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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    In case my above posts weren't clear, the existence of this thread is absolutely baffling to me. Jeff Samardzija just got a 5/90 deal, running through his age 35 season, after coming off a much worse season than Shields in 2015. JA Happ just got 3/36, also through age 35, after being given away as a $2 mil salary dump in July. Coming off a similar ERA+, Ervin Santana got $55 mil guaranteed through age 35 last winter. Nolasco himself got $49 mil guaranteed two winters ago, albeit only through age 34 but with much worse career marks than even Shields' 2015 season. Shields at 3/65 through age 36 isn't perfect, but as an asset it's light years ahead of Nolasco right now.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    If over 200 innings at roughly league-average SP run prevention is the "new normal" for Shields, that's lights years ahead of the "new normal" established recently for Nolasco.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Shields may have some warning signs of decline, but Nolasco is in full-blown decline the last 2 years. There's a huge difference. Heck, even with those warning signs in 2015: - Shields topped 200 innings again for the 9th consecutive season -- Nolasco has only reach that level twice - Shields still posted near MLB SP average run prevention in those innings too (Shields ERA- of 105, MLB SP average of 103-), 8 of 9 seasons at that level or better -- Nolasco again has only posted that level of run prevention twice And of course the career high K rate as you mention, which suggests maybe he's capable of adapting to later career loss in stuff?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Or trading Shields again anytime from 2016-2018. Shields is simply a much better asset right now than Nolasco, and it's not even close. You can't wave away the massive difference in health and performance over the last 2 years, much less performance over their whole careers, just because Shields is one year older, signed one year longer, at a higher AAV.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    O'Day was widely noted to be the at the top of the FA reliever crop this winter, and rightfully so. And 4 years was the clincher there, apparently other bids were 3 years. The bigger surprise to me was Madson at 3/22. I suspect most other lesser (but still good) FA relievers will still only get around 3 years, and probably well within a reasonable Twins budget ($15-18 mil). That said, I don't mind Fien at his price, but I would like to see some change in our bullpen approach, and soon.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Young already signed with Boston.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. I do think we have too many relievers on the roster, without enough immediate trusted set up guys at the top, though. I don't mind Fien but I strongly suspect the Twins are viewing him as better and more important than most posters here. I wouldn't be surprised if they rely on Fien near the top of the pen, and fill in with another veteran or two like Cotts, Rodney, Boyer, etc. Which almost guarantees May will be needed again regardless of whether he might be better deployed starting, we may be stuck with a lot of shaky veteran arms we are reluctant to cut, we will have little opportunity to evaluate rookies before the trade deadline, etc. And this isn't just pessimism, this is what happened in 2015. I am looking for a break from the 2015 strategy, and nontendering Fien would have represented that. Although the bigger potential break could be in what FA they might add -- haven't heard them connected to any good ones yet, so we will see..
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually I believe Pryor and Oliveros were removed from the 40-man during spring training, prior to opening day. And our 2015 bullpen approach probably shouldn't be repeated in 2016...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not necessarily easy to trade, if he is a "meh" performer. See Duensing, Brian. It might be August where someone is desperate for a waiver trade pickup.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins have 14 relievers (or potential relievers) on their full 40-man roster right now: Perkins Jepsen Tonkin Fien Pressly Darnell O'Rourke Meyer Graham Rogers Dean Chargois Melotakis You can make a case that at least 6, and as many as 8 or 9, of these guys have little else to prove in AAA (as relievers anyway). Not to mention they have at least 7 starters, so two of these 4 are probably in play for bullpen duty as well: May Milone Nolasco Duffey (As well as Burdi and Reed who will in theory be in consideration, if not in spring training, then early in the season.) I don't mind Fien, but I really don't see how he fits in here without blocking someone, either someone younger who is deserving of an opportunity or better yet a FA signing that would immediately fit in at the top with Perkins and Jepsen. I know we're a ways out of spring training yet, but I don't see trade/waiver candidates here either other than Tonkin and Milone. In a vacuum, committing to Fien isn't bad, but with this roster and bullpen, it looks questionable.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    But why lock in your 5th pen option with a (mostly) guaranteed deal and 40-man roster spot now? Seems like it would be a better choice to lock in another potential top bullpen option (any Jepsen-like FA reliever), and then fill in 5th spot on the depth chart with a minor league invite like Boyer, or the most ready rookie, etc.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Does past evidence suggest this is likely? Unless a veteran totally implodes like Stauffer or Marquis, they don't seem to cut them. Fien does have an option remaining which is unusual but I am not sure they'd be willing to use it.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    This doesn't really describe the Twins at the winter meetings, historically, does it? I've never gotten the impression that we are subject to any greater number or degree of rumors during the winter meetings than at any other time (right now, Cotts, Soria, etc.). In fact, the lack of Twins rumors has seemed tougher for Twins fans (at least this Twins fan ). It would be interesting to go back and look at previous winter meetings and the rumors reporting during that time.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, I did some research and the Twins could DFA Dean or any of the other recent 40-man additions, theoretically. They are called "Draft-Excluded Players" and the only restriction on them right now is that they can't be outrighted (removed from the 40-man but kept in the org) until 20 days before the season (roughly March 15, 2016). They can still be released, traded, or even non-tendered (as was the case with the Orioles and Eddie Gamboa in 2013). http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3517 Of course, in practice it rarely happens, because why would you protect a player from Rule 5, but then be willing to make him a free agent shortly thereafter? But there is no rule preventing the Twins from DFA'ing Dean if they need a spot and rank him below the other 39 guys on the roster.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Where are these rumors? MLBTR has never connected Shields to the Twins, at least not since before the Ervin Santana signing last winter: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/james-shields I think most of those "rumors" are fan creativity.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Same arguments could have (and probably were) made about Duensing in recent seasons. Yet there he was, locked into a roster spot while our bullpen of placeholders helped sink our 2015 season...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    He was? Huh, I could have sworn we had a pretty lousy bullpen the past 5 years, but I guess if we had a good closer and Fien was "fine" in the 8th inning.... And if May is needed to start, and Tonkin, Meyer, Chargois, Burdi, Reed, and others fail to advance, as they did in 2015, what then? I think the Twins should be trying to improve the bullpen today, not putting it off again. I guess I don't care if Fien is part of the back end bullpen mix right now, but we need help at the top. We need to sign or acquire someone better than Fien this winter.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, it is. http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/12/01/wait-what-is-the-non-tender-deadline-again/ Fien is still under team control (less than 6 years service time). He can't elect free agency unless we outright him off the 40-man roster at this point.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe MLBTR is actually pretty accurate. For the most part, they are just collecting reports from elsewhere, but they seem to find responsible sources (and their contract value predictions are darn good). This particular report was from Oakland's local beat writer and simply stated that Valencia and Lawrie are generating trade interest, without any commentary about the level of return they could command, which is a rather uncontroversial statement, I think. (And for the record, the source also said Lawrie is "considered the better bet to be traded" which implies Valencia's trade return would be lower, another opinion that is difficult to dispute.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I wouldn't force a signing of a LHP for this reason. If they like Sipp or Bastardo, great, but if they prefer Lowe or Madson, I've got no problem. Of course, I'd also be more aggressive in deploying O'Rourke and/or Rogers in MLB too.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Thornton was part of Seth's proposed bullpen plan, but Doogie Wolfson reported the Twins were not interested in him: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/al-central-notes-thornton-rondon-tribe-tigers.html
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    But I am pretty sure you can unload Milone and his salary in spring training, or early in the season, or basically whenever you need to. So you can still have your 5th starter competition, look to call up Berrios early, etc, and Milone's lack of options really shouldn't matter. If Milone sticks around the rotation longer than that and blocks anyone, I suspect it would be the effect of locking May into the pen rather than the cause. Which would be bad too, but again, the root cause of that situation, or first domino if you will, would be locking up mediocre relievers like Fien and Cotts and passing on real relief upgrades in the FA market.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Rzepczynski is projected to make $3 mil in arbitration, and wasn't that good against LHB last season (.255/.321/.340). He's better than Duensing, but having him on the roster presents the same issues as having Duensing, Fien, Boyer, Cotts, Thornton, etc. -- you're locking in mediocrity to fill a less important role, when you really need to add another quality arm capable of filling a more important role if needed (i.e. Jepsen, Sipp, Bastardo, etc.).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, Milone is out of options, and with over 3 years service time, he can now refuse an outright assignment to AAA even if he clears waivers (although maybe that's what you wish was different "in a perfect world"). I know I've made this non-tender argument about Fien, but I'm not quite sure I'd extend it to Milone yet. We're not likely to sign or acquire another SP this winter, so Milone's presence isn't preventing that, and while his value isn't high, I think he's easily tradeable as a LHSP making only $4.5 mil coming off a 106 ERA+, should we need to move him. (And I would be looking at trading a starter, especially if we can sign a reliever and give May another shot in the rotation.) I fear Fien, like Duensing before him, might simply be untradeable for awhile.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    By BA, Garza only reached #21. Liriano did indeed rocket to #6.
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