Otto von Ballpark

They're probably looking to improve at the spot anyway, but the White Sox starting catcher actually bested ours in 2014 rWAR (and is younger and cheaper with only year-to-year commitments for the next 3 seasons). Similarly, their third baseman's stats actually look not dissimilar to our 3B at the same age (Plouffe two years ago, although I will grant Gillaspie looks less likely to improve defensively). They've got an exciting young free swinging Venezuelan in one of the outfield corners... sound like anyone else we know? (Admittedly they need their own Torii Hunter for the other corner and/or DH.) And they've already dropped the 3 worst performers from last year's bullpen and replaced them with two guys from the top of last year's K/9 leaderboards. Again, they are far from perfect, and I imagine they are still looking to add a bat or two (or three!). But they've got a WAY better pitching staff in the immediate future, and roughly equal total future contractual commitments. The main Twins advantage is indeed "farm system" which is important but feels a lot less dependable than an existing MLB talent advantage. In a hypothetical world where a genie offers a complete organizational trade, you'd have to be tempted, right? Sale, Quintana, Abreu, and Eaton are four of the best in the game right now, and all cheap and controlled for 4-6 seasons. Seems like the Twins, even with the farm system advantage, would be lucky to be in a similar situation as far as top-end talent and control in the near future.

The White Sox are actually at about $104 million estimated for 2015 right now. Before trading for Samardzija and signing Robertson, B-Ref actually had their projected payrolls lower than those of the Twins for 2015, 2017, and 2018. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2014-payroll-salaries.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014-payroll-salaries.shtml Even with the latest acquisitions, they are still within ~10% of the Twins projected payroll for those seasons, and it is less concentrated than that of the Twins (Mauer).

First of all -- the five-year plan seems an odd way to put this. Sale and Quintana were top 10 pitchers in MLB fWAR last year, and they're both young and signed cheaply for the next 5-6 seasons. Depth is nice, but I'm not sure compiling a list of mostly B-/C+ prospects from the low minors really closes that huge gap. Not to mention that there isn't anything precluding the White Sox from adding to that plan over the next five years, just like they did yesterday (adding #15 pitcher in 2014 MLB fWAR).

Dunn. And if we're counting Zach Duke's ~$5 mil AAV on one side of the ledger, it seems only fair to include similar yearly salaries they are shedding in the form of Lindstrom, Beckham, De Aza, and Downs, not to mention Bellisario and Konerko close to ~$3 mil each.

They don't really need future luck to have a meaningfully strong rotation -- they've got one at present. Sale, Quintana, and now Samardzija. I'd argue that even with TR's guidance, the Twins draft-and-develop approach is probably more dependent on "luck" (with less yearly breakout potential) than the White Sox more aggressive approach.

The White Sox obviously aren't perfect, but I like that they are never content to accept 4-5 year rebuilding plans (even if they are unlikely to win a pennant in that 4-5 year window anyway). They've been really aggressive, even in the draft (Sale, Rodon), and while not every move has worked out for them, I have never gotten the impression that any of their failed moves have really prevented any other significant moves.

Comparing relievers by W-L, ERA, Saves, and FIP is almost certainly worse than paying $40 million for a relief pitcher. I probably wouldn't have done it, but the Robertson deal looks much better than the Nathan extension from 2008. Heck, many of us (probably not you ) consider the Perkins deal to be team-friendly, and he's guaranteed almost $25 mil over the next 4 years (albeit with an option). I wouldn't make a practice of paying big money to relievers, but making an exception to target a fairly young, big K guy like Robertson in a year when your first round pick is protected doesn't look crazy to me.

Is he fully healthy yet? He couldn't stick in a pretty decimated Texas rotation this past season, so I can't imagine anyone is too high on him at the moment, or it's still a fairly dicey question of health.

Much like the Hunter to Span dynamic didn't actually manifest itself at all in Span's performance until after Hunter left, Torii Hunter didn't really click as a viable MLB hitter until the year 2000. From what I know of Puckett's life after retirement, he probably wasn't really active with Hunter at that point. No doubt that Puckett was probably a great friend and role model to Hunter, and Hunter the same for Span, but I think the perseverance/performance effects of those "mentorships" are overblown. Hunter and Span were both first round picks and neither was that old or close to washing out when their performance level finally clicked enough to stick in MLB. That doesn't mean such mentorship isn't a good thing -- I am sure it is, it's fun to read about, and it should be encouraged. But it almost certainly shouldn't dictate player acquisition and roster composition to the extent that the Twins seem to think it should.

Dozier, May 28 thru end of season 2013: 119 wRC+. Dozier, full 2014 season: 118 wRC+ The shape of the production changed a bit in latter half of 2014, but this level of performance is just fine for Dozier's "blossoming." Remember, he was never a star prospect. And I think those were adjustments he had to make in MLB too, not AAA.

Milone's 2014, especially the Twins portion, hurt his value, but I don't know that it would have taken too much more than him to equal one year of not-so-cheap J.A. Happ. A marginal prospect, perhaps? I saw a lot of rumors about Saunders being shopped, and none mentioned the Twins. I think the Twins had their sights set on their #1 outfield target from day 1 this offseason, unfortunately.

League average ERA was notably under 4.00 for basically Kaat's entire career (once even below 3.00). League average ERA was notably above 4 for Radke's entire career (once an even 5.00 too).

Generally I agree, but TR has been pretty open, direct, and accurate with his public statements recently.

On the subject of other teams rumored for Hunter's services, it is interesting that Seattle and Texas (and Kansas City, whom I heard mentioned) were among the worst offenses in the league in 2014, and Baltimore was losing both a starting OF and a DH in free agency (KC is losing guys at those two spots too). The Twins had the least compelling reason, from a performance standpoint, to sign a 39 year old, ~110 OPS+ corner OF.

When they announce that Hunter is taking over RF, that significantly reduces the likely possibilities that can happen between now and March. It's basically either Arcia to LF, AAA, or traded.

I think I just read a TR quote that he's going to focus on pitching now. And so far he's been pretty forthright in these matters.

My Facebook feed is blowing up with positive reactions to the Hunter signing, so it appears we are in the minority.

I imagine that perhaps other offers were not forthcoming, as other teams waited for their own Plan A/B/etc. at the position, and the Twins made a big take-it-or-leave-it offer early like they did with Nolasco.

Berardino says the Twins won't offer Hunter more than $5 mil for 2016.

It's not a matter of disbelief -- it's that these kinds of statements are very common in pro sports. I am not sure they are particularly meaningful in the context of "mentorship" being a top priority for player acquisition. Hey, look -- Mike Trout likes Vernon Wells too! http://halohangout.com/2011/06/21/tuesday-twitter-stalking-mike-trout-and-vernon-wells-are-tweet-buddies/ (Wells is a free agent too, by the way!)

I'm not sure one or two routine misplays make a guy worst in the league in UZR. Also, many players can probably make a few outstanding plays to balance a couple botched routine ones. Hunter has probably done that for most of his career. If he started failing to do that the past 2 years, at ages 38 and 39, isn't that notable?

Most ballplayers are pretty complimentary to teammates in the media. Without more detail, I am not sure I want to read that much more than that into these comments about Hunter. For all we know, Torii recommended him a good barber in SoCal, or helped him set up a Roth IRA.

Sorry, I meant ~110 OPS+. Our whole lineup was basically that last year. Some might regress, true, but I don't think another hitter at that level with no upside and questionable defense was our top priority.

You don't even need metrics to think this is a bad idea, defensively. Dude is turning 40 next year. And while he has been a steady hitter, he's not a high upside one -- was this team's top priority really replacing Willingham's 110 OPS+? Didn't we have a lot of thse hitters last year?

I didn't mean it would fully deter them, but it takes some of the steam out of what is probably a marginal upgrade. Remember we had to twist arms to give away Morneau.