sample, it is unfair to Cobb who missed virtually all of 2015 and 2016. It is basically a one season sample for him -- not clear whether the higher FIP than his career rate is really a trend or just a blip. It is certainly not a trend supported by 3 seasons worth of data yet.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. I didn't mean to imply that Duke was a worse deal than those, just that it was a little different and maybe not quite the bin the Twins should be focused on, with Rodney already under contract. Hopefully we do see some upside projects signed, but it might be difficult now that most pen spots are locked in. It seems we have about 7 guys who should be guaranteed a spot, and that's not even counting Busenitz or May.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Except for Holland, those guys all signed minor league deals in their comebacks, so there was less risk than Duke, who is guaranteed $2 mil and a roster spot already. Kintzler even had an extra year of club control remaining. I wouldn't mind targeting one of those projects, and ostensibly keeping Duke's or Rodney's spot open to do it.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind Ervin initially asked for $20 mil per year too, and a guy like Mike Leake has actually gotten $16 mil annually, Samardzija $18 mil. Probably not outlandish for Cobb to be asking for $20 mil at this point, he can come down a bit when he finds a reasonable match with a willing partner. No sense lowering his demands if teams aren't even prepared to commit, waiting out Darvish.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Darvish was great in the NLDS and NLCS, so I am not sure his WS performance should be too concerning. And 2017 was his first full year back from Tommy John, so it makes some sense that he could fade at the very end. And as a divisional opponent, the Astros had seen him a lot the past few years, so they were in perhaps the best position to take advantage. Darvish has been very good vs the Yankees in his career, which is nice. No guarantee we face them in the playoffs every year, but it would be more comforting to have Yu take the hill in such a situation than Ervin.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    There's the rub -- it's not clear that Duke is the same pitcher as he was 2015-2016. I guess $2 mil isn't a bad bet on it, but at the same time I understand those that think the Twins should be aiming higher than a bet on returning to form. (Seems like they are perpetually making such commitments in the pen, and haven't had a whole lot of success in that regard.) Personally, I don't mind the Duke signing, although paired with the Rodney signing, it does feel a little underwhelming. A little too close to past marginal vets who got locked into spots they didn't really justify based on results/trust. If they can use their remaining resources to make a serious rotation upgrade, though, it won't matter so much.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    If Boshers wasn't already on the bubble, he is there now. He does have one option year remaining, by virtue of spending fewer than 20 days on optional assignment in 2016. (He did use option years in 2014 and 2017.) I suspect he is DFA'd if they make another MLB signing without an accompanying MLB trade. Although it is possible there are no more MLB signings, and he could survive until the end of spring training if not longer.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Somewhat off topic, but is Gimenez likely coming back? Weren't they using him to recruit Darvish? I guess Gimenez could be on a minor league deal again, but he would need a roster spot on opening day (Pineda's?).
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