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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps a comparable is Edwin Jackson. He was looking toasty with 2 years left in his deal with the Cubs in 2015, and they put him in a mop-up role for a few months, then released him in late July with a year-plus left on his deal when it became apparent they no longer needed him.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    It will be interesting to see what kind of bullpen and bench they bring north too. It could be possible (preferable?) to keep Hughes as a long reliever but use someone else in the 5th starter role.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm sorry, this still doesn't seem possible to me. That first start is a month away, and they presumably aren't skipping the 5th starter during spring training. Besides, they can and do use MLB players in intrasquad / minor league spring training games, so he could stay in MLB camp even if they wanted to get more innings for both him and Hughes. Occam's Razor suggests that they have already decided that Hughes is getting the first crack at the 5th starter spot. Nothing else really makes sense at this point, for Mejia and especially Romero.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Wouldn't you leave him in major league camp longer, though? No benefit to sending him out now -- he'd be a month removed from facing MLB hitters when he comes back to start under your plan.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    He spent plenty of time in AAA in 2016 (17 starts). Even before his MLB debut, he had 16 career starts in AAA and 23 more at AA. Seems the MLB experience was necessary to expose the problem before it could even be addressed. (Perhaps it could have been exposed and addressed earlier with a 2015 promotion to MLB?)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if Berrios is a particularly good example of that, though. What do you think was a bigger factor in Berrios' improvement in 2017 -- the extra 6 AAA starts, or learning from his 2016 MLB experience? Do you think he would have been substantially improved in 2016 with 6 more AAA starts before his call-up? The other issue is, sometimes it just clicks for a prospect. If Thrylos's report on Romero's changeup is accurate (I have no idea), Romero might be at that point.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    They are "TR guys" in the sense they are not Falvey/Levine guys. TR was at the helm for much of their development. Doesn't mean TR was in charge of Twins IFA when they were signed in 2009, as you claimed -- a fact which, if true, would undoubtedly have been reported in more places than a single Lavelle Neal article in 2017. I actually did a Google search and could not find your article. I did however find this Reusse piece from May 2017 which seems to directly contradict your claim: http://m.startribune.com/twins-international-signings-have-paid-off-nishioka-notwithstanding/424686453/ Another one from Feb. 2016, "How the Twins Found Miguel Sano" -- no mention of TR, except in reference to their failed attempt to sign Miguel Cabrera years earlier: http://m.startribune.com/how-the-twins-found-miguel-sano/368707081/
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I get that, but again, generic "back problems" seem like the kind of thing that could come back again if he's not careful. Not saying it is critical to have extra rest early in the season, but it couldn't hurt. (Assuming the alternative wasn't more starts for Hughes, of course....)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Odorizzi had back problems last season -- that doesn't seem like a binary-type injury, so maybe some precautions like extra rest when possible are in order. Lynn is going to have barely 2 weeks of spring training. Berrios has yet to pitch a full MLB season, and might be our best SP hope for the postseason. All of these guys could potentially benefit from extra days of rest as they ease into the 2018 season. (And Gibson may not be that good to warrant skipping someone else.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, opening day is in the middle of the 4th week of March, just over 2 weeks away. So this seems like a logical point to prune down to ~6 SP and start stretching them out.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I've gleaned the opposite. In any case, the Twins top 4 right now without Ervin does not seem like a great match for that strategy.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    This would be logical. Lynn is getting a late start, Odorizzi has had health issues, Berrios probably doesn't need to be pushed, and Gibson may not be worth pushing. I think they can reserve the option to skip someone and that can be a good thing, but if they are using it to justify giving Hughes a chance that his diminished stuff may not warrant, that is a bad thing.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    If Mejia does well, then don't skip him. We're not required to use a 4-man rotation, and in fact it is a questionable way to use those off days considering the group. If Mejia doesn't do well, then consider that he's not in that precious of a prospect development spot anyway. He is almost 25 years old, has almost a full season of MLB service time already, and 2018 could be his last option year (another potential consequence of preferring Hughes?). Not sure if we really need to be concerned about skipping him a few times, if we so desire.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I get skepticism about innings limits, but I think that ship has sailed. These pitchers are big long-term investments for clubs. Best we can hope for is a fairly flexible limit -- aim for 150 but be willing to stretch to 160+ as circumstances allow.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Or for the optimistic among us, winning the division vs. going to the wild card game (or hosting the wild card game vs. playing on the road, etc.). I am not sure how the relief staff will shake out, but I think I might prefer Mejia in the 5th spot, even if he gets skipped a few times, and Hughes in long relief. Or if one buys into the Romero hype train, skipping him a few times would be a way to manage his innings, aided by having a long reliever available to soak up innings behind him if desired.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I didn't mean to suggest Romero would be as good as McCullers or worthy of a postseason rotation spot as a rookie, but I was just leaving room in the plan for that possibility unfolding.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct. That ties into the 20 days on optional assignment requirement to use an option year. Just like MLB service time, those days don't start counting until MLB opening day, even though players can be optioned before that point.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Then it shouldn't be too hard for you to cite again. Seriously, I have never read that TR was "in charge" of IFA during those years. This article, for example, talks to a lot of Twins front office folks about the Sano signing and paints a very different picture -- that the culture previously established by Terry Ryan was very evident (and was even cited by Sano's agent), but TR himself was not involved in process, either in targeting the player, securing the financial commitment from ownership, or actually finalizing the contract: http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2015/09/the-story-of-how-the-twins-landed-top-prospect-miguel-sano/
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you have a cite for that? I am pretty sure TR was in a more generic advisory position during the Smith years. I've never seen the claim that he was "in charge" of anything as large as IFA during that time.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually this offseason highlights the readily apparent problems with the Hughes extension. Just like how everyone loves Lynn with the flexibility and low risk of his 1/12 contract versus, say, a predicted contract of 4/56, we still had Hughes on a 2/16 deal coming off his very good season, but we tore that up for a 5/58 deal instead. Not impossible to justify, nothing that was going to sink the franchise or anything, but still a questionable move.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    While SP prospects can and do contribute out of the pen, I'd like to see us aim to allow Romero to contribute in 2018 as a starter if necessary, through the end of the MLB season and into a potential postseason. As an example, Lance McCullers Jr. was coming off similar low innings and inexperience entering 2015: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mccull002lan&type=pgl&year=2015 They started him slowly in the minor leagues, promoted him in May, demoted him for 2 weeks of rest in August, and then let him finish the season in MLB and in the postseason rotation. Wound up with 125 IP in MLB, 35 in the minors, and 6 more in the postseason. The Twins could follow a similar pattern with Romero in 2018, perhaps a little more conservative with a target of 150 IP before any potential postseason innings. Obviously this wouldn't be locked in stone, but if we start out with this template, it is still easy to shift to other plans as the season develops -- leave him in AAA if he's not ready, or shift him to the pen, or shut him down. But if you start out with one of those other plans, it becomes almost impossible to even have the option of Romero starting through September.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The Sanchez guarantee was indeed strange, even if it was on the margins of roster and payroll. He had minor league deal, nonroster invite written all over him. And he signed right at the same time as we acquired Odorizzi, and we knew about the slow market for Lynn/Cobb, so it's not like we were that desperate at the time.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    He'll be eligible for Rule 5 after the 2019 season unless we add him to the 40-man roster, and there's nothing we can do about that. But once he's on the 40-man, he could possibly be eligible for a 4th option year because he's not spending full seasons active in the minors.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Nolasco might not make it at all, unless another Royals starter gets injured this spring. Although the "rebuilding" Royals still have the toasty Kennedy and Hammel making significant money this year, and the Royals were 1-7 behind them against the Twins last year.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    We had the privilege last June and didn't do a whole lot with it, although it was a win for us: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ANA/ANA201706040.shtml
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