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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That seems low for the 2012-2013 offseason. Dave Cameron pegged it at $4.5 mil per win already in the 2008-2009 offseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/win-values-explained-part-six/ Here is an article estimating it was close to $7 mil by the time Sanchez was signed: https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/methodology-and-calculations-of-dollars-per-war/ And I have no idea where you get your range going up to 22 WAR. It was a 5 year, $80 mil contract, including the signing bonus and option buyout. Note that Greinke signed for 6/147 that winter with an opt out, Hamilton signed for 5/125, and BJ Upton scored 5/75, so it's not like Sanchez's deal was any kind of market anomaly at the time. (If you want examples of bad deals, those latter two fit the the bill. I wouldn't call the return on the Sanchez deal great or anything, but it turned out pretty close to fair.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I bet the Arizona fans feel pretty good about it, Greinke was worth 6.3 bWAR last year and helped them to the postseason. With deferred money, the present-day remaining value of Greinke's deal is 4/130. If Darvish gets something near that range, it quite likely justifies the Greinke deal, rather than pushes Arizona to get out from under it. Spotrac shows the Diamondbacks with a $109 mil payroll for 2018. They should be a lesson that the Twins absolutely can make a market rate contract for Darvish work for them. (Arizona also has a billion dollar TV deal, so I am guessing any Greinke deal would have to make sense from a baseball perspective, not as a salary dump.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if it's really folly, just reality. Players aren't robots, their performances are variable.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Context matters. $/WAR over 5 years is not the only way to measure a contract, and often it's not the best way. The Tigers signed Sanchez coming off a WS appearance. His work in taking them back to the playoffs the next 2 seasons was valuable to Detroit, even if he did not help in the last few seasons (although he was only really a hindrance in one). Nolasco was signed coming off a 66 win season, and Hughes was extended coming off a 70 win season. They were signed/extended to provide long-term rotation stability and pretty much failed at that goal completely (although Hughes' first season was very valuable, his original contract was on much different terms so it's not terribly appropriate for this comparison). No one "thinks" Darvish is going to perform like Sanchez. I believe you are the one who brought up Sanchez. Just that $/WAR isn't the best way to evaluate Sanchez's deal in Detroit, and it may not ultimately be the best way to evaluate Darvish's deal either.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I assume you mean "how many times does he pitch 9 innings" (since the 9 in K/9 stands for the innings). Workhorse Ervin averaged 6.4 IP per start last year. Darvish averaged 6.1 (and was at 6.2 before he was traded to the NL). Archer was 5.9. Arrieta and Lynn was 5.6 (again in the NL), Cobb was 6.2. For their careers, Ervin is at 6.3, Darvish 6.4, Archer 6.0, Arrieta 6.0, Lynn 5.9, Cobb 6.1. What SP acquisition would target right now, and why?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I wouldn't be surprised by another trade, but if you don't want them to be MLB backups yet, Phillips has 2 option years remaining, and Broxton and Santana each have 1. I just realized that Yelich played CF every day last year too. They could probably do Cain in CF, with Yelich shifting over to CF when Cain gets a day off, and that gives them a lot of flexibility for that 4th outfielder. Regular rest for Braun plus the interleague DH games could mean decent reps for that 4th OF too.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think that's quite the best way to phrase it -- that group of SP prospects may not all wash out. But the important consideration for the Twins right now is that the odds of that group producing even one top-of-the-rotation contributor in 2018 are incredibly low. And those odds aren't much higher for 2019 at this point either, given their collective inexperience at present (not just in MLB, but even AAA). The Twins have very little hope of augmenting Ervin and Berrios near the top of the rotation for 2018-2019 without venturing into FA or trades.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Spotrac only has them at $85 mil after Cain. They've got a lot of pre-arb players yet: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/payroll/
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That was my initial feeling too, although when I looked closer, Cain has still been bringing the value. Even without some of the big defensive numbers of years prior, he still posted 5.3 bWAR last year. Their incumbent CF, Broxton, was basically replacement level last year. Unless they wanted to trust Broxton again, or big-K-rate Brett Phillips, or move Yelich to CF, I think signing Cain is a good move. If they don't make another trade, this gives them good coverage behind an aging Braun in LF and a mortal Thames at 1B.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor point, if we're already at $110 mil with Gibson, but shouldn't that be $135 mil or $125 mil with one of these FA starters, respectively? I don't see any of them going for less than $15 mil annually, and Darvish will probably be closer to $25 mil. To the extent they have to "take less" because of market conditions, I think it will be years rather than AAV, no?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    None of those prospects listed are projected to make the opening day roster. In fact, 3 of them have yet to even throw a pitch at AAA, and the two that have appeared in AAA have a combined 8 appearances at that level, both with ERA's over 5. 2018 is likely just about getting their feet wet in AAA/MLB, like Meyer and May in 2014. You're not likely to gain a lot of information or confidence in their future ability to be top-of-the-rotation arms until 2019 at the earliest. Wouldn't it make sense to target a top starter now, to pair with Ervin while these prospects continue to advance, with an eye toward this new starter replacing Ervin as the staff vet after 2019? If not now, then when? It would be different if we had multiple Berrios types right now, well-regarded guys who have already made significant strides in MLB and should hold down a spot if not break out. But we don't -- we only have 1. We could use reinforcements, now, and it doesn't appear we gain anything by waiting a year or two.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Furthermore, I'd want to see more than a 1 year split for a player. Otherwise, comparing his stats in pitch 1-50 versus 51-100 in one season is subject to similar random variation as single-season home/road or platoon splits. I don't know where to find the wOBA pitch count splits, but just looking at opponent OPS, Darvish was actually better in 2017 from pitches 76-100 than 51-75, and in 2016, he was pretty effective all the way through 75 pitches, and in 2013-2014 he was arguably worst from pitches 1-25, etc. When you break samples up in this fashion, you're going to get a lot of results that can't be explained by any neat theory (other than random variation). Now, if the Twins have some knowledge of his mechanics or pitch movement/velocity consistently breaking down after X number of pitches, or remaining notably different after surgery, that would be worthy of concern. But we don't know that, and the samples are so small that these surface stats aren't even any kind of reliable indicator of that. The fact that they've publicly stated they are "in" on him, with his market widely considered to be in the ~$120 mil range, tells me that they probably don't have many specific concerns which would rise to a "red flag" level. At that point, it's him versus Archer versus Arrieta/Lynn/Cobb and just getting one done.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Furthermore, Ervin is 4 years older than Darvish, so having Ervin under contract for 2 more years doesn't really mean signing Darvish for ~5 doesn't make sense. In fact, it would seem an optimal time for their contracts to overlap, especially given the Twins SP prospect situation. And to those who express concern over Darvish's health and durability, but marvel at Ervin's, note that Ervin has 6 seasons of topping 200 innings in MLB, and Darvish has a combined 5 between MLB and Japan. Darvish would add a 6th in MLB if we counted postseason innings, plus a 7th finishing at 198. Ervin would add a 7th if we considered postseason and minor league innings. The only real statistical difference from my vantage point is that Darvish went under the knife for TJ -- which is obviously worthy of concern, but not necessarily a dealbreaker in modern MLB. Especially not with how Darvish has apparently responded so far (123 ERA+, 6.4 bWAR in 48 starts across 1.5 seasons since returning).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Because we can't clone 2016-2017 Ervin Santana? Also, this exaggerates the difference in their recent performance record. Darvish was every bit as effective as the great Ervin in 2016 (pitching in a pennant race no less), it's just he was returning from TJ so he missed much of the first half of the season. In 2017, Ervin was better overall, although Darvish wasn't a slouch -- 118 ERA+ versus 134 for Ervin. Both were named all-stars (Darvish's 4th appearance in 4 tries when healthy). Darvish also had the edge in FIP. Not to make excuses, but Darvish was also pitching under some unusual circumstances in 2017 -- first full season back from TJ, out of the pennant race and getting shopped by Texas (note Darvish's 2 worst starts both came in July), and then changing leagues for the first time going to LA. And for as much as he notably struggled in the World Series, he was brilliant in both the NLDS and NLCS (partially masked by LA's quick bullpen hook).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Sanchez posted 6.3 bWAR in 2013, when the Tigers won the division by 1 game (only 1 game up on the 2nd wild card too). Then he posted 2.4 bWAR in only 21 starts in 2014 when the Tigers again won the division by 1 game, and only 2 games up on the second wild card. Plus 2 solid starts in the 2013 ALCS (albeit 1 clunker in the DS, but it was against Oakland so the Tigers were destined to win that series anyway ). 2014 he was injured late in the season, so he only made a relief appearance in the DS, but it was a good one -- a perfect 6th and 7th innings protecting a narrow lead in game 2, down 1-0 in the series. For all of his struggles from 2015-2017, 2016 was the only one that particularly mattered to the Tigers overall fortunes. 3 games out of the second wild card, with Sanchez contributing -1.2 bWAR in 26 starts. Obviously not a wildly successful contract, but a pretty fair one, overall. An example of a bad one would be Jordan Zimmermann, brought in for 2016 when Sanchez was fading, but has contributed nothing thus far in a Tigers uniform, and it may have been poorly timed, as he likely won't get much of a chance to make a difference in the standings (he could still rebound enough to make himself tradeable, though).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The job of the Twins front office is not to identify the number of bad FA pitching contracts and simply sit the whole market out. Their job is to do their best to make one of the good FA SP contracts. Maybe that's not Darvish specifically, but citing Carlos Silva et al doesn't refute that. Most of us here are cueing on the fact that the FO has expressed interest in Darvish, even when it is pretty apparent what kind of contract he should achieve (i.e. $120+ mil). If the FO thinks that's a good deal to improve the team, it is their job to get it done. If they don't think it is a good deal, they should bow out of the Darvish sweepstakes and get a top SP by some other means. Ultimately, their job is to DO things to improve the team, not simply to identify things not to do. Unless you are also going to argue that there are bad trades for SP too, so we should sit out that market, and the vast majority of SP prospects fail too so we probably shouldn't bother...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    MLBTR has reported zero Greinke information for the last month: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/zack-greinke/ I really doubt they are that desperate to move him. In fact, if/when Darvish signs for a comparable amount, Greinke's remaining contract will hardly seem "over value" anymore.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It is a cute theory, but that's about it. Why would Arizona eat $30 mil to get rid of Greinke's remaining 4/130, just to sign a bad defensive corner OF for 5/125 or more? That's not saving money at all, and arguably a talent downgrade. I understand that they have explored some options with Greinke, but I would shocked if they found this proposed deal acceptable.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    With deferred money, the present-day value of Greinke's contract was considered 6 years, $194 mil. Of that, 4 years and roughly $130 mil remain. If Darvish is getting a similar deal on the FA market, I don't see why Arizona would be eating cash and taking back less than elite prospects to move Greinke. Greinke is a few years older, but with only 4 years left on the deal and coming off a 6.3 bWAR season, that helps mitigate the risk quite a bit. FWIW, Greinke has a limited no-trade which includes 15 clubs. Even if that list doesn't include the Twins, it significantly depresses his value on the trade market and thus increases the value of Arizona simply keeping him.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    No.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Greinke was worth 6.3 bWAR in 2017. Arizona will not be selling him for less (in terms of talent + assumed salary) than a Darvish FA contract.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Here are Darvish's IP ranks for his final 5 seasons in Japan: 5, 3, 16, 5, 1 Also, there are some extenuating circumstances from his MLB career. The Rangers skipped him three times in 2012, probably with an eye toward keeping him strong through his MLB debut season and postseason (it's a longer season than Japan, correct?). He finished that year with 191 IP plus 6 more in the wild card game, then threw 209 the following season. And while elbow injury / TJ surgery is always worthy of concern, it was largely a fluke of timing (or even a team consideration, delaying the surgery?) that it wound up affecting 3 seasons (2014-2016), despite a normal recovery period. Presumably the signing team will take out some insurance on the contract in case of catastrophic injury. The Rangers skipped him again in 2017 as they were out of the race and preparing to trade him, and the Dodgers were so far ahead when they acquired him they were able to skip him too with an eye toward the postseason. (He did ultimately top 200 innings in 2017, combined regular season and postseason.) I don't see much to suggest that his past IP totals should be of particular concern.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You're selling yourself short here -- each of those pitchers acquired at the deadline actually had 2 arms. So the Twins acquired 8 arms total! None of those 8 arms made our postseason roster, or contributed much of anything to our playoff push, or are projected to make our 2018 opening day roster, but there were in fact 8 of them. Don't you usually refer dismissively to players not currently contributing in MLB as "pie in the sky"?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    A large part of Lynn's "consistency" is just the fortuitous timing of his surgery. Lynn pitched the full 2015 season, then had TJ surgery in Nov. 2015 and was back in MLB for the full 2017 season. Overall, he was out of MLB for ~16 months, but he was lucky that it only spanned 1 season and 2 offseasons. Darvish was shut down with elbow inflammation in 2014, but didn't undergo TJ surgey until March 2015. (His team likely postponing surgery as much as possible because he was a bigger investment than Lynn or Cobb?) Darvish was back in MLB ~15 months after surgery, basically the same as Lynn, but spanning two seasons and only 1 offseason. He has not missed significant time otherwise. Cobb has missed a bit more time in his career, but the timing of his surgery was the worst of this group -- May 2015, after it was presumably detected in spring training that year. Cobb returned to MLB ~15 months later too, but due to the timing, it looks like 2 full seasons were wiped out. Also, I'm not sure why you'd say Lynn is most consistent in strikeouts, unless you are only looking at raw totals -- which is basically double-counting his surgery timing advantage above. Otherwise, his 2017 K/9 or K% is actually a lower percentage of his peak starter K rate (2012) than doing the same comparison for Darvish. This despite Darvish's peak K rate being so much higher.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    This is correct, Gibson still has an option year remaining, and is still 133 service days short of the 5 year service time threshold where he could refuse a minor league option. So we should have free rein to option him as late as August 10th or so. Of course, if Gibson performs poorly enough to require optioning again, he could potentially clear waivers and be outrighted given his likely ~$5 mil salary (and he can't refuse the first outright assignment short of 5 years service either). That would not only get him to AAA, it would also reclaim his 40-man roster spot -- basically what we did with Milone and his $4.5 mil salary back in 2016 (although Milone was indeed out of options).
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