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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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Week in Review: Stumbling and Grumbling
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Probably not on its own, no. (Keep in mind I have no problem with Rodney.) Although it would be refreshing to see a ballplayer point down to the ground for a change, acknowledging the contributions of Hades and the underworld.- 63 replies
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- ervin santana
- miguel sano
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Then you give him a drug test. And if he passes, you give him a lucrative offer to be player/trainer.
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Week in Review: Stumbling and Grumbling
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
FWIW, Oakland claimed Rodney for middle relief. The M's picked up Colome for middle relief earlier this year too. I am not an expert on their roster, of course -- it could certainly be that they just want a starter. But Ervin doesn't look particularly appealing yet.- 63 replies
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- ervin santana
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The Marlins wouldn't offer it. Seriously, they don't really need payroll relief anymore. And neither of those contracts is particularly onerous for them (both expire after 2019).
- 28 replies
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- eduardo escobar
- eddie rosario
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I'd exclude Nunez -- but if we lose out on all of those guys and others, I'm not sure it particularly matters whether we get Forsythe. That would probably be a sign of a bad offseason for the FO. Forsythe seems like he will be fairly interchangeable with a few other suspect infielders.
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Week in Review: Stumbling and Grumbling
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Maybe they're looking at Ervin, and Shields, and Estrada, etc. Acquiring one might preclude acquiring a different one, so they probably can take some time to evaluate. If it's just depth, and Erasmo Ramirez is capable of similar production at the moment, it's not exactly urgent to acquire one of the other guys. FWIW, they could probably use bullpen help too, especially if Ramirez is starting, and they apparently passed on claiming Rodney just a few days ago. So I am not quite sure what parameters they are working under. Is it? That's not what I've been reading here. Things aren't always so simple and linear.- 63 replies
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- ervin santana
- miguel sano
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There are other ways of adding flexibility, or preparing for various possibilities, than adding Forsythe. How about Escobar? Jed Lowrie? I'm not seeing a financial reason why we'd have to go cheap with this spot either.
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I know you're joking.... but Murphy has more offensive upside than Mauer, he's a couple years younger, he's generally been healthier. Plus some versatility to be able to cover 2B if needed. I think you could justify it to the public without declaring martial law.
- 28 replies
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- eduardo escobar
- eddie rosario
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True, although May will finally be out of options next spring, so he can be reasonably confident he's not going back to Rochester anymore (he would be claimed if we tried to waive him). Not that it gives him much leverage to demand starting or anything. And FWIW, while he has spoken of a preference for starting in the past, he has moved to the pen in 2015, 2016, and now in 2018 without incident as fas as I know.
- 52 replies
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- kyle gibson
- tyler austin
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Meh. I'm not going to move Sano off 3B just because I can play Logan Forsythe there. And I'm not going to start my utility guy more than necessary just so I can keep Logan Forsythe "fresh" at 3B for that possibility. I'd rather aim for a better 2B, or a better 3B, or a better 1B. This team needs better players with more upside than Forsythe.
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Has May expressed that recently? I wonder if he has changed his tune at all after his surgery. At the very least, he might be sick of the back-and-forth, which another return to starting now would represent.
- 52 replies
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- kyle gibson
- tyler austin
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This is the problem, I think. It's pretty much all BABIP at this point. Forsythe's isolated power (ISO, SLG minus AVG) since the trade is actually lower than what he posted in LA -- which was already his lowest mark since his rookie year 7 years ago (in Petco Park, no less). I think he needs to demonstrate some kind of power to generate any kind of real interest for September or for 2019. A barrage of singles isn't going to attract any buyers.
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If you want an easy way to compare, you can create a custom player list for the leaderboards at Fangraphs. Here's a link for Dozier and Forsythe just since August 1st that will automatically update every day through the end of the season: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=&strgroup=season&statgroup=2&startDate=2018-08-01&endDate=2018-11-01&filter=&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=false&players=9810,7185&pg=0&pageItems=30&sort=22,1 If you are concerned about Forsythe's BABIP, you can also compare their expected wOBA by Statcast data. Here's a link for that: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2018-08-01&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=572821&batters_lookup%5B%5D=523253&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results League average xwOBA right now for 2018 is .327. Since the start of Statcast in 2015, Forsythe is at .328 and Dozier is at .319: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C2017%7C2016%7C2015%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=572821&batters_lookup%5B%5D=523253&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results
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Gibson's first 47.2 innings at AAA, age 22-23, featured the same 21.7% K rate I quoted earlier (which was just his age-23 season there), versus a league average of 19.7%. In Stewart's first 45.2 innings at AAA, age 22-23, his K rate is 18.0% compared to a league average of 22.0%. There's no question that Gibson had a stronger baseline for missing pro bats at age 23 than Stewart.
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Murphy's 2B defense has always been suspect. What about signing him for 1B, or DH? His bat could still play there -- his wRC+ marks in 2016 and 2017 were 155 and 136, respectively, and after a slow first month back from knee surgery this year, he's got a 161 wRC+ over the last 30 days too. Nice low K rates as well, which might be welcome in our lineup.
- 28 replies
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- eduardo escobar
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Outside food is definitely allowed. Generally no outside beverages, though: "Sealed, bottled water 32 oz. or less, and soft sided single juice or milk containers for children are the only outside beverages permitted into Target Field." https://www.mlb.com/twins/ballpark/information/guide I bring empty an empty water bottle and fill it up at a water fountain, and/or get a free soda coupon at the Designated Driver booths by sections 130 and 222.
- 28 replies
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- eduardo escobar
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Week in Review: Stumbling and Grumbling
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Well, he was placed on the DL for this back in July, at which time he said it was "kind of a chronic thing" (as diagnosed by the physician Dr. Dre, I am sure ). https://www.twincities.com/2018/07/12/minor-hip-injury-lands-twins-morrison-on-10-day-dl/- 63 replies
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- ervin santana
- miguel sano
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Week in Review: Stumbling and Grumbling
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I guess the thinking was, there wasn't a better alternative earlier than to hope Morrison comes around. But I agree, I probably would have used it as an opportunity to shake things up no later than mid-June somehow.- 63 replies
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- ervin santana
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Week in Review: Stumbling and Grumbling
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To be fair, we didn't have a double-digit deficit when the trades started -- we were 7 games back when the first trade went through. Still not that close, but you can perhaps see how a player like Ervin might think it wasn't as cut-and-dried of a decision as you suggest. (I think Ervin just threw out "10 games back" off the cuff because it was a nice round number, I wouldn't pick on it too much specifically.)- 63 replies
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- ervin santana
- miguel sano
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We actually don't have too many guys who need to be added to the 40-man. I think Graterol and Alcala don't need to be added until after 2019, contrary to Roster Resource. Here's the list I compiled in another thread: Gordon Wade Wiel Arraez Jay Stashak Vasquez Stewart and Reed were the only "bubble" guys I saw beyond that. So I think Stewart's 40-man roster spot is safe into 2019, even if he's not deemed ready for the 25-man.
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At age 23 in AAA, Gibson had a 21.7% K rate, versus a league average of 19.7%. Gibson's trouble missing bats really only cropped up when he reached MLB, and that's what took him a few years to overcome. Stewart's trouble missing bats has been an issue since A-ball. Obviously I won't write him off based on one start, but it wouldn't surprise me if it becomes even more of an issue as he makes the jump to MLB. But with Mejia out, and Erv's lack of a future here, there is opportunity for him to log some MLB innings this year and find out. (Edit to add: Gibson also had some durability that was able to sustain him during that long adjustment process in MLB. College draftee, obviously, but he posted 152 innings in his first pro year, and 152 again in his first full year back after TJ surgery even with an early shutdown. Stewart has yet to reach that mark, and he's in his 5th full pro season with no surgeries.)
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Week in Review: Stumbling and Grumbling
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not sure. Erasmo Ramirez might be a better bet for Seattle right now? He just shut out Houston for 5 innings yesterday, on 79 pitches. (He's working his way back from injury himself.) But yeah, if another starter gets hurt for them, they could come calling. Or if Ervin finally shows some better stuff. And honestly, if it's just to plug a hole as a 5th starter somewhere, and they don't care about putting Ervin in their postseason rotation, the August 31st deadline wouldn't really matter either.- 63 replies
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- ervin santana
- miguel sano
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That's not a fair reading. If I said "I think Miguel Sano's future is at 1B or DH. He missed 3 plays at 3B today." You wouldn't assume that my only supporting evidence is his play today; it's just the latest evidence. Of course, it is fair to question that evidence too. I just thought it was phrased a bit unfairly.

