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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't want anyone to figure out how to hit Duffey's curve, even his own catcher. Too dangerous if that information leaked.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I noticed Murphy has had a notably higher K% in his MLB time so far (as compared to his minor league rates). Is that not connected to this curveball trouble? I'm still worried about whether the Twins are the team to help him bring that K% down...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that Achter was chosen by the team with #1 waiver priority (Philadelphia). Pinto was chosen by the team with #8 waiver priority (San Diego).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Did I miss something on Jorge? He finished the season for Cedar Rapids, was unaware of an injury situation.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    But both Rosario and Landa will also be 22 next and still haven't pitched in high A ball...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure I get the Dean thing, I know Jeremy and Seth say the Twins like him, but how much of that might be an overreaction to losing Gilmartin? Rogers, O'Rourke, and probably Darnell are all ahead of him for left handed relief duty, probably Rogers and Darnell for starting duty too (not to mention Milone). Rosario seems like a stretch too, 65 inning in A-ball (and not high-A), 6.8 K/9, 3.88 ERA (5.54 if you include unearned runs, admittedly more frequent at lower levels). No real experience pitching out of relief yet either.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    #MNTwins add (RHP) J.T. Chargois, Yorman Landa, (LHP) Pat Dean, Mason Melotakis, @trogers34, Randy Rosario & (OF) @walkoff28 to MLB roster. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/667786537292042240 (those are the Twitter handles of Taylor Rogers and Adam Walker, for those wondering )
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know what our FA budget is exactly, but a single ~$5 mil AAV commitment for the next 2-3 years probably doesn't materially affect it. While they don't pitch many innings, 2015 showed us how important they are and how difficult it can be to add outside upgrades midseason.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Also Thornton looks like he's been a pretty strict LOOGY the past few years. Not a bad thing to have, but hard to be a difference-maker in that role. If you are willing to guarantee $4 million for one year of that (particularly at age 39 with the collapse risk that entails), why not just add $6 mil and get 2 years of Lowe, or $11 mil and get 3 years of Madson? Our safest bets for immediate internal bullpen upgrades right now would probably be Rogers or O'Rourke emerging in a strict LOOGY role anyway. Judging by his age and own trade history, Thornton might prove more difficult to move midseason than the above FA names too.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Lots of things have more potential than continuing to use Nolasco in the rotation.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not bad, but if you are looking to guarantee that money for a reliever in 2017 anyway, I'd rather get an extra arm of that caliber for 2016 in the process while we wait for some of these internal options to actually arrive (none are likely ready to contribute to the MLB pen from day 1 in 2016). Actually, I'd be tempted to lock in Jepsen to 2/10 now and still get another multi-year FA from my list above. Even if some internal options emerge so we don't necessarily need him, having Jepsen on effectively a 1/5 deal for 2017 would be an asset that we could likely trade.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    So what does the community think of these FA options, on these MLBTR predicted contracts? (Lowe's contract I actually just inferred from his MLBTR rank.) O'Day 3/22.5 Soria 3/18 Clippard 3/18 Bastardo 3/15 Madson 3/15 Kelley 2/12 Sipp 3/12 Lowe 2/10 Personally, I like Sipp and Lowe, although almost any of these would be justifiable and easily affordable offers in my book. Given the rumored demands around O'Day and Soria right now, and the resulting delay as they wait out the market, I'd probably also offer Madson too, and possible Kelley and Bastardo, in an effort to get someone locked in quickly.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    No problem. I am not arguing your personal theory, but your article asks multiple questions and the framing of those questions matters. From reading your article, one might conclude that there are no options between $20+ mil guarantees and one year deals, as you really don't lay any of those out for the community to discuss. Fortunately I am here with an absurd volume of posts on the topic to fill the void though! Thanks for getting the ball rolling, bullpen is obviously a great topic.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Signing a single Thornton or Cotts level reliever largely means will we start the year with our post-August 21st 2015 bullpen. Which means another Perkins injury, OR May needing to go back to the rotation, OR minor league options not stepping forward again leaves us perilously close to another pen disaster and trade deadline desperation. Personally, that's not an acceptable way to address a problem that was plainly evident for a season in which you expect to contend. Certainly it's not worth resisting even a modest $12 or $15 million commitment to a FA reliever. Those options need to be discussed, and thoroughly.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If you look at my posts above (last year's FA setup contracts, and this year's predictions), Jepsen almost certainly wouldn't get more than 3/15 on the open market. If they decide to re-sign him next year, that's fine, but you're not going to get a meaningful discount on that already modest contract by extending him a year in advance. Guys who were quality relievers last year generally don't settle for one-year contracts, so the Twins have a unique opportunity to view Jepsen's final year of control as that special case, while still adding another quality FA arm this winter. Giving them the flexibility of another year to evaluate Jepsen and our internal options (and Perkins, given his recent ups and downs).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I didn't know the Handbook predictions. They seem high, given past history -- 4 setup guys in one offseason getting $20+ mil, when arguably 0-2 setup guys have reached that total in the history of free agency? (I know Linebrink got $19 mil in a terrible deal by the White Sox, can't think of any others that pre-date the MLBTR FA Tracker starting in 2010.) Also there are at least 4 more guys who will likely get multi-year deals this winter for less than that, so $20+ mil is hardly a requirement for the Twins to venture down that road even if those 4 command those prices. Not trying to be picky (although I know that I am ), I just think there are very interesting names in the multi-year FA reliever market that I'd like to see discussed and debated, and over-estimating their cost tends to preclude that discussion. The only one you mention in the article is O'Day, for example, when I think the entire group of eight I listed above is worthy of discussion. EDIT: I do see you also mention Mark Lowe, albeit very briefly and presumably on the assumption he'd sign a one-year deal.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Here was the multi-year FA setup market last winter: Gregerson 3/18.5 Uehara 2/18 (was actually a closer) Duke 3/15 Romo 2/15 (had lost his closer's job in SF) K-Rod 2/13 (closer but had spent a few years in setup roles) Neshek 2/12.5 Hochevar 2/10 Grilli 2/8 So MLBTR's predictions for this year seem in line with past results.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Option #1 as you described it in your article ("someone who will cost three years and $20+ million") is right now basically limited to O'Day. He really shouldn't get an option all his own! I'd suggest changing the article wording, dropping your threshold to $15 mil if this is how you really feel (and perhaps changing the word "will" to "could" as several notable FA relievers are currently predicted to land closer to $12 mil). Otherwise it seems like you are presenting readers with a false choice. Madson wouldn't be my choice #1 either, just thought MLBTR's prediction for him was notable. See my post above for a larger list of options.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    In case you can't tell from my above posts, to answer the question in the article title, I would recommend a FA signing. Here is what MLBTR predicts for setup men among their top 50 FA: O'Day 3/22.5 Soria 3/18 Clippard 3/18 Bastardo 3/15 Madson 3/15 Kelley 2/12 Sipp 3/12 And Mark Lowe makes their "honorable mention" list without a predicted contract, presumably around Kelley/Sipp level. I would take almost any of those guys on those deals (although I'm not crazy about Clippard or Soria).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Another overlooked factor is that Jepsen is a free agent after the 2016 season. A free agent signing this winter would simply overlap Jepsen for a year while our internal options are still trying to reach MLB. If one emerges to claim a spot by the end of the year, they could slot into Jepsen's spot for 2017.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It is disingenuous to suggest those are their only two options on the free agent market. Non-closers have never before gotten a $20 million guarantee in free agency (searching back to the 2010-2011 offseason using MLBTR's FA Tracker), with the possible two exceptions of League and Broxton who got $22.5 and $21 million respectively a few years ago, although both had recent closer experience and were deployed (albeit briefly) as closers by their signing clubs, and maybe Miller last winter although he was crazy dominant and signed to replace Robertson as the Yankees closer. $20+ million is nowhere near the standard for multi-year FA set up men. MLBTR predicts only O'Day will get that much in this year's market. Plenty of guys like Mark Lowe and Shawn Kelley, to name a few, will almost certainly fall well short of that mark. MLBTR actually predicts Ryan Madson to land with the Twins for 3/15. That was the argument last year too, and arguably none of the big upside options are any closer to being viable MLB relievers a year later. "The volatility of relievers is such that anything more than a one-year contract is quite risky" has yet to be borne out by any data. When the market is primarily based on deals around 3/15, it's almost impossible for them to be "quite risky."
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like the DL could be the new Rule 5 strategy, especially with TJ surgery pitchers like Melotakis -- spend half the year on DL (easy for for surgery recovery), then active for 2 months and you can effectively shut him down with expanded rosters for September and he's met the 90 days active requirement. If he's not physically ready by July, or you don't think you can spare the 25-man spot at that moment, you can leave him on the DL longer and make up for it with a little extra time on the 25-man to begin the following season.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That Cub Reporter site seems to have everything, I don't usually look too far beyond that.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't that what was said last year? And how did our bullpen work out? None of these guys even have a relief appearance in AAA yet, much less MLB. (Arguably none of them have yet to dominate AA either.) Even assuming one of these guys changes course into a fast riser who forces their way up in 2016 and doesn't experience much initial MLB growing pains, by that time our season could have already suffered irreparable harm via the bullpen. A mere 3/15 or thereabouts FA deal might easily get you another Perkins or Jepsen who you call "cornerstones". How is that not a good chance to take for the 2016 Twins pen, especially after the way our 2015 pen (and supposed minor league reinforcements) unfolded? Most of us thought a second addition to Jepsen was necessary at the trade deadline anyway (and we were probably right). And Jepsen himself is a full free agent after 2016, so you could think of the signing as Jepsen's potential veteran replacement, just overlapping for one year when our internal options haven't quite arrived at the MLB doorstep yet. Even with a FA signing, I expect there will still be no shortage of chaff for a fast-rising internal option to force out with a good performance.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    He was saying "no way" to drafting that specific player (Balbino Fuenmayor, who I think deserves consideration based on his name alone ).
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