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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Then why do power arms on the free agent market often sign for as little as 2/11 (Mark Lowe)? Even Andrew Miller, arguably one of the best in the league, only signed for 4/36. It's obviously nice to have power bullpen arms, and they can help you win games, but it's not clear teams should be investing high draft picks in them, particularly with the Twins success rate in that department so far. Among the oft-cited Royals pen, none of them were drafted high as exclusive relievers.
  2. But he keeps his MLB salary and benefits that whole time. Obviously they'd rather just stick on one team's roster, but when that's not an option, I suspect the players prefer the DFA carousel to being outrighted immediately to AAA. After the Twins waived him in 2013, Alex Burnett managed to get over 2 more months on 40-man rosters, including some days of MLB service too. Not bad for a guy who was out of affiliated ball a few months later anyway.
  3. True, I misspoke about electing free agency. Of course, the player can both refuse the assignment AND not elect free agency, which is overwhelming the most common approach taken by MLB veterans in such situations: Nolasco will either stay on the Twins roster, get traded to another team's roster, or get released.
  4. Few openings are ever "genuine" when you are dealing with the quality of players sent through waivers.
  5. Nolasco refusing a minor league assignment and electing free agency would be the equivalent of releasing him, we would still owe him his full salary.
  6. I think if Pressly stayed healthy, there's a decent chance we wouldn't have ponied up to add Jepsen, so I'm not sure it was much of a factor. Also, while generally effective, he still wasn't seeing many high-leverage spots, and was only sporting a 7.2 K/9 rate, a 3.9 BB/9, etc. He still profiles as more of a middle to back end reliever, which the Twins have no shortage of; he's got an option remaining, and I suspect we may use it.
  7. I don't know if it is likely we will have another suspension and injury the first week of the season, though. The 2014 rotation lasted over a month, and after Deduno subbed for an epically bad Pelfrey, there were no other changes until almost midseason. Even in 2013, with a lot of marginal starters, the rotation was set for almost the first two months, save for Hendriks taking Diamond's first few turns after offseason surgery. In 2012, the opening rotation didn't see much change either until Liriano got demoted to the pen in mid-May.
  8. Not sure it's that big of a deal, a player can only be outrighted once without their consent anyway. If it happens to Achter, he will get to elect free agency after 2016 unless he is added back before then, regardless of where he lands on the merry go round. Also not sure it is good for the player. By the time he would be returned to the Twins, he may be further down the depth chart here than in Philly. And any attempt to disincentive a team from claiming him is bad (and removing the potential for outrighting would do just that). I think Achter would rather stay on a 40-man roster and get those benefits as long as possible, regardless of how many hats he has to wear in the process.
  9. Pretty sure the Twins don't need or want anything to do with contraction in the Twins hall of fame -- that was a self-created mess. As was much of the 1990s malaise (Don Beaver, Dave St Peter's cancer kid ad). We are all glad that the 2001-2002 teams put most of that nonsense in the rear view mirror, but the Twins organization bringing it up as some sort of hurdle they overcame would be the height of hypocrisy.
  10. This it? http://news.yahoo.com/mlb-lobby-trades-disappear-winter-meetings-014700664--spt.html
  11. Nobody is taking on 4 marginal 40-man guys in one trade, especially two out of options (Guerra and Pinto).
  12. I don't think McGee was really that available in July. The Rays were trying to move Jepsen, who was older, more expensive, had less team control remaining, and wasn't left-handed. I suspect the McGee price then is similar to the price now (high).
  13. What year do you think the winter meetings saw much bigger moves? I am curious, might be fun to read about.
  14. Aguilera was actually re-signed to be a starting pitcher. The others you list pitched multiple seasons for the Twins, but actually originally signed here as minor league free agents. Swindell: https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1683&dat=19961219&id=E6UaAAAAIBAJ&sjid=Bi4EAAAAIBAJ&pg=2808,3479678&hl=en Bob Wells: http://apple.ease.lsoft.com/scripts/wa-PLUTO.exe?A2=ind9901&L=TWINS&P=28688 And Mulholland was on a minor league deal with Seattle, and "purchased" by the Twins on April 2, 2004: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mulhote01.shtml I also found no record of Bob Wells ever being traded. I suspect he re-signed for 2 years (2000-2001), and did find this record of an additional year extension being signed: http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=min&year=2001&month=2 So I think the original claim stands.
  15. We're not really "linked" to McGee. There are general reports of trade discussions about him, but no one knows the teams involved. MLBTR then lists the Twins as "known to be looking for left-handed relief help" and not likely "to make a play for top-of-the-market free agent lefties." http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/rays-jake-mcgee-trade.html From the source of the rumor, it sounds like the Twins would be competing against the Dodgers at least for McGee's services...
  16. I don't know, there seemed to plenty of moves this week, even some pretty big ones. A quick scan of MLBTR shows 21 different teams making MLB trades or signings over the 3 days of the winter meetings, and that's not counting a few that made moves just before. A lot of relievers came off the board too.
  17. I don't think it's likely, but that's the hypothetical posed by this thread. Simply put: if you release Nolasco, you get an open roster spot. If you make this hypothetical trade instead, you get Shields on effectively a 3/40 contract with a 4th year $14 mil option ($16 mil minus a $2 mil buyout I already included in the 3/40). I don't think you have to be particularly high on Shields to find the latter preferable to the former. (And if Shields opts out after 1 year, you actually save $4 mil from the trade, plus get a season of presumably plus pitching from Shields.) Of course, I agree that a straight-up trade like this is highly unlikely, which is all the more evidence this hypothetical favors the Twins greatly.
  18. RHP Craig Stammen, you mean? Probably not a bad target, although he hasn't pitched since surgery in April, and saw a drop in K rate and effectiveness prior to that in 2014. He's supposed to be 100% but maybe he takes a little time to get re-acclimated. He's also just shy of 6 years service so he'd be a free agent again after 2016 unless you extended him (no team control).
  19. It does look pretty bad, although at this point, Brett Lawrie's last two arbitration seasons weren't going to make much of a difference either way. Saving ~$10 mil might actually help the ledger for Oakland, at this point, more than playing Lawrie would have. The A's also still have Franklin Barreto from the deal, SS prospect, all the way up to #18 on MLB.com's midseason top 100 update (just ahead of Berrios at the time). It's extremely unlikely to ever be a win for Oakland or even a wash, but Barreto could save it from historical ignominy.
  20. Exactly. It could effectively be getting Shields for 3/40 as a consolation prize for releasing Nolasco. Shields and his 2015 season are not perfect, but he's easily still an attractive asset at 3/40 which is why there is no way in heck that San Diego would agree to this deal, there are far better ways to acquire reclamation projects (and probably far better reclamation projects to target than Nolasco).
  21. Yeah, but a return greater than that still doesn't mean it would be a good return, or a trade worth making. I imagine the Reds are feeling this on the Frazier market too.
  22. True, and Oakland has a tendency to force trades rather than seek max value, but I still think this speaks to the demand side of the 3B market.
  23. Link to this year's results: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/2015-rule-5-draft-results.html
  24. Wow, 5 teams made two Rule 5 selections. Has that ever happened before? Looking at the results, I see 2 teams did that in 2012, and 4 in 2010: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results
  25. A little, although it's probably like the R.A. Dickey situation -- with MLB experience, there was some competition for his services on a minor league deal. One team decided to use a 40-man roster spot for a few months to try getting that minor league deal for themselves (assuming they either work out a minor trade or send him back in spring training).
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